Financial return on the 100 Greatest US Coins
Zoins
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There's a lot of mention of the coin price indexes that show stagnating prices. Should the 100 Greatest Coins Index be used more than it is?
Are we due for another edition of the 100 Greatest US Coins? From the time spans between previous versions, it seems like one should be coming. I'm curious to see where prices are now after Covid.
We're 6 years after the 4th edition.
- 1st Edition: 2003 = $66,135,000
- 2nd Edition: 2005 = $90,935,500 - 2 years
- 3rd Edition: 2008 = $140,073,250 - 3 years
- 4th Edition: 2015 = $170,867,750 - 7 years
Perhaps it can start being written with some more recent sales like the Weitzman 1933 DE and Pogue 1804 dollar?
The following is from Monaco:
https://monacorarecoins.com/top-100-greatest/
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CAGR is a lot more relevant than average and is a lot lower. (I did not calculate it.)
Most of the gain was probably also up to 1989/1990, as with the PCGS 3000.
The link doesn't show the breakdown. It's going to based upon the price of specific individual coins or if it isn't, then the comparison isn't nearly as meaningful.
I suspect performance of a relatively low number has an outsized impact.
It's an interesting academic exercise but not meaningful to hardly any (if any at all) actual buyers/collectors.
So we are to assume that the price history of the 100 greatest U.S. coins is reflective of the coins we own individually is that what is being attempted here, because I think it is the wrong attempt
So this chart indicates the rich get richer?
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
I don't know how you can price these things. Nobody knows what the 1933 DE will sell for tomorrow.
Creating such an index weakly implies that these coins could actually have been acquired at the stated price and date, which is anything but true.
More accurate to look at specific examples and see what the exact same coin sold for over a long period of time.
These top 100 are in a separate class when it comes to collecting. A top tier 1916-D Mercury Dime could be $30K - $40K. Then you get to some coins where finding any example puts you over $100K. I don't think the movement and pricing on these coins reflects what happens in the hobby in general.
I agree. Stamps are dead but the penny magenta is about to set a new record.
This is true. An index has to be somewhat liquid to have meaning.
Actually, they have to be worth $300 million in 2021 to have done better than the S&P.
Interestingly, $1 million in 1960 invested in the dividend reinvested S&P would be worth $383 million.
Could it be that ultra rare coins mimic the S&P?
Sales pairs like the S&P Case Shiller Index? This is the most accurate method to value non-commodity type collectibles.
That's tough for some of those coins that may go a decade or more without an example trading
There is correlation though cannot prove direct causation. No doubt in my mind that when the current asset mania (the most extreme ever) ends, current coin prices won't be sustainable either.
I'm not implying any causation. But it wouldn't be surprising, and maybe comforting, that large asset classes move with the growth of the overall "economy"
I agree but any other comparison is substantially apples-oranges when the coin isn't unique. As you know, it isn't like a share of stock where each one is identical and any buyer can buy at any scale within their financial capacity.
Your point highlights the total futility of such an exercise to begin with, contrary to the sentiments expressed in the link to the Monaco site within the OP.
And possibly not available... for years.
If you are referring to the stock market, it's been disconnected for years, much of it anyway. If you don't agree, can't really go into more detail here without taking the thread into a totally unrelated direction.
No, I agree. Last couple decades the P/E has been expanding. But it is a very long discussion to be had about the various reasons for it.
This is true for a many coins, though it's a very low proportion. The coin is only available at a noticeable premium to it's supposed value where any incentive to buy it for financial reasons would be negated. The buyer needs to pay years of future potential appreciation to acquire it.
More accurate to look at specific examples and see what the exact same coin sold for over a long period of time.
Small subsets of the market don't move in lockstep with the broader market. There are plenty of examples of this. Also, "Past performance is no guarantee of future........"
If a person actually believes that the Neil-Carter dollar would sell for $100M in 2030, why on earth would that person try to sell it? That works out to an annualized ROI of 14.5% As an investment, that's pretty tough to beat.
The price of my 1919 Lincoln cent in good in 1964 was like .015 and today the same or a bit less!
Not true! Wholesale on a bag of wheats is $150. It's worth at least 3 cents
I always read it as Nell Carter....I wonder if she collects.
The Wholesale on teen wheats is much more that common date bag.
Upstate sells Teen bags for $880.00.
It's on line if anyone wants to check!
Dealers turn in the biggest profits. Heirs walk in with "found money" not researching what they have just wanting good offers. The dealer maintains his poker face, reading the intentions of the sellers who are eager to dispose of what they have gotten that is too esoteric for them to properly quantify with the tough learning curve in numismatics.
I always found bullion an easier asset to quantify and liquidate as seasoned dealer Mr. Nachbar used to advertise in his ads. But you never know when to get out of the asset class, as the top is hard to guess.
Dealers make (good) money, good times or bad, or else go out of business. Those that last get better returns than the lopsided percentage of their customers, as it must and always shall be.
Interesting topic. Let's adjust those numbers for inflation and see the true differences.
10.1%. Very impressive, actually.
It seems that any index which includes a number of items that you cannot acquire at any price is a bad index. If I recall correctly, the 1849 $20, and several other unique / near unique coins of which al, examples are impounded in museums, are on the list. Perhaps if they removed those it would be a more realistic measure.
@tradedollarnut - I like your chart. It is compelling.
Now everyone knows
$19,509,750 USD
This would be a good exercise, like Bruce's post above.
I don't know how you can price these things. Nobody knows what the 1933 DE will sell for tomorrow.
It’s honestly not that hard. My $19.2M guesstimate was pretty much spot on.