@derryb said:
High dollar index is hurting PM prices. Weak euro is boosting dollar index. Look for no change any time soon.
this continues to hold true. Dollar index is designed to not include how much a dollar can purchase. It is simply a comparison to other major currencies all of which are having more problems than the dollar.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
A sudden rise in the euro would reflect positively with gold, but the EU is far from solving its problems. A breakup of the EU is possibly in the cards when the consequences of current policy hit (every) home in the winter. As globalization comes to a screeching halt and nationalization becomes the norm, look for EU members to want their independence to protect their own specific interests. Britain saw the writing on the wall, just a matter of time before others follow suit.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Certainly not worried about "currency baskets". Still buying gold, mostly at spot, every chance I get, and still sleeping like a baby. EU not going away, more counties will join. EZ $$$$ RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
@blitzdude said:
EU not going away, more counties will join. EZ $$$$
Oh, crud! For once I have to agree with @blitzdude
I can't stand the EU (transnational economic and social regulations etc.), but it's not going away any time soon. UK's departure passed on a lark, many many young voters approved the measure but few expected it to pass. They regret their votes now. And the withdrawal process takes years, the economies are so intertwined!
And if circumstances arise that force the EU to dissolve any time soon... well, that would signal a global financial collapse worse than anything we've seen in a century. Not sure what would happen to gold prices under those circumstances and I don't want to know. Status quo is our best hope for now.
duh, we are on the cuspice of a global financial collapse. EU will actually see it first. Money printing will once again be unrolled globally with temporary illusions of grandeur (like the last time) only to return economies to where they are now, but much worse off. Temporary central bank fixes tend to become a long term catastrophe, a reality that never is learned.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Duh? Not the erudite reaction I expect on this forum, but OK...
Define "global financial collapse."
Agreed that each passing decade exposes fundamental flaws in the global credit economy, but you have yet to elucidate the mechanics of your perceived forthcoming collapse. All I see are vague phrases from a CNN / Fox News chyron scrawl...
I see tough times ahead for many, austerity on the way for parts of EU, short recession for the US, etc etc., but I don't see any worldwide collapse. Venezuela is in bad shape, but how about Brazil? Japan? Korea? India? China? Growth is slowing, recession is likely, but no signs of a collapse.
As for military conflict in Russia/Ukraine - hugely problematic but unless/until the battle moves west, I'm not worried. Protests in Iran? Lived through it in 1979. I wish them luck. The sky is not falling. Don't let mass media scare you. They thrive on bad news.
And, once again, none of this answers OP's question...
Some people cheer for a massive economic apocalypse so they can be right about something for the first time in 50 years.
Don't let mass media scare you. They thrive on bad news.
One could reasonably argue that it is not the mass or mainstream media that is doing the scaring, but rather the smaller, caustic echo-chamber tributaries, of which many are navigated and promoted on this very forum.
Confusing "cheers" with warnings can be a critical mistake, particularly when it comes to one's long term wealth outlook.
When the weather man tells you a hurricane is coming is it a warning or simply a "cheer" to justify his job? LOL
The first step to success in financial planning is to understand the difference.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Don't let mass media scare you. They thrive on bad news.
One could reasonably argue that it is not the mass or mainstream media that is doing the scaring, but rather the smaller, caustic echo-chamber tributaries, of which many are navigated and promoted on this very forum.
Yes ... my presence here is actually a waste of time. Then again, so is yours.
I was actually hoping someone could define "cuspice"
Cuspice: When one finds themself on the cusp of a precipice.
OP here posed an interesting question. I know there's no one right answer
cohodk has observed that a rising dollar (in relative terms, compared to the "basket" of currencies used to measure the dollar's "strength") is causing the price of gold to decline in dollar terms. It needs to be noted that gold is rising in most other currencies.
Meanwhile, Martin Armstrong points out that money is coming out of Europe and into dollars - and that increased demand is causing an actual short-term shortage of dollars which makes for a "stronger" dollar. Both the European Central Bank and the Fed are creating currency faster than all get-out, so pick your poison - dollar denominated paper or precious metals.
It won't go on forever, and when it blows it won't be a question of being right once in 50 years. it will be too little, too late for most people. Que' Sera Sera.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Japan has been begging for inflation for 30 years. Now they are finally getting it. Why would they want to let go of what they tried so hard to get?
The Yen has been a global funding currency for decades. The world is awash with yen borrowed at cheap rates. The unwind of this carry-trade will/would have bigger consequences than bad US politics or a war by a paranoid egomaniac. The speed of the unwind will be the key factor. The Yen is actually more important to the currency basket than the Euro dispite its smaller weighting. Japan needs to let rates rise, but they seem unwilling to do so.
This unwind will not be the end of the world though.
The dollar continues to grow in strength relative to other currencies. Other countries are selling gold to obtain dollars. These factors have outweighed inflationary pressures for the moment, pushing PM prices lower.
Remember a few years back when there were numerous warnings here on the forum that all the money printing would lead to massive inflation and it was just another conspiracy theory?
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
@derryb said: "Remember a few years back when there were numerous warnings here on the forum that all the money printing would lead to massive inflation and it was just another conspiracy theory?"
Actually, my recollection is that board members almost universally expected inflation to pick up, with most feeling it could be significant (eg, repeat of the 1970s). Some expected much worse. Many of us, however, felt that the risk of hyperinflation was small or perhaps nil, and that pundits trying to draw parallels with Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe were way off the mark. To date, I think the views of the more moderate members of the board are being affirmed.
@Higashiyama said: @derryb said: "Remember a few years back when there were numerous warnings here on the forum that all the money printing would lead to massive inflation and it was just another conspiracy theory?"
Actually, my recollection is that board members almost universally expected inflation to pick up, with most feeling it could be significant (eg, repeat of the 1970s). Some expected much worse. Many of us, however, felt that the risk of hyperinflation was small or perhaps nil, and that pundits trying to draw parallels with Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe were way off the mark. To date, I think the views of the more moderate members of the board are being affirmed.
Referring to the few members here who support the coheynesian school of thought and believe the FED knows what it is doing, always new what it was doing and is doing a fine job. LOL.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Interesting....I believe coheynesians have been advocating for higher interest rates for a decade now. I believe that is well documented in this forum.
Also, about 18 months ago some coheynsian even posted a chart predicting 20%+ increases in prices within 12 months.
This inflation is the result of $7 Trillion dumped into an economy that was restricted from freely operating by the current and former administrations. These free handouts by both administrations was a roughly 50% increase in money supply.
We all know that increased money supply will result in inflation. Blame should be placed on #45 and #46 for dumping the cash and for the Fed for allowing itself to be beholden to politicians. This was quite evident in 2019 when the FED bowed to pressure from #45 in 2019, (J6P pays for increased prices due to tariffs, not China). The Fed needed to stay in control and not be bullied. They failed in that regard.
Not having any real ownership or oversight over the Federal Reserve allows them to enrich themselves at the expense of everyone else. They may put on a facade of trying to help the economy, but they help themselves first and everybody else second. Ultimately what they provide is central planning for the economy (like communism). But a true capitalist economy is based on decentralized planning.
@jmski52 said:
You can buy alot of senators and congressmen with an unlimited amount of money created out of thin air.
Not to mention votes!!
We the people have the ability to effect change, but we the people are weak, easily manipulated, and of poor character.
Speak for yourself. I've been threatened with banishment, censorship and deplarforming for not going along with a lot of the bs perpetrated on humanity the last couple years. Pfffft
@jmski52 said:
You can buy alot of senators and congressmen with an unlimited amount of money created out of thin air.
Not to mention votes!!
We the people have the ability to effect change, but we the people are weak, easily manipulated, and of poor character.
Speak for yourself. I've been threatened with banishment, censorship and deplarforming for not going along with a lot of the bs perpetrated on humanity the last couple years. Pfffft
Well...they do say actions speak louder than words.
“If voting made any difference, they wouldn’t let us do it.” - Mark Twain
Exactly my point. Stop voting. Nobody cast a vote. Tell "them" we ain't happy by giving them no support. Stop playing their game. Stop being their pawns.
To answer their question, it's because people aren't robots but human beings. They don't repetitively or predictively react to events or behave according to conventional belief.
Duh? Not the erudite reaction I expect on this forum, but OK...
Define "global financial collapse."
We had a global financial collapse in 2008-2009.....or should have had. It was papered over by the FED. I'll bet they
were quite surprised they could do that and it would work.
The FED handed out approx $33 TRILL in Credit Swap failure payments to the winners who couldn't be paid off by the bankrupt losers. Same comment for the $7 TRILL in mortgage backed security failures. Estimates that $40-$60 TRILL in total losses were covered by the FED back then....uhh....I mean the American Taxpayers. That was a collapse. The TBTF banks would have gone under and everyone else would have followed them. We're in the same situation this time around....only worse with wars on more fronts - possible nuclear war......an energy crisis in Europe and other parts of the industrialized world....world supply chain crisis....climate change agendas diverting the world's wealth, pandemics now on the annual schedule....a food crisis soon to get worse as Ukrainian farms cut way back in 2022.....etc. Lots worse this time around vs. 2008. The stock market has been inflated 4x-5x since then from increasing M1 money supply from $4 TRILL to $20 TRILL. At some point the FED and G7 will have to paper over this mess just like in 2008-2009 as the big banks and other major financial entities lose on their bets. Someone has to pay them out in order to keep the system afloat. At least this time around J6P savings accounts can be tapped legally to pay off TBTF bank derivative losses.
Why no real inflation in the US from 2011-2021 after all that papering-over by the FED? A lot of it was funny money, dark pool stuff. Doesn't show up on M1, M2. But this past +$16 TRILL went right on M1. As a rule the US has been the world's chief exporter of inflation. As long as all that papering and digi-money and derivatives stays overseas in other countries....less effect here. And those losing banker bets are generally paid off in US Dollars....also adding to the dollar's strength. It is the means to settle major bets between big banks and nations. And while the dollar is settling huge bank bets, gold can't get traction. A lot of this continuing settlement goes on under the radar. The world's banking system almost went down in 1998 with the LTCM failure speculating on currencies/PMs with huge leverage....papered over by the Central Banks. When the otc interest rate derivatives ever get stressed to failure, that will be 5X-10X the size of the 2008 crisis. That could be hard to paper over. A full system reset might occur.
Gold has never just followed inflation. That's a myth. Gold did quite well in the first half of the 1970's during a recession. And did well from 2000-2003 during a recession - going up 50%. And let's not forgot the recession of late 2008 - Sept 2011 when gold tripled in price. Gold responds to many things. It doesn't automatically respond opposite to the USDollar or with inflation. It does well when there is a confidence loss in governments and their ability to pay and support their currencies. It responds well to the movement of real interest rates. And with opaque otc gold derivatives to fudge the paper price of gold, the average consumer can't see what's really happening. If you want to see strong bull markets in gold check it out gold vs the Yen, EUE, SA Rand, NZD, GBP, CAD, CHF, AUD, etc. Since those other major world currencies are not typical "bet settlers" For 80-90% of the world's currencies, being in gold is a good thing....almost a mandatory for the past couple of decades.
Armstrong has some interesting 0-6 yr economic calls in this video. Most important are is suggestions on where to park your assets as the crisis worsens.
Excellent discussion and direct response to my query (when I asked @derryb to "Define global financial collapse").
Agreed that 2008 et seq. was a global financial collapse, but I still reject the idea that another collapse is imminent. I also reject the impending threat of nuclear war or global famine etc etc. We've seen all this before, the situation is problematic, but these doom and gloom attitudes are unwarranted - for now. At risk of politicizing this thread - and earning the wrath of the mods - I'll rest my argument there, but I do appreciate your intensive and well-thought discussion
@roadrunner said:
Gold has never just followed inflation. That's a myth.
Absolutely agreed. I always appreciate when a poster responds directly and thoroughly to a topic!
The 2008 "collapse" will be a "blip" compared to what's coming in 2023-2033. This is a 4th generational cycle of a larger 80-100 yr social/cultural cycle. Things are essentially out of room. The previous 3 major 80 yr "war and social upheaval" cycles were American Revolution and Constitutional Period 1773-1793.....Civil War period 1857-1877.....1929-1949 WW2 period.....and then today's 2008-2028 period. Good things for most people don't happen in these 4th - 20 yr "reset" cycles. The vast majority of people alive have no experience with one of these. It's just generational cycling....out with the old and in with the new. The system runs out of other people's money/assets and everything is stretched to the hilt where's there no other way out except to reset the system somehow. Gold/silver/currencies/bank notes all played major roles in those previous resets. Coming out the back end of the current one will be Central Bank Digitized currencies and much stricter controls. More than likely paper currencies will be called in and replaced with digi-dollars.
To make matters worse, the US stock markets have essentially peaked in 5 Elliot Waves in multiple time frames: 2020-2022, 2009-2022, 1982-2022, 1932-2022, and potentially a peak in the 120 yr stock market cycle from the late 1800's to 2022.....a 120 yr Grand Business Cycle. Corrections to cycles of that magnitude will be unfathomable to most....having only witnessed uncontrolled debt and credit expansion since 1971 (closure of the gold window). Contraction of the majority of the debt and credit will be quite the surprise to most people.
Markets tend to correct to the previous Wave 3/4 cycles of the 5 wave cycle. The Dow's last important 4th wave was the triangle formed from 2017-2020. That suggests a return to Dow 18000 at a minimum, with a lower projection of 10,000 or less. Not good. And the previous larger order wave 4 triangle was from 1998-2014. That triangle projects a low of 4,000-10,000 as well. Retracing 10-12 yrs of SM growth brings things back to 10,000 Dow. Considering the market is correcting an 80-120 yr cycle where the Dow went from approx 10 to 60 all the way to 36,484 leaves a lot of downside targets. For those with short memories, the Dow retraced from 14,200 to 6,500 during the 2008 crisis. And that was a lower order correction than what is potentially currently on the table. I hope I'm wrong. And I won't rule out one more high in the Dow from 40K to 42K as money from Europe pours in during the coming 1-2 years looking for safety. Still, at some point it's got to correct big time. The March 2020 Pandemic Spike Low at 18K Dow is still pretty fresh to everyone. That dip was the wound spring that took the Dow to 36K. It also was a left behind "marker" on where the current market should retrace to in the future. Many other markets will follow suit. The Dow has already retraced to inside the 2017-2020 wave 4 triangle which covers a lot of ground from 18K to 30K.
Markets tend to correct to the previous Wave 3/4 cycles of the 5 wave cycle. The Dow's last important 4th wave was the triangle formed from 2017-2020. That suggests a return to Dow 18000 at a minimum, with a lower projection of 10,000 or less. Not good. And the previous larger order wave 4 triangle was from 1998-2014. That triangle projects a low of 4,000-10,000 as well. Retracing 10-12 yrs of SM growth brings things back to 10,000 Dow. Considering the market is correcting an 80-120 yr cycle where the Dow went from approx 10 to 60 all the way to 36,484 leaves a lot of downside targets. For those with short memories, the Dow retraced from 14,200 to 6,500 during the 2008 crisis. And that was a lower order correction than what is potentially currently on the table. I hope I'm wrong.
I don't think you are wrong except that longer term (over many decades), I'm expecting the US stock market to retrace the entire mania back to the mid-1990's. It's not required, but it's happened regularly across history in numerous markets. If it doesn't happen in nominal prices, definitely adjusted for price changes. The excesses during the 21st century across all major asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate) dwarf anything from the past. It's not even close.
The DJIA lost about 75% adjusted for price changes from the 2/9/66 peak to whenever the low was in the late 70's early 80's. There was no mania at any point between 1966-1982. Don't remember for the S&P 500 but the Value Line Composite (which was highly followed at the time prior to widespread indexing) I believe lost 75% between 1968-1974.
By fundamentals, far worse now in every respect today than at any peak during this time or previously. The long-term fundamentals (as described in your posts) today are mediocre to terrible. It just isn't fully evident yet because we're near a market peak and it's been substantially disguised by monetary and fiscal policy.
The ECB and the Fed are buying bonds hand over fist in order to keep the dollar down and the debt market (and consequently the stock market) from imploding. In doing so, higher inflation is the primary anticipated result. It's no longer quantitative easing when they turn on the money fire hose. It's more like a massive quantitative circus extravaganza.
Gregory Mannarino is tracking the lack of liquidity in the bond market, which is about to cause a debt implosion that will dray every debt-based derivative down along with it, including the stock market. Hence the fire hose, which is what he expected albeit he expected it a bit sooner than now.
Inflation is about to get much worse. Got real metal?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
The ECB and the Fed are buying bonds hand over fist in order to keep the dollar down and the debt market (and consequently the stock market) from imploding. In doing so, higher inflation is the primary anticipated result. It's no longer quantitative easing when they turn on the money fire hose. It's more like a massive quantitative circus extravaganza.
Gregory Mannarino is tracking the lack of liquidity in the bond market, which is about to cause a debt implosion that will dray every debt-based derivative down along with it, including the stock market. Hence the fire hose, which is what he expected albeit he expected it a bit sooner than now.
Inflation is about to get much worse. Got real metal?
What you are describing is the recipe for a deflationary asset collapse. Any hyperinflation will come afterwards after practically everyone is broke and a record percentage unemployed. Under your scenario, most metal holders will be forced to sell their physical stash, long before they can benefit from it later.
There is absolutely no possibility that any central bank or all combined can possibly act fast enough to prevent it.
I'll give you my alternate view. The "establishment" or whatever you want to call them aren't going to voluntarily trash the USD to preserve fake paper wealth and they won't "print to infinity" to provide "bread and circus" to the population either.
They will take some sort of TBD "middle ground" and only under the most desperate of circumstances would they do what the hyper inflationists believe or expect. This will only occur after every single other option has been exhausted.
Among the other options they will consider: FX and capital controls, tax increases, selective defaults on the "social contract" such as means testing of benefits, bank bail-ins, partial or full nationalization of retirement accounts and private pensions (involuntary purchases of government debt), unilateral extensions of USG maturities at artificially low rates, and selective outright USG debt defaults.
On the latter, no one believes it's a legitimate option but if you think about it, it's actually better to save the currency than trash both the currency and debt market. There is an article out on the internet from around 2011 where Jeffrey Rogersd Hummel (then at San Jose State University) used this idea as his theme.
In a SHTF scenario, all options are going to be on the table, including those which (practically) no one thinks are viable or will ever happen.
Regardless of the specifics, my prediction is that the markets, the public, and the economy will all be "thrown under the bus" to preserve the Empire. See Ukraine for an example. Doesn't matter whether incumbent politicians get thrown out of office. Foreign policy is essentially immune to election outcomes and so is the financial establishment.
Comments
this continues to hold true. Dollar index is designed to not include how much a dollar can purchase. It is simply a comparison to other major currencies all of which are having more problems than the dollar.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
2 yr yield and USD correlation
It will get better when Japan takes the reigns off the Yen.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The euro has much greater impact on the USDX, it is 57.6% of the basket while the yen is only 13.6%.
A sudden rise in the euro would reflect positively with gold, but the EU is far from solving its problems. A breakup of the EU is possibly in the cards when the consequences of current policy hit (every) home in the winter. As globalization comes to a screeching halt and nationalization becomes the norm, look for EU members to want their independence to protect their own specific interests. Britain saw the writing on the wall, just a matter of time before others follow suit.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Certainly not worried about "currency baskets". Still buying gold, mostly at spot, every chance I get, and still sleeping like a baby. EU not going away, more counties will join. EZ $$$$ RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
duh, we are on the cuspice of a global financial collapse. EU will actually see it first. Money printing will once again be unrolled globally with temporary illusions of grandeur (like the last time) only to return economies to where they are now, but much worse off. Temporary central bank fixes tend to become a long term catastrophe, a reality that never is learned.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
I was actually hoping someone could define "cuspice":)
Some people cheer for a massive economic apocalypse so they can be right about something for the first time in 50 years.
One could reasonably argue that it is not the mass or mainstream media that is doing the scaring, but rather the smaller, caustic echo-chamber tributaries, of which many are navigated and promoted on this very forum.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Confusing "cheers" with warnings can be a critical mistake, particularly when it comes to one's long term wealth outlook.
When the weather man tells you a hurricane is coming is it a warning or simply a "cheer" to justify his job? LOL
The first step to success in financial planning is to understand the difference.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
...> @cohodk said:
Yes ... my presence here is actually a waste of time. Then again, so is yours.
I was actually hoping someone could define "cuspice"
Cuspice: When one finds themself on the cusp of a precipice.
OP here posed an interesting question. I know there's no one right answer
cohodk has observed that a rising dollar (in relative terms, compared to the "basket" of currencies used to measure the dollar's "strength") is causing the price of gold to decline in dollar terms. It needs to be noted that gold is rising in most other currencies.
Meanwhile, Martin Armstrong points out that money is coming out of Europe and into dollars - and that increased demand is causing an actual short-term shortage of dollars which makes for a "stronger" dollar. Both the European Central Bank and the Fed are creating currency faster than all get-out, so pick your poison - dollar denominated paper or precious metals.
It won't go on forever, and when it blows it won't be a question of being right once in 50 years. it will be too little, too late for most people. Que' Sera Sera.
I knew it would happen.
My guess is if people buy I-bond (inflation-adjusted bond with 9.62% interest) or T-bill, at least they can collect interest for the time being.
good call. how long before things get better?
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Japan has been begging for inflation for 30 years. Now they are finally getting it. Why would they want to let go of what they tried so hard to get?
The Yen has been a global funding currency for decades. The world is awash with yen borrowed at cheap rates. The unwind of this carry-trade will/would have bigger consequences than bad US politics or a war by a paranoid egomaniac. The speed of the unwind will be the key factor. The Yen is actually more important to the currency basket than the Euro dispite its smaller weighting. Japan needs to let rates rise, but they seem unwilling to do so.
This unwind will not be the end of the world though.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The dollar continues to grow in strength relative to other currencies. Other countries are selling gold to obtain dollars. These factors have outweighed inflationary pressures for the moment, pushing PM prices lower.
Remember a few years back when there were numerous warnings here on the forum that all the money printing would lead to massive inflation and it was just another conspiracy theory?
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
@derryb said: "Remember a few years back when there were numerous warnings here on the forum that all the money printing would lead to massive inflation and it was just another conspiracy theory?"
Actually, my recollection is that board members almost universally expected inflation to pick up, with most feeling it could be significant (eg, repeat of the 1970s). Some expected much worse. Many of us, however, felt that the risk of hyperinflation was small or perhaps nil, and that pundits trying to draw parallels with Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe were way off the mark. To date, I think the views of the more moderate members of the board are being affirmed.
Referring to the few members here who support the coheynesian school of thought and believe the FED knows what it is doing, always new what it was doing and is doing a fine job. LOL.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Interesting....I believe coheynesians have been advocating for higher interest rates for a decade now. I believe that is well documented in this forum.
Also, about 18 months ago some coheynsian even posted a chart predicting 20%+ increases in prices within 12 months.
This inflation is the result of $7 Trillion dumped into an economy that was restricted from freely operating by the current and former administrations. These free handouts by both administrations was a roughly 50% increase in money supply.
We all know that increased money supply will result in inflation. Blame should be placed on #45 and #46 for dumping the cash and for the Fed for allowing itself to be beholden to politicians. This was quite evident in 2019 when the FED bowed to pressure from #45 in 2019, (J6P pays for increased prices due to tariffs, not China). The Fed needed to stay in control and not be bullied. They failed in that regard.
Keep trying der-conspiracyb-oy.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Not having any real ownership or oversight over the Federal Reserve allows them to enrich themselves at the expense of everyone else. They may put on a facade of trying to help the economy, but they help themselves first and everybody else second. Ultimately what they provide is central planning for the economy (like communism). But a true capitalist economy is based on decentralized planning.
You can buy alot of senators and congressmen with an unlimited amount of money created out of thin air.
I knew it would happen.
Some time ago the Greek economy was supposed to lead to a world wide monetary collapse. How was that averted.
Not to mention votes!!
We the people have the ability to effect change, but we the people are weak, easily manipulated, and of poor character.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Speak for yourself. I've been threatened with banishment, censorship and deplarforming for not going along with a lot of the bs perpetrated on humanity the last couple years. Pfffft
Well...they do say actions speak louder than words.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Not to mention votes!!
“If voting made any difference, they wouldn’t let us do it.” - Mark Twain
I knew it would happen.
Exactly my point. Stop voting. Nobody cast a vote. Tell "them" we ain't happy by giving them no support. Stop playing their game. Stop being their pawns.
We the people, by the people, for the people.
We are weak.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Folks, let's steer away from the political undertones.
This is a warning.
Back on topuc🙂
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumers-remain-pessimistic-about-economy-even-as-inflation-fears-wane-11664546780
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I didn't read any post except the OP question.
To answer their question, it's because people aren't robots but human beings. They don't repetitively or predictively react to events or behave according to conventional belief.
Strong dollar index, gold will continue to suffer. Dollar index calculated against other "basket" currencies.
Current basket indicates lower PM prices.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
The metal of kings will never suffer. Gutter metal yes but never the Au. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
LOL, laughing at you, not with you.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
USD LOL hows your premiums? What a piker.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
We had a global financial collapse in 2008-2009.....or should have had. It was papered over by the FED. I'll bet they
were quite surprised they could do that and it would work.
The FED handed out approx $33 TRILL in Credit Swap failure payments to the winners who couldn't be paid off by the bankrupt losers. Same comment for the $7 TRILL in mortgage backed security failures. Estimates that $40-$60 TRILL in total losses were covered by the FED back then....uhh....I mean the American Taxpayers. That was a collapse. The TBTF banks would have gone under and everyone else would have followed them. We're in the same situation this time around....only worse with wars on more fronts - possible nuclear war......an energy crisis in Europe and other parts of the industrialized world....world supply chain crisis....climate change agendas diverting the world's wealth, pandemics now on the annual schedule....a food crisis soon to get worse as Ukrainian farms cut way back in 2022.....etc. Lots worse this time around vs. 2008. The stock market has been inflated 4x-5x since then from increasing M1 money supply from $4 TRILL to $20 TRILL. At some point the FED and G7 will have to paper over this mess just like in 2008-2009 as the big banks and other major financial entities lose on their bets. Someone has to pay them out in order to keep the system afloat. At least this time around J6P savings accounts can be tapped legally to pay off TBTF bank derivative losses.
Why no real inflation in the US from 2011-2021 after all that papering-over by the FED? A lot of it was funny money, dark pool stuff. Doesn't show up on M1, M2. But this past +$16 TRILL went right on M1. As a rule the US has been the world's chief exporter of inflation. As long as all that papering and digi-money and derivatives stays overseas in other countries....less effect here. And those losing banker bets are generally paid off in US Dollars....also adding to the dollar's strength. It is the means to settle major bets between big banks and nations. And while the dollar is settling huge bank bets, gold can't get traction. A lot of this continuing settlement goes on under the radar. The world's banking system almost went down in 1998 with the LTCM failure speculating on currencies/PMs with huge leverage....papered over by the Central Banks. When the otc interest rate derivatives ever get stressed to failure, that will be 5X-10X the size of the 2008 crisis. That could be hard to paper over. A full system reset might occur.
Gold has never just followed inflation. That's a myth. Gold did quite well in the first half of the 1970's during a recession. And did well from 2000-2003 during a recession - going up 50%. And let's not forgot the recession of late 2008 - Sept 2011 when gold tripled in price. Gold responds to many things. It doesn't automatically respond opposite to the USDollar or with inflation. It does well when there is a confidence loss in governments and their ability to pay and support their currencies. It responds well to the movement of real interest rates. And with opaque otc gold derivatives to fudge the paper price of gold, the average consumer can't see what's really happening. If you want to see strong bull markets in gold check it out gold vs the Yen, EUE, SA Rand, NZD, GBP, CAD, CHF, AUD, etc. Since those other major world currencies are not typical "bet settlers" For 80-90% of the world's currencies, being in gold is a good thing....almost a mandatory for the past couple of decades.
Armstrong has some interesting 0-6 yr economic calls in this video. Most important are is suggestions on where to park your assets as the crisis worsens.
https://zerohedge.com/markets/2023-will-be-year-hell-martin-armstrong-warns-europe-could-suck-rest-world-down-tubes
The 2008 "collapse" will be a "blip" compared to what's coming in 2023-2033. This is a 4th generational cycle of a larger 80-100 yr social/cultural cycle. Things are essentially out of room. The previous 3 major 80 yr "war and social upheaval" cycles were American Revolution and Constitutional Period 1773-1793.....Civil War period 1857-1877.....1929-1949 WW2 period.....and then today's 2008-2028 period. Good things for most people don't happen in these 4th - 20 yr "reset" cycles. The vast majority of people alive have no experience with one of these. It's just generational cycling....out with the old and in with the new. The system runs out of other people's money/assets and everything is stretched to the hilt where's there no other way out except to reset the system somehow. Gold/silver/currencies/bank notes all played major roles in those previous resets. Coming out the back end of the current one will be Central Bank Digitized currencies and much stricter controls. More than likely paper currencies will be called in and replaced with digi-dollars.
To make matters worse, the US stock markets have essentially peaked in 5 Elliot Waves in multiple time frames: 2020-2022, 2009-2022, 1982-2022, 1932-2022, and potentially a peak in the 120 yr stock market cycle from the late 1800's to 2022.....a 120 yr Grand Business Cycle. Corrections to cycles of that magnitude will be unfathomable to most....having only witnessed uncontrolled debt and credit expansion since 1971 (closure of the gold window). Contraction of the majority of the debt and credit will be quite the surprise to most people.
Markets tend to correct to the previous Wave 3/4 cycles of the 5 wave cycle. The Dow's last important 4th wave was the triangle formed from 2017-2020. That suggests a return to Dow 18000 at a minimum, with a lower projection of 10,000 or less. Not good. And the previous larger order wave 4 triangle was from 1998-2014. That triangle projects a low of 4,000-10,000 as well. Retracing 10-12 yrs of SM growth brings things back to 10,000 Dow. Considering the market is correcting an 80-120 yr cycle where the Dow went from approx 10 to 60 all the way to 36,484 leaves a lot of downside targets. For those with short memories, the Dow retraced from 14,200 to 6,500 during the 2008 crisis. And that was a lower order correction than what is potentially currently on the table. I hope I'm wrong. And I won't rule out one more high in the Dow from 40K to 42K as money from Europe pours in during the coming 1-2 years looking for safety. Still, at some point it's got to correct big time. The March 2020 Pandemic Spike Low at 18K Dow is still pretty fresh to everyone. That dip was the wound spring that took the Dow to 36K. It also was a left behind "marker" on where the current market should retrace to in the future. Many other markets will follow suit. The Dow has already retraced to inside the 2017-2020 wave 4 triangle which covers a lot of ground from 18K to 30K.
Silver has a lot to say this morning about 11:30 am emergency FED meeting:
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
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I don't think you are wrong except that longer term (over many decades), I'm expecting the US stock market to retrace the entire mania back to the mid-1990's. It's not required, but it's happened regularly across history in numerous markets. If it doesn't happen in nominal prices, definitely adjusted for price changes. The excesses during the 21st century across all major asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate) dwarf anything from the past. It's not even close.
The DJIA lost about 75% adjusted for price changes from the 2/9/66 peak to whenever the low was in the late 70's early 80's. There was no mania at any point between 1966-1982. Don't remember for the S&P 500 but the Value Line Composite (which was highly followed at the time prior to widespread indexing) I believe lost 75% between 1968-1974.
By fundamentals, far worse now in every respect today than at any peak during this time or previously. The long-term fundamentals (as described in your posts) today are mediocre to terrible. It just isn't fully evident yet because we're near a market peak and it's been substantially disguised by monetary and fiscal policy.
Ah man... just when I was starting to believe that talk of silver being a 'gutter' metal.....
But guess we had better wait to see if the strength holds.
As of this post, silver up 8.8%.
Up and down up and down but as they say in the gutter expect more down than up. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
The ECB and the Fed are buying bonds hand over fist in order to keep the dollar down and the debt market (and consequently the stock market) from imploding. In doing so, higher inflation is the primary anticipated result. It's no longer quantitative easing when they turn on the money fire hose. It's more like a massive quantitative circus extravaganza.
Gregory Mannarino is tracking the lack of liquidity in the bond market, which is about to cause a debt implosion that will dray every debt-based derivative down along with it, including the stock market. Hence the fire hose, which is what he expected albeit he expected it a bit sooner than now.
Inflation is about to get much worse. Got real metal?
I knew it would happen.
What you are describing is the recipe for a deflationary asset collapse. Any hyperinflation will come afterwards after practically everyone is broke and a record percentage unemployed. Under your scenario, most metal holders will be forced to sell their physical stash, long before they can benefit from it later.
There is absolutely no possibility that any central bank or all combined can possibly act fast enough to prevent it.
I'll give you my alternate view. The "establishment" or whatever you want to call them aren't going to voluntarily trash the USD to preserve fake paper wealth and they won't "print to infinity" to provide "bread and circus" to the population either.
They will take some sort of TBD "middle ground" and only under the most desperate of circumstances would they do what the hyper inflationists believe or expect. This will only occur after every single other option has been exhausted.
Among the other options they will consider: FX and capital controls, tax increases, selective defaults on the "social contract" such as means testing of benefits, bank bail-ins, partial or full nationalization of retirement accounts and private pensions (involuntary purchases of government debt), unilateral extensions of USG maturities at artificially low rates, and selective outright USG debt defaults.
On the latter, no one believes it's a legitimate option but if you think about it, it's actually better to save the currency than trash both the currency and debt market. There is an article out on the internet from around 2011 where Jeffrey Rogersd Hummel (then at San Jose State University) used this idea as his theme.
In a SHTF scenario, all options are going to be on the table, including those which (practically) no one thinks are viable or will ever happen.
Regardless of the specifics, my prediction is that the markets, the public, and the economy will all be "thrown under the bus" to preserve the Empire. See Ukraine for an example. Doesn't matter whether incumbent politicians get thrown out of office. Foreign policy is essentially immune to election outcomes and so is the financial establishment.