How do you value a thinly traded (nearly non-existent pricing data) coin?

BStrauss3

Low mintage, a certified population of a few hundred, obscure variety (one of 2 similar ones, and often unattributed), and few auction records... (PCGS doesn't attribute the variety, NGC does, ANACS does in such a way you can't figure out which is which)...

https://www.ngccoin.com/census/united-states/silver-three-cents-1851-1873/20/varieties/13671/?des=ms

PCGS doesn't even recognize the variety. There are 5 certified 1855/855 VP-001 at NCG: 1 ea 40, 45, 53, 58, and, MS64.

Flynn and Zack say there was 3 obverse and 3 reverse dies used to make 139,000 business strikes (and est. 45-55 proofs).

They list two RPDs, both 1855/855. RPD-001 and RPD-002 (Breen 2920) (ANACS also has Breen 2921 for RPD-002).

[If anyone can shoot me a copy of the page(s) from Breen, I'd appreciate it).

It's also rarely attributed - PCGS's plate coin for 1855 is clearly VP-001, https://www.pcgs.com/coinfacts/coin/1855-3cs/3671.

Numismedia has FMV at $270 XF40
NGC has XF40 at $300 (not VP-001)
PCG has XF45 at $425

Auction archives...

PCGS June 2021 sale XF45 $360
HA (https://coins.ha.com/itm/three-cent-silver/two-and-three-cents/1855-3cs-xf45-ngc-ngc-census-17-117-pcgs-population-22-204-cdn-250-whsle-bid-for-ngc-pcgs-xf45-mintage-139-000/a/132151-27146.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515#) has a pair sold, XF40 and XF45 for $312 in December 2021
and says graysheet is 205/250

How do you figure out what it's worth???? At least to be able to quote a price?

I have nothing to hide, the NGC cert# is 4691326-004 - this isn't one of those should I buy it from fleaBay questions where I'm hoping not to drive up the price. That ship sailed.

rays

Since few people collect this series as a whole, I would think a minor variety such as you are describing would carry little, if any premium.

numisma

It is valued like art, in a way. But at the end of the day, it is a supply & demand issue. @BStrauss3 , in your example the supply of available pieces is extremely low, but so is the demand.

You would need to find the top 5 or so most serious trime collectors and then entertain offers in order to establish the true value, which is what a knowledgeable person would be willing to pay for the coin, and a seller would happily accept.

coinbuf

Dartboard.

jmlanzaf

The only price you can really determine is the generic type price. Beyond that, it's a real challenge to determine a price with any certainty. There may be few of them known, but there may be fewer collectors than coins.

savitale

As one of maybe six people in the world to have attempted the Liberty Seated Dimes Complete Variety Set, I can feel your pain regarding pricing minor varieties, at least from the buyer's side. Many of the minor varieties in that series have populations of 10 or less. The pricing premium depends entirely on how badly the collector wants to complete that set. I have paid 4x the price guide value for the regular issue for certain varieties, because I might not see one again for ten years. On the other hand, the seller might have to wait ten years for someone like me to come along.

If it were me, I would put it out there for a high number and see if any rabid variety collectors bite. If no takers in a few weeks, then I'd decide between taking a zero-to-modest premium or keeping it as a museum piece.

amwldcoin

If the 1855 wasn't a better date it might be worth a premium.

DennisH

The key sentence in your post, and the only one that matters IMO, is: "PCGS doesn't even recognize the variety."

The coin may be legitimately rare, but without a demand for it why should there be more than a minor -- if any -- premium for it?

BStrauss3

@DennisH said:
The key sentence in your post, and the only one that matters IMO, is: "PCGS doesn't even recognize the variety."

There are many varieties that PCGS doesn't recognize and the list of what they do recognize changes over time.

Compare their original list: https://www.pcgs.com/news/pcgs-expands-variety-attribution-service with today's https://www.pcgs.com/varietyfaq

There are new books coming out all the time that (better) document many series - who is to say they won't add more references?

ATS: https://www.ngccoin.com/variety-plus/standard-references/ and https://www.ngccoin.com/variety-plus/united-states/three-cents/silver-three-cents-1851-1873/

jmlanzaf

@DennisH said:
The key sentence in your post, and the only one that matters IMO, is: "PCGS doesn't even recognize the variety."

The coin may be legitimately rare, but without a demand for it why should there be more than a minor -- if any -- premium for it?

Demand does not arise solely from PCGS recognition. Only sip the Kool Aid.

Broadstruck

MasonG

@jmlanzaf said:
Demand does not arise solely from PCGS recognition.

It sure wouldn't hurt. Where would the three legged buffalo be if it wasn't in the Redbook and there weren't holes for it in albums?

ShaunBC5

Since you know it’s often not attributed, the pop of 5 shouldn’t mean that much. If it rose in value over the standard type, they would come out of the woodwork and keep the price lower. Unless you need it and need it to be already certified as such, I wouldn’t think a big premium would be in order.

BStrauss3

There was demand for 3-leg buffalos before PCGS was invented.

I was talking to a dealer at the show yesterday and he was selling off his first real coin.

When he got out of the service in the 50s, he put a 1918/17 and 3-legger on layaway at $1 / week each. Then his wife became pregnant with their first child. And he put the 1918/17 money towards the 3-legger. He's held onto it all these years, although he had it slabbed in the late 90s.

Yesterday he finally sold it - and it went to a good home (not me). I told him to tell the wife that he sold that 1st coin, but is keeping her!