Juan Soto
perkdog
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Can someone explain to me why Juan Soto is being touted as once in generation talent??
The kid is good but his numbers are not “Once in a Generation” good in my opinion
I’m not a modern MLB numbers guy, I’m a BA, HR type of guy. Not saying it’s right but that’s just my novice approach
I just keep reading about Soto and am curious what you MLB guys think
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I've read a few articles where they say he is the next Ted Williams and/or he has an uncanny ability to both identify pitches and psychologically own pitchers.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/.amp/mlb/2022/04/13/juan-soto-hitting-genius-daily-cover
Piggy backing on what thisistheshow just mentioned, I will attest as a Braves fan who has watched Juan many many times during his young career, that he IS the real deal. I am so glad he is out of our division now! As to what Perkdog mentioned about the numbers, sometimes these can be deceiving. Juan is on a short list of guys you just don't want to face when a game is in the balance. And I would absolutely attest that he owns many pitchers psychologically. Watch some of his at bats, he is a master of the stare down with pitchers...sometimes it's subtle what he does, not necessarily after an inside brush back pitch either. At times he will just step out in between pitches and send that stare right into that pitchers psyche and it sends a definite message. Terrific pick up by the Padres. Watch out Dodgers!
They like him because he is basically a better version of Joey Votto. He was on a crazy hot streak during the condensed COVID year in 2020 at age 21, which got everyone talking about how amazing he was going to be without caveating things with 'it was less than 50 games'.
Unfortunately, he hasn't been quite as good since 2020. Still very good especially for his age. If he follows a typical trajectory for MLB players in their early 20s and improves over the next 5-7 years, he will be a top 5 player in baseball and in the MVP conversation every year.
That said, his first 5 years are nothing compared to Trout or other generational talents. People give him way too much credit for being on a 47 game hot streak during the COVID shortened season, IMO.
Lastly, if you don't love walks, he really isn't that special at the plate at the moment. I think he could be a 40+ HR guy, once he finds his grove.
As for the SI article, geniuses don't hit .240 for half a season. Hopefully the first half of the season was just a bump in the road for him on a long and successful career.
Robb
Perk,
I would say he is not, or should not be, billed as a once in a generation player. His lifetime OPS+ of 160 is absolutely fantastic and he is outstanding. Fernando Tatis also sits at 160, but Tatis is a shortstop and is good at it, while Soto is just a run of the mill rightfielder. So at minimum, he is 'twice a generation player' right there.
Vlad JR took two years to find his eliteness and thus his lifetime OPS+ is only 138, but his last two years he is at 158, and he is still only 23 years old. Vlad and Soto would be a coin flip right now on who most GM's would to take for the next three years....with Vlad having more room to grow offensively.
I personally would take Vlad Jr. going forward as his power advantage tips the edge for my preference between two basically equal offensive resumes.
So 'thrice a generation player' may be more in line.
Yordan Alvarez also sits at 163 lifetime OPS+, and he may have more offensive upside than Soto too.
Aaron Judge currently sits at 157 lifetime. He is quite a bit older though so future upside is nowhere near the guys listed above. But still, he is just as good offensively as Soto, and probably a little bitter defensively.
His lower RBI total is partly due to him walking a lot, but also in part that he has batted second too.
This year his lineup is awful, but Soto himself has also been awful with hitting only .174 with runners in scoring position, so he does own some blame there for low RBI totals this year.
He walks a lot, also has a nice SLG.
More on this topic,
If I am buying cards as an investment, then of all the young players today, I personally would put my money in Vlad Jr. What others do with their money is up to them.
Vlad will provide a combination of elite modern stats as well as elite traditional stats. This is important, because as Perkdog noted above, he himself doesn't see the allure in Juan Soto because Soto does not have the sexy HR/RBI totals, and there are a lot of fans who also have this view.
There are an equally growing number of fans who do see the allure in WAR and all the other modern measurements such as OPS+. So I would want a guy that will excite both of those factions.
The offensive portion of WAR is what grabs the attention though and in real baseball sense is also the most reliable aspect.
Vlad already has a 48 HR season in the books and he hit .300 that year too. I don't know if 48 will be a career high and it very well could be, but he is a legit 40 homer per year type of player who will also hit around .300. He also had a .400 OB% last year and led the league in OPS+.
Games played. This is what I like. Vlad plays every day. He seems to be a horse, unlike some of these other guys. Anyone can get injured, but when healthy he plays every day. He is definitely a mentally tough horse as he plays every day. Did I say he plays every day? Left handed hitters, especially in this era, tend to take more rests days. Obviously, this will help him in his quest for 500 home runs etc...
Vlad will be a free agent at age 27 in 2026. Where he signs will obviously have a big impact. I would downgrade him for his cards a little if he remains in Toronto though. Signing for any of the typical big market teams could catapult him to the stratosphere. So there is a bit of a gamble for him in that aspect.
The name. Vlad Guerrero...could be the first and only father son combo in the baseball Hall of Fame. For something like cards this has an impact that will last a long time.