Are we seeing a shift in Tom Brady rookies?

craig44

A few years ago, the number one Brady rookie for high-end collectors was the upper deck SP Authentic. that card was overtaken by the Contenders Rookie Ticket. that card has seen some significant sales in the last 6 months and especially since the super bowl. 8.5's and 9's have gone for between 55k and 99k. the most recent bgs 9 sold on 3-3 for 85k, an 8.5 sold yesterday for 60k

looking at the last few months, there has been a steep and steady increase in the Bowman Chrome Refractor. there is less sales data for these as they are more rare than the contenders, but the data of late has been astounding. at the first of the year, Refractors were in the high teens/low 20k. the last three sales all happened in the last week. a psa 6 sold for 32k. a Bgs 9 then sold for 81K and last night a psa 9 with poor centering sold for 117K.

from what I can see, the 117k sale is the highest ever non champ ticket brady sale in a bgs or psa 9.

it seems that the BC Refractor has leapfrogged the contenders to be the #1 Brady rookie.

interesting times.

fergie23

I think a PSA 9 Contenders would sell for well over $150k. The pop on PSA 9 Brady Contenders RCs (17) is also significantly lower than PSA 9 Refractor Brady RCs (56).

Personally, I like the Contenders RC better but lower grade examples do seem to be narrowing the gap between the BC refractor and Contenders auto.

Robb

craig44

that is very possible. I wonder how much the pop is affected since PSA doesn't seem to number grade contenders anymore?

I know that overall, the Refractor seems to be a significantly more scarce card. between psa and bgs, contenders has 837 graded, refractor 353.

It is really fun to watch. prices are up so high across the board. do you know when the last psa 9 contenders sold?

I never thought I would ever see another card overtake contenders, but if this trend continues, BC refractor just might be the one to do it. you never know if it is a true trend or just a blip. with the increased attention the base chrome rookie is receiving though, it makes me think it is more than a blip.

fergie23

I haven't seen a PSA 9 contenders sell in quite a while (though one could have slipped by in one of the auction houses). Last sale I remember was like $45k a couple years ago. Around that time refractor PSA 9s were selling for ~$8k. There used to be quite a big price disparity between Brady BC refractors and Contenders RCs.

I think the refractor popularity in basketball has impacted football, so I wouldn't be shocked if the refractor continues to gain especially the collector grades.

I was not aware PSA isn't giving many number grades to Contenders these days. Back in the day, I cracked two BGS 9s and one SGC 96 Brady Contenders RCs and subbed to PSA and didn't get higher than an 8. The SGC 96, PSA put a tear in which lead to me not submitting to PSA for a decade (I was pretty upset and that was back when the SGC 96 was a $1,000 card). I think PSA graded the Brady Contenders differently than other Brady cards back then (since I cracked quite a few other BGS Brady rookies and got them into PSA 9 holders).

The Brady RC market is crazy. I have 20x-100x gains in ~75% of my Brady RC collection (for instance, I bought my BC refractor PSA 9 for $375 and my Fleer E-X PSA 9 for $146). I can't imagine what his rookie cards will cost in 10-15 years.

Robb

Batpig

Refractors in general seem to be going nuts.

craig44

@fergie23 said:
I haven't seen a PSA 9 contenders sell in quite a while (though one could have slipped by in one of the auction houses). Last sale I remember was like $45k a couple years ago. Around that time refractor PSA 9s were selling for ~$8k. There used to be quite a big price disparity between Brady BC refractors and Contenders RCs.

I think the refractor popularity in basketball has impacted football, so I wouldn't be shocked if the refractor continues to gain especially the collector grades.

I was not aware PSA isn't giving many number grades to Contenders these days. Back in the day, I cracked two BGS 9s and one SGC 96 Brady Contenders RCs and subbed to PSA and didn't get higher than an 8. The SGC 96, PSA put a tear in which lead to me not submitting to PSA for a decade (I was pretty upset and that was back when the SGC 96 was a $1,000 card). I think PSA graded the Brady Contenders differently than other Brady cards back then (since I cracked quite a few other BGS Brady rookies and got them into PSA 9 holders).

The Brady RC market is crazy. I have 20x-100x gains in ~75% of my Brady RC collection (for instance, I bought my BC refractor PSA 9 for $375 and my Fleer E-X PSA 9 for $146). I can't imagine what his rookie cards will cost in 10-15 years.

Robb

wow, sorry to hear about that tear. that one must have really stung. i don't blame you for being upset. that is a very good point about basketball impacting the football market. i hadn't thought of that. we will learn more about this topic in the next few months as we get more sales data on both cards.