May 2021 Financial Stability Report

MsMorrisine

Report summarizing the Federal Reserve Board’s framework for assessing the resilience of the U.S. financial system and presenting the Board’s current assessment
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/financial-stability-report.htm

derryb

If they know so much about the economy how come they have to keep printing money to fix their misunderstanding of how to fix the economy?

Bulgarian propaganda, sure it's full of "how great the economy is" and "we're on the right path."

Higashiyama

It is hard not to be amused by the following statement from the first paragraph of the report:

“Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising.”

Hmmm ... I wonder why people are chasing yields?

MsMorrisine

@Higashiyama said:

Hmmm ... I wonder why people are chasing yields?

Some would say impending inflation.

MsMorrisine

In EMEs, difficulties in containing the virus, a possible further rise in long-term interest rates, and waning fiscal capacity pose near-term risks to financial stability. In particular, many highly indebted EME sovereigns and corporations are vulnerable to a sudden increase in debt-servicing costs from sharp rises in global interest rates.

MsMorrisine

In this setting, asset prices may be vulnerable to significant declines should risk appetite fall.

As if the free money fed wouldn’t step in

MsMorrisine

3. Leverage in the financial sector. Banks remain well capitalized, and leverage at broker- dealers is low. Measures of hedge fund leverage are somewhat above their historical averages, but the data available may not capture important risks from hedge funds or other leveraged funds. Amid elevated investor risk appetite, issuance of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and asset-backed securities (ABS) has been robust.

4. Funding risk. Funding risks at domestic banks remain low, because these banks rely only modestly on short-term wholesale funding and maintain sizable holdings of high-quality liquid assets. However, the market turmoil at the onset of the pandemic highlighted structural vulnerabilities that persist at some types of money market funds (MMFs) as well as bond and bank loan mutual funds.

cohodk

@MsMorrisine said:

In this setting, asset prices may be vulnerable to significant declines should risk appetite fall.

As if the free money fed wouldn’t step in

I believe they wish to see money allocated to the more speculative "assets" destroyed. They will not stop that implosion.

MsMorrisine

in the greenspan era I think they'd want to pop the bubble.

now, I think they are so afraid of popping bubbles that the government with the fed's help will throw money at it to prop things up.

cohodk

@MsMorrisine said:
in the greenspan era I think they'd want to pop the bubble.

now, I think they are so afraid of popping bubbles that the government with the fed's help will throw money at it to prop things up.

Depends on the bubble.

carew4me

its 2021, EVERYTHING is influenced by the political narrative which is now clearly anti-capitalist, big daddy Gov. I don't trust the data or the report just as I have no faith in our government regardless of which party happens to be getting individually wealthy at the time.

thefinn

@Higashiyama said:
It is hard not to be amused by the following statement from the first paragraph of the report:

“Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising.”

Hmmm ... I wonder why people are chasing yields?

Sounds like something you would find in a fortune cookie.

derryb

@thefinn said:

@Higashiyama said:
It is hard not to be amused by the following statement from the first paragraph of the report:

“Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising.”

Hmmm ... I wonder why people are chasing yields?

Sounds like something you would find in a fortune cookie.

government gobbldygook, a language of its own that is meant to avoid clarity.

metalmeister

Just look at Gold lately." Inflation is rampant" Warren Buffet

MsMorrisine

“Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising.”

.

@derryb said:

government gobbldygook, a language of its own that is meant to avoid clarity.

I was thinking you'd be all over this one.

"elevated risk appetite" ?

"vulnerabilities" ?

"rising"

MsMorrisine

Banks remain well capitalized, and leverage at broker-dealers is low.

lies?

MsMorrisine

Measures of hedge fund leverage are somewhat above their historical averages, but the data available may not capture important risks from hedge funds or other leveraged funds.

hedge funds, anyone?

isn't this a derryb: "i told you so" moment ?

and what could they be talking about here: "but the data available may not capture important risks from hedge funds or other leveraged funds."

over leverage? risks? "may not capture" ...

are they talking about what i think they are talking about?

MsMorrisine

they do not disappoint and go one better....

.

MsMorrisine

For example, some hedge funds with substantial short positions sustained losses during the meme stock episode in January 2021, when intense social media activity contributed to fluctuations in the prices of some specific stocks, though the effects on the hedge fund sector overall appear to have been limited (see the box “Vulnerabilities from Asset Valuations, Risk Appetite, and Low Interest Rates” in the Asset Valuations section).

In a separate episode in late March, a few banks took large losses when a highly leveraged family office, Archegos Capital Management, was unable to meet margin calls related to total return swap agreements and other positions financed by prime brokers. Price declines in the concentrated stock positions held by Archegos triggered the margin calls, prompting
sales of the stock positions, which led to further declines in the prices of affected stocks and, ultimately, substantial losses for some banks. While broader market spillovers appeared limited, the episode highlights the potential for material distress at NBFIs to affect the broader financial system

derryb

@MsMorrisine said:

and what could they be talking about here: "but the data available may not capture important risks from hedge funds or other leveraged funds."

That's there way of saying the banks have not been reporting data as required, but they couldn't just come out and say it because it would mean they needed to do something about it.

derryb

After Mega Banks Supervised by the Fed Lose Over $10 Billion to a Highly Leveraged Hedge Fund, Fed Puts Lipstick on a Pig in its Financial Stability Report

From the Report:
“Banks remain well capitalized, and leverage at broker-dealers is low. Measures of hedge fund leverage are somewhat above their historical averages, but the data available may not capture important risks from hedge funds or other leveraged funds.”

From the link:
What the Fed is attempting to sheepishly acknowledge in that oblique paragraph cited above is that 13 long years after the greatest financial crash since the Great Depression, it once again has no firm grip on the hidden dangers lurking at these mega Wall Street banks.

MsMorrisine

banks are banks

broker-dealers are brokers... dealers... they are in the NFBI category. Non-Bank Financial Institution

hedge funds are not banks. but Archegos, as we argued over, is a family office and not a hedge fund or bank. the losses incurred in Archegos had to be covered by the idiot banks. we also had that in the thread.

what was also mentioned by me was that there are "know your customer" regulations. I added that there can't be "know what your customer is doing at other firms" regulation.

so, no, the Fed has no idea how many other "bad products" like the "total return swap" there are to blow up hedge funds and potentially cost banks money. ditto that the fed has no insight into hedge funds' exposure to potential meme stocks that could blow up a hedge fund and potentially cost a bank money.

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long story short, hedge funds aren't banks. they are not under fed's control. however, the idiot banks who have stupid hedge fund & family office customers or stupid products for hedge funds & family offices may be hit with losses .... "vulnerabilities" ... "may not capture"

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what the snippets did not mention is the risks to banks are from potential, unknown hedge fund losses.

and when it comes to the Fed knowing what ha hedge fund's exposure to potential losses it is unknown because it is unknowable to an institution that does not regulate hedge funds.

What the Fed can do is regulate the banks to have more larger capital cushion in times where there is ... "hedge fund leverage are somewhat above their historical averages".