Modern Hobby Boxes - Help a vintage guy

PNWcollector

I stopped in at my local LCS yesterday to mostly look at the vintage in the display case. However, I've had an itch recently to buy and rip modern just for fun. For a vintage collector like me, the number of options is overwhelming. In my LCS shelf I'm seeing Topps/Bowman Chrome, Topps Series 1/2, Update, Archives, Heritage, etc. I bought a 2020 Topps Heritage hobby box because the 1971 look appeals to me, but I'm wondering which hobby boxes out there present a good bang-for-the-buck and decent chance of a good hit? I would not spend more than $150 on a hobby box. The local LCS also has 2019 and 2015 Topps Heritage and older Topps Series 1/2 and Update Hobby boxes (no 2011, though). This may be a very generic question but I'd appreciate any input from modern folks.

Eric

80sForever

I know your dilemma.

In fact, I posted a discussion in a similar spirit recently. As an 80s guy, I too recently got the itch to rip some modern.

On the advice of a couple of helpful members incl. rexvos, I went with 2017 Topps Update to target RC's of Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge. The Hobby Box is going for a little more than $150 however, but it's an option you can consider.

So much easier when they just had that one set huh

phelda

A few ideas:
1) Topps products are fun, have several inserts and the chase of some photo variation cards
2) Panini Donruss has the Rated Rookie cards and has plenty of shiny inserts and possible auto and memorabilia
3) Topps Allen & Ginter can give you the best of both worlds, new cards with a vintage feel and appearance
4) Heritage from all years is also a good bet. A very highly collected product, again with the best of both worlds old/new look.
5) You probably cant get a Bowman or Topps Chrome Hobby box for under $150, sometimes a card shop will have a 24 pack retail box of Bowman and it might be around $150

BLUEJAYWAY

Topps Heritage baseball gets my vote. Especially the Mike Trout years. His card values are high right now. As stated elsewhere Topps chrome as well.

PNWcollector

Thanks guys. I busted the Heritage tonight. Only noteworthy "card" was the Trout box topper. Unfortunately, it flexed a little when I opened the wrapper and now there is a slight surface wrinkle on the back .

blurryface

Hobby is not the way to go anymore, imo. I think the manuf. realized that more people have access to retail and that more people getting "hits" coincidences w/ more buzz about the product, therefore selling more product.

ndleo

@blurryface said:
Hobby is not the way to go anymore, imo. I think the manuf. realized that more people have access to retail and that more people getting "hits" coincidences w/ more buzz about the product, therefore selling more product.

First my point of view is mainly from a Football collector. I made the switch last year and my collection experience has probably IMPROVED. The quality of the retail product is much higher than before with the Mega boxes and exclusives. I still buy some hobby of products I collect like Optic FB, but when I see the sell sheets for most Panini FB, it so repetitive and all of the mid-high tier product (anything higher than base Optic/Prizm and lower than National Treasures) is virtually identical.

I used to buy National Treasures FB and Flawless FB every year to treat myself, but Flawless came out at over $2500/box this year so I decided to reward myself with something less expensive like pharmaceutical grade cocaine. When Flawless was around $1000-$1200 box at issue, I could hope to hit a few $200+ cards and if I got the right auto or RPA, make a few bucks. I couldn't justify spending $5000 on a case.

The lockdown has made it harder to get retail. I was only able to get 2020 Chronicles FB in any meaningful amount so far this year. I opened up a few 2020 Score, which felt like walking into a gas station bathroom with no shoes on. Just horrible.

80sForever

@blurryface said:
Hobby is not the way to go anymore, imo. I think the manuf. realized that more people have access to retail and that more people getting "hits" coincidences w/ more buzz about the product, therefore selling more product.

I think about this too. But it seems the recognizable RC's from base sets are highly sought after. I'll use Bellinger just as an example since he's one of the players I've been looking into a lot lately. His 2017 Topps Update RC in PSA 10 appears to be his flagship and most watched RC based on eBay realized sale prices and auction interest, etc. Obviously, a signed Chrome Superfractor of his blows the base card out of the water, but then one has to consider what are the chances of scoring one of those.

I saw Mike Trout's 1/1 card set the auction record today. I'd be happy with just having one or two of his standard-issue, 2011 Topps Update RC as you're doing pretty well if you bought that card back in 2011 or 2012 and have it today.

But again, I do think about things like increased print runs now as well.

KingBen

So I take it you got the news that the Trout card sold for $4 Mill? 😁

blurryface

@80sForever said:

@blurryface said:
Hobby is not the way to go anymore, imo. I think the manuf. realized that more people have access to retail and that more people getting "hits" coincidences w/ more buzz about the product, therefore selling more product.

I think about this too. But it seems the recognizable RC's from base sets are highly sought after. I'll use Bellinger just as an example since he's one of the players I've been looking into a lot lately. His 2017 Topps Update RC in PSA 10 appears to be his flagship and most watched RC based on eBay realized sale prices and auction interest, etc. Obviously, a signed Chrome Superfractor of his blows the base card out of the water, but then one has to consider what are the chances of scoring one of those.

I saw Mike Trout's 1/1 card set the auction record today. I'd be happy with just having one or two of his standard-issue, 2011 Topps Update RC as you're doing pretty well if you bought that card back in 2011 or 2012 and have it today.

But again, I do think about things like increased print runs now as well.

If I had to guess, I would say the tide probably began to shift with 2018 Topps Chrome Update and the fact that this was not only a retail-only product, but a one outlet target exclusive as well which sold out instantly in all 5 waves it was available. To my recollection, it was just as hot as the earlier Bowman releases which had the Ohtani bounty/hype that brewed up for months prior.

As for regular topps update, I think the only hits in hobby that weren't in retail were the Acetates & Blacks. And the chances of hitting one of those, let alone a star were so astronomical that it made zero sense to pay the hobby premium. Retail was clearly a better bang for your buck.

72Collector

@80sForever said:
On the advice of a couple of helpful members incl. rexvos, I went with 2017 Topps Update to target RC's of Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge. The Hobby Box is going for a little more than $150 however, but it's an option you can consider.

I believe 2017 Topps update is selling for about $240 on Ebay right now.

mcadams

All of the modern sets have huge hits to chase, so you don’t have to pay up for Chrome if you don’t want to. I stick with the various Topps and Bowman products because I can’t stand looking at a Panini card with team logos missing.