Flood of mid-grade 90's basketball slabs coming?
Ahmanfan
Posts: 4,389 ✭✭✭✭
It seems like i'm seeing a huge influx of semi-junk 1990's basketball coming online on eBay recently. IE Kobe low end RC's, Base, Jordan base, etc in grades 6-8. It seems folks new to grading are just now getting cards back in bulk. They didn't know what to grade, and graded a bunch of junk, and are now seeing prices falling and trying to recoup their $$ all at once. I would have to think 90's and 2000's basketball are about to really crater (aside from ultra rarities, IE Precious Metal Gems, etc). I think there will be great opportunities in the next 3-6 months to pick up cards you might need for your collection.
Thoughts?
Collecting
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
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check the last few pages of the graded poppage thread for the figures. but yes. you are correct.
1990 Fleer Basketball coming back down to earth for sure.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
Then those folks will spread the word of how they lost money in cards and warn others to avoid. Likely via mass social media postings. Especially after paying more money, as grading fees were massively inflated overnight, to grade many cards then they they will be able to realistically can get for them.
Minutia aside, this COVID (then speculator and manipulator) induced Collectible Card Bubble has gone the way every other asset type bubble has gone for century's. Everyone likes to think their bubble is different, everyone who thinks like that is proven wrong, sometimes at their own great expense.
A percentage of folks made serious bank but with all things like this the majority do loose. Partly due to manipulation, and partly due to their own greed and partly due to fear of missing out as reacting out of FEAR is seldom fiscally sound.
As I've stated in many of my posts; bubbles and speculators never leave an interest (in this case Trading Cards) in any less than much worse shape then when they initially jumped in.
Positive Note: Overall all this will be good for the real collectors - possibly very good. To all the true collectors out there never forget exactly how you were treated when certain company's/firm's where riding high on the hog. Leaner times for them are a comin', not a question of if, merely of when...
P.S. Above pertains to items in which high supply, example the Junk Wax stuff which I contend for most sets started in 1982. Lower supply stuff will likely level more-so than drop too much as long as it remains lower supply. As for true Vintage and true supply scarce stuff I've no guesses.
Will Junk Wax Card prices drop to pre-covid? Wll one of the very cornerstones of finance; law of supply and demand is set now to determine. I think some Cards yes will go back to those levels, some will maintain some of their gains, some may even retain most of their gains. To dig up an old overused example of mine, the highly abundant ubiquitous 1990 Leaf PSA10 Frank Thomas definitely could scrape near it's pre-covid numbers over the next 6-10 months.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I agree with you. The surprise I saw during the bubble was that so many people on this forum didn't see it as a bubble, they thought all prices would continue to soar. It never made sense to me.
Don
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That's very normal human behavior/psychology during a boom or bubble. The mind comes up with a litany of reason (aka excuses) why the particular situation is different thus not subject to the realities of a bubble. I recall the whole social media aspect being played up on this forum as to why this boom would continue unabated.
The only thing that slows a bubble from bursting is:
As Keynes said, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
There is still quite a way to go to the floor of Junk Wax era and later years is reached. Not just for mid grade but especially high grade. The bigger the boom the bigger the bust
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
The Chantilly show was mobbed for what it’s worth, even with the National on the horizon.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
was it technically a bubble though? kinda mixed on exactly what to call it. a flood perhaps. a bubble indicates a “pop”. obviously certain things got flooded and popped. however a ton of stuff is still climbing like crazy on a daily basis. when tuplipmania ended. everything tulip died. when the housing bubble popped, all real estate crashed in some fashion. even the cards that were irrationally hot have not crashed. sure a card is down 26% from its HIGH. but thats not a pop. thats not a crash. its still up 80% from where it was pre-“bubble”. this not that. not by a long shot. its interesting to say the least and a term will probably evolve into something more fitting.
Were only in the start of the panic phase. As more and more fly-by-nighters get submissions back they will try to recoup some of their lost expense... Still you may be correct it's not totally a bubble in that vintage items may level or rise. However my contention has always been Junk Wax and newer is/was the bubble not Vintage and Blue Chip or at least the non market manipulated Blue Chips.
Long, long way down still to go on the 1982-1986 Pre-Junk Wax and 1986- Junk Wax era. Some cards will even drop below pre-COVID levels as the "Instagram crowd" takes their losses and exits and publicly bad-mouths the hobby. There will be a very good price times ahead for true collectors of 1982-200? cards.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Long live lower prices! Hope to hold my cards for the rest of my life and each 10% drop in price is 10% more I can add to my collection next year.
There are probably 100,000 Jordan cards from 1990-1996 sitting at PSA right now. If supply and demand is a real thing there is NO WAY they do not plummet as they’re unleashed on the market in the next 6 months.
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
but jordans the goat! 😉
About to be more plentiful than Pete Rose and Bob Feller autographs combined!
wouldn't it be accurate to talk about the abundance of base rookies from all of the recent years as well then? At least the 80's-90's cards are 30-40 years old and tougher to get a PSA 10 on...the number of Zion and Ja base Prizm PSA 10s could be 35k+ each when the dust settles...as plentiful as the 1990 Fleer Jordan is, there are currently only 4k PSA 10s...to each his own, but if people are truly talking about scarcity as being a driving force to value, then why are Ja and Zion base PSA 10s going to be desirable in 5 years when the pop report has ballooned to 35k? I know I'd much rather have a 30 year old PSA 10 of Jordan than a 35k pop card of someone who still has a lot to prove....
first they are rookie cards. huge difference there. but zion and ja can still have performance related spikes. they could also tank. so it's a gamble. as for jordan, it'll be hard for them to ever spike like they just did. the numbers coming out will continue to drive those cards down with very little to help them make any serious gain. sure you can hold forever and see extremely slow but steady growth. whereas zi/ja will spike IF and after each mvp, crazy performance, record breaker, finals wins, each preseason, etc. the price of the rookie cards will obviously look minuscule now compared to 10 years from now regardless of pop count. even if there are 30k 10s, they should be sitting at $1500 min. 90 jordan 10 w 15k? maybe $1000 vs the 86 at a million plus by then. inflation or asteroid strike not calculated in.
also have to keep in mind, rcs will always be in demand. by 1990 jordan had 1000s of different cards in the midst of the junk wax era to go after. yes zion has a ton just in rookie year, but they are all rookies. not 4th year base+ with 3-4 coming outta each box ripped.
^.long story short: when ya order fajitas, people look over bc of the sizzle, not for the steak. 😉
I like this take on it, I was thinking that the massive influx of 2018+ cards would tank the market, but then you also have to think about who is buying and selliing them. The number of collectors involved in that market are going to be dwarfed by the flippers, speculators, investors, gamblers. Whereas the older cards are going to naturally be more in demand with collector types wanting to hold for longer, of course there are some exceptions, MJ cards being a good example.
damnit I don't know how to insert Homer correctly but sizzling fajitas are unreal. Plus it's one of those items that's almost impossible to recreate at home.
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Here ya go @Cakes
Agreed. If Zion, Luke, and Ja go to the HOF I don't think the prices still can sustain where they are. Too much product.
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
too much product compared to "junk wax"? lol.
there is absolutely nothing special about the 90 jordan. and there will be a ton of 10s when the smoke clears. it's no different than the 10,000 different cards pumped out from fleer, topps, upper deck, skybox, etc that came after it either. and those millions of cards will never be rookie cards so you'll have millions of cards all fighting for collecting dollars. and then still all that unopened that's still out there from all those different manufacturers.. aka way too much product.
i will take a 2019 future hof rc every day. it's a big “if” if they even make the hall though. flops and injuries happen every day.
what's an '89 ud griffey 9 go for?
what's an '90 ud griffey 9 go for?
why the huge difference?
would you rather have a ‘89 ud smoltz 10
or a ‘90 griffey ud 10?
smoltz was great, but not near the popularity or hobby presence of the kid, imo.
even though griffey was a bigger star, id take the smoltz rc all day long as opposed to a second year griffey. both have “too much” product.
heres a final question.
would you rather have an ‘90 ud griffey 10
or an ‘89 ud griffey 9?
id take the ‘89 griffey 9.
of course there are anomalies to this like the '71 munson, '76 brett, '52 mantle, etc.
anyways, just my opinion. fun debate for sure!
Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. I suspect there are a lot of folks that where bitten by the junk wax era that will be bitten again by the same cards being junk slabs. It hurts so good.
I am however positive on the future of the hobby because while much of the growth was from flippers, the bullish market also brought in a countless number of former collectors - of which I'd think many will stick around. So many in their 40's and 50's on recently became aware that the hobby was still alive.
That’s me to a “T.” I was out of it for a long time and now I’m hooked. While I will be one of the folks looking to sell a few graded Jordans from the junk wax era, it will be done solely to recoup grading costs (eg, keep a 9 or 10, sell the others for a modest sum). Any profit will be for the long-term purpose of adding to my collection and my son’s.
I would go far enough that I would rather have a ‘51 Mantle than a ‘52, a ‘75 Brett than a ‘76 and a ‘70 Munson to a ‘71 (though as a HOF collector don’t collect Munson).
I know I am in the minority on this.
The one counter point to your argument is Mantle - in most years he is the most expensive card even over the rookie in the same year. ‘52 more than Mathews even though they are both high number, ‘56 more than Aparicio, ‘58 more than Cepeda, ‘61 more than Santo, Williams or Marichal, ‘62 more than Brock or Perry, ‘65 more than Morgan, Carlton or Perez, 66 more than Palmer. Probably more I am missing but too lazy to look them up. Jordan is more Mantle than Griffey.
i was just speaking in terms of the super rare occasion that the second year card in a grade higher is worth more than a rookie card in a grade lower.
a 76 brett 9 is worth more than a 75 brett 8.
a 71 munson 9 is worth more than a 70 munson 8 (maybe even a 9)
a 52 mantle 8 is prolly right at a 51 mantle 9 (could have changed recently)
very few that fit that bill. but, yes i agree and you kinda drive home my point. most would rather have the rookie card. rookie cards are kings.
Just saying, If you look at Jordan from 86 through 96 I bet he has less different cards produced than Zion in 2019. It's just crazy. And of those different issues, the pops on some are just crazy high.
Either way, I think both are sunk in the next 6-12 mo with the backlog coming online for both. If you're waiting for Wilt, Russell, Mantle, Mays, and Ruth deals, I think you're out of luck. There will be deals to be had on the high pop stuff though.
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
Much obliged nam!
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it's prolly pretty close. i'd still rather have a rc than a 12th year base. and when we are talking submitting there is pretty much zero room for error on those. get a 9 and you've prolly got your money back. get an 8 and you've lost. with how hard theyve become, i'm sure a ton of folks are in for disappointment as that michael jordan sub special keeps churning out all those cards under tighter standards.
This fits me as well, and I think there are a lot of us that want our nostalgic 80s cards in slabs.
People look over because they are sincerely terrified that someone would attempt to eat that many Calories, but maybe I'm sharing too much