Opinion requested: Compare value of sold 1918-D PCGS/CAC MS66+ to 1921 OGH PCGS/CAC MS66 walker.
oreville
Posts: 11,718 ✭✭✭✭✭
The rarities in MS-66 are essentially identical. The qualities of the two coins are very similar.
POPS ANALYSIS:
1918-D has 3 in 66 1 in 66+ none finer. So 4 total in 66 and 66+ combined
1921-P has 4 in 66 0 in 66+ none finer. So 4 total in 66 and 66+ combined.
Both coins are pop one per CAC .
Both coins have none finer.either at PCGS or CAC .
1918-D is slightly scarcer per PCGS in MS-65 but more common per CAC than 1921.
1918-D is more common per both PCGS and CAC in MS-64.
The 1918-D is an MS-66+ whereas the 1921 is from the Jack Lee collection and is in an older OGH PCGS holder and has never been resubmitted to PCGS for an half grade upgrade.
At the very least the market values of both should be relatively equal?
I was astounded to observe how two registry collectors went to the boards to win the 1918-D walker at any cost to win the 1918-D resulting in a price realized of $340,750 as compared to a commonly accepted RETAIL price sheet value of $120,000.
The more famous 1921 walker has a retail price valuation of about half of the 1918-D walker.
Are we looking at a inefficient market comparative valuation compunded by the fascination of the 66+ grade even compared to the OGH PCGS label?
The 1921 walker is shown below (Note it received a CAC sticker AFTER this photo was taken):
The 1918-D walker is shown below:
GRADE ANALYSIS:
both coins have a minor bag mark on or near Liberty leg and a very slight luster graze on the sun which should probably preclude both from MS-67 but not always anymore.
Both coin have awesome bright luster usually absent in earlier walkers. The Legend photo makes the coin seem darker than it really is.
Both coin exhibit equally strong strikes but the earlier 1918 walker date is more recognized for not being usually as well struck as 1921.
Really splitting hairs at this point.
Comments
While what you say makes some sense, they are not equal from a Registry Set perspective.
Good to see strong money in the hobby!
Why is that? Is it due to pop’s?
pops are essentially equal but The 1921 is slightly more scarce but does not have the 66 plus grade as it has never been submitted for such.
i prefer the OGH holder over the newer slab in plus grade.
Looks like the registry collectors, at present, value the plus graded coin in a newer PCGS holder over that of an OGH label holder?
This may very well change as the OGH slabs get even scarcer?
As Keynes said, “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
Just avoid the silly registry battles (especially with mega-millionaires and billionaires) and build your sets, with discipline, under your own budgetary constraints. And have fun collecting!
Just my 2 cents!
Wondercoin
This occurs when two deep pockets want the same coin at the same time. Nothing is rational in the registry wars. It could be a get-it-now or wait until another one becomes available situation, which could take years and then you could be further behind the 8-ball and have to pay even more for one.
Orevile,
I like the 21's in the walker series,I have always been a keydate kind of collector, but IMo, I would take the 18-d shown here hands down if I could only own one or the other. I can understand why the 18d- went high with two deep pocketers vying for the top coin.
If I had the money to spend for a coin in this price range, I'd never buy either one at anything close to the prices here. But if I did, it would be for the 1921 which is a key date and presumably still means something.
What you're seeing here, on that 18-D 66+, is a grossly inflated price due to registry pressure. If another one is 'made' and becomes available to the market, that price will likely be cut in half. I have never been impressed by 'plus' grades, so for the money, I'd much prefer the 1921 in base 66, at the lower price. Another reason for the strong price of the 18-D is the fact that it's a strike rarity (much like the 1919-D) and commands much higher prices, in higher grades, whereas the 1921 is very well produced and can be found well struck without much effort.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set:
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I believe bidders on this material are wealthy and will bid up the coin they want to acquire.
For a billionaire paying 340k for a coin they really want where price guide reflects 120k basically meaningless. Like the average person paying $20 dine out vs drive thru of $5.
With that kind of expensive low pop material it comes down to who wants it most and what their taste is.
Walkerfan as well as others make a good point.
The 1921 walker has two bigger sisters (1921-D and 1921-S) which are even more famous and more scarce than the 1921 whereas the 1918-D has only one bigger sister, the 1919-D!
Wondercoin is also correct when he commented on how irrational the pricing can be.
i keep thinking that the market is more rational than it really is.
Good feedback and thank you to all.
Oreville
Your coin is likely worth more than you think. Registry bidders may not bid it up as much as the recent 18-D because there are three other 66 "events" for a 1921 at PCGS (not sure there are three other coins). However, a quick look at the registry sets shows only Mr. Forsythe has a 1921 in MS66 (unstickered).
CoinFacts shows a survival estimate of 50 coins for 1918-D in 65 or better and 90 coins for 1921 in 65 or better. Both estimates sound high to me.
Consistent with this perceived scarcity/rarity in Gem or better, the 1918-D is a 9 point coin in the registry, the 1921 is an 8 point coin.
Setting aside registry factors, your 1921 would benefit from lot viewing. Luster like that needs to be seen.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
I remember when the same 1918-D mercury dime in PCGS/CAC high grade overtook the 1916-D mercury dime price-wise 12 years ago. It was a shocker as the same registry auction bidding war occurred in 2009. Over the next 5 years the 1918-D dime fell back price-wise so that the 1916-D dime reclaimed its title as the Queen of Mercury dimes.
I recently watched a high grade modern (reasonably worth $4,000-$5,000) fetch around $6,000 at auction. But, a previous auction had a “whale” paying $19,000 for the same grade (and very low quality). The (2) prior auction appearances (with a lower pop) were each in the $5,000’s right before the $19,000 record price. The coin should find its way back down to $5,000 soon and the $19,000 price realized will just be an interesting footnote in the history of the coin throughout time (until, of course, hyperinflation makes all $5,000 coins worth $19,000).
The only difference with the classics is that you can sometimes just add one “0” to the numbers and tell the same story. 😂. The prices realized often prove nothing at all besides the irrational markets we are now a part of. One should just try to be on the winning side of one or more of these trades.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
I'd much rather have a OGH MS66 especially on the 1921 being so bright white.
Worth a + premium to me as I know the OGH coin surface wise is stable.
This was the answer I was looking for but it appears we are in the minority for the moment. But as plus grades become more common and OGH become more scarce, the registry collectors will convert to being OGH collectors?
Your comment of "> Worth a + premium to me as I know the OGH coin surface wise is stable." should hit home especially for red copper cent collectors.
Both coins are super nice, but the 1921 would pull me in every time.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
Agreed! The registry is a powerful drug.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
I would take the 21 and am curious if it has been tried for a +. Looks like a good candidate to me! Of course if it does you loose the OGH.
I was not trying to compare the 21 vs the 18-D as to which is better. I like both. To find a pre -1921 walker looking like the 18-D is a true miracle of minting a special coin and careful storage.
I have been told by many in the know that it was a virtual guarantee that the coin would plus grade as well as a real shot 67 as well. But I declined as I did not want to give up the OGH and possibly the CAC sticker, as well if it upgraded to 67.
At issue is my fear that if suddenly one 1921 walker makes 67 then suddenly 6 more will 67 and so the race goes on to 68!
I like the look of the 21 better so there!
Remember this craziness? A fool and his money...
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/52580353/10c-1938-s-pcgs-ms68--fb-cac/
Oh my!!!! LOL.
I know you like to argue!! LOL.
I can only retort that you know halves better than anyone. Barber halves that is.
“Guides” for thinly traded material don’t mean all that much. The margin of error is huge, especially when the items have unique qualities.
Between that and the $130,000 58 Franklin you know where to go to consign your high end toners!
“Date Sold 6/27/2019”
Not much more needs to be said.
Wondercoin
Not following you.
Not following you.
Perhaps few would.
We will catch up next time we talk.
Wondercoin