So-called "unopened" wax/cello packs (not graded)
Duldej
Posts: 15 ✭✭
I know well enough to refrain from buying "unopened" packs that were not graded and certified as such, from just any seller, but would you consider that a golden rule in regards to attempting to buy unopened packs, or could there be exceptions?
I bought 3 1979 topps baseball unopened wax packs, and 1 1980 topps baseball unopened cello pack, all of them ungraded, from bbce, which is the agent that does, in fact, certify unopened packs for PSA.
Although i want to continue to capitalize on the lower prices, and to take their word for it that the packs are unopened, from the 4 above mentioned packs, I got all commons, with one 70/30 vertical centering Phil Niekro, being the only exception. Also one of the '79 packs was not even sealed.
I hope it is just me whining about my bad ripping luck.
Ordinarily I would limit myself to graded-unopened, but with bbce, it is hard for me to tell. It would seem that you are truly getting a deal buying their unopened-ungraded, because in principle you're getting the same product.
By contrast I rip open a graded pack from some random seller and do indeed get one or more star cards, much of the time.
Comments
No. There are ways to tell if a pack has been resealed, and if it passes those tests there is no reason not to buy regardless of from whom.
That said, I don't know what you paid for those packs, but I'm sure it's not nearly enough for Steve to risk his reputation over. I find it almost impossible to believe that one could purchase bad packs from BBCE, and if you could it would likely be more valuable packs than these.
If I were opening packs, I would be completely fine with raw BBCE product. The only issue is subsequent resale, where graded packs will have a significantly higher resale value than loose BBCE wax, which can’t be wrapped.
Good. Thanks for chiming in. I would rather be wrong in this case.
I believe if you call Steve Hart at BBCE you will get a response that you will be satisfied with.
considering he is the one certifying it , you could have bought hte same 4 packs graded and got the same result. then your question would probably be do we have confidence in bbce's authentication ability.
considering how many packs I have opened that were all commons , I would say your results are nothing but ordinary
I have seen hundreds of packs opened of 1979 Baseball with absolutely nothing in the packs. It's actually rare to get a well-centered 1979 Baseball pack. Your results seem about right. There is a reason why you almost always lose opening vintage packs.
4 packs is a small sample size. I would not worry about BBCE product. The unfortunate reality is that ripping vintage packs is almost always a losing proposition these days with prices what they are. That said, it's the thrill of the chase that keeps us going as collectors!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Sorry you didn't get any good hits, but it happens. Like mentioned above we've all been there and done that. I'd say that nothing is impossible as far as something being missed on the packs, everyone is prone to making mistakes. But, all of us who have purchased, ripped, graded stuff from Steve have ample stories of his integrity. He is literally the only guy many will buy unopened from. Like the comments above mention, opening vintage is typically a losing proposition financially unless it's something you bought a long time ago and didn't pay today's prices for. Hope you continue to have fun collecting.
Collecting:
post world war II HOF rookie
76 topps gem mint 10 commons 9 stars
Arenado purple refractors(Rockies) Red (Cardinals)
successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
As thebbckid way back in the day once said...check the corners just as you would the cards themselves.
In a truly unopened pack, the corners should look neatly wrapped like a present. No really, try opening a cheap late 80s Topps pack, look through the cards and then try to get them back in the pack exactly as they were and then try to re-close the pack to make it look like it did unopened. VERY tough job to say the least.
D's: 54S,53P,50P,49S,45D+S,44S,43D,41S,40D+S,39D+S,38D+S,37D+S,36S,35D+S,all 16-34's
Q's: 52S,47S,46S,40S,39S,38S,37D+S,36D+S,35D,34D,32D+S
74T: 37,38,47,151,193,241,435,570,610,654,655 97 Finest silver: 115,135,139,145,310
73T:31,55,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,80,152,165,189,213,235,237,257,341,344,377,379,390,422,433,453,480,497,545,554,563,580,606,613,630
95 Ultra GM Sets: Golden Prospects,HR Kings,On-Base Leaders,Power Plus,RBI Kings,Rising Stars
I recently asked a math whiz friend about the odds when it comes to unopened packs, and to give the simple odds, in a rack pack of 36 cards for a year with around 700 cards, you have about a 25% chance of getting one of the 20 best cards. A pack with nothing but true commons seems improbable, since for any year there are many more than 20 stars in a set, but a pack with none of the best 20-30 cards is actually quite likely.
Funny how when people open packs and get commons they automatically want to accuse the seller of searching packs.
It isn't breaking news-- not every pack is a score.
Now I understand you may not know BBCE's reputation. However, I would never hesitate to buy from them.
I trust Steve implicity when it comes to wax packs but that doesn't mean you shouldn't learn everything you can about detecting altered wax that you can. If you decide to collect something, learn everything you can know about it. It's a great added layer of both security and understanding.
Arthur
Well yeah, if you figure 15 cards in a Topps pack and 792 cards in set, the odds of you getting any one card in particular are just under 1:53. Or for a 15 card Donruss/Fleer pack from a 660 card set (no worries about gum!), the odds are 1:44. Even for say, 1983 Topps you figure the odds of getting one of the "big four" of that year (Boggs/Gwynn/Ripken/Sandberg) in a pack are about 1:13.
And on top of THAT, if you figure a 15 cards x 36 packs in a whole carton of Topps wax, even if you get ZERO doubles/dups, those 540 cards only make up a little over 68% of the set. Well with Donruss and Fleer's 660 you get just under 82% of the set (at most) so I guess that's not too bad.
D's: 54S,53P,50P,49S,45D+S,44S,43D,41S,40D+S,39D+S,38D+S,37D+S,36S,35D+S,all 16-34's
Q's: 52S,47S,46S,40S,39S,38S,37D+S,36D+S,35D,34D,32D+S
74T: 37,38,47,151,193,241,435,570,610,654,655 97 Finest silver: 115,135,139,145,310
73T:31,55,61,62,63,64,65,66,67,68,80,152,165,189,213,235,237,257,341,344,377,379,390,422,433,453,480,497,545,554,563,580,606,613,630
95 Ultra GM Sets: Golden Prospects,HR Kings,On-Base Leaders,Power Plus,RBI Kings,Rising Stars
One thing I find interesting is the dichotomy between eras of collecting and how it relates to another past time. In the 70's/80's Topps had rather large sets of 700+ cards for Baseball which was their primary product. The mentality back then was to make it more challenging to get the players you want or complete your set so you would have to go back to the store and buy more products. It was tailored to profit utilizing this structure. The video game market of the '80s was similar whereas they would make the games intentionally difficult so the kid would have to keep pumping quarters into the machine.
In today's world, everything is tailored around the guaranteed hit. It's made in a way that every time you open a product you should feel that thrill of a hit and feel good about yourself which of course leads the buyer to want to buy more in order to capture that feeling again. The video game market has also changed its mentality making games much easier and dumbed down so that it guarantees the user a feeling of success each time and searching for more.
There is a reason why big corporations dedicate much of their budget towards understanding how the human mind works and how they can manipulate it!
Maybe it is just good luck, on the contrary, but as i intimated earlier, I plunked down $300+ on a '76 unopened-graded, and got a mint-looking hank aaron record breaker #1.
I also spent $300+ on a graded-unopened pack of '74 topps baseball and pulled a pristine pete rose.
Scans attached of both pulls.
I have only bought graded-unopened on three occasions, and am 2/3.
At any rate that's like 66% good luck that does not fit in with the going narrative that well-selected ungraded-unopened is equivalent to graded unopened.
Bbce has a hand in each scenario, above, so still I do wonder.
The Rose appears miscut the the Aaron is a nice looking card!
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Thanks.
The Rose is 2.5" x 3.5" , and centered*, front & back. PSA would not call it "MC."
*I did take a tape measure to it just now to notice that it's not 50/50 in all spots. Granted it's not perfect for that reason, but I would expect a 9, no?
So I have 3 shipments from 9-10 years ago that I never opened up. They were part of thefield service job. The shipped brown boxes always had the BBCE tape and shipping label. These are still in tact, so does this count as sealed or authenticated by BBCE? I know I asked this once before on another thread, but...
Previous CU user: jmmiller777
Baseball HOFer's-PSA6+
Heritage Sets
Kellogg's Graded-PSA 8+
60's Topps Sets-Raw
Anything that Catches My Attention
Could just be the tilt, then, if it's cut square but I see a PSA 8 at best with overall centering and the smudge to the right of Pete's name.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
The key question is do you know what's inside the box and do you have a tracking # email from UPS/USPS to match up to the box? I can see the appeal of a BBCE sealed box being cracked open for way pack provenance but I also think most people here would trust you based on your track record should you decide to sell any packs inside these boxes.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
I would say, at this point, I do not have a tracking email, but, aren't all of those group buys back then searchable on this site? I think I wrote the contents of each box as I would come home. Back then I was jmmiller777, but I lost the hotmail I was using at the time. I used to be jmmiller777, but could never recover when this site did a reset several years back. Anyway, just curious if I were to sell these sealed mailed boxes with 75 minis and such in them, would they be considered legit? BBCE certified but nt wrapped? Thanks grote...
Previous CU user: jmmiller777
Baseball HOFer's-PSA6+
Heritage Sets
Kellogg's Graded-PSA 8+
60's Topps Sets-Raw
Anything that Catches My Attention
I think you wouldn't have any trouble selling the packs from the group breaks as they are legit if their origin is BBCE. I'd just crack open the box to see what you have exactly~quantity, condition of the packs, etc.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Miller777,
While I have the wherewithal to abstain from opening packs, which has provided for a decent unopened collection. There’s zero % chance I could let a shipment from BBCE remain encased in its shipping box. Now that, to me, is the ultimate in discipline.
Very cool that you might have contents unknown in some. If you do have confirmations I would think there could be a premium to the right buyer.
John
Back in those days, BBCE would include a handwritten invoice/receipt on their carbon paper of the contents of the order in a very distinctivehandwriting. I think that, coupled with your history on this board/the original shipping boxes, would satisfy the majority of folks on this board.
No. I mean we'd all think they were legit, but a big reason people want packs slabbed or BBCE wrapped is to convince the next buyer they're legit. I wouldn't pay much for your sealed box from the third person down the line.
I wish I had your luck, I have a much bigger sample size and I will tell you that the odds of pulling prime time stars from vintage packs is much lower than 2 out of 3. If it was I would be retired!! lol
Fortunate for me, the smudge was on the scanner glass, and not the card, but the smaller dot above the "D" in "Reds" is real.
Maybe when "Value" comes back, I can capitalize on the investment.
Thanks guys, I appreciate your thoughts and insights.
Previous CU user: jmmiller777
Baseball HOFer's-PSA6+
Heritage Sets
Kellogg's Graded-PSA 8+
60's Topps Sets-Raw
Anything that Catches My Attention