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Should the Bills have went for it on 4th down?
doubledragon
Posts: 23,034 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
Heck of a game last night between the Bills and Titans, should the Bills have went for this on 4th down, or kicked the field goal to tie? Here's the play again:
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I'm not going to lie, I would have went for it also and tried to get out of there with the win.
Right play call. Lousy cleats. Better defense.
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Ralph
If they had made it ~ I love the call.... since they didn't ~ the coach ought to be fired....it's the world we live in today.
thats the right play call. poor execution. I know a QB that gains that yard EVERY TIME...
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Yes, and it's a shame because I picked the Bills to win and I was robbed, they can't do this to me, I'm in 2nd place and I needed this game, it's not fair, review the play, technical foul, technical foul I say!
I think it was the right decision, but wrong play call.
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We were spoiled all those years watching the sneak master
wrong call. considering the ease with which Buffalo had been able to move the ball against Tennessee the right call was to take the three points and go to Overtime.
the body of evidence coming into the game was all about the Buffalo stout defense, not about any running game. why would the Head Coach put all his money on the latter?? the smart thing to do was to feel confident the Defense could stop the Titans and that the Offense could score again and win in OT.
that decision was all based on the analytics BS that seems to be dominating the NFL. analytics is good when it works but Teams look really bad and stupid when it fails. sometimes it's the better decision to go "old school" and just win the game. consider the Chargers two games ago against Cleveland and those 4th down attempts they made. fast forward to the Ravens game: how'd that work out for them??
when it's 4th and seven at your own 38, punt the ball. when you're at the one yard line with 12 seconds left, kick the field goal and go to Overtime.
Absolutely not, if they had, and made it, I wouldn't have won the game.
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Coming into the game, yes it was about Buffalo's defense but their defense wasn't dominating Tennessee on this night. So I think that changes things with the decision to go into overtime. As does the fact that it isn't a must win, but going for it is a definite confidence booster in the long run. I really feel that, if you are going to go for it there, you go for the end zone.
apparently everyone in the thread agrees, the only thing I can offer is this: they went for it and they lost the game, therefor the Head Coach and everyone in this thread is wrong.
they may have missed the Field Goal. they may have made it and then lost the game anyway. going for it when they did failed, hence, it was the wrong thing to do. it ain't rocket science unless you insist that it must be.
one last point, (As does the fact that it isn't a must win) is what losers say, sour grapes, and critics point to just before the playoffs start. the game may haunt them if/when they have to travel to Kansas City or Baltimore for the AFC Championship game......................that could have been played in Buffalo if the Bills had beaten The Titans.
that right there is rocket science!!!
I agree in regard to Buffalos defense last night. if Tennesee had won the toss going into overtime, they probably would have ground the ball into that tired line and secondary and gone on a 7 minute TD drive.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
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Yes, the loss could theoretically hurt them in terms of home field advantage. But going for it definitely instills confidence in your team.
........................or the Bills would won the toss and marched down the field, scoring on a crossing pattern from 25 yards out!!
why is 50/50 on the coin toss a big thing but the 50/50 on the 4th down play not?? revised analytics might change a few minds after last night since no Team likes an expanded "L" column.
I got no problem with the call, Allen just slipped and that’s part of the risk of going for it, anything can happen and a catastrophic thing for the Bills did.
Going for it or kicking the FG are both a matter of opinion, there is no definitive right or wrong call in my opinion.
is this even a question? you go for it every day of the week and twice on Sunday. you're on the road. you're a yard away from a fresh set of downs. you're three yards away from the promise land and a W. if Allen gets the 1st but not a TD, they have a TO and enough time for 3 cracks at the end zone thru the air. go for it there -- as you should -- and you win that game far, far, far more often than you lose it.
the alternative is kicking a field goal like Matt Nagy would and have everyone question what type of genitalia you have in your pants. then everything is left up to chance. yeah, if I'm Buffalo i certainly want to rely on the coin toss and potentially be forced to rely on your sieve of a defense that has gotten zero pressure on Tannehill and has been gashed by Derrick Henry all night to save you. no thank you very much.
the bigger point is that Buffalo was exposed last night. are they a good team? yes they are. is Allen a stud? he still makes some questionable decisions throughout games, but yes he is. i really like him. but a) they still have no running game (does the Singletary & Moss combo scare anyone?), and b) we saw last night just how well their vaunted defense would hold up against a well-balanced, playoff-caliber offense.
a) and b) are going to be real problems for them come January, so let's apply some pressure to the brakes when it comes to crowning the Bills world champs
i will say that the bills defense handled the Chiefs offense a couple of weeks ago.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
the alternative is kicking a field goal like Matt Nagy would and have everyone question what type of genitalia you have in your pants.
all that machismo and they still lost, but their pants are loaded!!
I can't wait for 2Dueces to enter the thread with the Buffalo headlines --- "BILLS LOSE HAVE BIGGER JOHNSON"
turning to the Sports page we have the AFC EAST Standings:
American Football Conference
East Division
W L Genetalia Victories
Buffalo Bills 4 2 1
New England Patriots 2 4 0
New York Jets 1 4 0
Miami Dolphins 1 5 0
go Bills, where's 2Dueces??
@keets it has nothing to do with machismo. it has everything to do with having a brain
tell you what, let's run the last half minute of that game 100 times apiece. i'll sneak it 100 times, you kick the FG 100 times, then we'll see who wins the game more often. just the thought of the discrepancy makes me cackle with laughter.
if i was a player and had you as an HC, i'd demand a trade
@craig44 they did, but KC didn't have a semblance of a running game. Tennessee showed what a balanced attack could do to one of the NFL's best. come playoff time you're going to run into an offense like that, then pop tarts will get real
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You make a lot of great points. But I disagree about Buffalo's defense, in the sense that I still feel it is really good and feel last night is more of an anomaly. I do stand by my point (which no one else agrees with) that they shouldn't have sneaked but rather faked the sneak (or let Tennessee think they were sneaking) and went for the end zone.
If I was a player on the Bills, I certainly would have wanted to go for it, how would it look if Sean McDermott wouldn't have went for it? No, sorry guys but I don't believe in you enough to think that you can pick up that yardage.
I dont know if i would call it balanced. they did throw, but Tannehill was not effective. threw a pic, 200 yards, rating of 70.
kind of a mirror image of KC. Great run, below average passing
I think they just ran into the best RB in the league. by the way, 1/2 of his rushing yards came on 1 play. had they stopped that one big one it would have been a different story.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
you could very well be right, but Buffalo's defense cost them the game last night. they couldn't get off the field. Tennessee's last punt happened with 5 minutes remaining in the 2nd quarter. you can expect Josh Allen to be a stud, but asking him to be superhuman is not conducive to hoisting Lombardi's
As far as the play call goes, I don't have a problem with it, Josh Allen is a big guy and letting him use his big physical frame to pick up the first down is a very reasonable call.
Tannehill didn't have gaudy numbers overall, but in the 4th he was beyond effective. he threw for over 100 yards and didn't have a single incompletion the entire quarter.
and as for "had they stopped," well yeah, of course. but they didn't. and they couldn't. if Tannehill wasn't effective and Henry was pedestrian outside of that one run, i'd sure like to know why Tennessee wasn't forced to punt in the second half
Again I don't have a problem with the call, but you need to factor in the variables and one of the said variables is Allen slipping and falling on his face and not getting the first down. It’s a low % but stuff that shouldn’t happen does happen in Football games. It’s literally a game of inches and potential stupidity along with insanely low probability things actually happening.
The Bills got beat in week 6 nothing more nothing less, they will be there for the playoffs.
If anyone thinks Tennessee has a better shot at a Super Bowl appearance than the Bills then you need to rethink your position in my opinion.
I just want the world to know I was robbed of victory in the picks contest, this was a fluke, damn cleats!
my final thought on this game:
i can't believe how fast Derrick Henry is. i knew he could move, but when you're 250 and a d-back can't close the gap on you, that's straight up freakish
it has nothing to do with machismo. it has everything to do with having a brain
tell you what, let's run the last half minute of that game 100 times apiece.
the "machismor" comment was making fun of your post and had nothing to do with the Bills HC.
how would it look if Sean McDermott wouldn't have went for it
since he did and they didn't make it, he would look pretty smart. if they would have won the game in OT he'd look like a genius.
i said i was done but i have to respond to this
this is the second time you've "made fun" of the fact that i don't possess a shred of empathy for anyone who coaches with a play-not-to-lose mentality. in my opinion........when taking all factors into consideration.......many of which i have laid out in this thread already.......kicking a field goal in that situation is an extension of that type of mindset. if you cannot pick up one yard with your stud 240-lb quarterback to put yourself in the catbird seat to win a hotly-contested road game, then in my mind you do not deserve to win in the first place. and you know what? if the improbable does happen -- because there are very few certainties in life -- then that is a-freaking-ok. that loss did not end Buffalo's season. but at the very least, the entire organization can leave Tennessee knowing that they went for it full bore as opposed to overthinking things and playing scared, and ultimately i think there is something to be said for that and it'll benefit the team in the long run.
idk man, i just don't think that way, and i chose long ago not to live my life that way. i'm not opposed to coming up short, but i'll be damned if it's gonna happen because i approach any situation like a coward.
Outstanding Post. I agree with EVERYTHING you posted.
The only caveat is the NFL is a business of Winning, that’s the bottom line and in certain situations an argument can be made for playing with your mind and not your heart.
and i totally get the second part of your post, perk. but a contributing factor in Sean McDermott's decision had to be the realization that if that game goes to overtime and Tennessee wins the toss, there's a good chance that the game ends before Allen ever gets his hands on the ball. and that's because the Buffalo D had shown zero signs of being able to slow the Titans down -- especially in the 4th quarter. all Josh Allen really needed was ONE stop from his defense to put the game on ice, and it never happened.
so when you're 3 yards away from pay dirt and you take all possible options into consideration, the best course of action to win the game was an absolute no-brainer, imo. just so happened that it didn't work out, and THAT happens. many, many more times than not, it will.
now if you'll kindly excuse me, i'm going to saunter into the dairy thread
galaxy, I applaud your approach but it's the way fans think, not Head Coaches and not Franchise Owners. it makes me think of the term "winning ugly" and the old Al Davis mindset, "Just win, baby." with the former, at the end of a game it doesn't matter how you won, all that matters is the "W" in the column. with the Davis quote, well, that's self-explanatory.
there may seem like a victory in what the Bills did but it's hollow because they lost. had they kicked the field goal and eventually won, nobody would be castigating them for chickening out on the goal line.
--- below is the beginning of a story from the Buffalo News which points out some interesting stats.
NASHVILLE – The Buffalo Bills’ failures in the red zone finally bit them.
Josh Allen was stopped short on fourth-and-inches when he attempted a quarterback sneak at the Tennessee Titans’ 3-yard line with 22 seconds to play, sending the Bills into the bye week with a 34-31 gut punch of a loss Monday night at Nissan Stadium.
It was the Bills’ third trip to the red zone without a touchdown in the game, after settling for a pair of short field goals from Tyler Bass in the first half. They were 2 of 5 in the red zone. The Titans were 3 of 3.
“When you have the feeling of being able to move the ball and you kind of stall out there in the red zone, it’s never a good feeling, because we want to score points,” Allen said. “That’s our job. Score touchdowns. And, again, we just didn’t do a good enough job of that tonight.”
The Bills have scored only 16 touchdowns in 29 trips to the red zone this season, confounding for a team with so many weapons. That's more trips to the red zone than any team in the league, but just a 55.2% conversion rate, worse than all but six teams.
I think we need to look at the decision in context though. at the time, the bills were less than a yard from a first with a 240 pound QB. we all know how it turned out, so hindsight is easy. in the moment, the correct decision was made. at the end of the 4th quarter, you trust your OL to get enough push on a tired DL to get allen enough of a hole to get 2 feet.
no one can look into the future and see that Allen would slip on the turf.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Ok I am quoting this only because I couldn’t hit “Like” ( agree with everything you said again ) AND “LOL” at the same time, see you in the Dairy thread 😂😂😂😂
100% go for it. When you have the chance to win the game in a situation like that you go for it. Why leave it up to a coin flip? Take matters into your own hands. The message you would be sending your team if you didn't go for it would be poor. Very poor.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Well, I guess I'm the only guy who enjoyed the outcome of the game.
I didn’t bet on it so I didn’t care one way or another but if push comes to shove I would say I wanted the Bills to win.
Vrabel kinda rubbed me the wrong way with his Belichick imitation when asked about Brady returning to New England
I didn't read the other comments but if you go to OT do you really want to face the possibility of trying to stop Derrick Henry with a tired D? Frightening
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The play was not to win the game, a sneak from the 3 yard line is basically never going to score. It was to get 3 or so additional opportunities to try and win the game. I thought it was the wrong call at the time and still do. Players care that you win, this idea that the team rallies behind aggressive play calling has never actually been proven out or the inverse that being cautious somehow negatively impacts the overall psychology of the team.
I think we are going to eventually find that for the NFL, the analytics, win probability and other stats have been all getting it wrong. No different than when statisticians and even a Nobel Prize winner said that the "hot hand" in basketball didn't exist, yet every one that actually plays basketball knows it does. Turns out that the hot hand does exist. We will see the same thing with these 4th down decisions especially as more and more teams simply follow the same flawed formulas.
Robb