Juan Soto
perkdog
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in Sports Talk
Can someone explain to me why Juan Soto is being touted as once in generation talent??
The kid is good but his numbers are not “Once in a Generation” good in my opinion
I’m not a modern MLB numbers guy, I’m a BA, HR type of guy. Not saying it’s right but that’s just my novice approach
I just keep reading about Soto and am curious what you MLB guys think
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I've read a few articles where they say he is the next Ted Williams and/or he has an uncanny ability to both identify pitches and psychologically own pitchers.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/.amp/mlb/2022/04/13/juan-soto-hitting-genius-daily-cover
Piggy backing on what thisistheshow just mentioned, I will attest as a Braves fan who has watched Juan many many times during his young career, that he IS the real deal. I am so glad he is out of our division now! As to what Perkdog mentioned about the numbers, sometimes these can be deceiving. Juan is on a short list of guys you just don't want to face when a game is in the balance. And I would absolutely attest that he owns many pitchers psychologically. Watch some of his at bats, he is a master of the stare down with pitchers...sometimes it's subtle what he does, not necessarily after an inside brush back pitch either. At times he will just step out in between pitches and send that stare right into that pitchers psyche and it sends a definite message. Terrific pick up by the Padres. Watch out Dodgers!
They like him because he is basically a better version of Joey Votto. He was on a crazy hot streak during the condensed COVID year in 2020 at age 21, which got everyone talking about how amazing he was going to be without caveating things with 'it was less than 50 games'.
Unfortunately, he hasn't been quite as good since 2020. Still very good especially for his age. If he follows a typical trajectory for MLB players in their early 20s and improves over the next 5-7 years, he will be a top 5 player in baseball and in the MVP conversation every year.
That said, his first 5 years are nothing compared to Trout or other generational talents. People give him way too much credit for being on a 47 game hot streak during the COVID shortened season, IMO.
Lastly, if you don't love walks, he really isn't that special at the plate at the moment. I think he could be a 40+ HR guy, once he finds his grove.
As for the SI article, geniuses don't hit .240 for half a season. Hopefully the first half of the season was just a bump in the road for him on a long and successful career.
Robb
Perk,
I would say he is not, or should not be, billed as a once in a generation player. His lifetime OPS+ of 160 is absolutely fantastic and he is outstanding. Fernando Tatis also sits at 160, but Tatis is a shortstop and is good at it, while Soto is just a run of the mill rightfielder. So at minimum, he is 'twice a generation player' right there.
Vlad JR took two years to find his eliteness and thus his lifetime OPS+ is only 138, but his last two years he is at 158, and he is still only 23 years old. Vlad and Soto would be a coin flip right now on who most GM's would to take for the next three years....with Vlad having more room to grow offensively.
I personally would take Vlad Jr. going forward as his power advantage tips the edge for my preference between two basically equal offensive resumes.
So 'thrice a generation player' may be more in line.
Yordan Alvarez also sits at 163 lifetime OPS+, and he may have more offensive upside than Soto too.
Aaron Judge currently sits at 157 lifetime. He is quite a bit older though so future upside is nowhere near the guys listed above. But still, he is just as good offensively as Soto, and probably a little bitter defensively.
His lower RBI total is partly due to him walking a lot, but also in part that he has batted second too.
This year his lineup is awful, but Soto himself has also been awful with hitting only .174 with runners in scoring position, so he does own some blame there for low RBI totals this year.
He walks a lot, also has a nice SLG.
More on this topic,
If I am buying cards as an investment, then of all the young players today, I personally would put my money in Vlad Jr. What others do with their money is up to them.
Vlad will provide a combination of elite modern stats as well as elite traditional stats. This is important, because as Perkdog noted above, he himself doesn't see the allure in Juan Soto because Soto does not have the sexy HR/RBI totals, and there are a lot of fans who also have this view.
There are an equally growing number of fans who do see the allure in WAR and all the other modern measurements such as OPS+. So I would want a guy that will excite both of those factions.
The offensive portion of WAR is what grabs the attention though and in real baseball sense is also the most reliable aspect.
Vlad already has a 48 HR season in the books and he hit .300 that year too. I don't know if 48 will be a career high and it very well could be, but he is a legit 40 homer per year type of player who will also hit around .300. He also had a .400 OB% last year and led the league in OPS+.
Games played. This is what I like. Vlad plays every day. He seems to be a horse, unlike some of these other guys. Anyone can get injured, but when healthy he plays every day. He is definitely a mentally tough horse as he plays every day. Did I say he plays every day? Left handed hitters, especially in this era, tend to take more rests days. Obviously, this will help him in his quest for 500 home runs etc...
Vlad will be a free agent at age 27 in 2026. Where he signs will obviously have a big impact. I would downgrade him for his cards a little if he remains in Toronto though. Signing for any of the typical big market teams could catapult him to the stratosphere. So there is a bit of a gamble for him in that aspect.
The name. Vlad Guerrero...could be the first and only father son combo in the baseball Hall of Fame. For something like cards this has an impact that will last a long time.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-juan-soto-has-been-so-un-soto-this-season-three-red-flags-behind-mets-765-million-mans-troubles/
The heaviest weight to lift is the burden of expectation.
.
I think they expected a little too much, like him showing some effort running out of the box against the Sox the other night instead of him forcing a single out of a sure double
I am sure he is pressing. He will be fine.
I know that now walks are considered super important, but I would much rather have a slugger expand the zone a bit and put up some numbers. walking to first 140 times a season is boring
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
I don't think he will compare to. his last season with the Yankees regardless
He's 26 years old and with his 4th team already. Roughly one-third of the way into this season and his stats are .243/8/21. That translates roughly to .250/25/65 for the season unless he gets extremely hot. That doesn't sound "generational" to me, it sounds pretty average in todays MLB. He strikes me as the typical guy who signed a mega-contract, but that may change.
For the money I would prefer fellow Dominican countryman Jose Ramirez with a current stat line of .304/9/24. It's nice to fly under the radar, Jose's been doing it for years now.
If you believe his age (which I dont) then his bat is something special. He is over hyped either way though. Hes always had problems with hustling even in DC, hes never been a good OFer, and even with all his walks he pretty much clogs the base paths with his lack of speed
I dunno how someone can be a once in a generation talent when hes not even the best player of his generation
I think he could be a 40+ HR guy, once he finds his groove. >
He actually was a 40 HR guy last year with the Yankees (41 in regular season plus 4 in 14 post season games). I am an American League guy so I had not seen Soto much before last year. I will say, that was a special year with Soto and Judge back to back. The hitting was great, the fielding a little scary. I really enjoyed the pure joy that he showed on a daily basis. Would love for him to still be a Yankee but not for that 14 year, $765M+ contract.
It couldn't have gone any better for him in NY with Judge and company, the Mets should have known that potentially that could have been a career year for him and the situation he was in might not ever be better
BaltimoreYankee,
I posted that comment in 2022. This is an old thread that was resurrected.
The Mets overpaid for Soto for sure. Of course, I also thought the Yankees overpaid for Judge and look how that hot take has aged lol.
Robb
Casual observer of today's MLB game.
He made a mistake leaving the NYY and hitting around Judge - no idea on the economics but was it worth it?
He hasn't sniffed batting .300 in nearly 5 years. Nice that he generally walks more than he whiffs but at .282 hitter is not "generational" in my book. It seems his .351 average in 2020 was Norm Cash-like.
I will say that the abundance of hard-throwing pitchers has tilted the game in favor of the guys on the mound.
Erik
Most of the so-called marquee players cannot carry a team. Not a knock against Aaron Judge but the Yankees have consistently had other hitters around him, so it was with Soto when he was there. Judge could probably have done quite well on any team although without the protection the Yankees can hire his stats would have slipped. That seems to be what we’re seeing with Soto.
Gotta keep the "Excitement" of the boring of 2 hour baseball games up anyway they can.
Elly De La Cruz is a lightning rod but he's stuck on a rotten team even Francona can't help out!
"When they can't find anything wrong with you, they create it!"
That is pretty much what it boils down to. If he can have four or five more years similar to last year then the contract isn't any more of a problem than any other contract given to guys these days(all of which is an overpay for a single baseball player compared to their impact on winning)
If he continues to do what he is doing this year, although I suspect he will uptick more, then the contract is a big stretch for a poor defending corner guy....but not a problem like a contract given to guys like Anthony Rendon or Kris Bryant who never play and completely stink AFTER he signed the deal.
As for the comment above from another poster about Soto getting on often and clogging the bases...that is a stretch and not accurate. That one is easy to see if it is true. For his career Soto gets on base and takes the extra basses 39.1 percent of the time. The MLB average is 41.3. So it is true he is below average in that aspect, but it isn't by a lot. Certainly not clogging the bases and certainly NOT negating his ability to get on base.
I think someone like Greg Luzinski fits that description more accurately. Luzinski extra bases taken percentage was 28.7% percent of the time compared to the league average of 45% of the time, resembling more of a station to station situation(but still not as horrible as someone might assume)
As a Dodger fan I was thankful he ended up elsewhere. 26 years old and been on 4 teams. That should tell you something!