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Bubble Bursting?
Ahmanfan
Posts: 4,353 ✭✭✭✭
Has anyone else noticed the bubble deflating over the last week in their respective niches?
I follow a fairly narrow niche but look at these realized price trends:
Date 1961 Wilt PSA 5
Aug 8 $5,500
Aug 28 $10,000 (est)
Sept 6 $10,000
Sept 20 $6,152
1961 Wilt PSA 6
July 22 $9,300
Aug 9 $12,000
Aug 25 $16,500
Sept 20 $9,000
1972 Erving PSA 6
Aug 17 $1,700
Aug 21 $1,900
Aug 31 $2,300
Sept 11 $1,267
Sept 15 $1,600
Sept 20 $1,175
Sept 20 $809
Sept 20 $888
Collecting
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
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While it looks like a trend, need to be careful due to a small sample size and differentiations within a grade. PWCC slapping an “E” or “A” (or whatever the denotation of the week might be) can lead to an outlier within the realizations of a given grade. As could a perfectly centered example, or a generous grade on the other side.
This is in my niche and was not surprised to see a healthy new record for it.
Also these prices:
Instagram: mattyc_collection
More then that is the price manipulation. The Jordan PSA 10 went on a crazy run, obviously being manipulated. Yes demand was way up but the pattern was familiar - BIN gets hit for new record price, 3 cards hit PWCC a few weeks later, even further highs are reached, rinse and repeat.
Prices have now started to fall in auction and voila, all of a sudden a BIN gets hit for near record prices. Or a new high at a questionable auction house like Goldin occurs.
It is so obvious what is going on. The next 12 months are going to interesting.
I've noticed a sort of "leveling off" -- where prices are no longer sky-rocketing on a daily basis.
Some of the cards / products I follow
-1993 SP Sealed Baseball Box -- reached $5,500 but last few were just under $5,000
-1980 Topps Bird / Erving / Johnson Rookie card - PSA 7's were selling regularly over $3K, and recently a few sold in the lower $2K Range (although, there are some 7's better than others -- the worst ones are going for alot less). PSA 9's were solidly over $20K, but recently results are in the $16K - $20K range -- exception for the stunning copies that still demand a premium
-2003 UD Lebron James - Exclusives and MVP PSA 10's -- just a leveling off -- but if he wins another championship, could start rising again...
thanks all. I think the bull run is slowing in most segments (not all). Particularly basketball which took off like a rocket.
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
"There will be ebbs and flows, deals good and bad. Prices that shock and awe". From a personal value collection standpoint I'm a little disappointed Lenny Moore and Lance Alworth rookies didn't catch fire a little.
Was hoping to see a drop with PSA 10 88 fleer Kenny Williams or 95 sp Rasheed Wallace rookies but both still went for near record highs yesterday. Both over $70. Could have had either for around 20 or 30 3 months ago. I know, not quite a 61 wilt or 72 dr j but even the small fries are still feeling the boom.
I'd pick the sheed up, nice card under $100.
HOF SIGNED FOOTBALL RCS
I got the Stackhouse for about 25 bucks. Need to reunite the Tar Heel duo.
I'd say the run on vintage basketball is over. I sold into it and only bought one card into it, a low grade RC to replace a high grade one I sold off. By the end of the year it will be time to go Stilt shopping!
I too follow a small narrow group for my personal collection. Many of these that I collect have also seen giant swings, but having kept up with the prices and researched a lot of the outliers on pricing can tell you that price manipulation on ebay is VERY real on cards with small sample sizes.
I had one card in particular that generally sold in the $30-$40 range, all of a sudden sell in the $80 range. One particular card was PSA graded and I was able to track the sale of this ONE card four times in a month at the inflated price, meanwhile the same card, same grade was available at $40 and it never sold, but somehow this one particular graded card sold four times??? One of the sales occured two days after the other, which would be impossible since the shipping time would be two days minimum.
Not saying every price increase is due to manipulation, but it is highly possible on some of them
Certainly no bubble bursting when it comes to vintage unopened.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
We knew the prices would come down on many cards, since the extra $600 a week unemployment benefits came to a sudden halt lol.
Terry Bradshaw was AMAZING!!
Ignore list -Basebal21
wouldnt say the bubble is bursting at all. depending on what specific segment you are referring, it's either moved to football, it's off season, still going strong or was bound to come down yet still way above it was this time last year. i do think that certain economic dilemmas may cause a dip in certain segments but bursting? not yet, imo.
I dont know that i would say the bubble is bursting. Possibly the crazy upswings have slowed down and we have a new normal for many cards.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
None of the stuff I collect EVER catches fire...it's like I collect the ONE guy nobody likes, Lol. I'm just bummed I "wasted my money" buying 1950's & 1960's cards. I figured I had a lifetime to pick up my Magic Johnson cards...woops! Now I'll never have them. The card I wanted (1981) went from $400 to $8,000 in 2 years it seemed. The good news is I can still buy Ernie Banks, Joe Namath & Terry Bradshaw all day long, Lol.
"You've gotta be a man to play this game...but you'd better have a lot of little boy in you, too"--Roy Campanella
Magic still has a lot of awesome star company cards that haven’t taken off like the 81 topps or 86 fleer. They are higher than in April but not as big a difference as the 81 topps
The Dr. J RC in an 8 has tumbled from around $10,000 to $3,500-$4,000. This one had a best offer accepted for $3500 last Friday.
264889588767
Prices have now started to fall in auction and voila, all of a sudden a BIN gets hit for near record prices. Or a new high at a questionable auction house like Goldin occurs.
I put little faith in the prices from certain auction houses. Cough, cough.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
Like this one. PSA 7’s at $150 on eBay daily.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
so glad i off loaded two of my 9s at crazy prices. my only regret? not offloading the other 2. oh well.
I would argue that this card was never a $10K card... even if one sells for that much (and I think the only one above $10K was sold by PWCC, which has its own concerns). Even at that point, you still need to average that sale with at least a month or two of prior sales to get a ballpark value.
I think people tend to think a card is immediately worth what it last sold for, where in reality it is only worth what the next person will pay for it.
I can’t wait for the unopened bubble to burst. Maybe time for a reverse jinx from Chris?
Has anyone here actually been the consignor for some of those record PWCC prices? I was just wondering if the money actually went to one of the lowly hobbyist on this forum?
As a lowly hobbyist on this forum, I would not send anything to PWCC, ever. I do believe I set a record for a PSA 2 69T Johnny Bench last week though.
ETA: I can also confirm several direct sales by me that were record setting or just a shade under recent PWCC the past few months too.
I can confirm I sold my Dr J PSA 8 for 9K and is a legit sale. Used the funds for a down payment on a car.
Maybe time to throw out the highs and lows for VCP prices. I question some of these 1$M card sales from auction houses.
If I thought those numbered to 23 card prices were real wouldn’t you be seeing another one for sale? I would think the owner or owners would jump at the opportunity for a life changing moment of a cardboard sale. After all you’ve never seen a slowdown of high priced Brady or Jordan cards after REAL sales results. IDK, that’s just me.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
i wouldnt consign to pwcc for several different reasons either. diff time and place. but the 2 two dr j 9s were mine and definitely paid for. they also went to the same guy though. and he's pretty big collector. definitely has plenty of money to not really care if things dip.
but back to the consigning thing, i kinda got away from it for some specific reasons. other than the obvious nefarious worries, i liked seeing if things truly were going for these prices and getting paid for. for the most part they were/are.
but as for the million dollar cards and goldin specifically, i dont believe much there. the giannis & lebrons were bought and paid for. and subsequently used as an advertising vehicles for an investing app. there's also been several articles about the kid, yes kid, who bought the giannis rpa years ago and got the million+ payday. kinda cool. however, anything in regards to goldin/vegas dave/trout super/refractors, i dont believe for one sec. that's been a set up from day one and dating back to the orange that was supposedly listed and paid for about 10 months ago that set the "advertising price" ken used in the first trout red auction. then vegas dave's red supposedly went big based off what the orange did. and then vegas dave listed another one of his oranges. to my knowledge none of these cards have been claimed or shown off by their perspective purchasers.
The '86 Fleer Jordan RC has fluctuated. It took off right before The Last Dance started up, then dipped a bit after the series ended, dropping to $10K-ish for centered PSA 9's. After a month or two, the card seemed to rise up again. Heritage sold a PSA 9 recently, with less than perfect centering, and it ended at $17K with BP. I think recent PWCC sales on PSA 9's of the Jordan RC have been in the $15K range, with high end copies still approaching $20K.
The bubble may not have burst on the Jordan, if it ever does at this point. Maybe the Dr. J RC will see a slight uptick in a couple weeks, you never know with these cards.
I can confirm two months ago one of my Mahomes 2016 select PSA 10's which I consigned with PWCC
brought $10,909 and yes I got paid. I've sold several 10's and 9's with them and the 10's usually bring
$7,500- $7700 and the 9's $3,000-3,300. Also sold many Mahomes rookie prizms and always got paid.
its funny but its usually the lower priced cards that don't get paid for. One was a $660 card and one
a $160 card, only two cards probably all this year that didn't get paid for. All sold through PWCC, they do a great job.