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What percentage of coins you submit to PCGS or CAC are ‘no brainers’, how many are long shots?

panexpoguypanexpoguy Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭✭✭

Just curious as to what part of your submissions are coins that you have some doubts about but hope will succeed versus the coins that you have no doubts about?

I tend to submit coins I have confidence in and weed out coins that I have more hope for, than confidence in, and then send in the accumulation so the hope crushing is concentrated. I would say about 10% of my candidates are long shots. What about you? Do you feel it is worth a gamble just because, or do you determine a cost/benefit scenario based on potential upside?

Comments

  • WalkerfanWalkerfan Posts: 9,663 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don't usually gamble with longshots.

    Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍

    My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):

    https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/

  • DelawareDoonsDelawareDoons Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I submit everything it makes sense to submit. Shipping costs are negligible.

    "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."

  • panexpoguypanexpoguy Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DelawareDoons said:
    I submit everything it makes sense to submit. Shipping costs are negligible.

    Do you ever submit things just because you want them to succeed at a certain level even if your gut says they won’t. For example, a coin that is toned and attractive but you suspect it is AT or, at least, helped to tone in a certain way?

  • 3keepSECRETif2rDEAD3keepSECRETif2rDEAD Posts: 4,285 ✭✭✭✭✭

    …I sent so many junk widgets to JA over the span of two years that I could have paid for double Lasik surgery, in shipping costs alone ;)

  • oih82w8oih82w8 Posts: 12,511 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I only send in to CAC what I think would good candidates... JA has given the 👎on quite a few head scratchers.

    oih82w8 = Oh I Hate To Wait _defectus patientia_aka...Dr. Defecto - Curator of RMO's

    BST transactions: dbldie55, jayPem, 78saen, UltraHighRelief, nibanny, liefgold, FallGuy, lkeigwin, mbogoman, Sandman70gt, keets, joeykoins, ianrussell (@GC), EagleEye, ThePennyLady, GRANDAM, Ilikecolor, Gluggo, okiedude, Voyageur, LJenkins11, fastfreddie, ms70, pursuitofliberty, ZoidMeister,Coin Finder, GotTheBug, edwardjulio, Coinnmore, Nickpatton, Namvet69,...
  • mannie graymannie gray Posts: 7,259 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have a "maybe" box, and if I feel like it I will toss a couple in each submission.
    The ones I do best with are the potential FS Jeffersons, as the standards are well, so far as my experience shows.....not really standardized.😆

  • panexpoguypanexpoguy Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I sent my ‘maybe’ pile in. 10 coins total, 7 are the ‘maybe’ pile. Of the 7. I am hoping for any 2 to grade. But one way or another, I will know. Maybe that is what will make it worth it?

  • DelawareDoonsDelawareDoons Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 6, 2021 6:54PM

    @panexpoguy said:

    @DelawareDoons said:
    I submit everything it makes sense to submit. Shipping costs are negligible.

    Do you ever submit things just because you want them to succeed at a certain level even if your gut says they won’t. For example, a coin that is toned and attractive but you suspect it is AT or, at least, helped to tone in a certain way?

    I have 3 Franklins there right now I'm 99% sure are gonna get the ol' Red PVC sticker lol. So yeah.

    I used to cherrypick my subs then he gold beaned a few I thought wouldn't bean. I figured he has forgotten more than I will ever know about coins so picking his brain for $12.50 per coin (back in the day) he likes was a hell of a deal.

    I've only chatted with him 2-3 times over 8 years, and yet, I give him more credit than just about anybody else (besides myself) for refining my eye for quality material.

    "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."

  • BryceMBryceM Posts: 11,850 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I don’t think there’s an easy answer to this. I can’t predict what CAC might do and I’ve been surprised plenty of times. For some coins the sticker means nothing. For others, the sticker anointing ceremony lifts it to otherworldly realms.

  • panexpoguypanexpoguy Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DelawareDoons said:

    @panexpoguy said:

    @DelawareDoons said:
    I submit everything it makes sense to submit. Shipping costs are negligible.

    Do you ever submit things just because you want them to succeed at a certain level even if your gut says they won’t. For example, a coin that is toned and attractive but you suspect it is AT or, at least, helped to tone in a certain way?

    I have 3 Franklins there right now I'm 99% sure are gonna get the ol' Red PVC sticker lol. So yeah.

    I used to cherrypick my subs then he gold beaned a few I thought wouldn't bean. I figured he has forgotten more than I will ever know about coins so picking his brain for $12.50 per coin (back in the day) he likes was a hell of a deal.

    I've only chatted with him 2-3 times over 8 years, and yet, I give him more credit than just about anybody else (besides myself) for refining my eye for quality material.

    Yeah, I am sensing a couple of reds myself. But I learned to spot pvc by keeping old submissions. Pretty sure I learned the most valuable lessons from the coins that didn’t make it.

  • DelawareDoonsDelawareDoons Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @panexpoguy said:

    @DelawareDoons said:

    @panexpoguy said:

    @DelawareDoons said:
    I submit everything it makes sense to submit. Shipping costs are negligible.

    Do you ever submit things just because you want them to succeed at a certain level even if your gut says they won’t. For example, a coin that is toned and attractive but you suspect it is AT or, at least, helped to tone in a certain way?

    I have 3 Franklins there right now I'm 99% sure are gonna get the ol' Red PVC sticker lol. So yeah.

    I used to cherrypick my subs then he gold beaned a few I thought wouldn't bean. I figured he has forgotten more than I will ever know about coins so picking his brain for $12.50 per coin (back in the day) he likes was a hell of a deal.

    I've only chatted with him 2-3 times over 8 years, and yet, I give him more credit than just about anybody else (besides myself) for refining my eye for quality material.

    Yeah, I am sensing a couple of reds myself. But I learned to spot pvc by keeping old submissions. Pretty sure I learned the most valuable lessons from the coins that didn’t make it.

    Absolutely learned the best lessons by scrutinizing the coins that missed. There's just some smaller lessons in coins that bean that you didn't think would, that sometimes the issue you're focusing on is not a deal breaker.

    "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."

  • privatecoinprivatecoin Posts: 3,591 ✭✭✭✭✭

    100% long shots.....

    Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc

  • panexpoguypanexpoguy Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @privatecoin said:
    100% long shots.....

    No missions, no medals!

  • AlexinPAAlexinPA Posts: 1,458 ✭✭✭✭✭

    CAC = None.

  • KccoinKccoin Posts: 1,086 ✭✭✭✭✭

    A mix of coins that I think will grade X that would become "worth" Y, coins for the PC that I would like w/TV's, and about 15% long shots in the mix.

    I can only make a shot if I take it. The misses help understand the grading standard and hopefully help give you a better eye to hit your next shot.

  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 8,718 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If coins justify the grading fee I submit them to Pcgs.

    Coins & Currency
  • panexpoguypanexpoguy Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Well, it was an interesting submission. Just got the results on a 10 coin submission. Of the three coins I thought were sure things, only two passed. Of the seven in the long shot pile, three passed, including the lowest value coin, which was the one I most hoped would pass. This hobby makes you do crazy things.

  • skier07skier07 Posts: 4,271 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Monetarily it really doesn’t make a significant difference if you send one or twenty coins to CAC. The shipping is roughly the same but the insurance will cost more. If you submit 20 coins and worst case scenario none sticker you’re out shipping fees and whatever administrative fee CAC charges but not the $16 they charge if the coin stickers. So there really isn’t much of a downside sending longshots to CAC once a coin has a certain dollar value.

  • DelawareDoonsDelawareDoons Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 9, 2021 8:18AM

    @panexpoguy said:
    Well, it was an interesting submission. Just got the results on a 10 coin submission. Of the three coins I thought were sure things, only two passed. Of the seven in the long shot pile, three passed, including the lowest value coin, which was the one I most hoped would pass. This hobby makes you do crazy things.

    I should share my recent results. 13/18, and I had figured 11/18. 2 gold CAC, and I thought I had a shot at 2, but one was a surprise.

    "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."

  • panexpoguypanexpoguy Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @skier07 said:
    Monetarily it really doesn’t make a significant difference if you send one or twenty coins to CAC. The shipping is roughly the same but the insurance will cost more. If you submit 20 coins and worst case scenario none sticker you’re out shipping fees and whatever administrative fee CAC charges but not the $16 they charge if the coin stickers. So there really isn’t much of a downside sending longshots to CAC once a coin has a certain dollar value.

    I agree with you. But I also like to keep in mind that CAC is a business and that they would lose money on reviewing a submission that went 0 for 20. So if I am able to determine with high confidence that a coin has an issue, I don’t send it. I tend to send in the ones that I think are B coins for the grade when I have a particular goal for a set and coins that fit the set are hard to find. I know JA isn’t going broke, but I try to respect people’s time. 5 of the seven ‘maybes’ were for one CAC set I am working on. I would guess that 60% of the candidates I purchase never end up being sent because they are so bad. So I have to gamble on marginals.

  • DelawareDoonsDelawareDoons Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @panexpoguy said:

    @skier07 said:
    Monetarily it really doesn’t make a significant difference if you send one or twenty coins to CAC. The shipping is roughly the same but the insurance will cost more. If you submit 20 coins and worst case scenario none sticker you’re out shipping fees and whatever administrative fee CAC charges but not the $16 they charge if the coin stickers. So there really isn’t much of a downside sending longshots to CAC once a coin has a certain dollar value.

    I agree with you. But I also like to keep in mind that CAC is a business and that they would lose money on reviewing a submission that went 0 for 20. So if I am able to determine with high confidence that a coin has an issue, I don’t send it. I tend to send in the ones that I think are B coins for the grade when I have a particular goal for a set and coins that fit the set are hard to find. I know JA isn’t going broke, but I try to respect people’s time. 5 of the seven ‘maybes’ were for one CAC set I am working on. I would guess that 60% of the candidates I purchase never end up being sent because they are so bad. So I have to gamble on marginals.

    I try to be more selective on the buy side so my general success rate on actual subs is higher than it would be if I was just blindly buying/subbing. 11/18 is 61%+, so even though I was VERY sure 3 of those Franklins wouldn't bean, I sent 'em anyway. And look, I was wrong about one. Which is why I keep sending 'em all. Selective purchasing is more cost-effective than selective submitting.

    Just my point of view, ymmv. :)

    "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."

  • panexpoguypanexpoguy Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DelawareDoons said:

    @panexpoguy said:

    @skier07 said:
    Monetarily it really doesn’t make a significant difference if you send one or twenty coins to CAC. The shipping is roughly the same but the insurance will cost more. If you submit 20 coins and worst case scenario none sticker you’re out shipping fees and whatever administrative fee CAC charges but not the $16 they charge if the coin stickers. So there really isn’t much of a downside sending longshots to CAC once a coin has a certain dollar value.

    I agree with you. But I also like to keep in mind that CAC is a business and that they would lose money on reviewing a submission that went 0 for 20. So if I am able to determine with high confidence that a coin has an issue, I don’t send it. I tend to send in the ones that I think are B coins for the grade when I have a particular goal for a set and coins that fit the set are hard to find. I know JA isn’t going broke, but I try to respect people’s time. 5 of the seven ‘maybes’ were for one CAC set I am working on. I would guess that 60% of the candidates I purchase never end up being sent because they are so bad. So I have to gamble on marginals.

    I try to be more selective on the buy side so my general success rate on actual subs is higher than it would be if I was just blindly buying/subbing. 11/18 is 61%+, so even though I was VERY sure 3 of those Franklins wouldn't bean, I sent 'em anyway. And look, I was wrong about one. Which is why I keep sending 'em all. Selective purchasing is more cost-effective than selective submitting.

    Just my point of view, ymmv. :)

    Agreed. The challenge is that I buy 90%+ of my coins online and only see them in hand when they arrive. Many folks are adept at hiding issues in images. The upcoming Worlds Fair of Money will be the first time in three years that I will get to see coins in the flesh before buying.

  • DelawareDoonsDelawareDoons Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @panexpoguy said:

    @DelawareDoons said:

    @panexpoguy said:

    @skier07 said:
    Monetarily it really doesn’t make a significant difference if you send one or twenty coins to CAC. The shipping is roughly the same but the insurance will cost more. If you submit 20 coins and worst case scenario none sticker you’re out shipping fees and whatever administrative fee CAC charges but not the $16 they charge if the coin stickers. So there really isn’t much of a downside sending longshots to CAC once a coin has a certain dollar value.

    I agree with you. But I also like to keep in mind that CAC is a business and that they would lose money on reviewing a submission that went 0 for 20. So if I am able to determine with high confidence that a coin has an issue, I don’t send it. I tend to send in the ones that I think are B coins for the grade when I have a particular goal for a set and coins that fit the set are hard to find. I know JA isn’t going broke, but I try to respect people’s time. 5 of the seven ‘maybes’ were for one CAC set I am working on. I would guess that 60% of the candidates I purchase never end up being sent because they are so bad. So I have to gamble on marginals.

    I try to be more selective on the buy side so my general success rate on actual subs is higher than it would be if I was just blindly buying/subbing. 11/18 is 61%+, so even though I was VERY sure 3 of those Franklins wouldn't bean, I sent 'em anyway. And look, I was wrong about one. Which is why I keep sending 'em all. Selective purchasing is more cost-effective than selective submitting.

    Just my point of view, ymmv. :)

    Agreed. The challenge is that I buy 90%+ of my coins online and only see them in hand when they arrive. Many folks are adept at hiding issues in images. The upcoming Worlds Fair of Money will be the first time in three years that I will get to see coins in the flesh before buying.

    I buy everything I send to CAC online. :) I think I've bought less than 20 slabs at shows over the years.

    "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."

  • Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 8,718 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 9, 2021 6:06PM

    One guy told me it’s like playing the lottery - he sends anything to them with MV over $300. “If just 60 pct come back w sticker I win big time bc CPG much higher on these than $15 I paid lol. I had 2 of 4 MS65 $20 DE come back on these CPG about a grand higher on CAC ones super deal for me. A lotta guys banking as they scoffed up in this bull market do the math.”

    Coins & Currency
  • ColonelJessupColonelJessup Posts: 6,442 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 10, 2021 7:50AM

    26% of my "no-brainers" work, as do 37% of my "long-shots". My biggest scores are on coins that go down a point and are bought as 1 1/2 pt upgrades by my friends. I smile enigmatically as I buy them fine wines. Most collectors can't play this game. It's not about running out of coin money. It's about @MrEureka having an exquisite ($$$) palate. :p

    It would be more like a lottery if you could add in roulette.

    "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
  • ColonelJessupColonelJessup Posts: 6,442 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 10, 2021 12:19PM

    I just noticed that the 1921 $20 NGC PF64+ CAC is coming up for auction, having previously appeared as a PCGS MS63 selling for $1,495,000. That was an excellent crack-out. :#

    "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
  • MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 24,394 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ColonelJessup said:
    26% of my "no-brainers" work, as do 37% of my "long-shots". My biggest scores are on coins that go down a point and are bought as 1 1/2 pt upgrades by my friends. I smile enigmatically as I buy them fine wines. Most collectors can't play this game. It's not about running out of coin money. It's about @MrEureka having an exquisite ($$$) palate. :p

    It would be more like a lottery if you could add in roulette.

    Enigmatic? I thought you were just confused!

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
  • ColonelJessupColonelJessup Posts: 6,442 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Some minds, perhaps less addled by exquisite wines (and premium Scotch), might consider them not to be mutually exclusive.

    Lunch tomorrow w/alternate weather plans? text me ;)

    "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
  • panexpoguypanexpoguy Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ColonelJessup said:
    26% of my "no-brainers" work, as do 37% of my "long-shots". My biggest scores are on coins that go down a point and are bought as 1 1/2 pt upgrades by my friends. I smile enigmatically as I buy them fine wines. Most collectors can't play this game. It's not about running out of coin money. It's about @MrEureka having an exquisite ($$$) palate. :p

    It would be more like a lottery if you could add in roulette.

    You have made me open Pandora’s Box……

  • FishproFishpro Posts: 389 ✭✭✭

    Over the last 60 days, I have sent over 200 Morgan’s to CAC. All in my thoughts had a good chance of passing. Had a 72% approval. Most all are older blue PCGS holders.

  • LanceNewmanOCCLanceNewmanOCC Posts: 19,999 ✭✭✭✭✭

    90/10

    <--- look what's behind the mask! - cool link 1/NO ~ 2/NNP ~ 3/NNC ~ 4/CF ~ 5/PG ~ 6/Cert ~ 7/NGC 7a/NGC pop~ 8/NGCF ~ 9/HA archives ~ 10/PM ~ 11/NM ~ 12/ANACS cert ~ 13/ANACS pop - report fakes 1/ACEF ~ report fakes/thefts 1/NCIS - Numi-Classes SS ~ Bass ~ Transcribed Docs NNP - clashed coins - error training - V V mm styles -

  • jonrunsjonruns Posts: 1,197 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I send all my coins to CAC and hope for the best!

    IMHO no coin is a "lock" at CAC and I try not to buy "long shots".

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