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Interesting shift in eBay US Gold Coin sales strategy

csdotcsdot Posts: 513 ✭✭✭
edited June 15, 2021 4:38PM in U.S. Coin Forum

I like to check the new listings on eBay to see what new $10s and $20s gets listed. Over the past 90 days I have noticed two major changes: (1) Gold prices on eBay are now well over the PCGS guide price; and (2) Ebay Sellers, even the regulars who have been selling for the years, have shifted decidedly away from using the "buy it now" format in favor of the weeklong auctions with a high starting price.

With respect to the first item, the high prices, I would want as much as I could get too if I were selling. The second development, the shift away from listing a "buy it now" price in favor of the weeklong auction format with a high starting price has me scratching my head. The reason, these auctions seem to roll over week after week, and the lack of a "buy it now" option narrows the possibility of the low hanging fruit of an impulse buyer.

I saw a $10 two weeks ago that I would have purchased in a "buy it now" setting, but that wasn't an option. I even meant to bid in the last minute (the only time to bid unless you want to invite a bidding war), but due to a dinner party, I was unable to log on before the auction expired. Coin didn't sell. Coincidentally, a similar $10 with a lower starting bid that popped up the following week, so I waited out that weeklong auction and was the sole bidder in the final seconds.

So those are my observations of what appears to be a shift in how US gold coin sellers are approaching eBay sales.

*Edit to say I am looking at PCGS graded $20 in MS65 (1909s, 1913d, 1914d, 1916s) or MS64 (1912 or 1920), so while not rare, not a pure bullion play.

Comments

  • U1chicagoU1chicago Posts: 3,341 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I've occasionally tried listing an item for auction at a little below the prior buy-it-now since it wasn't drawing much attention and I thought someone might catch the auction (several of those times I've received more watchers but no sales recently). The sellers might be thinking something similar (more people check for auctions than buy it now-even if it isn't true). If there are no bids, you can always message the seller and see if they would change it to a buy-it-now (might work with some).

  • pmh1nicpmh1nic Posts: 2,075 ✭✭✭

    Does PCGS adjust their pricing of generic gold coins daily based on the current price of gold?

    The daily fluctuations in the price of gold doesn't really impact the pricing of coins with a high numismatic value but for garden variety $10 and $20 it might account for a fair amount of the premium for the coin. A buy it now price can become more or less attractive based on the daily fluctuations in the price of gold. If you post a coin for $2100 when the price of gold is $1900 it's a $200 premium over melt (I'm ignoring the various purifies to make the point). As a buyer that might be attractive. If the price of gold goes down $50 the premium is now $250 and the coin becomes less attractive. If the price of gold goes up $50 the premium drops to $150 making the coin more attractive.

    The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
  • csdotcsdot Posts: 513 ✭✭✭
    edited June 15, 2021 4:38PM

    @pmh1nic said:
    Does PCGS adjust their pricing of generic gold coins daily based on the current price of gold?

    The daily fluctuations in the price of gold doesn't really impact the pricing of coins with a high numismatic value but for garden variety $10 and $20 it might account for a fair amount of the premium for the coin. A buy it now price can become more or less attractive based on the daily fluctuations in the price of gold. If you post a coin for $2100 when the price of gold is $1900 it's a $200 premium over melt (I'm ignoring the various purifies to make the point). As a buyer that might be attractive. If the price of gold goes down $50 the premium is now $250 and the coin becomes less attractive. If the price of gold goes up $50 the premium drops to $150 making the coin more attractive.

    Above post edited to say: *I am looking at PCGS graded $20 in MS65 (1909s, 1913d, 1914d, 1916s) or MS64 (1912 or 1920), so while not rare, not a pure bullion play.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,141 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 15, 2021 4:50PM

    Because gold premiums are in a definite rise sellers at present do not have to fear falling interest in an auction listing. In the past bidders, because of future spot price uncertainty would wait til the last minute to place a bid. It is now a seller's market and sellers realize prices are only going higher for the near term. The auction approach currently gets them the best price.

    When prices realized exceed the Price Guide's normally inflated prices you know you are in a bull market.

    Conspiracy Theory: Deduction based on logic before it become based on fact.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Because gold premiums are in a definite rise sellers at present do not have to fear falling interest in an auction listing. In the past bidders, because of future spot price uncertainty would wait til the last minute to place a bid. It is now a seller's market and sellers realize prices are only going higher for the near term. The auction approach currently gets them the best price.

    When prices realized exceed the Price Guide's normally inflated prices you know you are in a bull market.

    This.

    I can't speak specifically to PCGS guide on $20s in 65 but most price guides are trailing the market currently.

    As a general rule, guides are just guides not gospel. One should always pay attention to the market itself. That has never been more true in the last 20 years than right now.

    And should this baby turn around fast, it would behoove everyone to pay close attention moving forward.

  • pmh1nicpmh1nic Posts: 2,075 ✭✭✭
    edited June 15, 2021 6:10PM

    @csdot said:

    @pmh1nic said:
    Does PCGS adjust their pricing of generic gold coins daily based on the current price of gold?

    The daily fluctuations in the price of gold doesn't really impact the pricing of coins with a high numismatic value but for garden variety $10 and $20 it might account for a fair amount of the premium for the coin. A buy it now price can become more or less attractive based on the daily fluctuations in the price of gold. If you post a coin for $2100 when the price of gold is $1900 it's a $200 premium over melt (I'm ignoring the various purifies to make the point). As a buyer that might be attractive. If the price of gold goes down $50 the premium is now $250 and the coin becomes less attractive. If the price of gold goes up $50 the premium drops to $150 making the coin more attractive.

    Above post edited to say: *I am looking at PCGS graded $20 in MS65 (1909s, 1913d, 1914d, 1916s) or MS64 (1912 or 1920), so while not rare, not a pure bullion play.

    Agree. When you get up in the 64, 65 range they shouldn't be seen as just bullion coins even if they are common dates.

    The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
  • pmh1nicpmh1nic Posts: 2,075 ✭✭✭
    edited June 15, 2021 6:10PM

    Double post

    The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pmh1nic said:

    @csdot said:

    @pmh1nic said:
    Does PCGS adjust their pricing of generic gold coins daily based on the current price of gold?

    The daily fluctuations in the price of gold doesn't really impact the pricing of coins with a high numismatic value but for garden variety $10 and $20 it might account for a fair amount of the premium for the coin. A buy it now price can become more or less attractive based on the daily fluctuations in the price of gold. If you post a coin for $2100 when the price of gold is $1900 it's a $200 premium over melt (I'm ignoring the various purifies to make the point). As a buyer that might be attractive. If the price of gold goes down $50 the premium is now $250 and the coin becomes less attractive. If the price of gold goes up $50 the premium drops to $150 making the coin more attractive.

    Above post edited to say: *I am looking at PCGS graded $20 in MS65 (1909s, 1913d, 1914d, 1916s) or MS64 (1912 or 1920), so while not rare, not a pure bullion play.

    Agree. When you get up in the 64, 65 range they shouldn't be seen as just bullion coins even if they are common dates.

    Right now, 63s have premiums!!! I sold several 63 common date Saints in 63 holders for $1950 WHOLESALE.

  • csdotcsdot Posts: 513 ✭✭✭

    Been buying them since about 2006, so probably a great time for me to sell. 🤔😊

  • pmh1nicpmh1nic Posts: 2,075 ✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @pmh1nic said:

    @csdot said:

    @pmh1nic said:
    Does PCGS adjust their pricing of generic gold coins daily based on the current price of gold?

    The daily fluctuations in the price of gold doesn't really impact the pricing of coins with a high numismatic value but for garden variety $10 and $20 it might account for a fair amount of the premium for the coin. A buy it now price can become more or less attractive based on the daily fluctuations in the price of gold. If you post a coin for $2100 when the price of gold is $1900 it's a $200 premium over melt (I'm ignoring the various purifies to make the point). As a buyer that might be attractive. If the price of gold goes down $50 the premium is now $250 and the coin becomes less attractive. If the price of gold goes up $50 the premium drops to $150 making the coin more attractive.

    Above post edited to say: *I am looking at PCGS graded $20 in MS65 (1909s, 1913d, 1914d, 1916s) or MS64 (1912 or 1920), so while not rare, not a pure bullion play.

    Agree. When you get up in the 64, 65 range they shouldn't be seen as just bullion coins even if they are common dates.

    Right now, 63s have premiums!!! I sold several 63 common date Saints in 63 holders for $1950 WHOLESALE.

    There are 30 grams of gold in a Saint or about $1,800 worth of gold at today's price, so the $1950 represents about a $150 premium. The price today for American Eagle bullion coins, (31 grams of gold) with $1860 worth of gold, is around $2000. That's a premium of about $140 at today's price of $59.97 per gram. That $150 premium you mention is about the same premium paid for generic bullion coins.

    The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pmh1nic said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @pmh1nic said:

    @csdot said:

    @pmh1nic said:
    Does PCGS adjust their pricing of generic gold coins daily based on the current price of gold?

    The daily fluctuations in the price of gold doesn't really impact the pricing of coins with a high numismatic value but for garden variety $10 and $20 it might account for a fair amount of the premium for the coin. A buy it now price can become more or less attractive based on the daily fluctuations in the price of gold. If you post a coin for $2100 when the price of gold is $1900 it's a $200 premium over melt (I'm ignoring the various purifies to make the point). As a buyer that might be attractive. If the price of gold goes down $50 the premium is now $250 and the coin becomes less attractive. If the price of gold goes up $50 the premium drops to $150 making the coin more attractive.

    Above post edited to say: *I am looking at PCGS graded $20 in MS65 (1909s, 1913d, 1914d, 1916s) or MS64 (1912 or 1920), so while not rare, not a pure bullion play.

    Agree. When you get up in the 64, 65 range they shouldn't be seen as just bullion coins even if they are common dates.

    Right now, 63s have premiums!!! I sold several 63 common date Saints in 63 holders for $1950 WHOLESALE.

    There are 30 grams of gold in a Saint or about $1,800 worth of gold at today's price, so the $1950 represents about a $150 premium. The price today for American Eagle bullion coins, (31 grams of gold) with $1860 worth of gold, is around $2000. That's a premium of about $140 at today's price of $59.97 per gram. That $150 premium you mention is about the same premium paid for generic bullion coins.

    Wholesale price on a 1 oz AGE is +4% which is about $1930 right now, not $2000. And those are still numismatic premiums as you will not get that premium on other firms of gold.

  • TurtleCatTurtleCat Posts: 3,329 ✭✭✭✭✭

    This reminds me of why I like gold dollars. It’s pricing is less affected by gold’s current pricing. Combine that with not being as in-demand as the large gold and you have a bit more stability in pricing.

    Anyway, I gave up buying gold on eBay some time ago. I have felt for some time that the pricing is a bit higher than I can get at a coin show for the same quality level.

  • ReadyFireAimReadyFireAim Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 16, 2021 4:18AM

    @csdot said:
    1914d

    D rather than S?

    BTW...Have you looked at the registry lately? There is a new person at #3
    Check out his 1912 :p


    (MS66)

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TurtleCat said:
    This reminds me of why I like gold dollars. It’s pricing is less affected by gold’s current pricing. Combine that with not being as in-demand as the large gold and you have a bit more stability in pricing.

    Anyway, I gave up buying gold on eBay some time ago. I have felt for some time that the pricing is a bit higher than I can get at a coin show for the same quality level.

    The current market really isn't being driven by bullion prices which haven't moved that much. There's a bull market in coins and other collectibles.

  • pmh1nicpmh1nic Posts: 2,075 ✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @pmh1nic said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @pmh1nic said:

    @csdot said:

    @pmh1nic said:
    Does PCGS adjust their pricing of generic gold coins daily based on the current price of gold?

    The daily fluctuations in the price of gold doesn't really impact the pricing of coins with a high numismatic value but for garden variety $10 and $20 it might account for a fair amount of the premium for the coin. A buy it now price can become more or less attractive based on the daily fluctuations in the price of gold. If you post a coin for $2100 when the price of gold is $1900 it's a $200 premium over melt (I'm ignoring the various purifies to make the point). As a buyer that might be attractive. If the price of gold goes down $50 the premium is now $250 and the coin becomes less attractive. If the price of gold goes up $50 the premium drops to $150 making the coin more attractive.

    Above post edited to say: *I am looking at PCGS graded $20 in MS65 (1909s, 1913d, 1914d, 1916s) or MS64 (1912 or 1920), so while not rare, not a pure bullion play.

    Agree. When you get up in the 64, 65 range they shouldn't be seen as just bullion coins even if they are common dates.

    Right now, 63s have premiums!!! I sold several 63 common date Saints in 63 holders for $1950 WHOLESALE.

    There are 30 grams of gold in a Saint or about $1,800 worth of gold at today's price, so the $1950 represents about a $150 premium. The price today for American Eagle bullion coins, (31 grams of gold) with $1860 worth of gold, is around $2000. That's a premium of about $140 at today's price of $59.97 per gram. That $150 premium you mention is about the same premium paid for generic bullion coins.

    Wholesale price on a 1 oz AGE is +4% which is about $1930 right now, not $2000. And those are still numismatic premiums as you will not get that premium on other firms of gold.

    @jmlanzaf said:
    Wholesale price on a 1 oz AGE is +4% which is about $1930 right now, not $2000. And those are still numismatic premiums as you will not get that premium on other firms of gold.

    I think we are looking at the idea of numismatic premium differently. I don’t see an extra 5% or 10% over the melt price as a numismatic premium. In my mind that’s the added cost of processing the raw material into a generic coin. When I think of numismatic premium I thinking along the lines of 50% plus above the melt value, something that far exceeds the cost of just processing the raw material into a coin.

    The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
  • csdotcsdot Posts: 513 ✭✭✭
    edited June 16, 2021 8:22AM

    @ReadyFireAim said:

    @csdot said:
    1914d

    D rather than S?

    BTW...Have you looked at the registry lately? There is a new person at #3
    Check out his 1912 :p


    (MS66)

    Very nice 1912!!!

    As for the 1914, I would prefer to add a Denver minted 1914 to my date set, but a San Francisco minted 1914 would do as a second choice.

    Just checked out your set. VERY NICE!!! Congratulations.

    Half of my Saints are graded by NGC (the 1922-1928 series), and since the price of gold collectibles is so high now, guess my only option is to cross them if I want them in my PCGS Registry set:

    https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/20-gold-major-sets/st-gaudens-20-gold-date-set-circulation-strikes-1907-1932/publishedset/119520

    NGC set:

    https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/131711/

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pmh1nic said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @pmh1nic said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @pmh1nic said:

    @csdot said:

    @pmh1nic said:
    Does PCGS adjust their pricing of generic gold coins daily based on the current price of gold?

    The daily fluctuations in the price of gold doesn't really impact the pricing of coins with a high numismatic value but for garden variety $10 and $20 it might account for a fair amount of the premium for the coin. A buy it now price can become more or less attractive based on the daily fluctuations in the price of gold. If you post a coin for $2100 when the price of gold is $1900 it's a $200 premium over melt (I'm ignoring the various purifies to make the point). As a buyer that might be attractive. If the price of gold goes down $50 the premium is now $250 and the coin becomes less attractive. If the price of gold goes up $50 the premium drops to $150 making the coin more attractive.

    Above post edited to say: *I am looking at PCGS graded $20 in MS65 (1909s, 1913d, 1914d, 1916s) or MS64 (1912 or 1920), so while not rare, not a pure bullion play.

    Agree. When you get up in the 64, 65 range they shouldn't be seen as just bullion coins even if they are common dates.

    Right now, 63s have premiums!!! I sold several 63 common date Saints in 63 holders for $1950 WHOLESALE.

    There are 30 grams of gold in a Saint or about $1,800 worth of gold at today's price, so the $1950 represents about a $150 premium. The price today for American Eagle bullion coins, (31 grams of gold) with $1860 worth of gold, is around $2000. That's a premium of about $140 at today's price of $59.97 per gram. That $150 premium you mention is about the same premium paid for generic bullion coins.

    Wholesale price on a 1 oz AGE is +4% which is about $1930 right now, not $2000. And those are still numismatic premiums as you will not get that premium on other firms of gold.

    @jmlanzaf said:
    Wholesale price on a 1 oz AGE is +4% which is about $1930 right now, not $2000. And those are still numismatic premiums as you will not get that premium on other firms of gold.

    I think we are looking at the idea of numismatic premium differently. I don’t see an extra 5% or 10% over the melt price as a numismatic premium. In my mind that’s the added cost of processing the raw material into a generic coin. When I think of numismatic premium I thinking along the lines of 50% plus above the melt value, something that far exceeds the cost of just processing the raw material into a coin.

    That is only true if you are buying fresh from the Mint. Refining/minting costs disappear as soon as they hit the secondary market. Call the premium whatever you like, they've swelled in the last couple months. Same coins early in the year were selling for $50 to $75 over melt for AGEs and less for pre-1933 gold.

  • nagsnags Posts: 719 ✭✭✭

    @csdot said:
    Been buying them since about 2006, so probably a great time for me to sell. 🤔😊

    I'm thinking the same thing. I have the customary collectors box of odds and ends that aren't really in my collection; couple random MS Saints, eagles, half eagles, MS64/65 morgan/peace dollars... all the stuff I've randomly picked up over the years that really doesn't fit my collection... Might be a good time to dump the stuff.

  • skier07skier07 Posts: 2,235 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TurtleCat said:
    This reminds me of why I like gold dollars. It’s pricing is less affected by gold’s current pricing. Combine that with not being as in-demand as the large gold and you have a bit more stability in pricing.

    Anyway, I gave up buying gold on eBay some time ago. I have felt for some time that the pricing is a bit higher than I can get at a coin show for the same quality level.

    I like gold dollars also and I have several but boy are they tiny and as I’m getting older I have a more difficult time seeing them.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,141 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 16, 2021 9:18AM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    That is only true if you are buying fresh from the Mint. Refining/minting costs disappear as soon as they hit the secondary market. Call the premium whatever you like, they've swelled in the last couple months. Same coins early in the year were selling for $50 to $75 over melt for AGEs and less for pre-1933 gold.

    Fabrication costs always remain a part of the premium equation unless a seller down the line settles for a loss. Subsequent sellers just pass them on to the next buyer along with their added markup.

    Conspiracy Theory: Deduction based on logic before it become based on fact.

  • ReadyFireAimReadyFireAim Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 16, 2021 10:50AM

    @csdot said:
    Half of my Saints are graded by NGC (the 1922-1928 series), and since the price of gold collectibles is so high now, guess my only option is to cross them if I want them in my PCGS Registry set:
    https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/131711/

    Looks like you would be down to 09-S, 12, 14-D, 16-S & 20

    I'm curious why the 12 in MS64 has not jumped in price yet. Probably the most under appreciated year/cond. right now.
    I guess nobody wants one unless you are a set builder. Folks would rather have a 66 1924 for the same price.

    A nice 20 can still be found in MS64 but it is a major search & don't overlook in in MS63 because there are a few that PCGS under graded. (Graders seem to challenged by the 1920 & the 63-64 line)

    The 16-S is weird also. My opinion is that they seem to over grade that year like the 07.
    The pop is high in MS65 but half of them are "low C" coins

    The 9-s is surprisingly easier even though it is suppose to be a "hard"/low pop coin.
    They seem to be harsh on the 9-S so many of the MS65 ones are at least OK.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    That is only true if you are buying fresh from the Mint. Refining/minting costs disappear as soon as they hit the secondary market. Call the premium whatever you like, they've swelled in the last couple months. Same coins early in the year were selling for $50 to $75 over melt for AGEs and less for pre-1933 gold.

    Fabrication costs always remain a part of the premium equation unless a seller down the line settles for a loss. Subsequent sellers just pass them on to the next buyer along with their added markup.

    And yet often coins sell at spot or even below. There is no built in fabrication or refining costs in bullion. If there were, all bullion including bars would always sell for over spot. An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold.

  • TurtleCatTurtleCat Posts: 3,329 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @skier07 said:

    @TurtleCat said:
    This reminds me of why I like gold dollars. It’s pricing is less affected by gold’s current pricing. Combine that with not being as in-demand as the large gold and you have a bit more stability in pricing.

    Anyway, I gave up buying gold on eBay some time ago. I have felt for some time that the pricing is a bit higher than I can get at a coin show for the same quality level.

    I like gold dollars also and I have several but boy are they tiny and as I’m getting older I have a more difficult time seeing them.

    Oh I can definitely relate but I use photos and lower power loupes to make up the difference.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,141 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 16, 2021 11:22AM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @derryb said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    That is only true if you are buying fresh from the Mint. Refining/minting costs disappear as soon as they hit the secondary market. Call the premium whatever you like, they've swelled in the last couple months. Same coins early in the year were selling for $50 to $75 over melt for AGEs and less for pre-1933 gold.

    Fabrication costs always remain a part of the premium equation unless a seller down the line settles for a loss. Subsequent sellers just pass them on to the next buyer along with their added markup.

    And yet often coins sell at spot or even below.

    coins sell at spot or even below, as I said earlier, because the seller is settling for less, usually for a quick sale, or the market has taken a sudden down turn.

    There is no built in fabrication or refining costs in bullion. If there were, all bullion including bars would always sell for over spot. An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold.

    As a buyer of precious metals you surely understand why you pay more than spot and why prices vary depending on the product.

    Any time a chunk of raw gold or silver is turned into a fabricated product there is a cost to do so. Authorized purchasers pay $2.50+ for ASEs they buy directly from the US mint. This premium is charged by the mint to cover its fabrication/production costs. This cost (applied by a producer) is the initial premium attached to fabricated PM products and varies depending on the quality of the product and the reputation of its producer. This is why an ounce of gold is not just an ounce of gold and that prices vary for an ounce of gold depending on the fabricated product. It is the first reason fabricated products sell for more than spot.

    All bullion including bars do normally sell for over spot. The reason they do is because their initial premium, for fabrication, is normally attached to them forever. Additional premiums are added to (or subtracted from) the item by a seller depending on quality, supply, demand, desired profit, and price movement direction.

    An ounce of gold is never just an ounce of gold unless it is being traded as a paper product such as an ETF are on the futures market at spot price.

    Conspiracy Theory: Deduction based on logic before it become based on fact.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @derryb said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    That is only true if you are buying fresh from the Mint. Refining/minting costs disappear as soon as they hit the secondary market. Call the premium whatever you like, they've swelled in the last couple months. Same coins early in the year were selling for $50 to $75 over melt for AGEs and less for pre-1933 gold.

    Fabrication costs always remain a part of the premium equation unless a seller down the line settles for a loss. Subsequent sellers just pass them on to the next buyer along with their added markup.

    And yet often coins sell at spot or even below.

    coins sell at spot or even below, as I said earlier, because the seller is settling for less, usually for a quick sale, or the market has taken a sudden down turn.

    There is no built in fabrication or refining costs in bullion. If there were, all bullion including bars would always sell for over spot. An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold.

    Any time a chunk of raw gold or silver is turned into a fabricated product there is a cost to do so. Authorized purchasers pay $2.50+ for ASEs they buy directly from the US mint. This premium is charged by the mint to cover its fabrication/production costs. This cost (applied by the producer) is the initial premium attached to fabricated PM products and varies depending on the quality of the product and the reputation of its producer. This is why an ounce of gold is not just an ounce of gold and that prices vary for an ounce of gold depending on the fabricated product. It is the first reason fabricated products sell for more than spot.

    All bullion including bars do normally sell for over spot. The reason they do is because their initial premium, for fabrication, is normally attached to them forever. Additional premiums are added to (or subtracted from) the item by a seller depending on quality, supply, demand, and price movement direction.

    An ounce of gold is never just an ounce of gold unless it is being traded as a paper product such as an ETF are on the futures market at spot price.

    But, again, that manufacturing cost disappears as soon as it hits the secondary market. There is no market adjustment for this refining costs. That is why debased bullion sells at a discount.

    You are interpreting the seller transaction fee as a refining cost. If I buy gold in the secondary market, there is no expense associated with refining. If I buy a 1989 AGE, you think the refining cost is still attached to it 30 years later?

  • ReadyFireAimReadyFireAim Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 16, 2021 11:40AM

    @jmlanzaf said:
    The current market really isn't being driven by bullion prices which haven't moved that much. There's a bull market in coins and other collectibles.

    Yes and the distribution of price jumps is very odd in saints now.
    For example, the 1924 MS66 & 1929 MS64 have jumped the same amount ($2000)

    The 11-D in 65 is 4K now
    Higher than the 14-S, 15-S & 10-D
    It's like people are buying the things without even looking at rarity/pops.
    There were 2 pages of 11-D's for sale on CU at $2200 last year.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,141 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 16, 2021 12:00PM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    But, again, that manufacturing cost disappears as soon as it hits the secondary market. There is no market adjustment for this refining costs. That is why debased bullion sells at a discount.

    Yet it normally sells for more than spot, even when discounted. The fabrication cost is normally attached to its price forever. Premiums consist of numerous items. Fabrication cost is only the first on the list.

    You are interpreting the seller transaction fee as a refining cost. If I buy gold in the secondary market, there is no expense associated with refining.

    So, you're buying physical gold at spot? LOL You are including the fabrication cost in what you call a seller transaction fee. Seller transaction fees are the last item to affect the final premium paid. All sellers of a fabricated product pass on the fabrication premium that the first seller paid when he bought it. Call this what you will, but it remains the fabrication cost and like all costs it is normally passed on to the next buyer.

    If I buy a 1989 AGE, you think the refining cost is still attached to it 30 years later?

    If you pay more than spot for it, and you will, it is because it's first, second, third, fourth and final seller attached the fabrication cost to their additional premium (profit based on numerous factors) over spot. If this seller sells for no profit at what he paid for the AGE, he is still attaching the fabrication cost that he paid. For this reason you will always normally pay more than spot.

    Fabrication/production gave your 1989 AGE added value when it was first sold. Until that added value is removed by melting the AGE back into a chunk of gold (of the same quality as the AGE) the added value will remain with the AGE and will be passed on to future buyers as part of its premium.

    You fail to realize that premiums are more than just seller markup. Many things can contribute to "added value." Consider what gives additional added value to PMs certified as "WTC Ground Zero Recovery" or those certified as "DL Hansen Collection." As I said earlier fabrication costs are but the first on the list of what makes up a PM premium.

    Conspiracy Theory: Deduction based on logic before it become based on fact.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 2,880 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Production costs were different 30 years ago. Are there different premiums for gold based on the date the coin was minted?

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MasonG said:
    Production costs were different 30 years ago. Are there different premiums for gold based on the date the coin was minted?

    Exactly. And it costs the same to refine and mint a sovereign, yet those don't carry a premium

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,141 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 16, 2021 1:13PM

    only difference in premiums will be due to mintage/condition/pedigree.

    Conspiracy Theory: Deduction based on logic before it become based on fact.

  • pmh1nicpmh1nic Posts: 2,075 ✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @MasonG said:
    Production costs were different 30 years ago. Are there different premiums for gold based on the date the coin was minted?

    Exactly. And it costs the same to refine and mint a sovereign, yet those don't carry a premium

    A Sovereign with 0.2354 oz. of gold is selling for $456. The melt value of the gold is $431 (at today's price of 1832/oz). That's a 5% premium over melt. Refining isn't factored into the equation because we're basing premiums on the price of pure gold. Is the cost of creating a plancet and striking a Sovereign $25? I don't know but there is a premium over the price of just the refined pure gold.

    The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,141 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Fabrication cost is only one of many variables that make up the total premium on a precious metal item.

    Conspiracy Theory: Deduction based on logic before it become based on fact.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pmh1nic said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @MasonG said:
    Production costs were different 30 years ago. Are there different premiums for gold based on the date the coin was minted?

    Exactly. And it costs the same to refine and mint a sovereign, yet those don't carry a premium

    A Sovereign with 0.2354 oz. of gold is selling for $456. The melt value of the gold is $431 (at today's price of 1832/oz). That's a 5% premium over melt. Refining isn't factored into the equation because we're basing premiums on the price of pure gold. Is the cost of creating a plancet and striking a Sovereign $25? I don't know but there is a premium over the price of just the refined pure gold.

    All gold currently has a retail premium, but not because of minting costs. AGEs have higher premiums than sovereigns. He wholesale premiums on 1/4 ounce AGEs is 9%. The wholesale premium on sovereigns is essentially zero which is what u was referring to. The Eagle premium is a market preference.

    New coins from the ADs actually do have higher premiums because of production costs. But that minting premium disappears. Every stacker knows that the best bargain is old AGEs and old ASEs not new releases.

    So, again, my point is that there is zero mint cost premium on the secondary market.

  • pmh1nicpmh1nic Posts: 2,075 ✭✭✭

    Meanwhile gold takes a dive today

    The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pmh1nic said:
    Meanwhile gold takes a dive today

    Fed talking interest rate hikes.

  • pmh1nicpmh1nic Posts: 2,075 ✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @pmh1nic said:
    Meanwhile gold takes a dive today

    Fed talking interest rate hikes.

    That's a lot of panic over Fed talk. Given the amount of government debt we've accumulated over the last few years even a 1% increase is going to cost hundreds of billions in added federal interest payments.

    As far as Ebay is concerned I'm wondering if having an auction in such a volatile situation is a better strategy than having a buy it now? I'd be somewhat reluctant to bid on an item knowing the price of gold might drop $100 in a week. If you bid $2200 on a coin when the price is at $1900 the premium is about 16%. That premium jumps to 22% if the price drops to $1800 in a day.

    The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 6,207 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If the type of fabrication of a precious metal item adds to the level of trust that buyers have in it, then it will sell for a higher price than a form of precious metal that is less-trusted. Likewise, a bullion item certified by major coin grading company will usually sell for more than an identical item that isn't certified.

    After all, that is the purpose of the fabrication - to make it into a form that is more trusted and accepted.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,141 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 17, 2021 2:38AM

    added value (fabrication/TPG certification) never disappears. It is always a part of the premium. However, melt that gold coin or remove it from the TPG slab and you have suddenly reduced the premium. I rest my case.

    Conspiracy Theory: Deduction based on logic before it become based on fact.

  • davewesendavewesen Posts: 3,912 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The problem with eBay BINs is they auto-renew

    With gold prices moving, prices need adjusted

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    added value (fabrication/TPG certification) never disappears. It is always a part of the premium. However, melt that gold coin or remove it from the TPG slab and you have suddenly reduced the premium. I rest my case.

    You're shifting the argument. Yes, the reason AGES (or PCGS) sell for more is because of market confidence. That is not the same as minting/refining costs. Because, again, my minting and refining costs are possibly higher than the Mint. But the Mint gets the higher premium.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,141 ✭✭✭✭✭

    market confidence is a direct result of the type of fabrication (eagle vs generic round) as is the quality of the grading and remains with the product as long as the product is not altered (melted) or removed form the TPG slab.

    Your argument that this confidence and its affect on premium disappears after initial purchase is flawed. It disappears only when the fabricated product disappears (is melted) or is removed from a certified TPG slab.>

    @jmlanzaf said:

    All gold currently has a retail premium, but not because of minting costs. AGEs have higher premiums than sovereigns. He wholesale premiums on 1/4 ounce AGEs is 9%. The wholesale premium on sovereigns is essentially zero which is what u was referring to. The Eagle premium is a market preference.

    The higher eagle premium is because of quality of fabrication and quality of fabricator. This truth remains with the eagle every time it is resold.

    New coins from the ADs actually do have higher premiums because of production costs. But that minting premium disappears. Every stacker knows that the best bargain is old AGEs and old ASEs not new releases.

    New releases have a higher premium only because they are newer. Older AGEs still have a higher premium than older coins of other types. Why do you think this is?

    So, again, my point is that there is zero mint cost premium on the secondary market.

    It's called fabrication cost and it will always remain with the product. That is why older AGEs will always have a higher premium than other types of same age coins. If the fabrication premium did not stay with a 1986 AGE then that 1986 AGE would not currently sell for more than a 1986 Kruggerand.

    Conspiracy Theory: Deduction based on logic before it become based on fact.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    market confidence is a direct result of the type of fabrication (eagle vs generic round) as is the quality of the grading and remains with the product as long as the product is not altered (melted) or removed form the TPG slab.

    Your argument that this confidence and its affect on premium disappears after initial purchase is flawed. It disappears only when the fabricated product disappears (is melted) or is removed from a certified TPG slab.>

    @jmlanzaf said:

    All gold currently has a retail premium, but not because of minting costs. AGEs have higher premiums than sovereigns. He wholesale premiums on 1/4 ounce AGEs is 9%. The wholesale premium on sovereigns is essentially zero which is what u was referring to. The Eagle premium is a market preference.

    The higher eagle premium is because of quality of fabrication and quality of fabricator. This truth remains with the eagle every time it is resold.

    New coins from the ADs actually do have higher premiums because of production costs. But that minting premium disappears. Every stacker knows that the best bargain is old AGEs and old ASEs not new releases.

    New releases have a higher premium only because they are newer. Older AGEs still have a higher premium than older coins of other types. Why do you think this is?

    So, again, my point is that there is zero mint cost premium on the secondary market.

    It's called fabrication cost and it will always remain with the product. That is why older AGEs will always have a higher premium than other types of same age coins. If the fabrication premium did not stay with a 1986 AGE then that 1986 AGE would not currently sell for more than a 1986 Kruggerand.

    Again, Kruggerrands don't have the same premium as eagles. Sovereigns don't have the same premium as eagles. Etc.

    A $12 coin in a $35 holder is still a $12 coin.

    An eagle sells for $50 over spot (or whatever) whether the minting cost us $20 per coin or $100 per coin. The market confidence premium is not directly related to the cost of manufacture.

  • ARCOARCO Posts: 4,145 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    A $12 coin in a $35 holder is still a $12 coin.

    Not on Ebay. A $12 coin in a $35 holder is a coin a seller is listing for $60.00 :D

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 18,968 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ARCO said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    A $12 coin in a $35 holder is still a $12 coin.

    Not on Ebay. A $12 coin in a $35 holder is a coin a seller is listing for $60.00 :D

    Raw it's a $600 RARE RARE RARE coin.

  • AzurescensAzurescens Posts: 2,639 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It's almost like somebody said we were in store for these exact, very specific market conditions 18 months ago.

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