Will Ovechkin break the career goals scored record?
craig44
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To start, I am not a hockey guy, and do not know a lot about the game. but was listening to the radio and the guys were discussing this topic.
Ovechkin is in his age 37 season and is 114 Goals behind Gretzky. He scored 50 last season.
To all the Hockey guys out there, is it realistic that Alex can make it to 895? it seems he will certainly make it to the number 2 spot this season. how quickly will his skills regress now that he is in his late 30s?
I think he does it.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
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It's a shame he missed a season due to covid, it will be close, will he hang around just to do it if he is a part time player is the question
Hopefully not.
He’s not even close to Bossy and Lemieux in goals per game.
Mario was the greatest goal scorer ever. Bossy just stood 5-10 feet from the net and waited. Mario did it on his own.
https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/records/nhl-players-all-time-goals-per-game-leaders.html
I think if he scores another 40-50 this season, he will hang around long enough to break the record. Seems like it would be the equivalent of the HR record in baseball.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
wasnt the 80s a much better goal-scoring environment?
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Goaltending talent was horrible in the NHL from 1978-1989.
Just look at all the HOF goalie rookie cards from 1964-1973 as opposed to 1974-1985..
Ahhh, ok. That makes sense. I knew I had heard about that era being different. How does that figure in when looking at Goal scorers? Is it similar to high and low scoring environments in baseball? Is hockey going through an era like the 1960s in baseball right now? Were the 80s considered like the 20s and 30s in baseball?
Would considering Era take some of the "shine" off from Gretzky and Lemieux and add some to Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin?
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
No. Gretzky had great skills and very bad goalies during his prime.
Mario had phenomenal goal scoring skill and faced better goalies during his prime.
Mario was the greatest goal scorer ever. He is unmatched.
If he scores 35+ goals this season then he will end up breaking the record even if he has to stay in the league until his early 40s.
Not sure what Bossy & Lemieux goals per game averages have to do with breaking the career goals record. The record is about maintaining performance over a long period of time. There is a skill to aging gracefully and still playing at a high level in your 30s. As we have seen, not all hockey players can do that which diminishes their legacies.
Robb
Lemieux battled cancer.
Gretzky and #8 never hit or played physically, nor did Brett Hull.
Hull, Ovie, and Bossy played their entire career away from the corners and boards. They waited in the slot until someone fed them.
Lemieux, Gretzky, and Orr were magicians.
Ovie was not. Just a cannon that stood still waiting to be fired.
I wonder how our Hockey experts think players like Ovechkin, McDavid, Crosby etc would have performed back in the 80s period when goaltending was much weaker?
I am far from a Hockey expert, but it seems their goal/assist totals would be elevated.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Wait, Ovie doesn't hit or play physical? Do you even watch modern hockey or is it all black & white reruns from the past?
Robb
Clearly he doesn't watch any Washington games or he wouldn't say something so obviously incorrect.
And, yes, barring a career-ending injury, Ovechkin will break the record.
Yes he does compared to Gretzky.
Compared to Gordie or Bobbyhe does not.
Lindros and LeClair were both big physical guys, but John did not play physical enough.
Research the NHL hits leaders and you’ll understand
He averages 2.5 (basically) hits a game. It's a new stat but he's fourth all-time ahead of noted physical players like Milan Lucic. He's absolutely a physical player and not just in comparison to Gretzky.
So I guess it is confirmed, goldenage hasn't watched hockey since the 90s.
Robb
of course the real question is will Ovechkin break the record while being clean? The answer to that is a hard no.
that old-timer is correct, however. Lemieux is best of that lot. The difference in comparing Ovechkin and Lemieux (or Gretzky or McJesus or Elbows Howe) is Ovechkin isn't creating his opportunities the majority of the time. Of all the stats that need to be reanalyzed over the years, or at least of this dead-puck era (1994-present), is the percentage of goals scored from the one-timer (and from shot-deflections too). That's where Ovechkin scores most of his goals from. Thus he needs someone else (a playmaker) to score the majority of his goals.
In his case, Nick Backstrom, one of the better passers of the last 20 years, and an unheralded defensive center who despite being smallish, wins a lot of puck battles. So he's out there doing the grunt work, digging on the half-walls, and then setting up Ovechkin who often does little more than setup shop on the left circle waiting for one-timers just like Brett Hull. That's what Ovechkin is. Brett Hull with a hit count. They both are/were terrible defenders, and they both are mediocre passers. He's been incredibly fortunate with the offensive talent Washington has deployed over these last 20 years (Kuznetsov, Semin, Mike Green, Carlson, Oshie) etc.
Now you can argue that one-timers are a difficult feat to pull off and sure, they are. They are the most difficult shot to put on net. It's a skill, but there's a reason why when you separate goals scored off the rush ie barreling in on net, the hockey equivalent of a fast break, the majority of goals scored in the NHL today, and over the last 10 years, are off of one-timers (Ovi & Stamkos score the majority off of one-timers) and shot tips/deflections and rebounds. The latter is where guys like Crosby and the Joe Pavelskis score most of their goals, and that's because goaltending has never been better. Thinking that goalies were better in the 70's, 80's and 90's is insane. Even if Hasek and Roy are probably two of the best ever, the majority would be retrained today. All of these guys play percentage goal. Meaning they're taught to cut down angles as opposed to reading plays and using athleticism and whatnot. No one does that anymore. It's all reading and cutting down angles and positioning. That's why the majority of them are 6'3 or taller now. Goal scorers have a sliver here and there under the pads so the best way to score is to beat them moving side to side (from a one-timer), or redirecting a puck via shot tip/deflection).
Go find a game from 1991 and then watch a game tonight. You don't see goalies flailing around today (unless it's a broken play, goal-mouth scramble, or someone attempting a wrap-around. You don't see any two-pad stacks going on. That's because goalies are rarely out of position. If someone asked you who is the most athletic goalie right now, you probably would have no idea in the way the previous era's answer was - oh, Hasek, definitely. Not even close. It's Fleury, but no one really knows that because it's never really on display.
This is why what Auston Matthews and Draisaitl are doing in this era, scoring off of wrist shots when no one really does anymore, is way more impressive to me than what Ovechkin has ever done. Ovechki's most impressive feat is his durability...of course he has had a lot of chemical help in that dept, however.
it's not just the vastly superior goaltending today, it's the defensive systems and most every forward is expected to play 200 feet. Not everyone does, at least competently, but teams in the 80's were lucky to have one checking line, a 4th line of goons, and then two offensive lines in the top 6. You look at teams that have won in the last decade, the Blackhawks had two of the top defensive forwards on their 1st line in Toews and Hossa so they had two checking lines + one of the best ice-tilters (rarely started more than 25% of his zone starts in the offensive end, yet always had a + Corsi rating) in Marcus Kruger on their 4th line). The Kings had Kopitar, Brown and Justin Williams - all plus defenders...Kopitar being a Selke candidate every year on their 1st line in addition to a 3rd line/checking line. No team in the 70's to the mid 90's had anything like that until the Devils of the mid-90's (though they never really had true high end offensive talent) and Stars of the late 90's.
Gretzky never played any defense, and guys like Yzerman never did either, until Scotty Bowman arrived in Detroit and then tried to get Ken Holland to trade him because Federov was better and actually played defense. Gretzky has said countless times, Crosby and McDavid, among others, are better than he ever was. Can't compare those eras. It's 1994 to present, and then everything before that was weird in some fashion or another. Like putting all 6 of the original expansion teams in the same conference.
Ask todays player to skate with these
Plus shoot with sticks that are five pounds heavier and have no curve
Talk to guys like Denis Potvin who played against Gretzky and Orr and they say the same thing Holt says, who played with and against #4, and against #99.
I agree with Scotty Bowman that Lemieux comes ahead of Gretzky.
oh gosh, oh no, someone just said Bobby Orr.
I think that is a swear word here almost to the level of George Brett!!!!!!
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.