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Pricing Top Pop / Finest Known Graded World Bank Notes
Cougar1978
Posts: 7,616 ✭✭✭✭✭
For these Krause CV which is for a raw unc is just a baseline for premium pricing.
Premium factors for grade and low pop are applied. A note could have a cv of $200 in raw unc but be priced at say $895 because it is PCGS 67 PPQ pop of 1/0 finest known. Ditto for single digit pop notes. Graded WPM is the new frontier in numismatics. Many countries issues of notes like the Belgian Congo, Rhodesia are very scarce in high grade Unc.
Outrageous - not in in the least bit. Coin collectors pay premiums in the thousands of dollars above a non stickered example because a coin is stickered lol.
In developing a pricing system for these factors can be developed for higher grade unc and pop rarity (I prefer the Sheldon scale).
So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
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Is there a question in the above post that I’m missing ?
I really could not disagree
I'd offer a comment.
It will take quite a bit of time until population reports start to become reliable and offer good information for many notes. I have several issues in quantity that don't exist in high grades in the pop reports. I've sold a few, uncertified, over the years. I'm not the only one.
Krause (or the SCWPM) is pretty liberal for a lot of common chaff -actually. But its a hard learning curve to know which nations to collect (for newer World currency). It takes time to familiarize oneself with the trends. In many cases, like Bangladesh, India, China, New Zealand & many Commonwealth nations, the BV can be dated and conservative. El Salvador, Ecuador & pre-Euro all do well too. Not sure what it is about Bermuda but most collectors seem to have thing for this nation (so forget BV).
For older currency, "General Issues 1368-1960" the book BV's seems conservative/outdated. If the note's BV is listed to **EF **you can best be sure that the prices for anything in higher grades (with 'Q') are going very high on the hammer. This is especially true for any colonial issue (W Africa, Rhodesia, Indo-China, French or Italian colonies, you name it). If a colony has since changed its name (Straits Settlements/ British Borneo/Malaya) good luck! I have tried to win a few but usually my efforts have been in vain (are typically outbid by substantial amounts).
**https://sites.google.com/view/notaphilycculture/collecting-banknotes **
Grading of currency has been around for more than 20 years. So far as non-US notes go it has never really taken off. I view the slabbed foreign notes as a nice touch but not something that merits much of a premium. The vast majority of non-US notes have not been slabbed and may never be.
Top pop notes (finest known) strong sellers bring in good money (much more than just raw Krause CV) at my table at shows or online store.
Maybe I should get the few better notes I do have slabbed. With few currency dealers setting up in my area (even when there were shows) I may have gotten very out of touch with the market, as least as it exists in the US.
That means some collectors must be really, really old!
More than 100 of these came out of a hoard 20 years ago. PMG population zero. They have been well distributed, none graded, yet. It will be a long time before population reports offer reliable information for obsolete or world notes.
https://ebay.com/itm/353484509413?hash=item524d5190e5:g:dTMAAOSw08dgdw30
After checking on how much it would cost to have my notes slabbed vs. potential value increase I have decided to leave them raw. I have no plans to sell them anytime soon anyway.
I like my Iranian overprint notes & plan to submit a few more. Here's P-121c, a 1000 Rials & a favourite already certified:
**https://sites.google.com/view/notaphilycculture/collecting-banknotes **
In premium above krs for retail pricing on low pop Unc world notes do you do flat $ amount or percent x KRS which is for a raw Unc note. What about premium for grade like 67 vs 65? Both these pertinent considerations IMO.
Since we don’t know the real grade distributions of ungraded notes out there the grade prem prob a matrix. Or instead To keep simple the premium tack on could be a graduated matrix $ Amt or pct based on pop finest known / top pop, single digit pop, double digit pop, etc. this wb matrix based on pop for current grade and number higher. I c no reason give these away at flat raw cv.
For me, the submission pricing structure of US TPG is too high, structured like some insiders' club & I can imagine a LOT of collectors (with high quality notes) being turned off/or taking a pass on having their UNC notes submitted. That means going by the TPG population reports is a pretty risky/uncertain venture. This is especially true for notes that are 50 YO or less. It's only been a couple decades that TPG has finally started to take off. IF I were to just use the pop reports as a guide to what I collect, then I might be after specimens (which I hate). Specimens were never issued & theoretically (at least in my mind) they should be in great shape (but most aren't). To me, they're like getting into NCC (non circulating coins).
Then one sees way too many over graded banknotes, notes with obvious errors in their Krause ID#/incorrect attribution, typos or some such oversight. Our BCS is by no means perfect but I can honestly say that most of his GEM66 are PMG's 67 or 68. He grades like most collectors would grade (conservatively). Sometimes he has labelled with a typo (or something like that) but rarely, if ever, incorrectly identified something (& freely corrects the labelling for about 1/4 the price of the current US TPG's). I've had him correct 1 out 200 notes I've submitted.
I find the premiums attached to "top pop" a bit ludicrous or 'over the top.' What I have observed is a lot of ambitious young collectors with little experience, but deep pockets, get into bidding wars over pretty common recent issues. I'd rather get an older tougher issue (like a 1960 Falkland 5 Pound note P-9a) at AU50EPQ to UNC64EPQ than a 1983 5 Pound at GEMUNC68. BTW: there are 2 P-9a at UNC-68 and only 1 of the 1983 at that same top grade, but quite honestly, I would be just as happy with the lower graded older note, so long as it has nice eye appeal and no distracting issues.
**https://sites.google.com/view/notaphilycculture/collecting-banknotes **
So here's a 50Pence I picked up recently. I didn't buy it b/c it had a high grade. It was more b/c I felt it was a good price & it filled a gap. Below is the Pop report for the same note (upper grades). So you can see that 73 notes are in the same 'UNC67' grade & 31 are even higher.
Honest to goodness- at least for me- it really makes no difference to me. It's a nice note but I'd doubt I'd pay a premium (& I paid about what KR suggested as UNC). Perhaps that was too much but I did see notes with the same, or lower grades, go for as much or more. So, at the end of the day, I'm happy (but again, I didn't go for this simply b/c of its lofty grade). Grading is subjective. If I cut this out of a holder and gave it to our BCS guy, he'd probably give it a 65.
**https://sites.google.com/view/notaphilycculture/collecting-banknotes **
Yeah...a lot of hype. Reminds me of the registry sets of Lincoln memorial cents.
I look at how Trusted Traditions in Florida prices their graded world currency, John Markis a real expert in the business. They have a shop in Ft Lauderdale Florida.
Quality graded top pop notes no joke IMO.
Many don’t really realize how scarce a lot of world notes are in Gem. WPM is the new frontier of numismatics.
At shows demand for graded notes especially low or top pop from my table has been high. I believe there is a solid future there. There are many who design their interest by theme, country, birthdate, etc. It is a fascinating area vs the same old boring, expensive task of assembling a coin date set of a particular series.
No offense, but I beg to differ.
I've been watching TT listings on eBay for quite some time now. They routinely list slabbed very common/high grade notes with all kinds of puffed up language about investing for the long term. No "expert" would describe notes in this way unless they were looking to sell to suckers. We're talking about notes easily obtainable in UNC bulk for pennies a piece. I'm not saying there isn't a market for slabbed 66+ notes; clearly there is...and TT isn't the only offender in this regard. But the bottom line is that a lot of people are going to be in for a rude surprise someday when they try to sell these notes, and I for one don't think it's good for the hobby.
Oh, and don't get me started about the notes they list at 5 to 25 times market price. Here's just one example:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/312535350035?hash=item48c48efb13:g:jfwAAOSwZTtckVUp
This note is worth $25 UNC, and you can easily get it for less on eBay. Listing it slabbed at 67 for $695 is downright obscene. It's misleading. No "expert" would price things in this super misleading way. They'll leave this listing up for a month or so, to put out there that it's an "expensive" note, in the hopes that a couple of suckers will bid it up at some point.
"I'm not saying there isn't a market for slabbed 66+ notes; clearly there is...and TT isn't the only offender in this regard. But the bottom line is that a lot of people are going to be in for a rude surprise someday when they try to sell these notes, and I for one don't think it's good for the hobby."
I agree completely & also caution how gross exaggeration & hyperbole can spoil this fun hobby. In fact when I saw P-84a listed by TT for over 60 times BV I wasn't sure I wanted to collect world notes. I then realized that it was him (& a few likeminded sellers) who had to be avoided at all costs (otherwise I'd be in the poor house). Sellers who regularly slab common notes & then list them at high BIN on eBay (or elsewhere) are annoying & hold the World currency hobby back (IMO). We've all seen this with our own currency (we've seen faked errors, novelty notes with bogus Polar Bear stamps hyped up BOC $2, etc) & such hyperbolic "TOP POP" listings don't sit well in my books. It just sullies an otherwise decent/cool hobby.
"Many don’t really realize how scarce a lot of world notes are in Gem."
-for tougher nations (& for some of their higher/older denominations): a resounding "yes!" Notes in VF+ with a "Q" are tough. But for just any common, recent banknotes like P-84a (or "as219" example)- an absolute "No Deal!"
"WPM is the new frontier of numismatics."
It should be but it is taking a long time to catch on. My suspicion is too many common banknotes are being trumped up as "Top Pop" etc & similar dodgy listings have been sold to a large number of unsuspecting new world currency collectors. I have bought a few note incorrectly listed (the listing is tough or uncommon variety but the note is the common variety). I have flagged several sellers who have misleading or poorly listed items & they DON'T revise. Such practices are the blight of this hobby (IMO) & i will continue to flag dodgy sellers.
Once a person realizes they've got something that will take a lifetime to appreciate, they usually keep it to themselves ("suck it up") & will never participate again.
**https://sites.google.com/view/notaphilycculture/collecting-banknotes **
Buy the note, not the holder. I have holdered notes, but I collect by type and not the nicest grade because frankly some of the stuff I collect will never have an example in 67 etc unless it is a specimen. I collect mostly older stuff anyway so such lofty grades are a pipe dream.
At as219 -
The Lebanon note P65b 1972-78 you cite - KRS CV in raw Unc is $60 (2018 24th Ed) which is essentially CU 60. I would wager a graded 67 note worth much more. It’s PMG Pop in 67 is 10/0 making it a top pop note. He is asking $695 for his note. So what? The CAC premium (per CPG) on a 1924 $20 Gold MS66 Comon Date Saint is about $1100. On a MS 67 CAC 1924 Saint $18,000. And this due to the CAC sticker which indicates it’s an A or B coin in the grade range. C coins don’t get the sticker (JA podcast).
As far as your $25 value u cite on the Lebanon P65b note do you have a PMG 67 note sell me at that ROFL?
If it this were a one-off I might give TT the benefit of the doubt, but it's not.
In any case, Krause never got these notes right. They group four different dates together under p65b: 1972, 1973, 1974 and 1978. 1972 is by far _the hardest. It's one of the only Lebanon notes from this series I'm missing, and the _only _note of this bunch that might sell for $695. The other dates are common, and no surprise, TT's note is dated 1973. I just looked on eBay for notes dated 1973 that have sold recently. Here's a typical example. Just in case you can't access it, it's the exact same note as TT's -- actually probably from the same pack -- PMG 66 EQP for $27. That's about right, maybe a little low. So you're trying to tell me a 67 is _25 times more expensive than a 66? Please. I don't know how you guys roll with coins in terms of grades and prices, but with WPM this overpricing is so egregious that it basically becomes deceptive. There is no rational explanation for listing it at $695 other than hoping a sucker will fall for it...and that, it my book, isn't quite consistent with an outfit whose first name is "Trusted"...
Let’s not trash dealers here. If you don’t pay the money he’s asking that’s your call. I would not be buyer there either but on the sell side…..seeking pricing matrix / system. Just been getting a lot of my better notes (high raw value wise) graded many coming back top or low pop. Next batch CSA / Obsoletes.
He has a very impressive shop in FL. If I recall it’s right on the beach next to this this restaurant right on water. Fantastic beach scene / beautiful women right outside my window table not more than 3-4 ft from me. Then looked over to left saw his super looking shop - thought my gosh does he have it made or not! Haven’t recalled that in years. It must take some money have a shop there.
As far as the note that went for $27 nice pickup for somebody the seller gave it away around grading cost. No I would not give a 67 away for 66 money lol. However I do believe getting what one believes is all the money can be a challenge. I tend to go with a more cost plus view that will move the item if it’s been sitting around too long.
I am simply out to research extrude pricing system on these. But if seller has pop of 1 top pop he is in the drivers seat. With 1881-s MS65 generic dollars tending around $200 (common as dirt) I would sit on mine at my price (top pop notes) for a long time. And if I could buy one for $39 (PMG) off the bay like one just recently heck no I am giving them away.
So it's ok to praise dealers but not to say anything critical or negative about them? Besides, I didn't bring them up, you did, and I felt the subject of TT needed a little balance.
One other comment here. You say that you've been getting a lot of your notes back top/low pop. I don't know how long you've been watching WPM, but here's the thing: until very, very recently, WPM never scored higher than 66 PPQ/EPQ. Then, all of a sudden, within the past year or two, 67s, 68s and higher began to show up. We're talking about super common notes here, not rarities. Now you tell me, which is more likely: somehow collectors started finding marginally better notes, or the TPGs decided they could generate more business by assigning higher grades? As a dealer, sure, I can understand why this might appeal. But as a collector, generating artificial scarcity by making distinctions that even expert collectors can't distinguish doesn't bode well for the hobby.
Just out of curiosity, how many paper money dealers do you know who get rich doing it?
I definitely agree that getting what one believes to be all the money can be a challenge, especially when what one "believes" is wrong. Artificial scarcity is artificial.
I want also to clarify one thing. I am not at all saying that condition or top population doesn't matter. I collect Egypt, for example. There are certain pre-1952 notes that are common in VF or less but quite scarce in XF or better and virtually nonexistent in PPQ/EPQ. These notes command many multiples over lower-graded notes if you can even find them, which is a challenge. But modern notes that are printed with cutting edge technology, acquired by dealers/collectors fresh in the pack to be sent off to TPGs? Totally different animal. They only reason 68s and 69s are "scarce" is that only a tiny percentage of the many millions of issued notes will ever be submitted in the first place. Does that make them rare? Or just artificially rare?
I get it. Why wouldn't you? It's your business. But as a "consumer" of these notes, in my humble opinion, the hype over "top pop" notes is no bueno for the hobby.
Pop is a relevant number to me in gauging likelihood another dealer in bourse room has one. An example would be a world coin with single digit pop (unlikely competitor has one). A generic slabbed Morgan dollar with pop in tens of thousands likelihood high a competitor offering one at or close to wholesale bid. So likelihood one could retail one low.
On WPM low pop can be a selling point but who knows if availability out there in raw Unc bundles, especially modern issues 1960 and after. As far as somebody getting $800 moon money on a $60 CV note in raw Unc thats quite a spin of the roulette wheel. I launched this thread to see what reactions, opinion are on these. Of course the proof in the pudding wb our example note going to auction.