@Copyboy1 said:
I don't worry about the prices for the Jordan-level cards at all.
I worry about people paying thousands for Mahomes or Justin Herbert. Say Mahomes blows out a knee, misses a year, comes back but is never the same. He's not a HOFer at this point - just an exceptionally good QB for a short window. Would his card values hold up over the next 6, 7, 8 years? I highly doubt it.
The speculation group have always worked alongside investors of HoF-level talent. History is littered with "sure fire" prospects who flamed out (Dwight Gooden comes to mind immediately). These players were collected as were players like Mantle.
However, using Mahomes (super bowl winner) with Herbert (who is nothing more than a prospect who has done nothing) undermines your point. Herbert is by far a more speculation buy than Mahomes.
I mean, sure, Mahomes has done more than Herbert, so the latter is far more speculation. But people are currently paying big bucks for both and Mahomes has only been starting for 3 years.
In response to a different post, no. A QB who has only played 3 years shouldn't make the HOF.
They're paying big bucks for two polar opposite reasons which I detailed in my initial comment.
Mahomes is a proven commodity. Herbert is pure speculation.
Attempting to minimize what Mahomes has done because it's "just" been three years is curious.
The hobby has been exploding for months, but basketball is going through the roof right now. I have no idea how high things can go before they plateau and eventually go back down. No one saw this coming, and it's hard to tell when to cash out. Every time I think stuff can't go higher, it does.
I have been following the 2003 Topps Chrome Lebron James PSA 10 for about a year and it is now close to $40k which is insane. I got one for around $2k a little over a year ago. IT keeps getting harder and harder to not sell.
What I Collect:
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
@orioles93 said:
The hobby has been exploding for months, but basketball is going through the roof right now. I have no idea how high things can go before they plateau and eventually go back down. No one saw this coming, and it's hard to tell when to cash out. Every time I think stuff can't go higher, it does.
I have been following the 2003 Topps Chrome Lebron James PSA 10 for about a year and it is now close to $40k which is insane. I got one for around $2k a little over a year ago. IT keeps getting harder and harder to not sell.
a few kinda saw this coming w basketball. not to this extent, but i certainly diverted my attention towards it a while back. not claiming crisser status, but when you write down the pros vs cons on paper, it was pretty easy to see.
@orioles93 said:
The hobby has been exploding for months, but basketball is going through the roof right now. I have no idea how high things can go before they plateau and eventually go back down. No one saw this coming, and it's hard to tell when to cash out. Every time I think stuff can't go higher, it does.
I have been following the 2003 Topps Chrome Lebron James PSA 10 for about a year and it is now close to $40k which is insane. I got one for around $2k a little over a year ago. IT keeps getting harder and harder to not sell.
a few kinda saw this coming w basketball. not to this extent, but i certainly diverted my attention towards it a while back. not claiming crisser status, but when you write down the pros vs cons on paper, it was pretty easy to see.
I agree about seeing it coming with basketball. The signs were there with the popularity of the NBA growing, as well as the influence of social media in cards in general. There's no way anyone saw it getting this ridiculous though.
What I Collect:
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
@orioles93 said:
The hobby has been exploding for months, but basketball is going through the roof right now. I have no idea how high things can go before they plateau and eventually go back down. No one saw this coming, and it's hard to tell when to cash out. Every time I think stuff can't go higher, it does.
I have been following the 2003 Topps Chrome Lebron James PSA 10 for about a year and it is now close to $40k which is insane. I got one for around $2k a little over a year ago. IT keeps getting harder and harder to not sell.
a few kinda saw this coming w basketball. not to this extent, but i certainly diverted my attention towards it a while back. not claiming crisser status, but when you write down the pros vs cons on paper, it was pretty easy to see.
Seeing the prices explode on the Jordan made me look up the prices being realized for the stickers of this set. I never got mine graded because they weren't going for much money but most of these are going for bonkers money too.
But seeing what these are getting now makes me want to send mine in to get graded.
For everyone who is reluctant to sell - I'd take a huge profit ion a second on an item that is incredibly delicate and condition sensitive. Cardboard, even in a slab, is prone to too many environmental issues and bumps. Imagine if your roof leaked or basement flooded and your $50k card was involved. Slabs are supposed to be sealed, by why take a chance.
@BriantheTaxGuy said:
Seeing the prices explode on the Jordan made me look up the prices being realized for the stickers of this set. I never got mine graded because they weren't going for much money but most of these are going for bonkers money too.
But seeing what these are getting now makes me want to send mine in to get graded.
A few years ago I saw a 1986 Fleer Sticker BGS 5.5 on Ebay. I noticed it was nice and had a surface subgrade of 5. I went with a hunch that the surface was a 5 because of wax on the back. I bought it for less than $100, but I can't remember exactly how much. I busted it out, rubbed the wax off and sent it to PSA. It got a PSA 7. It is nicely centered.
For years this card has been worth about $200. During the Last Dance last summer I started seeing $500. Then $700. By the end of 2020 I started seeing it push towards $1,000. In one month a PSA 7 has went from $1,000 to $4,000+. I saw one sell for $6,000 last night centered like mine.
After letting my PSA 8 rookie go for $12,950 a couple of weeks ago, I'm hanging on to the sticker!
Good thing is the people wanting a PSA 10 are in luck that the prices have peaked and the only two gazillionaires out there both got one in the Goldin auction for around $1 million each right after BP. There is a 10 on eBay right now that was $750k and is now at $800k. Why are the underbidders not scooping that one up and saving $150-200k. 😉
A Jordan RC PSA 10 was sitting for $349,999.99 for over a month before the Goldin auction so not sure why one of the bidder didn't just buy that one before the auction. It got picked off either as the bidding was intensifying or shortly after. I don't think this is a supply and demand thing so much as a mania, where it stops nobody knows. Fun to be a part of but a retracement will occur at some point.
Very reminiscent of the dot.com stock boom and bust and then the housing crash (I was up close and personal with both of those). I am hearing all the same things I heard about internet stocks in 2000 and houses in 2005/2006 said about cards now. There were pretty big crashes for both, but people buying during those crashes made out pretty well in the long run. When we see a Time magazine cover article about sports cards, sell almost everything card you own and plan to buy back in 2-3 years.
Neither of your examples (dot com and housing) apply here.
The dot com bubble is nothing like this. They crashed not because of speculation but because they ultimately proved unprofitable and the venture capital companies which funded them wanted profits on their investments.
The housing crash occurred due to lenders and agents pushing bad loans onto unqualified borrowers. It was a pyramid scheme that came crashing down when these borrowers ultimately defaulted in such quantities the financial institutions which held them went bankrupt when the margin calls on these faulty investments came due.
There will be no "bust" when it comes to these cards being purchased. Will prices ultimately level off and back off of these historic highs? Possibly. Will there be a "crash" when they collapse in on themselves? Highly, highly unlikely.
The thing that prevents a card crash is a stable economy where people don’t have to sell their cards at much lower prices due to a stock market crash or some other economic stressor. Most sellers now are not dropping prices at all. They are raising them. Mickey Mantle rookies over the past 50 years have done nothing but go up and up. There was some leveling off, but certainly no crash whatsoever.
@KendallCat said:
Good thing is the people wanting a PSA 10 are in luck that the prices have peaked and the only two gazillionaires out there both got one in the Goldin auction for around $1 million each right after BP. There is a 10 on eBay right now that was $750k and is now at $800k. Why are the underbidders not scooping that one up and saving $150-200k. 😉
i get what you are saying and wouldn't trust anyone at goldin as far as i could kick them, but i think it was $738ish w/ the buyers premium. i could be dead wrong though, as again, i don't put too much stock in what they say or what they do.
5 mins of any shop at home episode says all ya need to know why.
BriantheTaxGuy, I believe they both apply since both were examples of irrational exuberance. Personally, I hope prices stay the same or go up (I have a pretty extensive card collection) I just don't think it will happen due to past history. Everyone during the dot.com boom was saying this time it will be different, the internet changes everything. Everyone during the housing boom was saying house prices across the country can't possibly all crash at the same time, everyone needs to live somewhere.
Card prices crashed after the buyer's group in 2015/2016 specifically for the cards that were run up by them. They eventually worked their way back up from the crash but if anyone had waited they could have purchased the cards at a significant discount from their peak prices.
I have no idea where the peak will be with cards but I am 100% confident there will be a crash (30-50% drop) in the vast majority of graded cards from that peak whenever it occurs. It could be next week, it could be in 12 months. Investors look at assets very differently from the way collectors look at their cards and when these investors start selling it will be a tsunami for some of these cards (especially modern). I can't tell you how many random YouTubers have posted their 50k or 100k card collection they are "investing" in.
It all depends what cards we’re talkin’ about, gents. We can’t predict the future, and we also can’t use a broad brush that paints both an 89 Donruss Griffey and a centered Goudey Ruth the same color.
Some cards may very well return to shore with receding waters— others, they may already be swept out to sea, bound for billionaire island.
@fergie23 said:
BriantheTaxGuy, I believe they both apply since both were examples of irrational exuberance. Personally, I hope prices stay the same or go up (I have a pretty extensive card collection) I just don't think it will happen due to past history. Everyone during the dot.com boom was saying this time it will be different, the internet changes everything. Everyone during the housing boom was saying house prices across the country can't possibly all crash at the same time, everyone needs to live somewhere.
Card prices crashed after the buyer's group in 2015/2016 specifically for the cards that were run up by them. They eventually worked their way back up from the crash but if anyone had waited they could have purchased the cards at a significant discount from their peak prices.
I have no idea where the peak will be with cards but I am 100% confident there will be a crash (30-50% drop) in the vast majority of graded cards from that peak whenever it occurs. It could be next week, it could be in 12 months. Investors look at assets very differently from the way collectors look at their cards and when these investors start selling it will be a tsunami for some of these cards (especially modern). I can't tell you how many random YouTubers have posted their 50k or 100k card collection they are "investing" in.
Robb
You have your mind made up. I have mine. There's no need to discuss this further. I am certain that there is no rational connection between those two examples and the current card boom. You feel there is.
Unless you're buying at these prices it really doesn't matter to you.
@fergie23 said:
BriantheTaxGuy, I believe they both apply since both were examples of irrational exuberance. Personally, I hope prices stay the same or go up (I have a pretty extensive card collection) I just don't think it will happen due to past history. Everyone during the dot.com boom was saying this time it will be different, the internet changes everything. Everyone during the housing boom was saying house prices across the country can't possibly all crash at the same time, everyone needs to live somewhere.
Card prices crashed after the buyer's group in 2015/2016 specifically for the cards that were run up by them. They eventually worked their way back up from the crash but if anyone had waited they could have purchased the cards at a significant discount from their peak prices.
I have no idea where the peak will be with cards but I am 100% confident there will be a crash (30-50% drop) in the vast majority of graded cards from that peak whenever it occurs. It could be next week, it could be in 12 months. Investors look at assets very differently from the way collectors look at their cards and when these investors start selling it will be a tsunami for some of these cards (especially modern). I can't tell you how many random YouTubers have posted their 50k or 100k card collection they are "investing" in.
Robb
Here’s a true story to put some perspective on what’s happening.
This is a true story that I have first hand knowledge of.
Hal Steinbrenner is pumping millions of dollars into the hobby.
The Arizona Diamondbacks owner bought the Wagner in PSA 8. Gretzky and McNall once owned it.
There is a guy in western PA that has cases of unopened 71-75 Topps baseball. Steinbrenner has offered him big prices for all of it but the guy won’t sell. He once sold him 40 boxes of 72s but he won’t sell him any more.
Guys like Steinbrenner and the Diamondbacks owner are flooding the market, not to run up prices like they run up stocks, but because they can afford to. Do not underestimate the current liquidity climate.
The transactions that are taking place are very real. The PSA 9s and 10s have overnight gone from Main Street USA, to Park Place, and now to your own private island. It’s like the beach front property boom in California in the 1970s. Lots of new millionaires turned those homes from 300k to 3 million overnight.
You’re seeing that with PSA 10 Jordan rookies. It’s nothing new under the sun for what the rich want to have.
i get what you are saying and wouldn't trust anyone at goldin as far as i could kick them, but i think it was $738ish w/ the buyers premium. i could be dead wrong though, as again, i don't put too much stock in what they say or what they do.
In his very first auction with his new company, Goldin had counterfeit jerseys in the auction. I told him so. He said he didn't care.
@KendallCat said:
Good thing is the people wanting a PSA 10 are in luck that the prices have peaked and the only two gazillionaires out there both got one in the Goldin auction for around $1 million each right after BP. There is a 10 on eBay right now that was $750k and is now at $800k. Why are the underbidders not scooping that one up and saving $150-200k. 😉
i get what you are saying and wouldn't trust anyone at goldin as far as i could kick them, but i think it was $738ish w/ the buyers premium. i could be dead wrong though, as again, i don't put too much stock in what they say or what they do.
5 mins of any shop at home episode says all ya need to know why.
Correct - they were $738k ish with hammer. As far as the AH in question I find it interesting that he is able to garner record sales for Mantle, Jordan, Trout but the big boys like Heritage and REA don’t sell for those amounts. Add in the hut huggers on sites like Blowout... who pump Goldin(probably employees or KG himself) amd there might be your answer.
There is a guy in western PA that has cases of unopened 71-75 Topps baseball. Steinbrenner has offered him big prices for all of it but the guy won’t sell. He once sold him 40 boxes of 72s but he won’t sell him any more.
I am located in Western PA, I'd like to meet this guy lol.
What I Collect:
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
@3stars said:
For everyone who is reluctant to sell - I'd take a huge profit ion a second on an item that is incredibly delicate and condition sensitive. Cardboard, even in a slab, is prone to too many environmental issues and bumps. Imagine if your roof leaked or basement flooded and your $50k card was involved. Slabs are supposed to be sealed, by why take a chance.
Didn't someone here do an immersion test on a low value slab? If I recall correctly, it wasn't pretty.
@BriantheTaxGuy said:
Even more impressive are the prices low-grade Jordans are commanding:
PSA4 - $7,350
PSA6- $13,000
PSA7- $15,000
The runs simply will not stop on this monster.
I own a PSA 4 and that’s quite a bit more than I expected they were likely going for. Hopefully the low/mid grade Star 101 starts picking up steam like the Fleer has.
The US is at 27.867 trillion in debt and just a minute ago I saw a headline about the 1.9 trillion relief package proposed and that with other government spending will push us past the 30 trillion mark. This is not a comment on if it is good or bad just an observation about where we sit monetarily.
I think a lot of people view the dollar as a declining asset and with interest rates on cash at 0.01 it directs a lot of funds toward other things. The three year hurdle rate is 0.03%.
Why not own some of the coolest sh++ in the world and have fun at the same time?
The bull market has been intact for 11 years and with this type of cash infusion prices had no where to go but way up.
Goldenage, it will be interesting to see how the Heritage OPC Gretzky PSA 9 RC does. I had an offer for $85,000 for mine but turned it down because I wanted to see how one did at auction given the current market.
@fergie23 said:
Goldenage, it will be interesting to see how the Heritage OPC Gretzky PSA 9 RC does. I had an offer for $85,000 for mine but turned it down because I wanted to see how one did at auction given the current market.
@fergie23 said:
Goldenage, it will be interesting to see how the Heritage OPC Gretzky PSA 9 RC does. I had an offer for $85,000 for mine but turned it down because I wanted to see how one did at auction given the current market.
In the Winter of 1991...McDonalds would give you a pack of basketball cards, produced for McDonalds by NBA Hoops, when you ordered a value meal. Back then...my diet wasn't very good, and I would eat value meals frequently. Anyway...I still have the cards in outstanding condition as I placed them in a plastic card box and never looked at them again thinking they were worthless. I probably have about 50 cards including 3 Michael Jordans.
Perusing the internet recently because of the Jordan mania to see if they had any value surprised me to see that the Jordan cards are selling for $250-300 in PSA-10 condition. Whoa Nellie...that's a lot of quarter pounders!
Now Monte can only get Jordan’s if they give them out at Ruth’s Chris or Montgomery Inn 🤣
Crazy thing about this market right now is between rich investors, sneakerheads or sneakerbois, shillers, market manipulators, shady online sellers, NBA players and musicians all getting into the market prices are through the roof. If you are sitting on stuff that is great and you can cash in, but when you want to buy again the price of admission went way up. You can sell for more but now you also have to pay more to collect. How many people or collectors does it drive out of the hobby? What about the next wave of collectors who are 10-17 who are priced out and never get in because they can’t afford it. What does it do to the overall health of the hobby long term. All interesting questions that need to get answered.
It also will impact sellers because collectors won’t sell now for fear of not getting the maximum amount for their cards thinking the longer I hold them the more they will go up. Could dry up the market making it harder to find items you want, and when you do find them they are going to cost 50-100% more than 6 months ago - or with Jordan stuff 6 days ago 😄
@Goldenage said:
In the year 2010 Mickey Mantle PSA 5 Topps rookies were selling for $15,000.
In the year 2020 PSA 5 Mantle Topps rookies are selling for $50-$60,000.
I will safely say that anything named Jordan or Gretzky in the year 2030 will be much higher as well.
Forget 2020. In 2021, the last two PSA 5's sold for 118 and 145K. Mantle cards have always risen through the years. That is nothing new, however, if you look at the last 10 years, you will see the prices have increased in a quicker amount of time than the previous 10 and the previous 10 before that and so on. In 10 years, I wouldn't be surprised if PSA 5's were selling in the 5-600k range by then.
@Goldenage said:
In the year 2010 Mickey Mantle PSA 5 Topps rookies were selling for $15,000.
In the year 2020 PSA 5 Mantle Topps rookies are selling for $50-$60,000.
I will safely say that anything named Jordan or Gretzky in the year 2030 will be much higher as well.
Forget 2020. In 2021, the last two PSA 5's sold for 118 and 145K. Mantle cards have always risen through the years. That is nothing new, however, if you look at the last 10 years, you will see the prices have increased in a quicker amount of time than the previous 10 and the previous 10 before that and so on. In 10 years, I wouldn't be surprised if PSA 5's were selling in the 5-600k range by then.
Don't forget about Mantles true RC, '51.
In 2010 I was chasing nicely centered PSA 4s for $2500. I kept missing out.
Finally got a SGC 5.5 in '14.
Currently one of the most underrated/undervalued pieces of cardboard
@KendallCat said:
Now Monte can only get Jordan’s if they give them out at Ruth’s Chris or Montgomery Inn 🤣
. How many people or collectors does it drive out of the hobby? What about the next wave of collectors who are 10-17 who are priced out and never get in because they can’t afford it. What does it do to the overall health of the hobby long term. All interesting questions that need to get answered.
i can't have a 52 mantle 10. certainly couldn't when i was 10 - 17. heck, i couldn't have any real playing year card at that age. i'm still here. guess what i am saying is that a true collector is a collector. wish lists and prices aren't gonna drive them away. in fact, i would say the wish and the "one day" dream encourages and drives a true collector, not deter.
@KendallCat said:
Now Monte can only get Jordan’s if they give them out at Ruth’s Chris or Montgomery Inn 🤣
Crazy thing about this market right now is between rich investors, sneakerheads or sneakerbois, shillers, market manipulators, shady online sellers, NBA players and musicians all getting into the market prices are through the roof. If you are sitting on stuff that is great and you can cash in, but when you want to buy again the price of admission went way up. You can sell for more but now you also have to pay more to collect. How many people or collectors does it drive out of the hobby? What about the next wave of collectors who are 10-17 who are priced out and never get in because they can’t afford it. What does it do to the overall health of the hobby long term. All interesting questions that need to get answered.
It also will impact sellers because collectors won’t sell now for fear of not getting the maximum amount for their cards thinking the longer I hold them the more they will go up. Could dry up the market making it harder to find items you want, and when you do find them they are going to cost 50-100% more than 6 months ago - or with Jordan stuff 6 days ago 😄
The idea that it's "skillets, market manipulators, shady online sellers" representing even a tiny fraction of the explosion in popularity is foolish to believe.
Kids were never priced into this segment of the hobby and there's nothing but options for them to collect now. That hasn't changed.
@Goldenage said:
In the year 2010 Mickey Mantle PSA 5 Topps rookies were selling for $15,000.
In the year 2020 PSA 5 Mantle Topps rookies are selling for $50-$60,000.
I will safely say that anything named Jordan or Gretzky in the year 2030 will be much higher as well.
Forget 2020. In 2021, the last two PSA 5's sold for 118 and 145K. Mantle cards have always risen through the years. That is nothing new, however, if you look at the last 10 years, you will see the prices have increased in a quicker amount of time than the previous 10 and the previous 10 before that and so on. In 10 years, I wouldn't be surprised if PSA 5's were selling in the 5-600k range by then.
Don't forget about Mantles true RC, '51.
In 2010 I was chasing nicely centered PSA 4s for $2500. I kept missing out.
Finally got a SGC 5.5 in '14.
Currently one of the most underrated/undervalued pieces of cardboard
@Goldenage said:
In the year 2010 Mickey Mantle PSA 5 Topps rookies were selling for $15,000.
In the year 2020 PSA 5 Mantle Topps rookies are selling for $50-$60,000.
I will safely say that anything named Jordan or Gretzky in the year 2030 will be much higher as well.
Forget 2020. In 2021, the last two PSA 5's sold for 118 and 145K. Mantle cards have always risen through the years. That is nothing new, however, if you look at the last 10 years, you will see the prices have increased in a quicker amount of time than the previous 10 and the previous 10 before that and so on. In 10 years, I wouldn't be surprised if PSA 5's were selling in the 5-600k range by then.
Don't forget about Mantles true RC, '51.
In 2010 I was chasing nicely centered PSA 4s for $2500. I kept missing out.
Finally got a SGC 5.5 in '14.
Currently one of the most underrated/undervalued pieces of cardboard
is there a 51 mantle sitting at a million that's being auctioned off right now? please tell me it's a psa 2! 😉
Comments
Check out the 86 Fleer Jordan sticker in PSA 10 on eBay now.
I'm surprised the raw 1987-88 Fleer sets with stickers are still "only" selling in the $1,000-$1,400 range.
They're paying big bucks for two polar opposite reasons which I detailed in my initial comment.
Mahomes is a proven commodity. Herbert is pure speculation.
Attempting to minimize what Mahomes has done because it's "just" been three years is curious.
I'm not minimizing what Mahomes has done. I'm saying doing it for 3 years isn't enough to get into the HOF.
I mean, Jim Plunkett has two rings and two Super Bowl MVPs. But the rest of his career didn't hold up enough to make him HOF material.
The hobby has been exploding for months, but basketball is going through the roof right now. I have no idea how high things can go before they plateau and eventually go back down. No one saw this coming, and it's hard to tell when to cash out. Every time I think stuff can't go higher, it does.
I have been following the 2003 Topps Chrome Lebron James PSA 10 for about a year and it is now close to $40k which is insane. I got one for around $2k a little over a year ago. IT keeps getting harder and harder to not sell.
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
a few kinda saw this coming w basketball. not to this extent, but i certainly diverted my attention towards it a while back. not claiming crisser status, but when you write down the pros vs cons on paper, it was pretty easy to see.
Not basketball related. Troy Aikman 89 Score & 89 Topps Traded in PSA 10 seem to have blasted off again.
I agree about seeing it coming with basketball. The signs were there with the popularity of the NBA growing, as well as the influence of social media in cards in general. There's no way anyone saw it getting this ridiculous though.
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
The Crisser comment is epic!!!
What ever happened to Jenny?
Seeing the prices explode on the Jordan made me look up the prices being realized for the stickers of this set. I never got mine graded because they weren't going for much money but most of these are going for bonkers money too.
But seeing what these are getting now makes me want to send mine in to get graded.
For everyone who is reluctant to sell - I'd take a huge profit ion a second on an item that is incredibly delicate and condition sensitive. Cardboard, even in a slab, is prone to too many environmental issues and bumps. Imagine if your roof leaked or basement flooded and your $50k card was involved. Slabs are supposed to be sealed, by why take a chance.
A few years ago I saw a 1986 Fleer Sticker BGS 5.5 on Ebay. I noticed it was nice and had a surface subgrade of 5. I went with a hunch that the surface was a 5 because of wax on the back. I bought it for less than $100, but I can't remember exactly how much. I busted it out, rubbed the wax off and sent it to PSA. It got a PSA 7. It is nicely centered.
For years this card has been worth about $200. During the Last Dance last summer I started seeing $500. Then $700. By the end of 2020 I started seeing it push towards $1,000. In one month a PSA 7 has went from $1,000 to $4,000+. I saw one sell for $6,000 last night centered like mine.
After letting my PSA 8 rookie go for $12,950 a couple of weeks ago, I'm hanging on to the sticker!
Shane
Good thing is the people wanting a PSA 10 are in luck that the prices have peaked and the only two gazillionaires out there both got one in the Goldin auction for around $1 million each right after BP. There is a 10 on eBay right now that was $750k and is now at $800k. Why are the underbidders not scooping that one up and saving $150-200k. 😉
A Jordan RC PSA 10 was sitting for $349,999.99 for over a month before the Goldin auction so not sure why one of the bidder didn't just buy that one before the auction. It got picked off either as the bidding was intensifying or shortly after. I don't think this is a supply and demand thing so much as a mania, where it stops nobody knows. Fun to be a part of but a retracement will occur at some point.
Very reminiscent of the dot.com stock boom and bust and then the housing crash (I was up close and personal with both of those). I am hearing all the same things I heard about internet stocks in 2000 and houses in 2005/2006 said about cards now. There were pretty big crashes for both, but people buying during those crashes made out pretty well in the long run. When we see a Time magazine cover article about sports cards, sell almost everything card you own and plan to buy back in 2-3 years.
Robb
Neither of your examples (dot com and housing) apply here.
The dot com bubble is nothing like this. They crashed not because of speculation but because they ultimately proved unprofitable and the venture capital companies which funded them wanted profits on their investments.
The housing crash occurred due to lenders and agents pushing bad loans onto unqualified borrowers. It was a pyramid scheme that came crashing down when these borrowers ultimately defaulted in such quantities the financial institutions which held them went bankrupt when the margin calls on these faulty investments came due.
There will be no "bust" when it comes to these cards being purchased. Will prices ultimately level off and back off of these historic highs? Possibly. Will there be a "crash" when they collapse in on themselves? Highly, highly unlikely.
The thing that prevents a card crash is a stable economy where people don’t have to sell their cards at much lower prices due to a stock market crash or some other economic stressor. Most sellers now are not dropping prices at all. They are raising them. Mickey Mantle rookies over the past 50 years have done nothing but go up and up. There was some leveling off, but certainly no crash whatsoever.
i get what you are saying and wouldn't trust anyone at goldin as far as i could kick them, but i think it was $738ish w/ the buyers premium. i could be dead wrong though, as again, i don't put too much stock in what they say or what they do.
5 mins of any shop at home episode says all ya need to know why.
BriantheTaxGuy, I believe they both apply since both were examples of irrational exuberance. Personally, I hope prices stay the same or go up (I have a pretty extensive card collection) I just don't think it will happen due to past history. Everyone during the dot.com boom was saying this time it will be different, the internet changes everything. Everyone during the housing boom was saying house prices across the country can't possibly all crash at the same time, everyone needs to live somewhere.
Card prices crashed after the buyer's group in 2015/2016 specifically for the cards that were run up by them. They eventually worked their way back up from the crash but if anyone had waited they could have purchased the cards at a significant discount from their peak prices.
I have no idea where the peak will be with cards but I am 100% confident there will be a crash (30-50% drop) in the vast majority of graded cards from that peak whenever it occurs. It could be next week, it could be in 12 months. Investors look at assets very differently from the way collectors look at their cards and when these investors start selling it will be a tsunami for some of these cards (especially modern). I can't tell you how many random YouTubers have posted their 50k or 100k card collection they are "investing" in.
Robb
It all depends what cards we’re talkin’ about, gents. We can’t predict the future, and we also can’t use a broad brush that paints both an 89 Donruss Griffey and a centered Goudey Ruth the same color.
Some cards may very well return to shore with receding waters— others, they may already be swept out to sea, bound for billionaire island.
Jordan and Mantle vs Jeremy Lin and Kevin Maas. Buy what you like......
You have your mind made up. I have mine. There's no need to discuss this further. I am certain that there is no rational connection between those two examples and the current card boom. You feel there is.
Unless you're buying at these prices it really doesn't matter to you.
Here’s a true story to put some perspective on what’s happening.
This is a true story that I have first hand knowledge of.
Hal Steinbrenner is pumping millions of dollars into the hobby.
The Arizona Diamondbacks owner bought the Wagner in PSA 8. Gretzky and McNall once owned it.
There is a guy in western PA that has cases of unopened 71-75 Topps baseball. Steinbrenner has offered him big prices for all of it but the guy won’t sell. He once sold him 40 boxes of 72s but he won’t sell him any more.
Guys like Steinbrenner and the Diamondbacks owner are flooding the market, not to run up prices like they run up stocks, but because they can afford to. Do not underestimate the current liquidity climate.
The transactions that are taking place are very real. The PSA 9s and 10s have overnight gone from Main Street USA, to Park Place, and now to your own private island. It’s like the beach front property boom in California in the 1970s. Lots of new millionaires turned those homes from 300k to 3 million overnight.
You’re seeing that with PSA 10 Jordan rookies. It’s nothing new under the sun for what the rich want to have.
Goldenage:
You got it exactly right. The idea some are floating that it's stimulus money or PPP or any of a multitude of reasons are flat out wrong.
Whats happened is a large group of serious investors, big and small, have descended on collectible market and are driving the huge gains.
It's not just sports cards-pokemon, magic the gathering, etc are all seeing HUGE spikes in demand and driving up prices.
It's going anywhere anytime soon.
In his very first auction with his new company, Goldin had counterfeit jerseys in the auction. I told him so. He said he didn't care.
Correct - they were $738k ish with hammer. As far as the AH in question I find it interesting that he is able to garner record sales for Mantle, Jordan, Trout but the big boys like Heritage and REA don’t sell for those amounts. Add in the hut huggers on sites like Blowout... who pump Goldin(probably employees or KG himself) amd there might be your answer.
I am located in Western PA, I'd like to meet this guy lol.
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
Didn't someone here do an immersion test on a low value slab? If I recall correctly, it wasn't pretty.
An 86 Fleer PSA 9 Jordan auction just ended at just under $78k and a PSA 8 at just under $35k. Both were from the PWCC Vault.
Eric
Erikthredd’s MJ Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/publishedset/395035
Erikthredd’s Nike Air Jordan Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/basketball/key-card-sets/nike-poster-cards-michael-jordan-1985-1992/alltimeset/408486
Even more impressive are the prices low-grade Jordans are commanding:
PSA4 - $7,350
PSA6- $13,000
PSA7- $15,000
The runs simply will not stop on this monster.
I own a PSA 4 and that’s quite a bit more than I expected they were likely going for. Hopefully the low/mid grade Star 101 starts picking up steam like the Fleer has.
Eric
Erikthredd’s MJ Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/publishedset/395035
Erikthredd’s Nike Air Jordan Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/basketball/key-card-sets/nike-poster-cards-michael-jordan-1985-1992/alltimeset/408486
Gretzky opc are running the same as Jordan.
The US is at 27.867 trillion in debt and just a minute ago I saw a headline about the 1.9 trillion relief package proposed and that with other government spending will push us past the 30 trillion mark. This is not a comment on if it is good or bad just an observation about where we sit monetarily.
I think a lot of people view the dollar as a declining asset and with interest rates on cash at 0.01 it directs a lot of funds toward other things. The three year hurdle rate is 0.03%.
Why not own some of the coolest sh++ in the world and have fun at the same time?
The bull market has been intact for 11 years and with this type of cash infusion prices had no where to go but way up.
Makes sense cards are going up
Goldenage, it will be interesting to see how the Heritage OPC Gretzky PSA 9 RC does. I had an offer for $85,000 for mine but turned it down because I wanted to see how one did at auction given the current market.
https://sports.ha.com/itm/hockey-cards/singles-1970-now-/1979-o-pee-chee-wayne-gretzky-rookie-18-psa-mint-9/a/50038-80065.s?ic16=ViewItem-BrowseTabs-Auction-Open-ThisAuction-120115
Robb
OPC Gretzky PSA 9 catches the 1952 PSA 8 Mantle in our lifetime.
It’s a $500,000 card in 10-20 years.
Given current price acceleration, FIFY
Someone JUST sold this on Etsy for $1600. Looks legit. Number matches up. If so... whoops!
$2350 for a PSA 9 of MJ’s third year 1988 Fleer #120 All Star has to be a new high.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/Michael-Jordan-1988-Fleer-All-Star-120-PSA-9-Mint-HOF-Bulls-Sharp-Edges-/303868339953?hash=item46bff6e6f1:g:LtAAAOSwDIpgF1r0&nma=true&si=3GnjGMlRlvK8tjkmhNymhnKwzEY%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
Eric
Erikthredd’s MJ Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/publishedset/395035
Erikthredd’s Nike Air Jordan Collection: https://www.psacard.com/psasetregistry/basketball/key-card-sets/nike-poster-cards-michael-jordan-1985-1992/alltimeset/408486
In the Winter of 1991...McDonalds would give you a pack of basketball cards, produced for McDonalds by NBA Hoops, when you ordered a value meal. Back then...my diet wasn't very good, and I would eat value meals frequently. Anyway...I still have the cards in outstanding condition as I placed them in a plastic card box and never looked at them again thinking they were worthless. I probably have about 50 cards including 3 Michael Jordans.
Perusing the internet recently because of the Jordan mania to see if they had any value surprised me to see that the Jordan cards are selling for $250-300 in PSA-10 condition. Whoa Nellie...that's a lot of quarter pounders!
Now Monte can only get Jordan’s if they give them out at Ruth’s Chris or Montgomery Inn 🤣
Crazy thing about this market right now is between rich investors, sneakerheads or sneakerbois, shillers, market manipulators, shady online sellers, NBA players and musicians all getting into the market prices are through the roof. If you are sitting on stuff that is great and you can cash in, but when you want to buy again the price of admission went way up. You can sell for more but now you also have to pay more to collect. How many people or collectors does it drive out of the hobby? What about the next wave of collectors who are 10-17 who are priced out and never get in because they can’t afford it. What does it do to the overall health of the hobby long term. All interesting questions that need to get answered.
It also will impact sellers because collectors won’t sell now for fear of not getting the maximum amount for their cards thinking the longer I hold them the more they will go up. Could dry up the market making it harder to find items you want, and when you do find them they are going to cost 50-100% more than 6 months ago - or with Jordan stuff 6 days ago 😄
In the year 2010 Mickey Mantle PSA 5 Topps rookies were selling for $15,000.
In the year 2020 PSA 5 Mantle Topps rookies are selling for $50-$60,000.
I will safely say that anything named Jordan or Gretzky in the year 2030 will be much higher as well.
Forget 2020. In 2021, the last two PSA 5's sold for 118 and 145K. Mantle cards have always risen through the years. That is nothing new, however, if you look at the last 10 years, you will see the prices have increased in a quicker amount of time than the previous 10 and the previous 10 before that and so on. In 10 years, I wouldn't be surprised if PSA 5's were selling in the 5-600k range by then.
Don't forget about Mantles true RC, '51.
In 2010 I was chasing nicely centered PSA 4s for $2500. I kept missing out.
Finally got a SGC 5.5 in '14.
Currently one of the most underrated/undervalued pieces of cardboard
i can't have a 52 mantle 10. certainly couldn't when i was 10 - 17. heck, i couldn't have any real playing year card at that age. i'm still here. guess what i am saying is that a true collector is a collector. wish lists and prices aren't gonna drive them away. in fact, i would say the wish and the "one day" dream encourages and drives a true collector, not deter.
The idea that it's "skillets, market manipulators, shady online sellers" representing even a tiny fraction of the explosion in popularity is foolish to believe.
Kids were never priced into this segment of the hobby and there's nothing but options for them to collect now. That hasn't changed.
If I get skillets ordering from me instead of me ordering skillets, I know the world is upside down.
googling skillets now...
eta: nothing under "skillet" on urban dictionary although i do feel as if i've been skilled up now. 😉
+++ a million on 51 Bowman Mantle Plagued with print, focus and centering. Anything with nice eye appeal......
is there a 51 mantle sitting at a million that's being auctioned off right now? please tell me it's a psa 2! 😉