Value Analysis - 2021 Leaf Trinity Football 15-box Summary
ndleo
Posts: 4,136 ✭✭✭✭✭
I bought a total of 15 2021 Leaf Trinity Football Boxes. They are 5 Autos per box, 75 autos total. I buy these from several places when there is a good price. My total cost is a little less than $2500. That would be equal to 6 boxes of 2021 Donruss at current market prices (around $400 each).
I opened 13 so far and here are the big hits:
Trey Lance 3-color Patch Auto
Trey Lance Auto #/50
Justin Fields 2-color Patch Auto
Zach Wilson Auto x2
Jaylen Waddle Auto #/50 x2
Mac Jones 2-color Patch Auto #/50
Kyle Pitts Clear Auto #/40
Ja'Marr Chase Auto Redemption x2
Micah Parsons Auto
Printing Plate Auto 1/1 Rhamondre Stevenson
x10 $20 Rookie Autos (Ian Book, Kellon Mond)
I haven't hit a Trevor Lawrence yet, but I still have 2 boxes to open.
I know Leaf Draft products aren't everyone's favorite, but I think these boxes offer great value in this market. I don't think I could spend $2500 on ANY Panini product and get this type of haul.
Comments
I cracked #14 and #15. The best card was a Devonta Smith Patch Auto and a Ian Book 3-color Patch Auto.
Here are are some of the other cards I pulled. I redeem the Ja'Marr Chase Autos. hopefully I get a low number parallel.
Is there really that much value in unlicensed college cards? How do PSA 10's of Panini MLB do?
I sold the Mac Jones for around $250. Player/college collectors buy them. Leaf cards look much better than SAGE and the old Press Pass post-license loss.
I like the Trinity product for the RPAs.
I'm not a fan of sticker autos.
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
Then you don't buy much modern football because most brands use sticker except for the high end cards and some of the tougher pulls. All 2021 Donruss Football signatures I pulled were stickers, I pulled a Bill Romanowski sticker auto and a Ryan Switzer sticker auto out of 2 Donruss Hobby Boxes, $400 each.
Trinity usually has some outstanding patches
I like the product
I agree. I graded a few but for the most part I keep them in mag holders.
Again my point of view is value for money. Yes these cards are not CLC licensed. Yes unlike previous years, 2021 Trinity is all sticker autos. But I don't think you could spend $2500 on Panini FB products and get the same value. Plus the Leaf cards to me are better looking than most Panini college or Upper Deck college cards.
I would rather have a nice looking non-CLC license rookie auto of a top young QB than 90% of the licensed autos you pull from similar level Panini products. If one of the rookies blow up, the Leaf RPAs will pull less than Panini but I probably spent 25% of what it would have cost me to have a similar haul from Panini products.
I was curious as to what these were selling at to see if there is true value with this product. Ndleo had solid hits so I checked sold listings on eBay with the known hits.
Trey Lance 3-color Patch Auto $100
Trey Lance Auto #/50 $80
Justin Fields 2-color Patch Auto ** $110**
Zach Wilson Auto x2 $40 each
Jaylen Waddle Auto #/50 x2 $30 each
Mac Jones 2-color Patch Auto #/50 $300
Kyle Pitts Clear Auto #/40 $30
Ja'Marr Chase Auto Redemption x2 $150 each
Micah Parsons Auto $100
Printing Plate Auto 1/1 Rhamondre Stevenson** $50**
Devonta Smith Patch Auto $25
Ian Book 3-color Patch Auto $25
$1260 total
With the known hits he would be at half of what he paid. The real kicker is that the players are in their college uniforms which always means the value will drop quickly after the release of product in their NFL uniforms. The window of interest is always limited on new product in college uniforms.
Ultimately, even though you pay less than Panini product and get more hits it is nearly impossible to make back your money on this product and with that selling window so limited on this product that $1260 current value can easily be cut in half.
So what you're saying is that $2500 worth of Panini would have yielded a better return? Which Panini product would have n yielded similar cards? That is only 7 boxes of 2021 Donruss. In 7 boxes of Donruss, I would pull 15 great hits? Yes I may pull a $1000 Mac Jones, but in my experience it will likely be a scrub rookie or mid-level veteran auto. Based on your math, I would need pull in over $1260 from the 7 Panini Autos and 7 Panini Jersey Cards in the equivalent Donruss boxes to make it a better value than Leaf Trinity. Does anyone get that kind of luck when ripping modern?
Will Leaf cards be worth more than Panini? NO I never said that. In the next few years, will the Leaf cards I pulled be worth more than the likely cards I would pulled from a similar $2500 in Panini boxes? I would say YES. To me that is good value. You can't consistently make money ripping ANY modern product. Plus I have 60 more autographs cards with potential breakout stars (Elijah Mitchell).
2017 Leaf Mahomes Autos pull in a lot less than 2017 Panini Mahomes Auto, but I'm not crying if I have it.
I get your thinking and perhaps long term you will even make back your money and more as certain players from the 60 autos have some good games and the price skyrockets. The most important thing is you enjoyed the experience. The last thing I wanted to do was take away from that but I did want to be realistic in assessing the products current value.
So, lots of varying opinions of this. I know there are some hard core guys that hate any product that doesn't have a team logo or the player is in a college uni..... I get that. There is no denying that these are gorgeous cards, especially compared to 70% of the hot trash Panini puts out.
Here's what I can tell you from first hand experience with the product.
First off, doing your value comparison now is a little skewed as you are now 4 months past the release date. I can tell you that when they came out, it was hard to find a box that didn't get you at least close to your money back. Nearly every box would include at least one of the top players. Every 2-3 boxes would get you a Mac, Trevor, Fields that you would double or triple your money on right away.
Of course, prices on the singles have come down. Now the big question is it because single prices have come down on all products or that there just isn't the interest in the Leaf products. I can say I did very well with Leaf Trinity, Leaf Metal Draft and Leaf Pro Set Metal.
Odd thing I'm seeing from your break is that while you got some big names, you didn't hit any real low serial #'s other than the printing plate from what I can tell. That may be from getting them from different sources. Typically boxes from the same case, you are going to see some /15, /10, /5 stuff in there.
A couple other points--
It's funny to me is that an autograph on a sticker is still an autograph on a sticker, no matter what you slap it on.
What also keeps me awake at night is this... If I send for grading, let's just say a 1976 Topps Walter Payton and it has an adhesive sticker on it, that is going to drastically lower the grade. Yet, in today's world we don't take into consideration the damage the sticker has done to the surface of the card.
Anyhow, collect what you like. If you like the way a card looks of your favorite player, get it and enjoy it no matter what anyone else says. That's what collecting is all about anyhow!
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I did get low numbered serial numbers of other rookies not any of the big names. I don't buy cases of Leaf since they insert hot boxes - 2 big name rookies per box - in each case. I'm trying to fish for those and caught 3 in this go around.
As for grading, 2021 Trinity is not a good product to get graded. Like all recent modern FB products, the card quality has gone down from past years. I think some of it has to do with new packaging, which I am not a fan of. The sleeved cards was a better way to go than the card box they use now.
I know this board is mainly vintage baseball focused, but Leaf cards are much more popular than Press Pass or Sage ever were. Also there is demand for stars from the big schools. I was able to sell Kellen Mond/Ian Book cards for $15-$25 each all day long, and with the smaller checklist, I got 4-5 each from the boxes. All of the LSU, Alabama, and Ohio State scrub players also sold quickly.
I'm keeping the star QBs hoping one of them hits big time.
The Ja'Marr Chases arrived. Unlike Panini, Leaf actually sends the redemptions out in the same year. This took about one month. I was surprised that I got 2 RPAs. The redemptions didn't say it was for a Patch Auto, I thought it was for the base signature card.
I just pulled this Kyle pitts 1/1 printing plate and was just wondering how much I could get for it?