So you are saying it better to make them or wait to buy the 2nd, 3rd, 4th example...
LOL. I'm saying that I really don't want to play that game with moderns.
Unless you have an exceptional eye, it is really expensive to play this game at $40 a pop. If you have an exceptional eye, then you are probably better off "making" them.
As to whether or not it is better to buy or wait, I'd need a crystal ball. I've seen a lot of condition rarities slide in price when the populations changed. On the other hand, some others have held up pretty well.
One thing I would never do is buy RED copper as a conditional rarity. You are just a little oxidation away from being buried in a coin.
@Higashiyama said:
But I think Mark is talking about the type of situation where the population in 66/67/68 goes, for example, from 50/3/0 to 60/10/0. The 67s are still “very top” but they may be a lot less valuable.
I understood---just saying my point was the to> @MFeld said:
@CoinscratchFever said: @jmlanzaf Yes, it is 67+ And when the grade was emailed in early March the price guide was 350.00 last week lo and behold it is 650.00.
So yes I’m a big proponent of exaggerated prices and who wouldn’t be if you have some of these just sitting around.
I suppose if you needed one to complete your set that you would not be too happy about it.
You also wouldn’t be very happy if you owned one, others were made and yours took a large hit in value.
I can think of a couple examples (1912-s nickels) of this happening (and it's possible with any coin that a hoarde is found at any grade) but how often does it happen now where the very top of the census suddenly gets inflated? Especially with 19th cent or earlier coins
I agree that large changes in populations - whether in terms of actual numbers or percentages - are less likely for older coins. When I made my comment, I wasn’t even thinking of the appearance of hoards. But rather, I was speaking to grade-flation. And very few areas are immune from that.
@Higashiyama said:
But I think Mark is talking about the type of situation where the population in 66/67/68 goes, for example, from 50/3/0 to 60/10/0. The 67s are still “very top” but they may be a lot less valuable.
I understood---just saying my point was the to> @MFeld said:
@CoinscratchFever said: @jmlanzaf Yes, it is 67+ And when the grade was emailed in early March the price guide was 350.00 last week lo and behold it is 650.00.
So yes I’m a big proponent of exaggerated prices and who wouldn’t be if you have some of these just sitting around.
I suppose if you needed one to complete your set that you would not be too happy about it.
You also wouldn’t be very happy if you owned one, others were made and yours took a large hit in value.
I can think of a couple examples (1912-s nickels) of this happening (and it's possible with any coin that a hoarde is found at any grade) but how often does it happen now where the very top of the census suddenly gets inflated? Especially with 19th cent or earlier coins
I agree that large changes in populations - whether in terms of actual numbers or percentages - are less likely for older coins. When I made my comment, I wasn’t even thinking of the appearance of hoards. But rather, I was speaking to grade-flation. And very few areas are immune from that.
m not sure it even needs to be grade-flation. There are still a lot of nice raw coins out there. You just need one exceptional coin to re-enter the market after 50 years and find its way into a slab.
It wasn't US coins, but a local dealer/friend had to do an insurance appraisal of a very old collection of British coppers. 100% raw. Absolutely stunning. Pretty much complete back to the 17th/18th century with many proofs and multiple coins with original mintages under 100. Most of them gem UNCs.
The guy had started putting the collection together in the 50s and 60s. If and when that collection makes it to a major auction house, it is going to alter the populations significantly for multiple rare coins in the series.
I only said it once. Please don’t quote me twice like that and give the appearance that I repeated myself!
😄
😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Making them is much more fun than buying them. Regardless of income. And whether you can sell it or not is another story that doesn’t really matter when your on a successful hunt.
Just ask Indiana! You never see him go to the pawn shop at the end of the movie because well that’s boring.
@jmlanzaf said:
m not sure it even needs to be grade-flation. There are still a lot of nice raw coins out there.
I think people underestimate the number of raw coins out there that have never been sent for grading. There's a common saying about raw coins on this board: "There's a reason it's not in a holder." One of those reasons is that the collection it came from was put together before graded coins were popular (or even existed).
Of course, there are fewer collections like that every day as collectors get older/pass away and the collections are sold, but there are still plenty out there. At the coin club I used to belong to, we had a show-and-tell at every meeting. It was unusual for anyone to bring a slabbed coin to share.
@jmlanzaf said:
m not sure it even needs to be grade-flation. There are still a lot of nice raw coins out there.
I think people underestimate the number of raw coins out there that have never been sent for grading. There's a common saying about raw coins on this board: "There's a reason it's not in a holder." One of those reasons is that the collection it came from was put together before graded coins were popular (or even existed).
Of course, there are fewer collections like that every day as collectors get older/pass away and the collections are sold, but there are still plenty out there. At the coin club I used to belong to, we had a show-and-tell at every meeting. It was unusual for anyone to bring a slabbed coin to share.
Yes, definitely true of a lot of the old timers at my local coin club.
@MasonG said: “ I think people underestimate the number of raw coins out there that have never been sent for grading. ”
Do you know whether PCGS historical population data is a available to the general public? If I had this data available, for example, on a monthly basis for the past 25 years, I believe I could come up with plausible estimates of remaining ungraded coins, and also derive insights into the evolution of grading standards.
Comments
LOL. I'm saying that I really don't want to play that game with moderns.
Unless you have an exceptional eye, it is really expensive to play this game at $40 a pop. If you have an exceptional eye, then you are probably better off "making" them.
As to whether or not it is better to buy or wait, I'd need a crystal ball. I've seen a lot of condition rarities slide in price when the populations changed. On the other hand, some others have held up pretty well.
One thing I would never do is buy RED copper as a conditional rarity. You are just a little oxidation away from being buried in a coin.
I only said it once. Please don’t quote me twice like that and give the appearance that I repeated myself!
😄
😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Making them is much more fun than buying them. Regardless of income. And whether you can sell it or not is another story that doesn’t really matter when your on a successful hunt.
Just ask Indiana! You never see him go to the pawn shop at the end of the movie because well that’s boring.
I think people underestimate the number of raw coins out there that have never been sent for grading. There's a common saying about raw coins on this board: "There's a reason it's not in a holder." One of those reasons is that the collection it came from was put together before graded coins were popular (or even existed).
Of course, there are fewer collections like that every day as collectors get older/pass away and the collections are sold, but there are still plenty out there. At the coin club I used to belong to, we had a show-and-tell at every meeting. It was unusual for anyone to bring a slabbed coin to share.
Yes, definitely true of a lot of the old timers at my local coin club.
@MasonG said: “ I think people underestimate the number of raw coins out there that have never been sent for grading. ”
Do you know whether PCGS historical population data is a available to the general public? If I had this data available, for example, on a monthly basis for the past 25 years, I believe I could come up with plausible estimates of remaining ungraded coins, and also derive insights into the evolution of grading standards.