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What does this tell you?

derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited March 24, 2020 1:48PM in Precious Metals

Barron's headline:

"The Dow Had Its Best Day Since 1933 on Hope That Congress Might Agree on a Stimulus Bill"

Tells me QEver will blow another bubble. I'm not sure the air is out of this one just yet.

Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

Comments

  • DoubleEagle59DoubleEagle59 Posts: 7,542 ✭✭✭✭
    edited March 24, 2020 1:54PM

    Such a topsy turvy economic world.

    The idea that 'we must borrow and go into debt, to stimulate the economy'.

    The present day logic is "with currency that isn't backed by anything, why not?"

    Can you imagine any economist or government official thinking of such a stupid idea pre 1970?

    I often wonder why don't thay just print 1 million dollars for each and everyone.

    It's crazy.

    I agree with Peter Schiff, that a depression is a cure to the economic cold (boom times).

    We should have had a depression back in 2000.

    But that was artificially prevented to happen.

    Then 2008 should have been a depression but that was artificially stopped.

    Now this.

    Trouble is, everytime we avert a depression, the next one becomes more severe.

    It is definitely a massive house of cards and I couldn't tell you (nor anyone else for that matter) if it will last for 50 days or 50 years.

    But when it blows up, it'll take every living investor with them.

    The only item(s) that will save you is owning and keeping your own Precious metals.

    Sometimes I feel I'm a dinosaur thinking this way.

    "Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)

    "Gold is the canary in the financial coal mine." (Alan Greenspan)

    "I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
  • philographerphilographer Posts: 719 ✭✭✭✭

    I'm just glad that money is a cure for getting the virus. Can't wait to get back into some large crowds. Cough. Cough.

    Challenges are what make life interesting and overcoming them is what makes life meaningful.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,086 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Bubbles are great. When does silver bubble? Asking for a friend.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 24, 2020 2:45PM

    @cohodk said:
    Bubbles are great. When does silver bubble? Asking for a friend.

    Like everything else - when it gets FED stimulus.

    Explain the insurance thingy to your friend, once you have figured it out.

    Next to last in line?

    Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,086 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:
    Bubbles are great. When does silver bubble? Asking for a friend.

    Like everything else - when it gets FED stimulus.

    Explain the insurance thingy to your friend, once you have figured it out.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭

    while you're at it figure out the difference between spot price and real price. Something tells me that it's about to become even more important.

    Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,086 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    while you're at it figure out the difference between spot price and real price. Something tells me that it's about to become even more important.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 24, 2020 2:59PM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    while you're at it figure out the difference between spot price and real price. Something tells me that it's about to become even more important.

    Typical of you to show just a part of the story to push your typical false narrative. Let's take a look at the whole story:

    Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,086 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    while you're at it figure out the difference between spot price and real price. Something tells me that it's about to become even more important.



    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,086 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 24, 2020 3:04PM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    while you're at it figure out the difference between spot price and real price. Something tells me that it's about to become even more important.

    Typical of you to show just a part of the story to push your typical false narrative. Let's take a look at the whole story:

    Nothing false. Dude cashed in his insurance policy and got spot. The rest of the story is irrelevant. But if you want to make it relevant, are these ASE worth $17 or as you claim $24?

    Why would anyone every want to participate in a market where price discovery is virtually non-existent?

    These buyback prices on silver are making used car dealers look like saints!!


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Also, while researching spot, you might want to spend some time learning the difference between wholesale and retail. Wide spread between the two is a result of that fictitious spot price you're gonna be reading up on.

    Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,086 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Also, while researching spot, you might want to spend some time learning the difference between wholesale and retail. Wide spread between the two is a result of that fictitious spot price you're gonna be reading up on.

    Again. Used car salesmen. And the sheep rush to get fleeced.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    while you're at it figure out the difference between spot price and real price. Something tells me that it's about to become even more important.

    Typical of you to show just a part of the story to push your typical false narrative. Let's take a look at the whole story:

    Nothing false. Dude cashed in his insurance policy and got spot. The rest of the story is irrelevant.

    Dude obviously didn't buy as insurance nor knew its value. Just another cash strapped speculator who got shaken from the tree. They fall out of the tree every day. The insured are standing on firm ground. Sorry you fell for the investment story. Next time you buy, do it for the right reason.

    Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 8,301 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Get a room !

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,086 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Well, Mr Jones, the wholesale price of your house is 150k. But dont worry, i wont charge you a commission and give i'll give 155k. I'll be ok though because i can flip it back for 240k.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bronco2078 said:
    Get a room !

    he can't afford his half, he sold everything at spot.

    Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    Well, Mr Jones, the wholesale price of your house is 150k. But dont worry, i wont charge you a commission and give i'll give 155k. I'll be ok though because i can flip it back for 240k.

    Like I said, wholesale vs. retail. If you have to dump your holdings at wholesale you should find another hobby. Try collecting coins.

    Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    These buyback prices on silver are making used car dealers look like saints!!

    Agree, the unknowing are being taken advantage of by dealers who are, as they have historically done, assigning "buy" value based on spot. After all, why not, it is the way they have always set a buy price. Growing premiums are now showing the error of that.

    Now that you agree that dealers paying spot is "making used car dealers look like saints," stop and think about what that really says about valuing physical metals using the price mechanism for paper futures. You finally find yourself admitting that the paper spot price mechanism is not the correct price mechanism for physical precious metals. You are making progress, baby steps.

    Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 23,591 ✭✭✭✭✭

    one could say this is a time when the physical as related to spot market is (very) not efficient.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:
    one could say this is a time when the physical as related to spot market is (very) not efficient.

    they are (and should be) disconnected. As long as speculators can buy/sell unbacked contracts, they are two entirely different products, each with their own, different, fundamentals.

    As far as the dealers paying spot goes, they will change they're price when sellers refuse it.

    Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 2,367 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Barron's headline:

    "The Dow Had Its Best Day Since 1933 on Hope That Congress Might Agree on a Stimulus Bill"

    Tells me QEver will blow another bubble. I'm not sure the air is out of this one just yet.

    What does it tell me? If I can't beat em join em??

  • derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The "Hopes and Maybes," a fine club to be in.

    Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

  • HJPHJP Posts: 403 ✭✭✭

    So, price discovery for physical bullion has been subdued by the future sales of metal by the miners?

  • HJPHJP Posts: 403 ✭✭✭

    Seems if this is true, the market has built in price manipulation- that is controlled by who buys/sells the future contracts from the miner...

  • HJPHJP Posts: 403 ✭✭✭

    But I guess you all know that

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,456 ✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    while you're at it figure out the difference between spot price and real price. Something tells me that it's about to become even more important.

    Typical of you to show just a part of the story to push your typical false narrative. Let's take a look at the whole story:

    Nothing false. Dude cashed in his insurance policy and got spot. The rest of the story is irrelevant.

    Dude obviously didn't buy as insurance nor knew its value. Just another cash strapped speculator who got shaken from the tree. They fall out of the tree every day. The insured are standing on firm ground. Sorry you fell for the investment story. Next time you buy, do it for the right reason.

    Hmmm, looks like the dude found out that insurance is worthless and actually reached a state of total consciousness,

    the obvious that is missed, is that cash is more of value than physical metal, this has already played out in the history of the precious markets especially in the darkest of financial times, thus more cash is needed to give in order to receive a piece of metal, which the white rabbit may deem as insurance, but maybe just a pet rock,

    then when trying to obtain this valuable commodity known as cash, one heads to the hookah-smoking caterpillar in order to face their fate and because they bring only a piece of metal, one gets what they deserve, which is way less cash, because who the heck wants a piece of metal that doesn’t talk back to you, or does anything else for that matter,

    The One-Eyed Jack who loudly proclaims in his kingdom that the value which can only be claimed by buying the precious at the higher kingdom declared disconnected price, well he himself will never pay that price, his people never find out, yet feel secure and safe, however he is the King in the Land of the Blind,

    A just young child cried out to the masses, the Precious wears no clothes...

    keceph `anah
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,086 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    These buyback prices on silver are making used car dealers look like saints!!

    Agree, the unknowing are being taken advantage of by dealers who are, as they have historically done, assigning "buy" value based on spot. After all, why not, it is the way they have always set a buy price. Growing premiums are now showing the error of that.

    Now that you agree that dealers paying spot is "making used car dealers look like saints," stop and think about what that really says about valuing physical metals using the price mechanism for paper futures. You finally find yourself admitting that the paper spot price mechanism is not the correct price mechanism for physical precious metals. You are making progress, baby steps.

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    These buyback prices on silver are making used car dealers look like saints!!

    Agree, the unknowing are being taken advantage of by dealers who are, as they have historically done, assigning "buy" value based on spot. After all, why not, it is the way they have always set a buy price. Growing premiums are now showing the error of that.

    Now that you agree that dealers paying spot is "making used car dealers look like saints," stop and think about what that really says about valuing physical metals using the price mechanism for paper futures. You finally find yourself admitting that the paper spot price mechanism is not the correct price mechanism for physical precious metals. You are making progress, baby steps.

    Dont forget these today.

    The unknowing are those paying $22-$25 for silver.

    I do see that dealers raised their buy prices (the true value) to about $1.75 over spot yesterday. So maybe that will lessen the blow to the retail sheeple.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 30,036 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DoubleEagle59 said:
    Such a topsy turvy economic world.

    The idea that 'we must borrow and go into debt, to stimulate the economy'.

    The present day logic is "with currency that isn't backed by anything, why not?"

    Can you imagine any economist or government official thinking of such a stupid idea pre 1970?

    I often wonder why don't thay just print 1 million dollars for each and everyone.

    It's crazy.

    I agree with Peter Schiff, that a depression is a cure to the economic cold (boom times).

    We should have had a depression back in 2000.

    But that was artificially prevented to happen.

    Then 2008 should have been a depression but that was artificially stopped.

    Now this.

    Trouble is, everytime we avert a depression, the next one becomes more severe.

    It is definitely a massive house of cards and I couldn't tell you (nor anyone else for that matter) if it will last for 50 days or 50 years.

    But when it blows up, it'll take every living investor with them.

    The only item(s) that will save you is owning and keeping your own Precious metals.

    Sometimes I feel I'm a dinosaur thinking this way.

    What would you do to fix this mess if it was YOUR call?

    Perhaps instead of a cash stimulus check the Government should give everyone in need 10 rolls of silver eagles.

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 27,788 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 25, 2020 10:40PM

    @rawteam1 said:

    ............. because who the heck wants a piece of metal that doesn’t talk back to you, or does anything else for that matter,

    Ahh, maybe Warren Buffet. Former holder of $1 BILL in silver from 1996-2006. Then find out why he sold out just before it tripled up. He owned about a much physical silver as the Hunts did back in the 1970's. Who's holding similar stock piles of silver today? Probably JPMorgan for one. None of these firms seemed to have been concerned about the communicative powers of silver. Last I checked silver has dozens of industrial uses from solar panels, to anti-bacterials in hospitals, to coatings in electronics. In a related matter, last BIS report showed the bullion banks carrying $750 BILL in gold otc derivative contracts - about 5 yrs worth of annual world gold production. It can't be a hedge.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 30,036 ✭✭✭✭✭

    One AP has dealer pricing for 1/10th AGEs at 15% over. Pretty much sold out of everything else.

  • BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 4,229 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    Many years ago my late Uncle use to you refer to Gov't spending as dealing in Monopoly money. I now know what he meant.

    Successful transactions:Tookybandit
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,456 ✭✭✭

    @roadrunner said:

    @rawteam1 said:

    ............. because who the heck wants a piece of metal that doesn’t talk back to you, or does anything else for that matter,

    Ahh, maybe Warren Buffet. Former holder of $1 BILL in silver from 1996-2006. Then find out why he sold out just before it tripled up. He owned about a much physical silver as the Hunts did back in the 1970's. Who's holding similar stock piles of silver today? Probably JPMorgan for one. None of these firms seemed to have been concerned about the communicative powers of silver. Last I checked silver has dozens of industrial uses from solar panels, to anti-bacterials in hospitals, to coatings in electronics.

    So does copper...

    keceph `anah
  • derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 31, 2020 2:55PM

    Let the printing begin.

    Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 28,360 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Headline of the Day, from the Wall Street Journal:

    (Easy Money) "Janet Yellen Says Too Much Corporate Borrowing Will Hinder Economic Recovery."

    Looks like physical metal is not only insurance for fiat dollars. All of a sudden it has become insurance for fiat futures. In the end, real economics always wins.

  • Anybody keeping track of all the new money? I know they were "injecting" $500 billion a day just for the repo market. Amazing how fast everything fell apart and suddenly no money. Apparently no one learned from the last time and a bunch of people were borrowing money at almost nothing and buying sketchy crap.

    If more money is good why don't they just give everyone a million dollars?

    Seems like the last 6 years of decent economy we could have lowered the debt and the deficit spending and maybe had more reasonable interest rates so people could have saved some money without all flocking to the stock market. Now we are already out of bullets.

    Now........Everything must go.

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