Ouch! Losing the crackout game, MS66 to 64
fluffy155
Posts: 265 ✭✭✭✭
Was browsing through the Stacks auction and found this NGC MS-64 bust half:
which had previously been holdered as an NGC MS-66:
Granted from the photos it probably never should have been in a 66 holder at all, but once it's in there why would anyone take it out?
7
Comments
Especially when it's AU 😉
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Given the series and the grade, HOW could one possibly hope for higher than 66 for that particular example??
People are GREEDY!!
I also noticed that NGC has tightened up quite a bit.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I would have liked to see that one run the GTG gauntlet here.
I'm not sure why anyone would think that's a 67
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
Maybe NGC down-graded the coin under their guarantee? I realize that’s a long shot, but so, too, is the thought that someone would crack the coin out of a 66 holder. Of course, this is all based only upon the images provided.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I wouldn't presume to judge AU vs MS on this series solely from photos, but maybe it did come back from PCGS as a 58 (or a 62/63) and he resubmitted it to NGC hoping to get it back in the original grade.
That’s a real knee slapper
BHNC #248 … 130 and counting.
@fluffy155 said:
Granted from the photos it probably never should have been in a 66 holder at all, but once it's in there why would anyone take it out?
Drunk ... stoned ... tripping ... or just plain crazy ... who knows.
That was my first thought too. It would be more likely than someone hoping for an upgrade in my opinion.
Another long shot is that someone cracked it who liked their coins raw but then needed to sell and decided to send it back in.
Cracked for album? To try to improve it?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
WOW, another example of NGC over grade
Out of all possible scenarios; I think this one is most likely.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
My guess is cracked to cross to PCGS- came back (enter your less-than-66 grade here) cracked, sent back to NGC where it got what looks to be appropriately graded at 64.
Unfortunately for the former owner, any scenario of cracking the N66 holder was a bad idea.
I thought that to cross a coin to a different tpg, it's supposed to be submitted still in the slab with the grade covered up, that way if it doesn't cross over or meet the submitters minimum grade it stays in the old slab. Am i wrong?
No, you're right, a "cross" is technically in the holder, cracked it's a new submission.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
If you’re willing to accept a lower grade, it’s more prudent to leave the coin in the holder and use crossover service with a specified minimum grade. Also, as has since been pointed out, cracking the coin out and “cross” are mutually exclusive terms.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I would say it has all the fingerprints of such a scenario
BHNC #248 … 130 and counting.
a gamble on a long shot is why someone cracked it out and they lost
COINS FOR SALE, IN LINK BELOW
https://photos.app.goo.gl/KCJYQg9x5sPJiCBc9
Hopefully the cert was returned to lower the pops.
I don't think so. When the services downgrade coins, they typically void the original certification numbers. The MS66 certification label is still valid. Either someone cracked it or crossed it as "ANY" to PCGS and received an unpleasant surprise. They resubmitted to NGC only to end up being burned twice.
As for those opining that someone was speculating for a MS67 grade, I doubt it. The reality for this series generally and definitely for this issue based on auction records (if you search deep for sales during the same time frames) is that PCGS 65s sell for what NGC 66s sell for. I believe this was a case of the reverse crack out game gone wrong. The submitter didn't think there was much risk so he tried a cross as "ANY" to our host. A 65 without a sticker would be a wash or close. A 65 with a sticker would be at least a wash or small profit. A 65+ would have generated $6k-$7k more for the submitter than the auction appearance as a NGC 66.
Interesting... It still doesn't have a CAC sticker as a 64.
That coin is the poster coin for gem NGC bust halves from around 2004-2012. You can hide a lot of issues under some secondary toning where the coin has an overall "smooth" look. 80% luster looks almost "ok" under that toning....though 95-100% would be better.
And it was no secret NGC was pumping out 65's at 4X the rate as PCGS in that period. The up-graders knew where the money was to be made. Until CAC came along you could get 85% of the PCGS price just based on the NGC holdered grade. Everyone played that game who dealt in gem type in that era. Many gifts were handed out. It's quite possible this owner of this coin cracked it out to get it into a PCGS MS65 holder....and failed. NGC choice and gem bust halves from 1996-2012 were full of lower end traps. At least PCGS held that line pretty well with gem 19th century silver type. All those "crackout" game winners from the old days....become crack out game losers in the post CAC world. A game of musical chairs.
I ran into one of these gifts around 2006 in a "finest graded" NGC MS66 seated half. Best by 2 pts anywhere. It came out of a major "name" collection where lots of high grades were assigned. In person, the coin was MS64 at best....I felt a 63+. It had all the same issues as this coin....messed with surfaces....deficient luster....etc. That particular coin was down-graded by NGC to a 65 even though it should have gone down 2 points. When it was auctioned a few months after the down grade....it fetched MS64 money. No one was fooled by the 65 grade. Ironically, when this coin first appeared at auction "raw" out of the major name sale, it fetched MS64 money....completing the cycle from 64 to 66 to 65 to "64." Fooling some people along the way. From 1996-2012 there were huge issues with grading.
Maybe the owner was just fed up with the coin and didn't bother submitting?
Actually, the title of the thread should be "winning the crack out game." Thing is, eventually you have to pay the piper....and a future owner loses big time in our post CAC world. I'd wager that coin was graded 66 in the 1998-2012 era. If it's in a newer holder that was probably only done to make people think it was more recently graded. Though at some point, the TPG's have to bite the bullet and downgrade such legacy coins. Look how much press this one 1830 bust half is having right here. Readers won't forget.
This is all good info to know, thanks!
My guess is that the NGC 66 was crossed at "any" grade and the owner was unhappy with PCGS's assessment. It was then resubmitted to NGC, probably raw (why let on to PCGS's lower grade?), hoping to achieve its earlier 66 grade.
It didn't fare so well.
If it were my coin it would have come back in an NGC bodybag.
Lance.
Silly wabbit.
Straight crosses have to be pre-approved in NJ now.
My Saint Set
You make a fairly compelling case.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
In the quest for more money comes the naked truth; the actual grade. It's what it is.
this one is confusing. there are too many "options" with each particular TPG to use the crack-out option out-of-the-gate with a high grade, high priced coin like this. I remember being at a F.U.N. Show PCGS luncheon around 2003-4 and HRH suggested, almost pleaded with everyone: don't crack coins out, send them to us in the holder and let us make a judgement. I guess someone gambled and the result is a $5k bath.
@keets, I think its highly likely that this coins was tried in the slab for a crossover, at least once, perhaps many times, before it went in "raw"
And what “actual grade” would that be? The current grade, previous grade(s) or future grade(s)?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I think its highly likely that this coins was tried in the slab for a crossover, at least once, perhaps many times, before it went in "raw"
so you think it's highly likely that someone asked for an opinion, at least once and perhaps many times, but refused to accept it?? if that is true than it's highly likely that the submitter deserved the bath they took.
Understandably, many submitters believe that they have a better chance at a higher grade if they submit a coin out of a holder. At the same time, however, submitting a coin in the holder for crossover removes the risk of an unpleasant surprise. So I think it makes sense to try crossover, first - at a particular minimum grade, initially and in some instances, if that fails, again at a lower minimum grade.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Who knows. It could be an occasional loss amid dozens of successes. There are guys cracking out a tremendous number of coins. Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose. It’s always easier to see what should have happened in hindsight.
Once a coin is in the slab and straight graded it should be left there. It makes no sense to look for a new grade, especially unreasonably in this rough economy.
I disagree with such an all-encompassing statement. In many cases, it makes little or no sense not to look for a new (higher grade).
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
The answer is, of course, "yes".
Only one “yes”? 😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Correct, poor choice of words. Cracked and submitted to PCGS is what I meant.
Would more make things any clearer?
Actually, the naked truth suggests it is currently MS 64.
There's lots of AU 62/63 Bust halves and quarters in PCGS plastic as well. Technical grade is only relative when really what you get is an appraisal from TPG's.