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Kentucky Derby 2021
doubledragon
Posts: 23,048 ✭✭✭✭✭
in Sports Talk
Who will be watching the 2021 Kentucky Derby? I believe these are the horses in the derby.
ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY
RANK HORSE POINTS
1 Essential Quality 140
2 Hot Rod Charlie 110
3 Super Stock 109
4 Like the King 104
5 Known Agenda 102
6 Rock Your World 100
7 Bourbonic 100
8 Medina Spirit 74
9 Midnight Bourbon 66
10 Mandaloun 52
11 Caddo River 50
12 Highly Motivated 50
13 Helium 50
14 Soup and Sandwich 40
15 Dynamic One 40
16 Sainthood 40
17 Hidden Stash 32
18 Dream Shake 30
19 O Besos 25
20 Get Her Number 20
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Comments
Always! And I alway venture a small wager. I went in 2001?? It’s a wonderful event. I’m adding I’ve never actually picked a winner but have cashed an exacta.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Anytime you leave with more than you came with, you're a winner.
I'd love to be there in person.
I'll take #9 Midnight Bourbon, no rhyme or reason. Just like the name.
Essential Quality in the top 3
Gentlemen, surely you jest. I'll take Soup and Sandwich for the win.
Put $2 to win on every horse in the race.
Then you've got a guaranteed winner.
Known Agenda at 12-1 has the breeding. I’ll take him to win and box a few horses next week.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Better yet put $2 to show on them all and you will cash 3 tickets.
I like this show.
James McIngvale, owner of Gallery Furniture Stores, has launched a company promotion titled: “Kentucky Derby Fave Wins, You Win,” in which customers purchasing a mattress valued at over $3,000 will get their money back if Essential Quality wins Saturday's Run For the Roses at Churchill Downs.
To cover his liability for the promotion, “Mattress Mack” told the Thoroughbred Daily News he plans to make at least a $2 million wager on Essential Quality to win the Kentucky Derby, and could bet as much as $4 million.
https://www.paulickreport.com/horseplayers-category/largest-derby-wager-ever-mattress-mack-plans-to-bet-at-least-2-million-on-essential-quality/#:~:text=To cover his liability for,as much as $4 million.
OMG do you know what this will do the odds on the other horses. I can't wait.
I'll tell ya what this will do.
To properly illustrate, i'm throwing out last year's 2020 Derby because of the lesser interest in it because of scheduling it much later in the year due to covid. "Only" 31 million dollars in the win, place, show pool.
The 2019 Derby had a win, place, show pool of over 65 million dollars. This 2021 Derby should probably be around that number.
Essential Quality is expected to go off the favorite.
So a 2 million dollar win bet on the favorite of course will have some effect on the win odds. However with a 20 horse field, there won't be a significant effect on any horse as what you may be thinking. Perhaps another horse that goes off say 9-2 at post time, without the 2 million dollar bet, it may have gone off say around 4-1.
That being said, i've seen the following crazy effect at the track a number of times. A bridge jumper heavily bets a horse to win with say 20 minutes to post. That horse is then at odds of 1-9, and every other horse is 50-1 and higher, many of them 99-1. Well then every gambler in the track sees this, and starts overbetting the other horses. Sometimes to the point whereby the heavily bet horse early in the betting as mentioned, at post time may go off at odds higher than it might have without the initial big bet.
Bottom line, if you think you just discovered the goose that lays the golden eggs on this race, well sorry to inform you this isn't it.
The only thing I know about horse race betting is to bet on the one that does his business right before the race starts!
Dimes: 54S, 53P, 50P, 49S, 45D+S, 44S, 43D, 41S, 40D+S, 39D+S, 38D+S, 37D+S, 36S, 35D+S, all 16-34's
Quarters: 52S, 47S, 46S, 40S, 39S, 38S, 37D+S, 36D+S, 35D, 34D, 32D+S
74 Topps: 37,38,46,47,48,138,151,193,210,214,223,241,256,264,268,277,289,316,435,552,570,577,592,602,610,654,655
1997 Finest silver: 115, 135, 139, 145, 310
1995 Ultra Gold Medallion Sets: Golden Prospects, HR Kings, On-Base Leaders, Power Plus, RBI Kings, Rising Stars
Rock Your World. Bad draw PP #15. Favorite drew PP #14. They should break on top together. These two front running speed demons could set it up for a closer.
I'm hoping the mattress guy plunks $4M on the favorite...
I just saw the gate draw. Known Agenda was my horse but he drew terrible at the one spot. Maybe shift my focus another TP trained horse at 20-1 with Dynamic One
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Known Agenda drew the pole and went from 12-1 to 6-1.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Maybe "James McIngvale, owner of Gallery Furniture Stores" bet on the wrong horse. LOL
mattress mack is chuck norris' half-brother
Sloppy track today at Churchill.
Hope it quits raining. Too hard to pick mudders, if more than half the field has never seen an off track. Pedigree helps, but far from a sure thing.
They say, surface shouldn't make a difference to great horses, but it does. I've seen nags that shouldn't be in a race, look like a different horse on an off track.
If in fact the Derby is run under adverse track conditions no race could be more unfair to the bettors. Regardless of poor track conditions none or at most a few horses will be scratched out of the race. Why? Simply put :Prestige, to run in the celebrated race. Owners, breeders, plan for this race for months. No other race has the allure/mystique of the "Derby". Steeped in tradition. For these reasons the horses will run, and a fair amount will perform poorly. This race is known as a "black type" race. Where, in the past performance line, your finish will denote your participation in the race with bold type. Very impressing for those involved. Unless there is something in a past performance line or breeding it really is a long shot predicting a winner. Most of these horses will not have an off track performance line. If you go to the vast majority flat track races across the country where like conditions exist (mud,sloppy etc.) you will see numerous/majority of the field scratched. Not so in the Derby. There is a reason for these scratches. Safety of the horse and jockey being paramount. This action in turn at least clues in a bettor that the horse had little or no chance racing to win in these conditions. Hence the scratch. A plus for a bettor. So be careful with your off track picks. I'll be loading up the darts for my pick to throw for my bet if in fact the track comes up "off". Good luck to all in the race and lets hope no injuries befall man nor beast, and your losses be small, and your winnings be large.
Horrible post for him. TP winced when he saw the draw. No horse since Ferdinand has won from the one hole
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I recall Bee Bee Bee, a longshot in the 1972 Preakness, won wire to wire on a sloppy track. Beating heavy favorite Riva Ridge that ran fourth.
They say the sloppy track cost Riva Ridge the Triple Crown, and it's hard to argue with them considering how he easily won the Derby and Belmont.
Riva Ridge was owned by Penny Tweedy and trained by Lucien Lauren, the duo who won the Triple Crown with Secretariat the next year.
I know. 15 horses jockeying for the rail. I may have to amend my KD choice. 😢
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
There's always the "Kentucky Derby Dartboard" that can be used, sold in fine stores everywhere.
https://sports.yahoo.com/human-rights-group-seeks-to-bar-uae-prime-minister-sheikh-mohammed-from-kentucky-derby-over-his-missing-daughter-essential-quality-231635470.html
Human rights group wants UAE prime minister banned from Kentucky Derby over his missing daughter
Could be some bad karma going on with Essential Quality.
We shall see.
I feel you.
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Known Agenda back to 11-1. Odds are too good to pass him up. Gotta wheel him with Hot Rod Charlie and Medina Spirit.
So my KD bets are,
1 $20 WPS
3 horse exacta box for $50 #1, 8, 9
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Had a Baffert horse. Just the wrong one.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Heck of a good bet.
If Irad couldn't overcome the deadly one hole today, nobody can.
Had 2 of the 3 in the money. Unfortunately close doesn’t count. That one hole is a black hole for sure.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Threw the darts again this year and came up empty.
https://www.aol.com/sports/baffert-says-derby-winner-medina-135842859-142614165.html
Baffert says Derby winner Medina Spirit tested positive
Update: Just after 11:30 a.m. ET, Churchill Downs issued a statement acknowledging Medina Spirit’s positive drug test and announced an immediate suspension for his Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, barring him from entering any horses in races at Churchill Downs.
“The connections of Medina Spirit have the right to request a test of a split sample and we understand they intend to do so,” the press release said. “To be clear, if the findings are upheld, Medina Spirit’s results in the Kentucky Derby will be invalidated and Mandaloun will be declared the winner.”
Yea, and the bettors who had win tickets on Mandaloun, should be real happy with their consolation prize of nothing.
Bob Baffert, he's nothing more than a watered down Ric Flair.
🤔
Also bettors who held tri box tickets with the favorite Essential Quality, can't be too happy right now.
Essential Quality would have run third, and having the other two horses in the box, would have been a very nice payoff.
If anyone still has the ticket, maybe they can list it on Ebay as a novelty item winning ticket.
Bob Baffert might win a few matches, but he'll never be the real Ric Flair, wooooooo!
how stupid is it to test these horses AFTER the race???
I was reading a little bit about Mr. Baffert, and I read over the years that his horses have failed something like 29 drug tests. Is this true, is he doping up his horses?
Their defense is somebody from another barn did it, or the drug was in the hay the horse ate.
If they prove a trainer is purposely drugging horses, they generally receive a lifetime ban.
I'm very suspicious of Mr. Baffert right now. I'm not sure how I feel about him yet. I might like him, but then again I might not!
I don't know the historical details, but i do know that Baffert has had a sordid reputation about this for a long time.
Frankly, the railbirds and high rollers at the track are mostly gambling addicts, and really couldn't care less about the race they just lost, as long as there's another race coming up to bet and give them hope for a nice score. And the track owners really couldn't care less about the cheating as long as the bettors keep putting their money thru the pari-mutuel machines.
Of course nobody likes cheaters, and there are laws against it. However the reality is unless it's egregious, often nothing drastic is done to the stars of the game like a Bob Baffert.
An earlier post stated "announced an immediate suspension for his Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, barring him from entering any horses in races at Churchill Downs." We shall see if this suspension is permanent or if Baffert's attorneys get him reinstated with a fine that he could easily afford.
Perhaps a well publicized scandal such as this will change things? But i doubt it.
every athlete busted for PEDs (out loud): "i have no idea how that got in my system."
every horse busted for PEDs (thinking): "i know exactly how that sh*t got in my system and the exact mf'er who put it there."
Bob is sleazy. Period. Gaspipe Bob
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I'm telling you, Bob is nothing more than a cheap imitation of Ric Flair, he'll never be the original!
Been telling my wife this for years!
This horse has never been on this medication his entire life. I’m extremely suspicious of the testing.
This is not a performance enhancing drug.
Something is rotten at Churchill Downs.
I don’t normally side with an element that’s accused but this stinks.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
So it wasn't cancel culture
So it wasn't Churchill Downs
It looks like it was Baffert himself who likely caused the positive test with an ointment
Regardless Medina Spirit is cleared for the Preakness. They should make Baffort ride the horse
m
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......