Is set registry grading special good for dealers?

Wayne8348

Before the set registry grading special it seems that (at least in the 1960's topps sets) the average common card was selling for a higher percentage of smr than they have lately. The psa 9's are very strong but the psa 8's is where I see a lot of softness in the market. Obviously it's great for the buyers but is it hurting the dealers? If the average nm/mt card is bringing $5 - $8 less than before and the dealer is saving $1 then it seems like the math won't work. Or is it that many of the collectors are getting a higher completion percentage of their respective sets therefore leaving the easier to get commons with no buyers out there?

Along those lines, if Davalillo is anywhere close to correct (which is entirely possible) then where will the buyers come from to purchase all of the graded cards that are out there? Will prices drop thereby enticing existing collectors to start collecting additional sets? Or are their lot's of collectors that just haven't caught on to graded sets just yet? I could maybe see some of the 1950's guys starting to move into the 60's since their sets are close to complete except for an occassional upgrade.

I guess my main question is - where do you see prices heading for 1960's and 1970's cards over the next year, 3 years, and 5 years? Let me know what you think.

Wayne

helionaut

On the whole, as long as dealers submit hundreds of cards at a time, supply will certainly outstrip demand and keep prices lower. I'm sure it hurts dealers if they don't handle things in the best way possible. As an example, I bought a 79 card lot of PSA 8 1975 commons on ebay for about $5.25 per card. This was a great deal for me, but assuming $6/card, the dealer lost about $60 on it on grading fees alone, not to mention ebay fees and the cost of the cards themselves. At the same time, that dealer was also selling lots of about 120 cards, 50 cards, 40 cards, with almost the exact same cards common to each lot. For each auction, the results were similar, somewhere between $5.50-$6 per card. If he had sold them individually, and/or not gone into competition with himself on those particular players, he'd probably have at least broken even. But the prices on ebay for that whole set are definitely soft at the moment, with common 8s going for under $8 on average, whereas a few months ago the average was in the $10 range. I'm not as familiar with the trends in other years, but I get the feeling that similar things are happening. In a few months when the returns from the special have dried up and still more people get into the registry, they'll surely come back up, but probably not as far as they once were. 9s are still strong, still not enough of them to go around. And the major stars haven't softened much at all.

aro13

I am not certain dealers are losing money. All it takes is one PSA 10 or a few 9's and you can unload the 8's at whatever price you want because you have already made a huge profit.

calleocho

psa must have some kind of discount for really large volume dealers. maybe 4 or 5 bucks per card if you send 2000 or 3000 at once...i would guess...maybe SOL might know

mikeschmidt

Wayne:

Prices will definitely fluctuate on many 1960s and 1970s cards. Cards that bring low populations premiums now may not bring such premiums in the future. But, also, the short history of the graded card industry suggests that when populations of entire sets increase dramatically, that there are more collectors that are drawn to collect those sets. Thus, as long there is a continued expansion in collecting many of those sets from the 1960s and 1970s, prices should have a definitive floor. There are some cards (1968 Topps Grant Jackson is my favorite example) who have a population in PSA 9 of something like 75. That is obviously a glut -- but people still pay good money for MINT cards from 1968, even if it is high population.

Dealers are in the game to make money -- and the people that are submitting massive quantities of 1972s, 1968s and 1975s are primarily dealers. Collectors also submit and join in the fray, too. But, the bottom line seems to be that the graded card market is here to stay, and it is only a matter of time before most sets from the 1970s are actively collected by multiple collectors towards PSA 8 or better completion.

mcastaldi

helionaut> I know the auctions of the 75s to which you are referring. As a builder of the 75 set, I looked at them closely. What I concluded was that the lots are largely composed of high-pop cards. With the 75 set, some cards are overly abundant in PSA8 and/or PSA9 - Lindblad, Dent, Reuschel, Bibby, Milt May, Segui, Reed, Mcglothlen, Reuss, and many others. So even listed singly, those cards would be lucky to pull more than $6 each anyway. And by consolidating them into one auction, he reduces his eBay fees. However, as aro said it doesn't take many PSA9s to sell at $30 or better to cover any "loss" he may take on those high-pop 8s.

I've also noticed that prices seem to be generally down right now.

Mike

1954

The dealer price is $6.00. PSA is in the business to make money. I believe that $6.00 is the least that they would grade cards on a bulk basis.

1954

riccaboni

Vintage (before 1975) bulk is $7.00 a card, minimum 100, modern bulk (after 1974) is $6.00 a card, 100 card minimum. That is the lowest rate available, besides the current 80's special which is running at $5.00 a card with a 25 card minimum.

Ian

FB

Ian,

Whenever PSA runs a Set Registry Special and it pushes the cost down to the commoners like us to $6.00 per card. The dealers get cheaper rates than that - usually $5.50 per or even $5.00 per if they do enough volume.

I know I'd be a little ticked if everybody and their grandmother was paying the same amount that I was - but I had to guarantee 10,000 cards per year!!!!

purelyPSA

Anyone have an idea what #s of submissions it takes to get a sweeter deal?

Fabfrank

Like in any other market, we will see peaks and valleys in pricing. Right now, with prices on PSA 8's edging downward, is actually a healthy sign for graded cards. As prices dip, this attracts newer collectors you normally would not put together a graded set. As demand begins to meet supply prices stabilize and than begin to rise again.
I also believe that there are many collectors who do not know about the set registry. I myself only found out about it a few months ago. As the registry grows, this too will fuel more grading and stronger prices. PSA really hit a homer with this set registry idea.

riccaboni

Wow really Frank?... I did not know this, this is news to me. Better spend my parents life savings getting my A-Team cards graded to capture the $5.25 rate! Mr. T = Strong Secondary Market Value

Ian

Fabfrank

Riccaboni- Remember, you need DEMAND for this to work. But grade any card you like. As long as it's in your collection, It'll always have a home.
P.S. What was that crazy guys name on A-Team?

FB

Howlin Mad Murdoch?

Fabfrank

It was Murdoch! Thanks FB.