1986 fleer Jordan dropping like a rock.
Goldenage
Posts: 3,278 ✭✭✭✭✭
Strong sales last month between 24-28k for a
PSA 8 Jordan rookie are now steady at 17k.
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Goldenage
Posts: 3,278 ✭✭✭✭✭
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For some reason, I am OK with this. Set new support level, let energy move onto other cards for a while.
The dramatic price appreciation was never sustainable. The demand is only there at a certain price point. Still, a great buy for the long haul.
I think we will be seeing this with a lot of cards and unopened material.
Increases for pre 84 baseball unopened may slow but I don’t see them going lower.
The two sales at Goldin for $738k each were puzzling. Card previously sold a year earlier for $39-45k, but with CoVid things have been crazy. Crazy enough to sell for $220k back in January and then $738k for two examples a few weeks ago.
It does raise a few questions. Why list two 10’s at the same time, and both went for the same exact price - chances of that happening. Especially when the high previously was $350k. Someone not into cards but throwing big money at the advice of some card “experts” would make sense. Why pay $738k when you can pay $575k? Their is a nicer one on eBay right now for that price, and does not have the snow or surface issues (fish eyes...) of the two that just sold. Both of these are not high end 10’s but someone paid record breaking $$ for them. Pulled all of the 8’s and 9’s up with them and people panicked and paid $30k+ for 8’s which are now in the $17k range in less than two weeks.
Great iconic card that everyone should own, but not at these prices. 8’s and 9’s are down 20-30% off highs in two weeks - same with the 88 Jordan dropping that much as well in two weeks. Be smart and do your homework first is my advice.
It's not just Jordan, check out 89 Score Barry Sanders in 10, it was $4k a couple weeks ago, now barely over $2k. It's starting to happen in a lot of segments. I'm hoping it's a consolidation like we saw last year, and not the beginning of the end.
With a 1980 baseball wax box selling for $11,700....it will go lower.
It was a $1200 card in December. so if they hold around $2k, the $4k will just be an overpay blip that some people will be regretting. It'll be interesting to see if it's a peak and a downturn vs. a standard correction on a continuing upward path.
Most of us saw this coming once in a while the sports card market does this. Then comes the fall for a lot of those cards not all but a lot. They should have purchased a T206 Wagner or Ruth rookie but hey not my problem.
I have yet to see any pullback with vintage unopened. In fact, it's the exact opposite. It's insane.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Market peaked second week of February. It was wild while it lasted.
Kiss me twice.....let's party.
so does that mean panic selling now? like everyone has been panic buying? And not just from people who recently bought but people like me who don't know whether to hold or sell? I have seen so many cards that I have sold in the last several years multiply 10 or 20 fold. Game changer money not $5-50 stuff. I am hoping it is just a sports lull. pre baseball/ post football slow down.
I'm hoping for standard correction, and that's what I honestly think too. Many cards have been undervalued too long. Some still are, a PSA 8 Jim Brown RC sold for $25k and change yesterday, still below its 2016 peak. I think on the aggregate, the market is about where it should be now. Some stuff is over what's healthy and some is under, but I like where we are overall.
Not sure it is over yet. The 1986 Rice PSA 9 rookie jumped up to $4k back in September, dropped back to $2k and now is selling for $5,000-$6,000. Could be consolidation before another surge or the first step back to normalcy.
Robb
High grade RC's of the greats will always be in demand, but recently it's got frankly stupid.
I have yet to see a pullback in hockey either. Lemieux and Gretzky are still very hot, and vintage never broke out, just remained steady to up.
easy to list a few cards that have taken a dive from extraordinary heights. so many that are continuing upward trends, lew alcindor, mantle, aaron, even the recent prizm base rookies that had fallen are picking back up steam. and like grote said, pretty much anything unopened is still climbing daily. but across all sectors from gpk to star wars, basketball to baseball everything is still way up. a lot of the cards listed were bound to fall. the investors today target something they feel is undervalued and buy it up until it isn't. then they move on to the next. again, if any of you guys haven't researched the discord groups, please do so. this is all they do and have pretty much done it to every card on this list. much like a swarm of locusts coming upon a crop.
i can assure you, this is no where near the end of this carnival ride. two weeks ago, i woulda said 50/50 chance.
i had derek grady fly out to pick up some stuff and was privy to some things i can not share publicly. if you need the money, cash out now. nothing wrong w taking a massive profit. if you can wait two more months, that's the right move.
put 2 and 2 together. look at that investor list w goldin. look at the private purchase of psa. these individuals making these moves are serious players w serious financial advisors behind them. there is zero way they haven't done massive amounts of expensive homework before diving in headfirst. the best thing i can relate this to is called "the starbucks effect".
to expect every card to maintain its current price point is just unrealistic. to exert that a few are falling signals the end is near is also unrealistic.
per the jordan, what if you sold a few weeks after last dance ended? kicking yourself now? yep.
adjust your price point/time scale to something beyond a week, two weeks, even a month. because anything under a solid month or two is on a flippers time scale. are you a flipper? if so, then i bet you're scared and live scared accordingly. you're also glued to each & every single, solitary sale, the first to panic sale & jump ship at a moments notice and most likely financing your flips are on credit you don't really have to begin with. and maybe that's your problem.
for everyone else, the writing is on the wall. this is by far the healthiest time in the hobby. perhaps ever. for those cashing out or seriously thinking of thinning the collection to the bare necessities, i don't blame you one single bit. there is no crystal ball, but i can most certainly say the sky is far from falling. barring, that is, until the physical sky starts falling. then we have much bigger problems then the jordan dropping a few points in a week.
and i shoulda prefaced all that w of course there is still manipulation out there too. that can happen on any card over a string of months or a single transaction. key is to realize that every record breaking sale is not legit. and in knowing that, a lot of the last sales that doubled the vcp average can not really be used as a barometer for the card falling by 50% the next week.
true price points are derived from a string of consistent sales. not one or two high priced anomalies. usually these outrageous outliers are used to push out inventory as "no brainer buy it nows" based off what the last one "sold for". and a lot of folks fall for it.