Pricing Bubble, or not?
clayshooter22
Posts: 727 ✭✭✭
This is a carryover from another thread...
The concept of a bubble was brought up and I thought it would be fun to discuss what the rest of you think.
I do think, for the cards I follow, that the long term price support is not as high as recent sales, by maybe 1.5-4x.
There has been chatter about alternative investment and specifically fund(s) created to capture investment potential in sports cards.
I'm not involved but understand completely how these funds would work. The issues that lead me to believe that there was a bubble and it is over are as follows,
One, in order to facilitate the fund flows, both in and out, a fund manager would need to pick cards that are traded pretty regularly. This means that a fund could invest some principle into 1/1 and other super high dollar cards but there would have to be enough, say 25%, invested in cards that could be traded daily or weekly to provide the fund the ability to cash flow without the investment team taking on too much market risk. Think key rookies in something like 85 Topps Baseball graded 10. Clemens and Puckett 10s trade weekly and sometimes daily.
Two, by the time word gets out about an alternative investment fund, you can be sure the fund has invested the vast majority of it's initial principle. It would be too expensive to tell everyone that you have a bottomless checkbook and THEN go out and buy these cards. Now, as word gets out...prices have dropped on the card that I follow, by about 20% and trending down over the last month.
Those are my first thoughts.
Mike
Kirby Puckett Master Set
Comments
There is never a pricing bubble according to the Council of Card Economists on this board. Even when a group of people artificially inflate a market, or “new” money does the same, this is all natural appreciation according to the sages here.
There is no bubble!!! ...........But , does anyone want to bid on my biggest modern shiny cards currently with PWCC??
Ditto!
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
I don't know if it's a "bubble", but I do know there is something insanely wrong when Michael Jordan 1986 Fleers are going for over $200K each, like they are now!!!!!
Then you add all the cards that are selling for a million dollars or more each, and something is definitely not right.
Steve
Now this post will come to life. TheCrisser has entered the arena. Ya got a way with words I have to admit
can someone point out when did this latest bubble talk start? has to be going on over a year now, right? and this thru covid which a lot thought would pop it? then what happened? things got crissier, i mean crazier.
but, i'm a realist. eventually it will pop a few years from now.
then a few folks can finally proclaim "i told ya so".
rinse, wash, repeat.
I point back to the 2016 so-called Buyer's Group. "Itsa bubble, itsa bubble!" I'll take 2016 prices back any day of the week
Is a bubble, not a bubble, it's a breakout or not. I'm happy to see the capitalists take advantage of the mania while they can.
Has brought a lot of attention to the hobby. Not sure if that's good or bad.
i was about to opine on said pricing bubble, but then i saw how hot crisser looks in that deck chair and lost my train of thought
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
Remember that time four years ago when he was kinda right for about a month, but everyone else was saying the same thing?
My biggest regrets have been on items that I have sold, rather than items that I have bought. This has been more acute for GOATs and that level just below. I think vintage is a very good store of value, at a minimum, and a I am not at all concerned about the volatility that exists over time for vintage.
I would not consider MJ cards as vintage, but I think over time, sellers may regret not holding their copies longer.
I'm of the opinion that the stuff from the last couple years will fall hard within a couple years...once all of the Zion, Ja, Luka, etc cards that are at PSA in the backlog get graded and added to the pop report, there are going to be 30k+ PSA 10s of Prizm of each of these guys...highly doubt there will be the kind of demand it will take to keep those card prices anywhere close to where they currently are...
broken record. 30k rookies too much for world wide sport and new entrants everyday? taking that bet. where do i sign up?
I started a thread about the change in the hobby that was coming when Collectable launched. Anyone who read it should have seen this most recent wave coming. There is just too much money coming in to the hobby from non natural buyers for prices not to go up. Earlier today they sold a SP Tom Brady PSA 10 out in like 15 minutes. This kind of activity is changing the landscape dramatically and while longer term it may be a problem in the near term it is only throwing gas on a blazing fire.
For years I made the mistake of fighting the tape in the stock market. Always trying to go short and make money on stocks that had run up to levels that were unsustainable. What happens is in most cases those same stocks pull back briefly and then make an even greater move higher. Those calling for a bursting of the bubble are fighting the tape. When the Last Dance came out and the Jordan frenzy was in full tilt we discussed his 86 Fleer and cards in general on here and there was one board member who had every reason as to why it would have a huge correction and that was at 56k.
This bull is running and like all markets there will be a top but it isn’t today. When calling the stock market there are phases of a bull market. All agree they end in euphoria. There isn’t a day that goes by that someone isn’t predicting the collapse. Anyone who has predicted the bubble bursting lost all their credibility when a Jordan tripled from the so called top. It could drop in half and still be 100% higher. It could fall 75% and get back to the top. We are in a monster bull market and cards just continue to make record highs. It’s not over and these record prices just keep attracting fresh dollars.
Good post dpeck. I think all collectors are searching for answers.
When do you pull the trigger? Pay the current price or wait it out?
I learned a long time ago...when you see it, you buy it NOW or go for the no doubt about it win. You might not have the same chance.
Show your receipts of PSA 10 base Luka Prizms that you are buying at the current $1800 prices...or PSA 10 base Zion Prizms for $750. I'm not anti sports cards continuing to do well...just these over-produced base Prizms of the last couple years
this has zero basis for your argument. your argument is that these cards won't hold a candle in a couple of years to what they are selling for now, correct?
avg prices right now:
luka 10s at $1650
zion 10s at $725
check back in 12/18/22:
ETA: but for giggles, please comp us the prices these over produced cards are going to be worth in two years. no broad ranges, exact hard dollar figures please...
I think you have to consider pulling the trigger now. I will continue to sell roughly 75% of my card and autograph collection over the next year. I started collecting as a kid in the early 80's and It doesn't make me happy but I cannot resist the record prices. If selling a portion of my collection now allows me to buy an almost brand new bass boat instead of continuing to fix my POS 25 year old bass boat I think I can live with that.> @blurryface said:
I am interested to see how this plays out. I have two nice Luka's currently up for auction because I needed to take the gains/profits for other reasons.....dam HVAC unit. I was also worried what could happen if he got injured. I mention this because I had a significant amount of money invested in Derrick Rose Rookies.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
same boat kinda. ac's ok, but it's hard to go broke taking insane profits. anything could happen from injury to something not even thought about like covid. in the mean time, most everything can go, cash in, regroup, then ante back in...safely.
I will try to regroup but it's been tough finding boxes, packs, etc... at Walmart, Target, etc... and everything online has exploded. I really like opening packs, I love the thrill.
BTW Even though I plan on selling off roughly 75% of my collection over the next year I will still keep some of my favorites like my Jim Brown rookie, etc...
Good luck to you Blurry.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
not sure why my comment disappeared. does that from time to time and then all the deleted ones will reappear all at once on some random day.
glad you caught the quote though so i wouldn't have to retype all of that! so thank you.
and best of luck to you too.
@cakes Enjoy the boat!!!
Thanks Dpeck. I try not to have to many regrets but I really do regret not getting into the wrestling cards 10 years ago, especially Andre and Hulk when you and King did. I am priced out now. In the old value threads you both championed how undervalued the entire genre was.
Regardless nothing can replace seeing some great matches as a kid in the early 80's. I vividly remember seeing Snuka vs Backlund in the steel cage at the Capitol Center in Md. Snuka gave him the superfly from the top rope and then went for it from the top of the cage only to have Backlund raise his knees at just the right time. There was no faking the pain he was in, he roll around in pain and then Backlund pinned him. On another note 20 years latter my buddy Chucky P. who weighed 500 lbs was talking crap to Hogan at Starcade and Hogan got right in his face and told him to sit his fat ass down. RIP Chucky P., weighing 500 finally took it's toll on him and he passed away 5 years ago. I still miss him, was one of my best friends.
Side note, I actually stopped watching/loving wrestling after Hogan beat Andre at wrestlemania, it pissed me off! But I got to see a great event years later at the Patriot Center when Hogan turned bad during his NWO time. Him and his crew beat the hell out of somebody at the end and the crowd rained down beer, drinks, etc... and I remember a huge cup of ice splashing all over Hogan. It was epic. what memories.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Cakes it is funny that you talk about selling off some of your collection to buy a bass boat. I have been thinking of doing the same thing myself over the last week. If you decide to buy one, enjoy it. One thing this forum has taught me is to respect all different types of collectors and the different knowledge that everyone brings. Wrestling, modern, vintage, unopened, baseball, football, basketball, non sportscards, autos- there are so many different ways to collect. Whether there is a bubble or not, who knows. I just wish I would have been more of a forward thinker with the new stuff as my collection is mostly vintage.
Thanks Trapper. I am just sick of constantly fixing my boat and trailer. I like to fish the Lower Potomac river which is very wide, and it can get really choppy and dangerous so I have to be careful getting stuck out there. I keep a full compliment of tools and tape, etc... but it's been wearing on my mind lately. I had a chance 2 or 3 years ago to buy a friends 2010 Ranger for a great price and passed................doh!
I hear you about the modern, shiny stuff, I really don't have much, and most that I do have has been pulled from opening packs I have bought from Walmart the last 5 or 6 years. I do think the modern stuff is slowly pulling up the vintage market. The problem I have with most of my PC of vintage is it's just not the high grade stuff that is hauling in moon money. Good luck to you in 2021!
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
I was on the Stairmaster at the gym and TMZ Sports was on. They covered the OPC Wayne Gretzky PSA 10 and the Stephan Curry that went for over 600k.
Jordan 9 hammered on PWCC at 30k last night......amazing.
208K for the Jordan 10.
Where will this end up in a year, 2 years?
zion base approaching $1k. 25% increase this week. after christmas night prolly $1200.
imagining a lot of new eyes are going to be watching.