What is the future trajectory for unopened baseball product from 1981 to 1987?
Publius1787
Posts: 15 ✭
Question: What is the future trajectory for unopened baseball product from 1981 to 1987?
Hi Everyone,
I am a new arrival to these message boards and appreciate whatever insight you can offer. I would like to ask for your feedback on the future trajectory of prices and collectability for unopened baseball product for the years 1981 – 1987.
My questions:
In the last year unopened wax boxes, rack and cello boxes, of products from 1981 – 1987 have increased dramatically. For example, 1983 Topps has doubled from around $400 to close to $800 (the BBCE buy price for 1983 Topps wax boxes recently increased to $600). Obviously the supply of this material has diminished over the last decade with collectors opening boxes at a lower price point for nostalgia or grading. But at $800 for a 1983 Topps wax box, the economics of opening for grading begins to lose its support and I assume that collectors are approaching unopened wax as the object for collecting in itself. Do others agree or disagree? At $800 a box for 1983 Topps is anyone still opening it?
Keeping with this theme, other issues, like 1985 Topps have experienced a significant increase in price. Is there a natural ceiling to what this stuff can be worth? Will 1985 Topps wax boxes ever surpass $1000 a box? Why would it? Here I would like to note that I have excluded 1980 Topps for a reason. 1980 Topps has shown its ability to appreciate in value and the Henderson rookie is iconic. I also think that 1980 Topps has more in common with the late 1970s than it does with the mid-1980s in terms of collectability and scarcity. My question here, is whether you think prices over the next 5 – 10 years will increase exponentially, linearly, or non-linearly with diminishing marginal increases until the price reaches a steady-state?
1987 Donruss. An amazing issue and one that I love for its design and rookie class. I have noticed that BBCE FASC wrapped boxes and OPC FASC wrapped boxes are priced at $100 or more. I feel like there should still be a strong supply of 1987 Donruss out there to support a lower price point. Is anyone buying these boxes at $100? If so, I’m interested in your rationale for making the purchase. I think you can find them case fresh and unsearched on eBay for close to $40 per box if you are patient. Granted, they have increased in price over the last 5 years, but $100 for a FASC wrapped box seems high.
Bottom Line: Do you think that unopened baseball product from the period 1981 – 1987 is overpriced and we will experience a market correction? Do you think some issues will increase and others stabilize? Do you think it will continue to increase? I’m really interested in your thoughts on this question, considering consumer buying habits, tastes, market supply, and dealer pricing.
Thanks for your consideration and taking the time to read.
Comments
I have sets and unopened from the '80's that are suddenly inspiring to break open and start digging for items to sub, but by the time the raw material is graded and returned, the pandemic value spike may have passed. I'm guessing that '80's is not a long term rise across the board, but rather, there were some items/players who were overdue for a market correction and will stay at these new highs, and there are some other items that are enjoying a good ride by association but will come back down. In a way, it is sort of like when an average player can compile great stats based on the success of his team so that he looks better than he is (e.g., Osgood, et.al.).
At some point the value will be $0.00 because eventually the last box will be open some time in the future.
Those seem like the questions an electrician would ask.
Welcome to the boards! Thank you for posting a thought-provoking question and sharing some of your logic. As one of the top private collectors and openers of 1980s material (see my “I Love the 1980s” thread) I would confidently say that this new price correction is here to stay. This era has been undervalued for far too long. The supply of 1980s unopened is a fixed variable that will only decrease over time. What has changed is the influx of demand, given the former collectors who have returned to the hobby they once loved. The kids who collected in the 80s now have disposable income and childhood memories of the great players like Jordan, Bird, Magic, Montana, Rice, Henderson, Ripken, Griffey. This expansion of the hobby will continue as this generation eyes retirement and looks for home hobbies during this new COVID normal.
Gone are the days of 1983 Topps baseball at $250/box, 1986 Topps Football at $600/box and 86/87 Fleer basketball at $25,000/box. The collectors who grew up in the 60s and 70s scoffed at 80s material for years hyping the endless supply of product. What they failed to realize was the condition challenges of pulling pack fresh cards in PSA 10 or in some cases even PSA 9. Cards typically come out of fresh 1980s packs in PSA 7-8 condition given the poor production quality as Topps, Fleer, Donruss and others cranked the presses as quickly as possible to literally print money during the boom.
I am not suggesting that 80s material is as rare nor as condition impossible as cards pre-1981. What I am certain of, given my extensive ripping of 1980s product, is that the supply of PSA 10 cards will not grow exponentially in the coming years. The best opened star/rookie cards have already been submitted. The increase in unopened prices will slow the rippers (except me 🤣), and those that do rip will only find a 1-2% hit rate on PSA 10 worthy cards.
Net, the big price jump just happened on a very undervalued era. There will be a continued ascent in prices for iconic PSA 10 and key unopened years for the next 15-20 years. So jump in while the water is warm and exercise a buy and hold mindset. I did for the past 25 years and I am glad I stocked up!
^This^
One thing I recall the most when doing card shows... Those 1987 20-box Wax Cases were the heaviest... until Upper Deck hit us with their 20-box cases which seemed to be heavier...
...asked no one ever.
Andy
Lol - a few years ago, this post would have been discarded. Junk has risen again!
I love this discussion. I agree that fewer boxes are being ripped as prices increase. Boxes like 1980 and earlier are the equivalent of a single graded card as far as collectability and enjoyment. Wax boxes from the 80’s and earlier are works of art for us young at heart. Would you rather look at a George Brett psa 9 rookie or a wax box of 1980 Topps in your display case? For more and more the beauty of those boxes is overtaking the single cards. In my humble or absolutely crazy opinion!
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Hmmm.....methinks 84 Topps Ryan racks are not included in this "junk" discussion hahaha.
Andy
Has anyone ever found a semi-reliable source or figure for Topps card production through the years to help answer the scarcity question ?
Does anyone think Topps even has the data themselves?
Found an interesting youtube video on newer production numbers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6ux5QKmUQk
The writing of a few of you on here is like a college term paper, nicely put together, thought provoking, and enjoyable to read. Thanks.
1) I agree that there's a price point where I would rather have the sealed box vs buying a box to open (because the GEM 10 cards will be hard to find and you could lose money if you open the box). In this case, the sum of the parts could be much less than the whole...
2) Can '85 Topps break $1,000 / box? I think it can -- especially if McGwire and/or Clemens ever make it into the HOF. Boxes that are guaranteed from a sealed case and from a trusted source will always bring top dollar. I certainly believe '85Topps FASC will break $1,000 / box in the next 5-10 years (even if they don't make the HOF).
3) '87 Donruss -- you can find them cheaper when they are not FASC and Sealed. But you have to know and trust your source. Wax tampering is always a problem... I'd rather pay a premium to know the product is all original. Certainly there are many honest dealers out there where you can get them under $100/box. But at this point, there's alot of FOMO - so some are just stocking up on sealed FASC boxes for hopes of a larger payday down the road...
4) Some of these products might be slightly overpriced in the short term, but if you're looking 5-10 years from now, I think Sealed FASC boxes should mostly be higher than where they are now. Supply for these can only go down being ripped open or tucked away in collections. As long as the net number of collectors is positive (entering vs exiting), then I think prices can be higher in the long run. Sprinkling in some occasional corrections would be healthy -- just like the stock market... (imho)
>
I'd say that 90% or more of those buying 1983 Topps wax at today's prices are not ripping. Many new unopened collectors have entered the market and are focusing their collection very heavily on unopened material. But like with anything else, there are always the exceptions and they reside in the last 10%. and are indeed busting these boxes. So in the end supply will always continue to decrease even if at much slower rates as when product cost much less.
I can see $1,000 per box FASC '85 Topps wax in the future. 1985 Topps is chock full of desirable cards and has the US Olympic Team subset. McGwire will always be huge in popularity HOF or no HOF. PLUS the voracious nature of unopened collectors is just not going to disappear because 1970's material are becoming unicorns. They are moving into the next logical time period as I have been explaining since before the price explosion. So get 'em while you can!
I'm a huge advocate of FASC and unapologetic about it. I happily snub my nose at any post 1980 unopened boxes that are not FASC.
I think this time period you describe needs to be broken into two parts. 1981 to 1985 and then 1986 and up. I DO NOT think '81 to '85 are overpriced but I do believe we will enter an period of pricing that plateaus. It's just not been the history of quality unopened to shed value. 1986 on up is more questionable as there is mountains of it still out there but I would not underestimate the voracious appetite out there to suck much of this stuff up as long as it is top quality.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Topps never released production numbers in the "olden days" production numbers were a big secret. Some/most/all of the cards that went unsold were probably disposed of. I am sure most of us have heard about the 1952 product being dumped in the ocean.
Until Larry Fritch started taking the old stock off of Topps' hands, (early 1970's?) I would think it went to the dump. No business is going to keep inventory that is "expired".
Of course since the advent of the chase cards, production numbers can at least be guessed at.
Demand drives the card market, so trying to figure out supply is almost pointless.
That's already happened with older wax packs and boxes. With the newer stuff we're still talking cases, but that will change. 1987 Topps has really jumped in the last few months. I ended my rip of wax boxes because the cards were garbage. Much better to hold onto the box than to rip it.
Agree. It seems pretty obvious the majority of collectors don't care about the juicers going into the HOF. Bonds, Sosa and Canseco's cards are on the rise along with the two you mentioned.
Agree again. Hard to tell in this hobby who is honest and who is a scammer.
This is WAY better than the stock market (imho), where it seems to me stock is being openly manipulated. The card hobby seems to be like the stock market used to be, growth followed by some leveling off, possibly slight decline, followed by growth. Certain years with good rookie crops will lead the way. I wonder if second year cards will ever get popular again?
Wow. $27k for a 1976 fb rack box on heritage. It wasn't even the right outer box.
I also saw a Michigan topps box was over $1k
Did I really see that a 1980 Topps bbce basketball box hit $25,000 in Heritage last night?
Definitely some crazy prices actualized on unopened right now! It has been fun to watch, and made me regret not picking up a ton more a few years ago.
Also 1980 Baseball boxes passing up 1979 Baseball wax.
Personally Id rather have the 79s
1980 unopened is more popular right now and seems to be tougher to find. 79 Topps baseball is everywhere.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
1980 cello boxes are tough too
Hi new guy, I think unopened football is the way to go especially 1977. Big rookie card in that one.
Seriously though, I am really curious to see what happens when things settle down. That is the time we may see a price correction like we saw awhile back with 1978 to 1980. But then those years steadily rebounded to new highs now. I think we will see the same phenomenon with 1981 to 1985. Although if 1988 Donruss cases start increasing, I will get out of unopened as that is a sure sign of the apocalypse.
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep."
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."
Collecting:
Any unopened Baseball cello and rack packs and boxes from the 1970's and early 1980s.
All this talk about unopened boxes and or cases, what are opinions on unopened packs?
That used to be a small sect of the market but it has exploded in popularity. Unopened pack collecting is white hot.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
I think you can probably break the '80s decade down into as many as 4 or 5 subgroups, if you wanted to really get precise. By 1985, production runs were increasing so much with each passing year that it's silly to compare 1985 with 1987 or 1986 with 1988. Trying to examine everything between 1981 and 1987 is just impossible, you're talking about multiple different markets operating all on their own with their own unique traits and influences.
Arthur
I've got a sealed box of 1980 Topps Hockey collecting dust in a safe spot relative to temperature conditions. I also have a set of it. I pulled the best looking cards from the set not long ago expecting 9's and 10's, and they came back 8's and 9's. Doesn't give me high hopes of breaking the hockey box. Does anyone know if the puck scratchoff area gets worse over time while inside the sealed packs, such that the scratchoff stuff sticks the cards together a bit like you'd see with something like 1993 upper deck gloss bricking?
1987 Topps is the one that makes me scratch my head, with FASC boxes selling for $70 to $80 shipped. Lots of rookies for sure, but probably the most produced of all the 1981 to 1987 issues.
Reed posted about this specific year in another thread not too long ago. It would be interesting to see if his views are the same today.
Many are ripping in search of PSA 10 Bonds, which is quite the bear even with production factored in.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
Interesting discussion for sure. Basics of long term supply and demand seem to point to continued increases. Short term who knows if it’s gotten ahead of itself. As more collectors re-enter the hobby and demand for unopened as a newer category for some collectors this should lead to continued increase in demand. As some open boxes in search of treasures this will lower supply.
It will be interesting to see what new pricing does to shake out new supply, particularly 80’s era cases.
Bonds' cards are going for $200.00. Bo Jackson $125.00. McGwire's for $100.00 or more. Canseco's $100 or more. Ryan $50. Mattingly $50. Larkin $50. Rose $50. Clark $40.
Palmeiro comes in at $35-40.
Supply means little. 10's are incredibly hard to find.
Demand is what drives the price.
Sure. I have 23 Barry Bonds all ripped back in the day. Not one is 9 worthy due to centering.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
cards are like stonks, they can only go up.
I ripped about 8,000 1987 Topps a couple months ago. Combination of wax (complete crap) vending (mostly garbage) and a case of rack (better, but almost all off center). Ended up with about 12 to 18 cards of each player.
No Bonds, Palmeiro, Puckett, Ripken cards are being submitted. I did have good luck with Bo Jackson though. Also got a couple of Canseco's and McGwire's. Now I have to hope PSA agrees with me. I seriously doubt they will on all of them.
First of all if there's no demand it doesn't matter what the supply is, secondly if the cards are all off center or plagued with print defects, the supply isn't really what people really think it is. All you have to do is compare OPC and Topps to realize "supply" means next to nothing. With the exception of a few investment cards.
I used to spout the same drivel about how much unopened there was out there........until I opened some. There aren't many 1987 Topps 10's out there in those packs.
I couldn't agree more with the division between 85 and 86!! I only know one person who snubs his nose at not FASC boxes and that weirdo is a Yankee's fan LOL!!! Hope this is you Dan!!
I think 1980 is overpriced, if i was everyone i would try and dump it ASAP!!!
There needs to be a print job reckoning. There are people that can appreciate how hard it is to find 10 centering and 10 corners and all other attributes in a 10 and then find them all together on one card but so many people either disregard or don't know how effing hard it is to find a 10 worthy print job, front and back, from 1980s cards.
Forget every other attribute (centering, corners, edges, surface), open a box of any 1980s Topps product and try to find a perfect print job with bright, vibrant colors and rich, dark blacks, front and back. It's not easy.
Arthur
@jordangretzkyfan would vigorously disagree on your '87 Topps Bonds thoughts.
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
That's me lol. Who be this?
ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240
How many nuts do you know who might trade in their wife for a Rickey Henderson PSA 10 Cello?
Any idea what a 1980 Topps baseball FASC wax box would go for in this market?
Brian
This is incredibly silly. It works for a card like a '52 Mantle because those are worth submitting an any grade, but if you have a bunch of Bonds in VG-EX you're not going to submit them. Either they are not worth grading fees or the increase in value isn't worth the grading fee. Second, it is silly to assume the demand for '87 Bonds at $200 is 1. It's like saying these group breaks can't happen because there is only one person who wants a '77 cello pack at $325, so the 24th pack would only have demand at something like $205. The reason why this type of break works is left as an exercise for the reader.
smh
I would say 3600+
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
What the who then how?!
Who is this big rookie in 2001 Bowman Chrome? Anyone that buys a box of that for $700 has pudding for brains. Both Pujols and Ichiro are redemptions. I've got bad news for you, those redemptions expired. As for your "his 100th box is worth nothing," Schrodinger's Cat doesn't apply to economics. Just because Box #1 doesn't sell at $30 it doesn't mean Box #100 is worth $0.
If I list a card here on B/S/T for $500 and it doesn't sell, is it worth less than $500? What if there are two active auctions on eBay of the same card in the same grade and they're both north of $600? Does my card not sell because it isn't worth $500 or could there be other variables involved, like exposure or personal preference?
I think what some are trying to explain to you is that the total submissions that PSA has received is not an accurate representation of what is "out there," in your terms. The cards submitted to PSA are culled by the submitter and are chosen to be submitted because they are believed to have a non-zero chance at a PSA 10 (I don't remember any time when PSA 9s of this card were a profitable submission).
Do different submitters have different skills and knowledge, making their choices have a higher percentage? Absolutely. But just about 90% got an 8 or 9 so those that missed were mostly pretty close. So these submissions aren't representative of what you're going to find in someone's childhood collection or from a fresh unopened source. You're not going to find 1:10 Bonds that you're going to get a PSA 10 on. You're going to take those Bonds that you're pretty much absolutely sure are PSA 10s and only have a 10% strike rate on them.
Does that make sense?
Arthur
what about unopened football boxes and packs?
What are you smoking?
Since 7/28 four have sold for $190.00-$202.50.
Please do a little research before you post.