Restoration Recommended PCGS Sticker : ODDS OF UPGRADE ?

abdelmeg1

Anybody has any idea (or data) on the odds of an upgrade, when you submit a (PRE-1933) gold coin for Restoration, based on PCGS recommendation for that specific coin ?

MFeld

Realistically, no one can answer your question, as it depends on that particular coin and how it looks after the restoration. If the last 20 restoration coins in a row failed, but yours merits an upgrade, the previous 20 failures are irrelevant. Likewise, if the previous 20 upgraded, but yours is undeserving, those successes don’t mean a thing.

abdelmeg1

@MFeld said:
Realistically, no one can answer your question, as it depends on that particular coin and how it looks after the restoration. If the last 20 restoration coins in a row failed, but yours merits an upgrade, the previous 20 failures are irrelevant. Likewise, if the previous 20 upgraded, but yours is undeserving, those successes don’t mean a thing.

Thank you for your comment. But I am not asking about a specific coin. I am asking about statistical data. True, that statistical data do not mean anything for 1 particular coin (That is always true of statistics), but it gives you an idea about your ODDS of upgrade. This is a valid statistical concept. For example, if the odds of dying from a certain disease is 5% without a vaccine and 1% with a vaccine, then a statement can be made that this vaccine lowers mortality by 80%. Now, those numbers do not mean a thing if you (or I) die from that disease despite being vaccinated (for us, the mortality rate of that disease is 100%, which obviously is not true for the larger population). SO, the statistical numbers still mean a whole lot for the general population. Back to the coin business, if you (and I regard your knowledge and expertise very HIGHLY), if you tell me that the odds of upgrade with PCGS restoration for gold coins in older holders (which may be different from NGC restoration, or silver or copper coins, etc.) are 5% on average, that is very different than if you tell me that it is 80%. And I totally agree with you, that whether it is 5% or 80%, for 1 particular coin, it does not mean anything. But, the fact is that, from a statistical point of view it is VERY IMPORTANT, for example if somebody has 100 coins that were recommended for restoration.

I am not sure if the data exist, I was just wondering, if somebody with your knowledge and expertise in numismatics know or have seen any helpful data. Thank you.

TomB

Statistics, and statistical arguments aside, we don't have access to that data and any answer, other than admitting that, is akin to guessing how many fairies can dance on the head of a pin.

MFeld

@abdelmeg1 said:

@MFeld said:
Realistically, no one can answer your question, as it depends on that particular coin and how it looks after the restoration. If the last 20 restoration coins in a row failed, but yours merits an upgrade, the previous 20 failures are irrelevant. Likewise, if the previous 20 upgraded, but yours is undeserving, those successes don’t mean a thing.

Thank you for your comment. But I am not asking about a specific coin. I am asking about statistical data. True, that statistical data do not mean anything for 1 particular coin (That is always true of statistics), but it gives you an idea about your ODDS of upgrade. This is a valid statistical concept. For example, if the odds of dying from a certain disease is 5% without a vaccine and 1% with a vaccine, then a statement can be made that this vaccine lowers mortality by 80%. Now, those numbers do not mean a thing if you (or I) die from that disease despite being vaccinated (for us, the mortality rate of that disease is 100%, which obviously is not true for the larger population). SO, the statistical numbers still mean a whole lot for the general population. Back to the coin business, if you (and I regard your knowledge and expertise very HIGHLY), if you tell me that the odds of upgrade with PCGS restoration for gold coins in older holders (which may be different from NGC restoration, or silver or copper coins, etc.) are 5% on average, that is very different than if you tell me that it is 80%. And I totally agree with you, that whether it is 5% or 80%, for 1 particular coin, it does not mean anything. But, the fact is that, from a statistical point of view it is VERY IMPORTANT, for example if somebody has 100 coins that were recommended for restoration.

I am not sure if the data exist, I was just wondering, if somebody with your knowledge and expertise in numismatics know or have seen any helpful data. Thank you.

I’m sorry, I don’t have or know of any such data.

coinkat

It is not about the odds... it is about the coin. The look of a coin is something that just does not translate into odds of success in terms of how it might grade after it has been enhanced for the sole purpose of trying to obtain a higher grade. Coins that go through a restoration process often have that look of withstanding that restoration which may not translate into a coin that others will like and it may not create ultimate outcome financially. Once a coin has been restored... well... you just can't take a mulligan... as this is not golf. If you have a coin and do not like it... sell it and buy one that you do like.

abdelmeg1

@TomB said:
Statistics, and statistical arguments aside, we don't have access to that data and any answer, other than admitting that, is akin to guessing how many fairies can dance on the head of a pin.

Thank you for the comment.

Then, if I understand you correctly: If PCGS recommends a restoration for a pre-1933 gold coin, with that sticker they have putting on a large number of gold coins in old PCGS holders (OGH and Rattlers) submitted for Reconsideration, which states that PCGS recommends restoration to improve the appearance of the coin (which already look great with amazing deep orange color / toning), then you are only sure of 2 things: 1. you will lose the old holder. 2. you will pay PCGS grading fee + 3% of the PCGS price guide for that coin. And that for a coin that looks fantastic with deep orange gold toning color in an OGH or a rattler holder ! Correct ?

Some people recommended sending such coins to CAC in their old original holders. Any opinion ?

MFeld

Are you able to post clear pictures of the coin?

It’s possible that what you see as “…the coin which already look great with amazing deep orange color / toning” looked different to PCGS. I’m only speculating, here…perhaps they saw haze, evidence of putty, evidence of color enhancement, etc. And they thought they could safely remove whatever they detected.

coinkat

If you are seeking opinions from folks here... How about being more transparent?

It is about the coin... the coin matters... not the odds and all the other crap. Suggesting alternatives as to opinions as to the holder and whether CAC is the better option is merely a guess predicated on zero information. What generation holder are we looking at here?

I doubt there will be opinions without a baseline of information to offer an opinion. I think we are done here.

djm

If your coin has any of the issues that @MFeld referenced above, it is highly unlikely that the coin will sticker at CAC.

abdelmeg1

@coinkat said:
It is not about the odds... it is about the coin. The look of a coin is something that just does not translate into odds of success in terms of how it might grade after it has been enhanced for the sole purpose of trying to obtain a higher grade. Coins that go through a restoration process often have that look of withstanding that restoration which may not translate into a coin that others will like and it may not create ultimate outcome financially. Once a coin has been restored... well... you just can't take a mulligan... as this is not golf. If you have a coin and do not like it... sell it and buy one that you do like.

Actually, it is the opposite. To me, the coins (all in pre1933 gold in OGH) which were submitted for Reconsideration, and that PCGS recommended Restoration for, look fantastic with deep orange gold color / toning and a semi PL look. They actually look much better than the coins that PCGS upgraded. I honestly do not think that restoration will improve their appearance (quite the opposite, they may look washed up yellow after restoration). Some people recommended sending to CAC in their old holders.

coinkat

Done here.

abdelmeg1

@MFeld said:
Are you able to post clear pictures of the coin?

It’s possible that what you see as “…the coin which already look great with amazing deep orange color / toning” looked different to PCGS. I’m only speculating, here…perhaps they saw haze, evidence of putty, evidence of color enhancement, etc. And they thought they could safely remove whatever they detected.

Mark, in your opinion, what do you think would have happened if such coin was originally submitted for a REGRADE ? So, PCGS cracks the coin out, it goes for grading, now what happens ?

abdelmeg1

@djm said:
If your coin has any of the issues that @MFeld referenced above, it is highly unlikely that the coin will sticker at CAC.

So, CAC becomes a way to verify that ?

djm

@abdelmeg1 said:

@djm said:
If your coin has any of the issues that @MFeld referenced above, it is highly unlikely that the coin will sticker at CAC.

So, CAC becomes a way to verify that ?

Yes, if you were to submit the coin to CAC, they would include a note as to why the coin failed to meet their standards. Posting a good picture of both sides of the coin would give you the answer without any costs or delays.

If you like the coin as is, why do anything more with it?

MFeld

@abdelmeg1 said:

@MFeld said:
Are you able to post clear pictures of the coin?

It’s possible that what you see as “…the coin which already look great with amazing deep orange color / toning” looked different to PCGS. I’m only speculating, here…perhaps they saw haze, evidence of putty, evidence of color enhancement, etc. And they thought they could safely remove whatever they detected.

Mark, in your opinion, what do you think would have happened if such coin was originally submitted for a REGRADE ? So, PCGS cracks the coin out, it goes for grading, now what happens ?

I really don’t know, as I think it would depend upon the type and extent of the issue. But - and I’m not being facetious - maybe they’d recommend restoration? I prefer not to speculate further, especially having no idea what the coin looks like.

TomB

I've been out since my last post, but my first thought when I read pre-1933 gold in an OGH or rattler was possible putty.

winesteven

As noted, the actual coin matters, but here’s my anecdote:

I bought the below 1904 Liberty Double Eagle in October 2014 PCGS CAC on eBay for $2,150, graded MS64+ at the time. As you can see, there’s a dark horizontal line on the reverse, that was heavier/thicker at the time of purchase.

I sent it to PCGS Restoration, and that line was improved a bit, but as you can see, it’s still there. They returned it graded MS65. Even though it went to the next whole grade number and had a new cert number, when I sent it to CAC, it got it’s sticker back.

I then sent it back to PCGS via Reconsideration, and the grade was raised to its present MS65+. I then got the CAC back again automatically, since the whole grade number was unchanged, as was the cert number on the MS65.

I suggest you NOT use this example as a guide, as I believe this is very atypical!

Steve