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Has Aaron Rodgers lost his touch?

doubledragondoubledragon Posts: 23,269 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Sports Talk

I was reading an article about Aaron Rodgers and throwing the deep ball and was a bit surprised.

Why has Aaron Rodgers' deep passing become a problem?

There really isn’t much to worry about on the surface if you’re Matt LaFleur, head coach of the Green Bay Packers. Your team is 5-1, and they’ve recovered very nicely from a 38-3 opening day shellacking at the hands of the Saints. Your team ranks 11th overall in DVOA — fifth in offense, 23rd in defense, and your defense has improved from a very shaky start overall. You have Aaron Rodgers, one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, and outside of that opening disaster against the Saints, Rodgers is right on pace with some of his best seasons — maybe not to the point he was in the early 2010s when he was killing every defense he faces, but certainly better than average.

Rodgers ranks seventh in DYAR among quarterbacks, eighth in DVOA, and fifth in QBR. Rodgers has done this despite a banged-up offensive line, led by the absence of left tackle David Bakhtiari, who’s still recovering from the torn ACL he suffered last December.

So again, not much to worry about.

Until you look at Rodgers’ deep-ball statistics from last season to this season. Then, you might like to look a little deeper.

Washington vs. Packers preview Week 7
In 2020, including the playoffs (per Pro Football Focus), Rodgers attempted 89 passes of 20 or more air yards, completing 37 for 1,435 yards, 16.1 yards per attempt, 14 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 123.7. Only Daniel Jones (no, really), Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford had a higher deep-ball passer rating, only Tom Brady had more deep attempts, only Brady and Josh Allen had more deep completions, only Brady had more deep yards, and only Brady had more deep touchdowns.

Through the first six games of the 2021 season, the picture is very different. Rodgers has attempted 30 deep passes, but he’s completed just nine for 354 yards, 11.8 yards per attempt, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 48.5. Only Tua Tagovailoa and Ryan Tannehill have lower passer ratings on deep passes, only Murray, Trevor Lawrence, and Tagovailoa have more deep interceptions, and only Tannehill, Jacoby Brissett, Tagovailoa, and Justin Fields have matched Rodgers’ goose egg when it comes to touchdowns on deep passes.

This is not what one would expect from Aaron Rodgers. (Also, Miami’s passing game is even worse than we thought. Ugh). Rodgers famously told Bears fans that he owned them after a rushing touchdown, but when it comes to the deep ball, it’s Rodgers who’s been getting owned this season. Six games in, it’s enough of a problem to investigate why it’s so, and how it can be fixed.

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