General Downward Trend

pruebas · May 13, 2022 6:51PM

I have noticed over the last 10-15 years a general downward trend in prices for many world coins. I'm not talking about the "hot" coins (Spanish Colonial, Mexican Revolution, English gold, etc.) but general world coins. Specifically, I sort of follow Latin American minor patterns and essais, but I will also include regular minor issues too. Many now trade for less than I paid in 2010.

It seems to me this is the real trend of coin collecting, not the crazy prices for hot series and fought-over coins.

And I believe this goes for US issues as well. Modern commems that used to be considered "better" seem to have declined over the last 10-15 years. (I don't know enough about US coins to give other examples.)

I don't attribute this to increased pops, but to decreased demand. Maybe we really are going the way of philately?

Comments?

bidask · May 13, 2022 7:00PM

I don’t think we are going the way of philately…

Maybe you can give us more specific examples of coins in your collection that you bought 10-12 years that are worth less.

bidask · May 13, 2022 7:05PM

I did notice many of the German crowns in the last Heritahe auction brought a lot less than in previous auctions

There was Lessing 5 mark that sold for under $1100 in NGC 68 and others sold for less as well .

Seems gem 2 marks and 3 marks have gone the way of US commems in many instances .

pruebas · May 13, 2022 7:17PM

Some examples off the top of my head. 1870 Paraguay 1c, 2c, 4c in decent grades (64,65). Bolivia 1c & 2c essais. Argentina 1c & 2c (1880?). Colombia & Mexico 1890 2c private patterns. Central American Union 1c & 2c essais. I guess these are mostly copper issues.

Not rare coins by any means (scarce maybe), but bread & butter coins in decent grades with eye appeal. And they aren't going anywhere.

These are just ones I notice since I am interested in them, but I'm sure others will suggest others.

pruebas · May 13, 2022 7:23PM

I will even use my just-sold Japanese patterns as another example. The "sexy" ones (which are genuinely rare with <5 known) did reasonably well. But the more recent ones with maybe 10 known did way worse than I purchased them for over the last 15 years despite being MS64-66s.

I realize the Japanese market is quite insular, but I think this is a worldwide phenomenon.

Rexford · May 13, 2022 7:25PM

I don’t think there is a general downward trend. Most world issues that I can think of have seen massive surges in price over the last two years, sometimes by multiples. Some less popular issues may not be doing well, especially as more and more are graded and made available on the market, but as a general trend world coins are faring extremely well, with an unprecedented uptick in value. I don’t feel that the types that have shrunk in value are representative of the market in general at all, but rather a sign of a shift in popularity and focus towards other types.

pruebas · May 13, 2022 7:33PM

@Rexford said:
I don’t think there is a general downward trend. Most world issues that I can think of have seen massive surges in price over the last two years, sometimes by multiples. Some less popular issues may not be doing well, especially as more and more are graded and made available on the market, but as a general trend world coins are faring extremely well, with an unprecedented uptick in value. I don’t feel that the types that have shrunk in value are representative of the market in general at all, but rather a sign of a shift in popularity and focus towards other types.

So perhaps the market participants are starting to focus on the same types (sameness) vs. a more broad range of interests (variety)?

For example, I wouldn't call 20th Century Mexico a massive surge in pricing (except on the top pops, which are hot).
But within the same country (Mexico), there is a massive surge in Colonial, because it's hot. Just not a broad-based surge for all types. Only the hot areas are surging.

realeswatcher · May 13, 2022 7:47PM

To the point of certain types doing better...

Bolivia 1c & 2c essais

By contrast, have you seen what halfway decent 8 Soles have been bringing the past few years? And now, we're even talking XF and up... Did a review of eBay last week and those and I was surprised what pieces are actually selling for.

neildrobertson · May 13, 2022 8:06PM

I collect German coins after 1871. I'd say that from 2011 through 2019 the overall trend was down. Most stuff has stabilized or increased during Covid. There has been an increase in the price different between graded and ungraded material in the past 2 years. Definitely an increase in appetite for graded material across the board. There is a greater appreciation for conditional rarities now than there was 10 years ago. I think those two factors are what drives a lot of what Rexford is seeing.

There was seemingly a peak in the 2013 time period for a bunch of stuff. I recall rare German States minor coins selling for more about 10 years ago. There was a dearth of quality graded material then too, so there are some coins back then that sold for prices above what they'd sell for now. Sometimes it's because they were "top pop"s back then. Most of the graded coins I bought in 2012-2014 would sell for the exact same now or 10% more than I bought them for. Once I factor in inflation, it's a loss.

bidask · May 13, 2022 8:35PM

@neilrobertson

Did you watch the recent Heritage and Stocks auctions and if so what did you think of some of the prices the german crowns brought ?

I did buy one German crown which I posted as a win in my OP on the those CSNA auctions ….

amwldcoin · May 14, 2022 5:43AM

I'm curious, These all seem to be certified coins you mention. Is that the trend you are talking about? Have you tracked the change in POPs? I feel many certified World Coins maybe a bubble market because there are so many out there that have not been certified. Look at the big CAC bubble that's happening right now. Semi common coins binging 5X's the going rate because the CAC POPs are low for now!

bidask · May 14, 2022 7:47AM

I do think while still strong for most series prices at auctions and dealer transactions have been softer .

I suspect the stock, bond, crypto, and precious metals markets ( all down ) have something to do with the softer prices

Rexford · May 14, 2022 8:07AM

@neildrobertson said:
I collect German coins after 1871. I'd say that from 2011 through 2019 the overall trend was down. Most stuff has stabilized or increased during Covid. There has been an increase in the price different between graded and ungraded material in the past 2 years. Definitely an increase in appetite for graded material across the board. There is a greater appreciation for conditional rarities now than there was 10 years ago. I think those two factors are what drives a lot of what Rexford is seeing.

There was seemingly a peak in the 2013 time period for a bunch of stuff. I recall rare German States minor coins selling for more about 10 years ago. There was a dearth of quality graded material then too, so there are some coins back then that sold for prices above what they'd sell for now. Sometimes it's because they were "top pop"s back then. Most of the graded coins I bought in 2012-2014 would sell for the exact same now or 10% more than I bought them for. Once I factor in inflation, it's a loss.

I think you’re also probably looking for the most part at a less popular area of German States / German Empire material. The primary collector focus is on large issues, not minors, and on German States over Empire, which has fewer legitimate rarities and generally is common in high quality. Rare thalers, gold multiple ducats, and high-end German States material in general, raw or graded, is doing extraordinarily well. Kuenker auctions, which carry a lot of ungraded but desirable and choice German material, have been extremely competitive and have seen huge increases in prices over what the same coins were realizing two or three years ago.

I really am not seeing any legitimate weakness across the board for world coins, except with types that never had a huge collector base in the first place because they are small in size or esoteric, or that were perhaps overvalued in the first place - and even those generally haven’t shrunk very much in value or have stayed roughly the same or even shown a slight increase. For the most part the world coin market is extremely strong, and looking through any major auction should prove that. I collect coins from all over the world, and pretty much anything I purchased over two years ago I can now sell for 1.5x-2x what I originally paid. I also haven’t really been buying anything from auctions recently because I cannot justify paying the prices that are realized.

neildrobertson · May 14, 2022 10:06AM

@Rexford said:

I think you’re also probably looking for the most part at a less popular area of German States / German Empire material. The primary collector focus is on large issues, not minors, and on German States over Empire, which has fewer legitimate rarities and generally is common in high quality. Rare thalers, gold multiple ducats, and high-end German States material in general, raw or graded, is doing extraordinarily well. Kuenker auctions, which carry a lot of ungraded but desirable and choice German material, have been extremely competitive and have seen huge increases in prices over what the same coins were realizing two or three years ago.

I really am not seeing any legitimate weakness across the board for world coins, except with types that never had a huge collector base in the first place because they are small in size or esoteric, or that were perhaps overvalued in the first place - and even those generally haven’t shrunk very much in value or have stayed roughly the same or even shown a slight increase. For the most part the world coin market is extremely strong, and looking through any major auction should prove that. I collect coins from all over the world, and pretty much anything I purchased over two years ago I can now sell for 1.5x-2x what I originally paid. I also haven’t really been buying anything from auctions recently because I cannot justify paying the prices that are realized.

I think you are describing a specific subset of the overall coin market that's doing particularly well. I've seen the types of coins you buy and follow, and they are exceptional. It's not necessarily representative of what's going on overall. That's not to imply that I have a comprehensive view either.

neildrobertson · May 14, 2022 10:17AM

@bidask said:
@neilrobertson

Did you watch the recent Heritage and Stocks auctions and if so what did you think of some of the prices the german crowns brought ?

I did buy one German crown which I posted as a win in my OP on the those CSNA auctions ….

I saw the coin you bought, and it's amazing. It's likely an auction record for the type, but it's also a coin that warrants that status. Your coin sold in the neighborhood of $2k, and the same coin would have sold for $1-1.5k ten years ago. The S&P 500 was 1300 ten years ago and is over 4000 right now (3x increase). Inflation is about 25% over the same time frame. As far as I'm concerned, these coins are sellilng for roughly the same as 10 year ago. If you did the same analysis 2 years ago, they would be selling for less.

These days I tend to describe pricing as "stable".

I didn't follow the auction the day of. I tend to stay away from German States stuff and proofs, which is what HA gets a lot of these days. I usually play in the sub-$500 range.