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Ouch! Losing the crackout game, MS66 to 64

fluffy155fluffy155 Posts: 227 ✭✭✭✭

Was browsing through the Stacks auction and found this NGC MS-64 bust half:

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-NLVHF/1830-capped-bust-half-dollar-o-107-rarity-2-small-0-ms-64-ngc

which had previously been holdered as an NGC MS-66:

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/1-1DFTT/1830-capped-bust-half-dollar-o-107-rarity-2-small-0-ms-66-ngc

Granted from the photos it probably never should have been in a 66 holder at all, but once it's in there why would anyone take it out?

Comments

  • neildrobertsonneildrobertson Posts: 1,179 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm not sure why anyone would think that's a 67

    IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
    "Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me

  • fluffy155fluffy155 Posts: 227 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 7, 2020 4:36PM

    I wouldn't presume to judge AU vs MS on this series solely from photos, but maybe it did come back from PCGS as a 58 (or a 62/63) and he resubmitted it to NGC hoping to get it back in the original grade.

  • Pnies20Pnies20 Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Baley said:
    Especially when it's AU 😉

    That’s a real knee slapper

    BHNC #248 … 108 and counting.

  • JimnightJimnight Posts: 10,767 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @fluffy155 said:

    Granted from the photos it probably never should have been in a 66 holder at all, but once it's in there why would anyone take it out?

    Drunk ... stoned ... tripping ... or just plain crazy ... who knows.

  • U1chicagoU1chicago Posts: 5,552 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MFeld said:
    Maybe NGC down-graded the coin under their guarantee? I realize that’s a long shot, but so, too, is the thought that someone would crack the coin out of a 66 holder. Of course, this is all based only upon the images provided.

    That was my first thought too. It would be more likely than someone hoping for an upgrade in my opinion.

    Another long shot is that someone cracked it who liked their coins raw but then needed to sell and decided to send it back in.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Jimnight said:
    @fluffy155 said:

    Granted from the photos it probably never should have been in a 66 holder at all, but once it's in there why would anyone take it out?

    Drunk ... stoned ... tripping ... or just plain crazy ... who knows.

    Cracked for album? To try to improve it?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • jt88jt88 Posts: 2,795 ✭✭✭✭✭

    WOW, another example of NGC over grade

  • WalkerfanWalkerfan Posts: 8,897 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @fluffy155 said:
    I wouldn't presume to judge AU vs MS on this series solely from photos, but maybe it did come back from PCGS as a 58 (or a 62/63) and he resubmitted it to NGC hoping to get it back in the original grade.

    Out of all possible scenarios; I think this one is most likely.

    “I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~

    My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947)

    https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/

  • CircCamCircCam Posts: 217 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My guess is cracked to cross to PCGS- came back (enter your less-than-66 grade here) cracked, sent back to NGC where it got what looks to be appropriately graded at 64.

    Unfortunately for the former owner, any scenario of cracking the N66 holder was a bad idea.

  • AtcarrollAtcarroll Posts: 338 ✭✭✭

    @CircCam said:
    My guess is cracked to cross to PCGS- came back (enter your less-than-66 grade here) cracked, sent back to NGC where it got what looks to be appropriately graded at 64.

    Unfortunately for the former owner, any scenario of cracking the N66 holder was a bad idea.

    I thought that to cross a coin to a different tpg, it's supposed to be submitted still in the slab with the grade covered up, that way if it doesn't cross over or meet the submitters minimum grade it stays in the old slab. Am i wrong?

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭

    No, you're right, a "cross" is technically in the holder, cracked it's a new submission.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 11,921 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CircCam said:
    My guess is cracked to cross to PCGS- came back (enter your less-than-66 grade here) cracked, sent back to NGC where it got what looks to be appropriately graded at 64.

    Unfortunately for the former owner, any scenario of cracking the N66 holder was a bad idea.

    If you’re willing to accept a lower grade, it’s more prudent to leave the coin in the holder and use crossover service with a specified minimum grade. Also, as has since been pointed out, cracking the coin out and “cross” are mutually exclusive terms.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • Pnies20Pnies20 Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @CircCam said:
    My guess is cracked to cross to PCGS- came back (enter your less-than-66 grade here) cracked, sent back to NGC where it got what looks to be appropriately graded at 64.

    Unfortunately for the former owner, any scenario of cracking the N66 holder was a bad idea.

    I would say it has all the fingerprints of such a scenario

    BHNC #248 … 108 and counting.

  • silverpopsilverpop Posts: 6,591 ✭✭✭✭✭

    a gamble on a long shot is why someone cracked it out and they lost

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 33,811 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Hopefully the cert was returned to lower the pops.

  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 10,060 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Interesting... It still doesn't have a CAC sticker as a 64.

  • fluffy155fluffy155 Posts: 227 ✭✭✭✭

    Maybe the owner was just fed up with the coin and didn't bother submitting?

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 7, 2020 9:24PM

    Actually, the title of the thread should be "winning the crack out game." Thing is, eventually you have to pay the piper....and a future owner loses big time in our post CAC world. I'd wager that coin was graded 66 in the 1998-2012 era. If it's in a newer holder that was probably only done to make people think it was more recently graded. Though at some point, the TPG's have to bite the bullet and downgrade such legacy coins. Look how much press this one 1830 bust half is having right here. Readers won't forget.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • fluffy155fluffy155 Posts: 227 ✭✭✭✭

    This is all good info to know, thanks!

  • lkeigwinlkeigwin Posts: 16,885 ✭✭✭✭✭

    My guess is that the NGC 66 was crossed at "any" grade and the owner was unhappy with PCGS's assessment. It was then resubmitted to NGC, probably raw (why let on to PCGS's lower grade?), hoping to achieve its earlier 66 grade.

    It didn't fare so well.

    If it were my coin it would have come back in an NGC bodybag.
    Lance.

  • ReadyFireAimReadyFireAim Posts: 1,800 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Silly wabbit.
    Straight crosses have to be pre-approved in NJ now. ;)

  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 11,921 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cameonut2011 said:

    @MFeld said:
    Maybe NGC down-graded the coin under their guarantee? I realize that’s a long shot, but so, too, is the thought that someone would crack the coin out of a 66 holder. Of course, this is all based only upon the images provided.

    I don't think so. When the services downgrade coins, they typically void the original certification numbers. The MS66 certification label is still valid. Either someone cracked it or crossed it as "ANY" to PCGS and received an unpleasant surprise. They resubmitted to NGC only to end up being burned twice.

    As for those opining that someone was speculating for a MS67 grade, I doubt it. The reality for this series generally and definitely for this issue based on auction records (if you search deep for sales during the same time frames) is that PCGS 65s sell for what NGC 66s sell for. I believe this was a case of the reverse crack out game gone wrong. The submitter didn't think there was much risk so he tried a cross as "ANY" to our host. A 65 without a sticker would be a wash or close. A 65 with a sticker would be at least a wash or small profit. A 65+ would have generated $6k-$7k more for the submitter than the auction appearance as a NGC 66.

    You make a fairly compelling case.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,795 ✭✭✭✭✭

    In the quest for more money comes the naked truth; the actual grade. It's what it is.

  • keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭

    this one is confusing. there are too many "options" with each particular TPG to use the crack-out option out-of-the-gate with a high grade, high priced coin like this. I remember being at a F.U.N. Show PCGS luncheon around 2003-4 and HRH suggested, almost pleaded with everyone: don't crack coins out, send them to us in the holder and let us make a judgement. I guess someone gambled and the result is a $5k bath.

  • AngryTurtleAngryTurtle Posts: 1,549 ✭✭✭

    @keets, I think its highly likely that this coins was tried in the slab for a crossover, at least once, perhaps many times, before it went in "raw"

  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 11,921 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 9, 2020 9:12AM

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:
    In the quest for more money comes the naked truth; the actual grade. It's what it is.

    And what “actual grade” would that be? The current grade, previous grade(s) or future grade(s)?

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 9, 2020 9:22AM

    I think its highly likely that this coins was tried in the slab for a crossover, at least once, perhaps many times, before it went in "raw"

    so you think it's highly likely that someone asked for an opinion, at least once and perhaps many times, but refused to accept it?? if that is true than it's highly likely that the submitter deserved the bath they took.

  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 11,921 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @keets said:
    I think its highly likely that this coins was tried in the slab for a crossover, at least once, perhaps many times, before it went in "raw"

    so you think it's highly likely that someone asked for an opinion, at least once and perhaps many times, but refused to accept it?? if that is true than it's highly likely that the submitter deserved the bath they took.

    Understandably, many submitters believe that they have a better chance at a higher grade if they submit a coin out of a holder. At the same time, however, submitting a coin in the holder for crossover removes the risk of an unpleasant surprise. So I think it makes sense to try crossover, first - at a particular minimum grade, initially and in some instances, if that fails, again at a lower minimum grade.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • BryceMBryceM Posts: 11,721 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Who knows. It could be an occasional loss amid dozens of successes. There are guys cracking out a tremendous number of coins. Sometimes they win, sometimes they lose. It’s always easier to see what should have happened in hindsight.

  • logger7logger7 Posts: 8,017 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Once a coin is in the slab and straight graded it should be left there. It makes no sense to look for a new grade, especially unreasonably in this rough economy.

  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 11,921 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @logger7 said:
    Once a coin is in the slab and straight graded it should be left there. It makes no sense to look for a new grade, especially unreasonably in this rough economy.

    I disagree with such an all-encompassing statement. In many cases, it makes little or no sense not to look for a new (higher grade).

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,268 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MFeld said:
    And what “actual grade” would that be? The current grade, previous grade(s) or future grade(s)?

    The answer is, of course, "yes". :#

  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 11,921 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MasonG said:

    @MFeld said:
    And what “actual grade” would that be? The current grade, previous grade(s) or future grade(s)?

    The answer is, of course, "yes". :#

    Only one “yes”? 😉

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • CircCamCircCam Posts: 217 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Atcarroll said:

    @CircCam said:
    My guess is cracked to cross to PCGS- came back (enter your less-than-66 grade here) cracked, sent back to NGC where it got what looks to be appropriately graded at 64.

    Unfortunately for the former owner, any scenario of cracking the N66 holder was a bad idea.

    I thought that to cross a coin to a different tpg, it's supposed to be submitted still in the slab with the grade covered up, that way if it doesn't cross over or meet the submitters minimum grade it stays in the old slab. Am i wrong?

    @MFeld said:

    @CircCam said:
    My guess is cracked to cross to PCGS- came back (enter your less-than-66 grade here) cracked, sent back to NGC where it got what looks to be appropriately graded at 64.

    Unfortunately for the former owner, any scenario of cracking the N66 holder was a bad idea.

    If you’re willing to accept a lower grade, it’s more prudent to leave the coin in the holder and use crossover service with a specified minimum grade. Also, as has since been pointed out, cracking the coin out and “cross” are mutually exclusive terms.

    Correct, poor choice of words. Cracked and submitted to PCGS is what I meant.

  • MasonGMasonG Posts: 6,268 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MFeld said:

    @MasonG said:

    @MFeld said:
    And what “actual grade” would that be? The current grade, previous grade(s) or future grade(s)?

    The answer is, of course, "yes". :#

    Only one “yes”? 😉

    Would more make things any clearer? ;)

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,795 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MFeld said:

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:
    In the quest for more money comes the naked truth; the actual grade. It's what it is.

    And what “actual grade” would that be? The current grade, previous grade(s) or future grade(s)?

    Actually, the naked truth suggests it is currently MS 64.

  • fiftysevenerfiftysevener Posts: 896 ✭✭✭✭

    @jt88 said:
    WOW, another example of NGC over grade

    There's lots of AU 62/63 Bust halves and quarters in PCGS plastic as well. Technical grade is only relative when really what you get is an appraisal from TPG's.

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