What are your results for CAC submissions of PCGS rattler's vs NGC fatty's?
86Saab
Posts: 211 ✭✭✭
I was curious to know if anyone else has kept track of their CAC submission results for PCGS rattlers vs NGC Gens 2 & 3?
I collect common stuff that has eye appeal for the grade and look for them in old holders so I can get the best of both worlds. Nothing crazy or rare, mostly Morgan, Peace, Walkers, Mercs and the like. I've had my CAC membership for almost a year and have only submitted 106 coins so maybe I have too small a sample size but so far I have found that PCGS rattlers fail to CAC at a much higher rate than NGC gens 2 & 3. They also suffer from a higher rate of PVC. I've had a high rate of "beaning" for PCGS gens 2.0-2.2 on the other hand, so I'm curious what others have seen.
My numbers are:
PCGS 51 total submitted (26 Rattlers) - 20 did not sticker (13 rattlers) - 5 w/PVC (all rattlers) - 3 gold beaned (2 rattlers & 1 gen 3.0)
NGC 55 total submitted (17 Gens 2.0-3) - 12 failed (1 Gen 3) - 1 for PVC ( Gen 4) - 5 got gold beans (1 gen 2.0 & 3 gen 3's & 1 gen 4)
Obviously all this is subjective due to differing levels of expertise and such but has anyone noticed any patterns with various generations of NGC and PCGS? Or found similar results?
For all those holder and bean haters, I know, I used to be one of you. They say it's a slippery slope. It is, first it's the slab, then the old holder calls to you and the next thing you know your being tempted by the gold bean and it's over! Damn shiny stickers!
Since we all like pictures, here's some of my beaned old holders. (Sorry, camera is on the fritz so pictures aren't great)
Comments
I think the rattlers have been more picked over and upgraded hence why the remaining fail at a high rate that you’ve experienced.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
I think you mean gen 2, 3 and 4 for fatties. Unless you just focus on the gold foil rev and ignore the holos.
This is the next thing I wanna break down on my spreadsheet... I'll get there sooner or later.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
You’ve spent over $1000 on stickers for extremely common coins. Unless you though every one had the chance for gold, wouldn’t that money be better spent on just buying more coins? Why bother with an XF Walker or an MS62 Morgan?
It seems like you already have a good eye judging from your high rate of success.
Interesting results... also cool to see those group shots.
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This data doesn't tell you anything about rattlers or fatties as a whole, it only tells you what is available on today's picked-over market. Many of those coins were probably tried at CAC before you bought them and then sold when they didn't sticker.
I bought almost all my rattlers and fatties from 2000-2014.
My sticker rates were about 90% for both PCGS and NGC, but the rates were higher on the earlier purchased slabs.
Of the 10% that failed, PCGS had a higher failure rate for PVC. NGC had a higher failure rate for toning that is too dark.
NGC had a slightly higher rate for gold stickers, but I would usually average 3-4 gold stickers on a submission of 20 fresh old holders.
When I look at the old holders for sale today compared to what used to be available, I can tell many are coins I wouldn't even bother sending in.
In old holders, your odds of hitting a gold bean are much higher in 62 and lower grades than 63 and up. That's why I'm guessing these were subbed.
I have submitted over 500 Morgans to CAC and never made a gold bean... Mostly because I do not sub MS62 and lower Morgans as I do not really collect the better dates. That is just for a sense of perspective.
He has 8 gold stickers there. That is a minimum of $800 in added value. Gold CAC stickers aren't cheap.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
^That sounds right.
Very anecdotcal evidence, small sample size, and not exact numebrs here (probably 30 coins total over the last 3-4 years):
I'd say my %s are
Rattlers = 60%
NLF (no line fatties) = 80%
OGH = 50%
Standard coins you find in these too - Morgans, commems, peace
My only Gold sticker ever was in a Fatty too.
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A friend of mine sent this in for me years ago. I thought it deserved a gold sticker... it's so incredibly clean for a 64 though I suppose the luster is a bit muted given the tarnish.
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@DelawareDoons I've sent in 12 Gen 4's with only two failing but I was focusing on the Gen 2' & 3's with the gold foil rear logo.
@david3142 I do hope for gold but in almost every case the green bean adds more value than the cost payed and overall it's added more value to my collection than I've spent. I've not sent in many that I didn't expect to have that outcome. The two XF Walkers are consecutive certs, unusual for such common lower grade coin in an OGH and while I'm not interested in selling them would command a price that is more than I've got into them and I thought one might get a gold. Sure I could have spent the money on more coins but I see the money spent as an investment as much as a fun endeavor to chase the gold bean.
@Catbert & @Kove That makes perfect sense given the craze over cracking rattlers in the past.
I do not have the exact numbers or percentages, and I would agree with much that has been posted. If you were buying the old holders ten or twenty years ago the odds are that you have better coins that will have higher percentages. Unless the old holders you are buying now came from old long held collections the odds are that you are buying the the picked over items or coins that dealers did not feel merited sending in to CAC for financial reasons.
I sure wish that CAC would review the old white ANACS holders, now that would be an interesting comparison.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I'd love to contribute to this, but still waiting for new submittors to be accepted. I've got a bunch for them, but every time I check, no acceptance.
@coinbuf I absolutely agree with you on the ANACS holders but I'd like to see it for all generations of their holders.
Fatties win by far says wholesaler friend.
Honestly, the only way to do the study is to buy the coins and send them in without looking at the coins. Otherwise, you are cherry picking the populations and the results simply reflect your eyes not the holder.
Even the holders themselves are already hopelessly subjective as the greatest gems have been broken out and upgraded in large numbers.
The grey dark coins will tone darker over time as exposure to the atmosphere continues. It’s simply a matter of physics like iron (Titanic) will sink.
Your hope - Will the grey / dark ones bring high eBay bids now for you resulting in successful liquidation? And will that recover the $$ you spent on stickering?
Absolutely! Only a double-blind trial would produce scientifically accurate results. And you would probably a sizeable sample.
As Sweet Brown sings, "Ain't nobody got time for that."
Is there a list maintained by CAC that lists coins that have made the grade and those that haven’t by TPG number?
They do not publicly record failure to sticker
@Meltdown love that 86 Morgan she's a beauty.
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For coins that succeed only:
https://caccoin.com/lookup/
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
I had a dream , years ago .... when JA just got started with CAC. I remember having to stand at the position of attention with my box of PCGS graded coins. After one of his guys took the coins from me, I had to do an "about face" and march out. It was so militaristic that I've never submitted even one coin to CAC. Bought a few with stickers over the years. In short; I salute them.
No CAC for you!