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Is PSA pricing out the pure collector?
WeldonWright
Posts: 11 ✭
I started collecting in 1965 (I know the day like it was yesterday). I view a pure collector as someone that collects the commons, not just the stars. And with the announced $50.00 economy grading price: I would like to hear the opinions of the community on the following: What is the projected price of the "value" service going to be and is PSA pricing the pure collector out of existance? Are graded commons becoming a thing of the past? Will we not see a return to "unslabbed" collecting? Or am I wrong and slabbing should only be for star cards? Thanks.
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Beachfront property in Malibu priced out most homebuyers due to demand. Demand raises prices. If you can afford it, do it. If you can’t afford it, buy property or slabs somewhere else.
PSA doesn’t have to explain their prices as long as many people are willing to pay them. Just like California real estate agents don’t either.
PSA has the capacity to process close to 1 million cards per month and they will need business after the backlog is cleared later this year. They will adjust the price accordingly. Is this 20.00, 25.00, or another price point? We will find out soon enough. I suspect they will have registry specials (outside of ultra modern).
I think we will see a return to more reasonable pricing for vintage commons, Nat Turner expressed concern that registry collectors, or "pure" collectors, need to be brought back into the grading fold.
In terms of Value pricing, I personally think that means $15 for vintage, $20 for modern and $25 for ultra modern. Also with the possibility of quarterly specials returning that could target vintage as well, maybe at the $10 price point? who knows...
I will take Goldenage's answer as a yes - PSA grading has become a rich man's game. However, property prices in Malibu was due more to rarity than demand (limited number of homes). Grading and slabbing a card is an unlimited process, as long as there are cards, grading/slabbing can be done. This is not a supply and demand situation. Collector's world went private and their prices doubled.
I look at commons from the 1960's graded PSA 8 or better and see them at the $17 to $25.00 range and think "That will not even cover the cost of grading them in the future". I do hope that PSA realizes that there are a lot of collectors that are not out for the investment of stars.
Bubbles deflate and imo the current craze for modern graded especially put us where we are. Once the backlog clears I could see, like the others, moving back to $10 to $15 slabbing. As a registry set collector with around 300 or so to have graded I certainly hope so.
www.questfortherookiecup.com
Is PSA pricing out the pure collector?
Yes they have and they simply could NOT care less. They have also given the metaphorical middle finger to most registry collectors - the same registry collectors who kept PSA's lights on during leaner times.
Unless otherwise specified my posts represent only my opinion, not fact.
My definition of a pure collector includes someone who doesn’t need graded cards.
RCMB3220, my definition of pure collector did not mention needing graded cards. 99% of my cards remain ungraded. But the registry is for graded cards. And they are nice to have and look at.
A lot going on in my opinion and hard to say one pure decision or emotion is ruling what happens. Some valid insights here. I dont necessarily see it as PSA is pricing out the pure collector. Depending on how we define that. I feel like a pure collector but I like valuable cards and cards of players with great accomplishments which are expensive.
The market and economics may price out collectors in certain spaces. I might see it as PSA is not even driving the car. Kind of like one of the modern hands off the wheel electric cars. They probably do what the majority feels makes good business sense even though there could be a variety of options.
Whether you see lower prices I think mostly depends on demand for $50 cards and capacity to review slab and return. If they are capable of delivering one million cards a month and they see 1.2 million submissions a month, it probably isnt moving lower soon. Then it comes down to some formula, to add staff, property, equipment, materials to produce 200,000 more slabs a month it will cost x dollars. Will I make x+1 dollars if I do it? If no, its just something they cant justify doing.
I think things can be said about intentions and I believe PSA wants to get to $20 a card again, maybe even lower. Because then more happy customers and more business. But hard to predict where it will go. I could see the backlog getting cleared and the $50 submissions thinning out. Testing the waters with $30 allocations. Then allowing $30 submissions. And then maybe they see 5 million submissions over 2 months when they were ready to handle 1 or 1.5 per month. Then they are just in a spot. Try to ramp up but hard to move prices for a while. Its like GM and Ford wanted to sell as many cars as people wanted but they didn't have the chips so they could only make so many. Then naturally they charged more. And GM said we hope to drop prices in the future. But the market dictates their hand.
What I find fascinating is how this all impacts the price of cards and vice versa. I feel the people most upset about what is happening are the ones who have not seen the cards they collect go up 200 to 500% in the last couple years. How many more cards now sell for more than $50 compared to in 2019? I could see 3 4 5x as many. Maybe more. So what does that result in, more people wanting to submit more cards. I use $50 but it can be any amount. Whatever might make sense to get you to submit. If its $40 to $75 cards that have grown astronomically, then the amount of cards people would choose to submit at $20 could go through the roof. PSA might need to grow 2 to 3x more than what they are now.
And do some of the cards we buy go up in value because of the inability to submit at 20 to 30 dollars recently? A buyer cant submit at that rate so maybe he/she pays more to get someone else's card in a slab. If fees get slashed from recent levels will some of our cards start selling for 1/2 of what they sell for now with more available, more potentially available. I find sets that were released since lower priced submissions were not available interesting. Later 2021. Are the prices people pay for those slabbed cards artificially pumped up because you cant submit them for cheaper than $50? Is it kind of a bubble? You pay for it cause its what it costs and you think it will go up in value. Then you look at cards in CGC and CSG slabs and maybe they go for 40% of the price of a PSA card in the same grade. Partially reputation not in the same place but also people can submit for $15 a card. Maybe some of us would love $5 submissions but we might see the value of what we currently hold drop in a huge way.
This.
Do I expect to see $5 specials any more? ...... wait for it ...... no freaking way!
Will I spend $50 for one of my patiently-waiting-in-stacks of 20 registry raw cards ..... wait for it ...... no freaking way!
Will spend $20 a card if the opportunity eventually arises? - not if I have to wait 16 months and counting to get the cards back in my hands, so I hope the NJ site and efficiencies make a $20 price point feasible, and maybe, just maybe i'll dip a toe or two into the water to see how it feels.
sjjs28@comcast.net
Collector of 1964 Topps Stand Ups, 1965 Embossed, 1968 Topps Game and 1969 Topps Decals
Registered Sets: 1964 Stand Ups, 1965 Embossed, 1968 Topps Game, 1969 Topps Decals
I think we don't know what is going to happen in the future and what is currently happening. None of the information coming out is actually confirmed. What if someone said they process 400,000 cards a month ? What if they say 600,000 ? What about 399,000 ? They have 47 graders ? 68 graders ? 87 graders ? 99 graders ? The backlog was 9 million?, 11 million ? , 12 million?, 15 million ? Businesses don't give all the facts ever. My question is how many are they receiving now...new submissions? I have not viewed one piece of info on this. Is it 200,000 cards a month ? Once again, I have no idea.
Giving PSA 20 bucks for their case and opinion seems fine. Giving them 5%. or more. of my card seems like a bad idea.
Eventually the vast majority of these ultra modern slabs are going to be in the junk pile. Could be 5-10 years. But, when that happens I think the market is going to change.
By your definition, I'd be a pure collector. I collect vintage sets primarily, but have a pretty big stack of singles as well, lots graded, even more raw. All my sets are in binders.
I don't lose any sleep over if/when grading will ever make sense for me again. If I want graded cards, market is flooded with inventory. Beautiful cards in slabs selling for half the cost of grading fees. 7ths that used to be 8s, 8s that used to be 9s, etc.
Never had more fun in the hobby to be honest, got away from chasing highest grade and turns out I like to build sets. Nothing much more pure then that, basically where most of us started in the hobby.
In the short term the answer is yes. In the long run, with all of the hiring that they hace done and investment in expansion and tech. I gotta beleive the the backlog is removed they are going tp need more submissions to keep things going.
Will we ever get back to $10 again. I don,t know. It kind of depends on how the card market goes. With infaltion and the economy going the way it's going there has to be a pull back of prices which already started. They will have to lower prices to keep everybody working.
One million cards a month is a lot. I could be wrong but I don't think that will keep up at $20 a card.
Matt
Agree about the building of sets, My 1980-81 and 1985-86 OPC hockey sets before the key cards were graded, had been pack pulled and acquired the last few cards of these sets from trades and from pickups at shows. Picked up another raw 85-86 complete set and and an 86-87 OPC raw set in binders and was happy to acquire them!
Damn skippy they are. You will never see pricing for commons ever again
I don't think so. No different than a gas station. Prices are more for high fuel octane. We're going through a crisis. Things will eventually Level off when Russia says so.
Russia? LOL I didn't realize Putin was such a prodigious collector.
Yah, it's Putin's fault that PSA prices are this high. lol