Hard to believe people are paying the prices they are for the newer cards..
olb31
Posts: 3,352 ✭✭✭✭✭
Kobe and Lebron are top 10 players, but neither is probably in the top 5. Great, no doubt, but people are paying for these cards like they are the undisputed best ever. The following rookies should blow both of these dudes away, Psa 9/10 Russell, Chamberlain, West. Maybe even Oscar. Hard to find these cards at all much less in PSA 9 condition. No where for the KOBE and Lebron million dollar cards to go but down, imo.
Trout. I know the board is in love with him, but so far in his career, he just hasn't got it done. Never in the playoffs, team comes in last more than they have winning records. Reminds me a lot of Ernie Banks, tremendous talent, great career, but never got in done when it mattered. This will effect the value of Trout cards in the long haul.
Comments
Metric's folks LOVE Trout.
Excellent ballplayer and easily one of his generation best but I feel overrated by many. Still numbers and on-field performance are not the only factors in a card or players demand. There are some cards for some players that transcend. if he ever does get into series and contributed to a win who knows how high demand can go.
What I do not get it is the going rate for Canseco Rookies in PSA10 or Bo Jackson's. Sure they were red-hot in their day 3 decades ago, sure old folks have fond memories, but one of these was an admitted cheater/PED user and Bo while in 2 Sports never made any real impact in either due to injuries. Neither will either ever be even a remote HOF consideration and pretty much anyone under 40 could not care less about cards for either player. In fact Canseco's daughter is far better known that he is to anyone under 40 and most under 30 never knew her father steroid-ed up for the A's.
Memories are nice but throwing almost a grand after cards from those players does not seem fiscally sound for the future. Rant over
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Trout is front runner for MVP odds. +200
Bregman 2nd: +1000
What's the over/under on the total number of called third strikes Trout watches go by this year?
Card prices aren’t a direct reflection of a players goat stack rank. Why would a 25 year old want to collect Jerry West over Lebron or Kobe, players they watched play, watched dominate? I find these types of threads as surprising as the surprise that is Lebron being more popular with current collectors then Oscar Robertson. Is this really that surprising?
The truly great thing about this hobby is that you can collect however you like to collect and your collection can be a completely personal journey for you. You don't have to worry about collecting what other people say people should be collecting or spend your money where other people say you should be spending your money.
At the absolute root of this hobby it should be fun. What's fun for some people may not be fun for others. But there's no "authority" anywhere that dictates who is correct and who is wrong. Collect what you like, within your own budget, help your fellow collectors if you can, make it a positive environment for people to exist in.
Collectors have different budgets. Some people have $50 a month to spend. Some people have virtually no limit to the amount they can spend. The hobby isn't about determining who should be valued more over another -- there are just WAY too many variables in that equation that have absolutely nothing to do with the performance of the two players.
If someone would rather spend $100k on a Dirk Nowitzki card than a Wilt Chamberlain card, they're not "wrong." The market isn't "wrong" either. The market isn't there to reflect who was a better player. The market reflects a nuanced equation of demand and supply, with demand consisting of any number of different subsets.
There's no wrong or right way to collect, just the way that brings you the most enjoyment. If we can find that way without dumping on others then that's a pretty special accomplishment in its own right.
Arthur
My money's on Trout as he does not need advance notice sent to him on what type of pitch is coming to clobber it.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Lol! I promise you, Trout knows what's coming, and he still can't pull the trigger. Trout's Achilles heel has always been the high heat in pressure situations. He gets rung up all of the time where the entire at bat, he never offered at a single pitch. Do you realize that there was a 13 game stretch last year where he got rung up 11 times! 11 CALLED THIRD STRIKES in 13 games. It occurred roughly from the Dodgers series in August through the Astros series 2 weeks later. Check out the at bats on the MLB app.
If the Angels finish anywhere near the playoffs, you'll wish you had your money on Rendon for MVP instead of Trout.
What surprises me the most on these newer cards that have gained so much value (Trout/Kobe/Lebron) is that most of these loans have huge populations out there. Cards are much less tied to standard trading concepts (ie supply and demand) than other more liquid commodities. But still, with those type of pops out there, you could have say a hundred or more Trout PSA 10s hit the market the same day if everyone panics and wants out of them. Which would cause the price to plummet. With some of those older cards with lower pops, that risk of a massive supply influx into the market is not there simply because much fewer of them exist.
try doing that to rendon! 😉
You seem like an Angel's fan
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
I watch more Angels games on MLB.TV than any other team, yes. I've seen most all of Trout's at bats the last several years. either live or on next day replay. But Angels fan? Not in the least. I enjoy their futility. I tune in because I get great laughs out of the stupid looks Trout has on his face as he heads back to the bench to grab some pine.
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It's been hard to admit it to myself, but I've had to come to the realization that I fundamentally do not understand the card market anymore. I've made strategic decisions with completely outdated thinking in the last year, and while I'm out an unbelievable amount of $$ in my win/loss on my trades, I do have cards now in my collection that are ones that I value more.
I grew up in the 80's and early 90's. I saw how ubiquitous certain sets were with my own eyes. Mountains of cards at every store in one little community in one little state. I admit that I am biased against these 2021 values of late 80's and early 90's stuff, and am also biased against the idea that they are good investments.
I also saw the mass exit of people from the hobby in the 90's because the crazy returns weren't there year over year. How can they be?
I don't know how to check that bias. Grading creates that artificial scarcity within the sea of nr-mt cards, but I will take my PSA 8 Rocket Richard 1955 parkhurst and go home...
Nathanael
Another one of these threads? Greatness doesn’t equal demand for cards. Otherwise Mantle wouldn’t be #1 in baseball cards and hitters would not be valued so much more highly across the board than pitchers. Popularity equals demand, which is one half of supply and demand, a pretty simple concept to understand.
Yaz Master Set
#1 Gino Cappelletti master set
#1 John Hannah master set
Also collecting Andre Tippett, Patriots Greats' RCs, Dwight Evans, 1964 Venezuelan Topps, 1974 Topps Red Sox
I'm not a LeBron fan at all, but he's most definitely Top 5. Likely #2.
I see card prices like I see stock prices - most of the time I can't give you an answer on why they go up or down. A stock beats expectations - great! The price should go up, right? Oh, what's that? It didn't beat them by ENOUGH so it dropped? Uh... ok.
Same thing with cards. I had Bo Jackson PSA 9 rookies at $20 on Ebay for an entire year (2nd half of 2019, 1st half of 2020). No one wanted them. Now they're 10 times that. Did Bo suddenly get more popular? Did his cards suddenly get more scarce? That tells me supply/demand doesn't have much to do with it.
Lebron #2, no way. Ok ball handler, ok passer, ok rebounder, ok shooter, ok defender. Nothing about his game sticks out to me. He just an overall great player and a top 10 player. His game is a lot like Shaq's was. He uses his power and strength to achieve greatness and much like Shaq neither is an overly "skilled" player using any metric.
Magic blows him away. Russell, 11 championships, best rebounder of all-time. Wilt was a scoring machine and wasn't allowed to dunk. Kareem, did everything. Larry, best shooter of all-time, great passer, etc. Oscar averaged a triple double, could do it all. Kobe was a better scorer.
to this generation he's number 1. and that's who's buying these cards.
My favorite player of all-time in any sport is Larry Bird. But just because he's my favorite and I have enough money to do it, why would I pay 1.8 million for his rookie card, when i can buy it for $250,000? PLus magic is on the card with him. In my opinion Bird and Magic were better than Kobe, albeit they are all great.
To a degree. Popularity (demand) used to be primarily what drove the market. Today, you have many people in the hobby who are strictly speculating on future investment. I think that eventually card population, popularity, and greatness in their sport will dictate value, as it mostly has in the past. Panini Prizm which seems to be the industry standard today keeps on driving production up and people keep buying. There have been 29,000 Luka Doncic 2018 regular issue cards graded already by PSA and the product has only been out 2 years. By contrast, the 2012 Kawhi Leonard Panini Prizm has had 2000 total graded and probably slowing down due to the fact that it's 9 years old. I don't care how good Luka Doncic ends up being, the value can't sustain. You can argue all day long on the talents of a particular player (Lebron IS a top 5 player!!) .
Just my two cents.
Ok defender? He's a 6x All-Defensive NBAer.
4x MVP, 4x Champ, 4x Finals MVP, 16x All-NBA. He's averaged 25/5/5 in 15 different seasons. The next highest is Oscar Robertson with only 8. 3rd in career points. 5th in career triple doubles. 5th in career ppg, 2nd all time in player efficiency, 8th all-time in assists.
And he's done it consistently for 18 years without a single down year. He's averaged 25+ per game for 17 straight years.
No player has done across the board what he's done for as long as he's done it. Not even Jordan.
Honestly, if you think Lebron is an "Ok" passer, scorer, rebounder, defender, etc then you probably shouldn't be commenting on basketball. He is top 3 all time (Jabbar, Jordan, James) with an argument to be made for any of the 3 being the GOAT.
I am a huge Larry Bird fan but Steph Curry is the best shooter of all time.
Robb
That OK passer lead the league in assists last year. Kobe was not a better scorer...look at his shooting percentage. Real low compared to any of the greats, and in my opinion, not a top 10 player.
Career assists per game:
Kobe 4.7
Larry 6.3
Lebron 7.4
and that's your right.
had you bought it 5 years ago when it was $30k, i'm sure you'd be laughing right now and REALLY consider him the goat.
this oughta be fun watching people of all generations and cities convince each other who the top 5 goats are and/or trying to convince each other who's overpaid for their rookie cards. what could go wrong? 😉
Hey, I'm a 64 year old white guy who grew up in Boston and had season tickets for most of the Bird years... Absolutely love the guy, but Jordan and yes, Lebron are both better players. Stats and facts don't lie.
For the record, I think the prices paid for all cards right now are insane. I believe a PSA 10 Bird/Magic rookie probably goes for over $500k in this market.
I don't think current prices for modern are sustainable either but I have been surprised before. I do think that if/when current prospects fail to live up to the hype their cards will plummet but that has always been the case (just prices never were anything close to what they are now for prospects so the plummet will be especially painful for those who bought based on the hype). We have already seen 30-40% price drops for some cards but other cards are setting new records every week. Still super frothy out there.
That said, I have steadily bought HOF/to-be HOF RC cards in PSA 9 across all sports for 2 decades and prices always go up over time for those cards. So even with the crazy prices now, 5+ years from now many of those prices will look like bargains.
Robb
Larry, MIchael, Russell, Magic never had to switch teams in order to win. Lebron won when Wade, Lebron and Chris Bosh combined to win. Then he had to get Anthony Davis to win in LA. Just think if Larry, Magic and Michael had of joined teams or Olajuwon, Jordan, and Magic or Dr J., Larry and Kareem.
Lebron looks great because he "had" to surround himself with All-Stars in order to get where he is at. Shaq scored a ton of points, but only because the NBA let him run over people, much like Lebron does. Lebron is a great player, no doubt, but when you have a league that treats the regular season like a warm up, doesn't really take it seriously, it's hard for me to take Lebron's stats seriously. You think LA is going to win 67 games this year or even 60 or even 55 or even 50. Boston went two years losing a total of three games at home, LA has already lost that many this year. The Bulls won 72 games. The player competed, now it's just lay up drills and uncontested three pointers.
Just my take.
If everybody else was paying 1.75 million for his rookie card, you’d pay 1.8 for it if you wanted a copy. Again, economics 101.
Yaz Master Set
#1 Gino Cappelletti master set
#1 John Hannah master set
Also collecting Andre Tippett, Patriots Greats' RCs, Dwight Evans, 1964 Venezuelan Topps, 1974 Topps Red Sox
Larry, Russell and Magic never switched teams because 1. there was no free agency until 1988 and 2. there was no salary cap and they were in big enough markets to cram 3-5 other HOFers on the same team. LeBron won in Cleveland with the worst supporting cast of any of that group.
Jordan switched teams. Does that not make him the greatest?
Some of the investors are not buying some of these cards because they think the player was the best/greatest. Rather they are anticipating future buyers will think they were the best/greatest. The investors just want to have those cards in their inventory to sell to those potential buyers.
Anyone calling LeBron an “ok passer” pretty much loses all credibility for any discussion about anything, ever.
he's on ok passer. ok, i'm out.
All mentioned players are awesome with many different attributes. It is extremely difficult to compare individuals in different eras with different rules and rule changes throughout the history of the league. The expansion of the league (number of teams, how they travelled, how they shot the ball, how offenses were run, if they emphasized defense, etc.) all make a difference on stats. Heck, one can make an argument for the shoes they had to play in.
@olb31 said:
That's a lot of OK's for a great player..lol. Give him his due to play at this level for 18 seasons. It's remarkable that his body hasnt broken down.
I put all the goat's in one category (Lebron, Kobe, Magic, Bird, Wilt, Russell, Jordan, etc); then the greats (Barkley, Malone, Stockton, Nash, etc) and then the standard HOF's.
It's so hard to compare eras, the game is so different now.
It's hard to say (at least) 7 people are the greatest of all time.
This type of thread is very entertaining. LeBron is ok, Trout just hasn’t gotten it done. I’m a little disappointed Brady hasn’t made his way into the conversation. Fingers crossed.
Never visited Sport Talk, eh?
not on purpose.
You've missed out on a lot of epic trash talk and actual reasons I should've been banned. Good thing I'm much kinder and gentler now.
Agreed, this thread went sideways fast.
I want to agree with the OP but I am not sure the prices will come back down. I could foresee a small correction, maybe to squeeze out some of the weak money, but that will be it. It's a global market now, with a large group of educated investors out there that realized the Sports card market was undervalued. We all did, we had been saying it like broken records for years and years.
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I really thought this thread was going to be about Luka, Zion, and Ja. Not Lebron and Kobe.
If a complete collapse happened the above would be accurate but it's highly unlikely considering how much the market has changed. The number of collectors out there has absolutely exploded, it's world wide. The demand is still there. IMHO it does not mirror the junk wax era of the late 80's early 90's.
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Disgusting that the Lerner's, the Nat's owners let Harper and Rendon leave via free agency in back to back years. Rendon should have been resigned at all cost.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
100%. no offense to strasberg, but that money shoulda went to rendon. talk about a major backfire!
I think once people are able to go to games again, out to eat, on vacation, etc, there will be a little less money to devote to cards. That is my personal opinion.
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
Double post, don't mind me.
In the two years the NBA started to keep blocks as an official stat, a 35 and 36 year old Wilt Chamberlain averaged 8.8 blocks per game.
Hoops historians watching film and talking to players and refs figure he and Russell average between 10-12 a game for a good part of their careers and had higher season peaks. I've seen one say he counted at least 24 in one game for Wilt.
When Wilt got bored with 50 pts per game average or 25 rebounds, he switched and averaged 8 assists a game over a 2 year span, while keeping up 30+ points and 24+ rebounds....and who knows how many blocks....and women.
I guess I should have clarified that Lebron switched teams while still in his prime. Jordan switched teams in 1999, his 16th year in the NBA. And he did not seek out the best team.