Perhaps, more people are realizing that metal is precious only because we BELIEVE it is.
The US$ is becoming more "precious" because more people want US$ than other currencies - this is likely to gain momentum as the Euro zone goes into public crash mode (as opposed to the slow destruction that has been going on for years in Europe).
As has been very well stated, the emperor is not wearing any clothes - only the illusion of value. How long will it take before more people realize the currency / fiat game is rigged and always has been.
the key point is that in any large transaction, physical silver changes hands at near spot. Therefore, if there is a disconnect, it is not between spot and physical, it is between large and small transactions.
There is a difference in the level of demand for not just quantity, but the type of physical, i.e. - the fabrication of smaller pieces accommodates a "sweet spot" in the current demand curve.
It appears that - as industrial demand has tapered off or crashed, the monetary component in the price of silver has re-asserted itself. cohodk might attribute this to emotion, fear or ignorance - while I would attribute it to common sense and prudence.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I apologize if this has been discussed, but are there force majeure clauses in futures contracts? If the mines are closed because of implications from a pandemic, can delivery contracts be enforced. I would think not, but I don't know.
@shorecoll said:
I apologize if this has been discussed, but are there force majeure clauses in futures contracts? If the mines are closed because of implications from a pandemic, can delivery contracts be enforced. I would think not, but I don't know.
The fact that the London exchange (LMBA) is having to help out COMEX by providing LMBA gold bars for COMEX delivery tells me "a contract is a contract."
The "premium" people are willing to pay or to charge for precious metals, iseems to be a direct measure of a human beings feeling of angst. The more angst, the higher the pain / price premium that one will endure.
HJP
@HJP said:
The "premium" people are willing to pay or to charge for precious metals, iseems to be a direct measure of a human beings feeling of angst. The more angst, the higher the pain / price premium that one will endure.
HJP
This phenomena is not exclusive to precious metals. Humans are a very predictable lot and can and will be exploited when emotions are high no matter the good or service.
@Higashiyama said:
There still seems to be a major misconception among many message board participants.
Here is a quiz question (T or F): When Samsung or the US Mint buy silver, they buy it at near spot. (or in the futures market, which is linked to spot)
The US Mint purchases blanks that have been already produced. Coeur d’Alene Mint in Idaho, I believe this is Sunshine Mint, is their one US source. There are contracts in place long in advance, assuming what the contracts are set at is hard to figure out. I doubt any mint sells quality and precision silver blanks for spot at the time of the order. Whatever manufacturers of non bullion products pay depends on the materials they require. No one is processing the raw silver for free. No mint would remain in business if not profitable. Look at the Mints annual reports, they do not make much on bullion products before costs let alone after.
So, if the Mint were to even purchase 1000oz bars at spot from the Crimex. Then what are the additional costs to pick it up, ship it to Idaho, and pay the mint there to process it into rounds - of then ship those rounds to the mint locations? That is the cost of the bullion rounds landed.
@isaiah58 : thanks, yes, everything you've outlined above is consistent with my prior assertions. The US mint acquires silver at or near spot; of course, there are production costs to produce blanks, so their cost is spot + transaction costs + manufacturing costs. The bottom line point: what they pay is directly linked to the financial markets; there is no disconnect.
I believe (though others should correct me if I'm wrong) that the mint sells silver eagles to their designated wholesalers at spot + $ 2.00, also directly linked to the financial markets -- no disconnect. Once these distributors begin to sell small quantities to the Higashiyamas and Isaiah58s of the world, mark-ups vary depending on supply and demand at the small consumer level. If you or others consider that to be a "disconnect", that's OK with me. But, it definitely does not indicate that trading of physical metal, in general, is disconnected from trading in the financial markets.
I believe (though others should correct me if I'm wrong) that the mint sells silver eagles to their designated wholesalers at spot + $ 2.00, also directly linked to the financial markets -- no disconnect. Once these distributors begin to sell small quantities to the Higashiyamas and Isaiah58s of the world, mark-ups vary depending on supply and demand at the small consumer level. If you or others consider that to be a "disconnect", that's OK with me. But, it definitely does not indicate that trading of physical metal, in general, is disconnected from trading in the financial markets.
Premiums are a part of purchasing physical metals and do not indicate a disconnect between spot price and physical price until premiums explode as they have recently done. Regardless of the reason (currently supply and demand),
there is a "disconnect" in progress between the "wholesale" paper price (spot) and retail price for physical metal. When retail price increases at a much faster rate than wholesale price then yes, there is a disconnect in progress. Likely temporary until supply rises and demand decreases.
@cohodk said:
Premiums on a commodity are stupid, yet stupidity is not at a premium.
So a medium rare steak placed in front of you ready for consumption should cost the same as it did when first cut from the cow?
You funny.
And not a premium to be found. Lol
Sure, no markup. The delivery guy, the cook and the waiter all worked for free. Plus the guy that owns the restaurant didn't need any markup for his overhead. You still funny.
@cohodk said:
Premiums on a commodity are stupid, yet stupidity is not at a premium.
So a medium rare steak placed in front of you ready for consumption should cost the same as it did when first cut from the cow?
You funny.
And not a premium to be found. Lol
Sure, no markup. The delivery guy, the cook and the waiter all worked for free. Plus the guy that owns the restaurant didn't need any markup for his overhead. You still funny.
Didnt all those folk need to paid 6 months ago? Same steak and no premium then.
But now there is a crisis so the peddlers can capitalize on their consumers fear. The ultimate scenario for the snake oil conman.
The "premium" people are willing to pay or to charge for precious metals, iseems to be a direct measure of a human beings feeling of angst. The more angst, the higher the pain / price premium that one will endure.
One of my axioms in sales has always been "you can't sell something to a person who doesn't need it or want it." One of the biggest wastes of time is to try and force a sale.
Dang it, Baley. I forgot to stock up on beer.
Come on over for a while, we have plenty. Accepting PMs and TP in barter. 😂
How much beer do you have stuck away, Baley? I can spare a few rolls of TP, but no way I'm buying beer with my PMs.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@cohodk said:
Premiums on a commodity are stupid, yet stupidity is not at a premium.
So a medium rare steak placed in front of you ready for consumption should cost the same as it did when first cut from the cow?
You funny.
And not a premium to be found. Lol
Sure, no markup. The delivery guy, the cook and the waiter all worked for free. Plus the guy that owns the restaurant didn't need any markup for his overhead. You still funny.
Didnt all those folk need to paid 6 months ago? Same steak and no premium then.
But now there is a crisis so the peddlers can capitalize on their consumers fear. The ultimate scenario for the snake oil conman.
Well played.
So now restaurant owners are snake oil con men? There's always been a premium over wholesale on items sold retail, especially if they come with added improvements such as cooked and served. If you don't like the premium get your own cow, cut it up, clean up the mess, then cook it, than clean up the mess, the eat it in, then clean up the mess.
You are trying to justify these insane markups are justifiable because there is a crisis and folks are scared. The process to get silver into ones hands is the same today as it was 6 months ago. But now you say premiums are the fault of all the middlemen. Shame on you. You are just capitalizing on a crisis, dont try to defend it. Just sell your trinkets to the ignorant.
BTW---I like cows. And im pretty good at doing my own butchering. I prefer venison though.
You are trying to justify these insane markups are justifiable because there is a crisis and folks are scared. The process to get silver into ones hands is the same today as it was 6 months ago. But now you say premiums are the fault of all the middlemen. Shame on you. You are just capitalizing on a crisis, dont try to defend it. Just sell your trinkets to the ignorant.
1) The markups are in line with the current market or the coins wouldn't be selling.
2) The process is different now. Much different.
3) The premiums are the fault of supply & demand for a precious metal, not the same as food & water or fuel. It's truly exhibiting it's monetary value now, and less it's industrial utility.
4) Capitalizing or possibly miscalculating? It's possible that silver will rise in value and then the "ignorant" will be seen as prescient.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
How about artificially constraining supply? Isnt that market manipulation. I think thats spelled the same no matter what the good or service or product or promise.
and jmski, this time is different? Come on now, how old are you? How many times have you seen this?
jmski, this time is different? Come on now, how old are you?
What's different is that JPM has actually been convicted of market manipulation. Still no jail time, but hey, it's a start.
Old enough to know something about the way things go down. What's different is that we now have the Fed picking winners & losers across the full spectrum of assets and there is virtually no price discovery going on. Even you should be a little bit concerned for yourself and your family over this.
How many times have you seen this?
I've seen other variations, but never anything this egregious.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Oh, so maybe you are beginning to recognize the real counterparty risk.
There's no counterparty risk in owning the precious metals. There's always transaction risk in any transaction, and there's market risk in holding an asset.
What you seem to be calling counterparty risk is that interval between payment for and receipt of the goods. That's not counterparty risk. That's transaction risk.
So, maybe it's a difference in semantics between us.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
spot price likely to decline in the short term as dollar index predictions for the short term have the DI moving from it's current 98.50 to up to 104.00.
Be interesting to see if premiums hold as spot falls. This will actually indicate an increase in premiums.
If you don't mind 1,000 oz. bars you can get it cheaper. There is a manufacturing cost in turning 1 bar into 1,000 rounds.
I worked at a PM mint, I know of what I speak. People's labor and the cost of heating furnaces is not free.
Comments
Perhaps, more people are realizing that metal is precious only because we BELIEVE it is.
The US$ is becoming more "precious" because more people want US$ than other currencies - this is likely to gain momentum as the Euro zone goes into public crash mode (as opposed to the slow destruction that has been going on for years in Europe).
As has been very well stated, the emperor is not wearing any clothes - only the illusion of value. How long will it take before more people realize the currency / fiat game is rigged and always has been.
Money or metal only has value when it is used.
Nor the wishful.
So whats changed? Oh, I know. Silver is up 20% in the last 4 days while trinkets havent budged.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Which price is the correct one ?:
The stable (physical) "trinkets" price ?
or
The erratic (paper) price ?
The one most desperate to make the trade is the party that doesn't set the price.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
both are correct, depends on which one you are buying/selling.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Would the former be a form of price fixing?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
the key point is that in any large transaction, physical silver changes hands at near spot. Therefore, if there is a disconnect, it is not between spot and physical, it is between large and small transactions.
There is a difference in the level of demand for not just quantity, but the type of physical, i.e. - the fabrication of smaller pieces accommodates a "sweet spot" in the current demand curve.
It appears that - as industrial demand has tapered off or crashed, the monetary component in the price of silver has re-asserted itself. cohodk might attribute this to emotion, fear or ignorance - while I would attribute it to common sense and prudence.
I knew it would happen.
This. Disconnect:
Provident's current premium is nearly $10 on the 2020 silver eagle that is still a minimum of two weeks out from shipping.!!
I apologize if this has been discussed, but are there force majeure clauses in futures contracts? If the mines are closed because of implications from a pandemic, can delivery contracts be enforced. I would think not, but I don't know.
The fact that the London exchange (LMBA) is having to help out COMEX by providing LMBA gold bars for COMEX delivery tells me "a contract is a contract."
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
The "premium" people are willing to pay or to charge for precious metals, iseems to be a direct measure of a human beings feeling of angst. The more angst, the higher the pain / price premium that one will endure.
HJP
This phenomena is not exclusive to precious metals. Humans are a very predictable lot and can and will be exploited when emotions are high no matter the good or service.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The US Mint purchases blanks that have been already produced. Coeur d’Alene Mint in Idaho, I believe this is Sunshine Mint, is their one US source. There are contracts in place long in advance, assuming what the contracts are set at is hard to figure out. I doubt any mint sells quality and precision silver blanks for spot at the time of the order. Whatever manufacturers of non bullion products pay depends on the materials they require. No one is processing the raw silver for free. No mint would remain in business if not profitable. Look at the Mints annual reports, they do not make much on bullion products before costs let alone after.
So, if the Mint were to even purchase 1000oz bars at spot from the Crimex. Then what are the additional costs to pick it up, ship it to Idaho, and pay the mint there to process it into rounds - of then ship those rounds to the mint locations? That is the cost of the bullion rounds landed.
@isaiah58 : thanks, yes, everything you've outlined above is consistent with my prior assertions. The US mint acquires silver at or near spot; of course, there are production costs to produce blanks, so their cost is spot + transaction costs + manufacturing costs. The bottom line point: what they pay is directly linked to the financial markets; there is no disconnect.
I believe (though others should correct me if I'm wrong) that the mint sells silver eagles to their designated wholesalers at spot + $ 2.00, also directly linked to the financial markets -- no disconnect. Once these distributors begin to sell small quantities to the Higashiyamas and Isaiah58s of the world, mark-ups vary depending on supply and demand at the small consumer level. If you or others consider that to be a "disconnect", that's OK with me. But, it definitely does not indicate that trading of physical metal, in general, is disconnected from trading in the financial markets.
Premiums are a part of purchasing physical metals and do not indicate a disconnect between spot price and physical price until premiums explode as they have recently done. Regardless of the reason (currently supply and demand),
there is a "disconnect" in progress between the "wholesale" paper price (spot) and retail price for physical metal. When retail price increases at a much faster rate than wholesale price then yes, there is a disconnect in progress. Likely temporary until supply rises and demand decreases.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Premiums on a commodity are stupid, yet stupidity is not at a premium.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Come on over for a while, we have plenty. Accepting PMs and TP in barter. 😂
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
on a related note, I think the fear premium is starting to run its course. Tubes of 20 ASEs are now available for $460 on eBay
So a medium rare steak placed in front of you ready for consumption should cost the same as it did when first cut from the cow?
You funny.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Interesting Kitco interview. George Gero provides great information as to why paper sold off and why the premiums did what they did.
https://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Kitco-NEWS/2766/2020-03-26/Is-it-too-late-to-buy-gold-We-ask-RBCs-George-Gero-Wall-Street-guru#48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DKitco-NEWS
And not a premium to be found. Lol
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Sure, no markup. The delivery guy, the cook and the waiter all worked for free. Plus the guy that owns the restaurant didn't need any markup for his overhead. You still funny.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Didnt all those folk need to paid 6 months ago? Same steak and no premium then.
But now there is a crisis so the peddlers can capitalize on their consumers fear. The ultimate scenario for the snake oil conman.
Well played.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The "premium" people are willing to pay or to charge for precious metals, iseems to be a direct measure of a human beings feeling of angst. The more angst, the higher the pain / price premium that one will endure.
One of my axioms in sales has always been "you can't sell something to a person who doesn't need it or want it." One of the biggest wastes of time is to try and force a sale.
Dang it, Baley. I forgot to stock up on beer.
Come on over for a while, we have plenty. Accepting PMs and TP in barter. 😂
How much beer do you have stuck away, Baley? I can spare a few rolls of TP, but no way I'm buying beer with my PMs.
I knew it would happen.
So now restaurant owners are snake oil con men? There's always been a premium over wholesale on items sold retail, especially if they come with added improvements such as cooked and served. If you don't like the premium get your own cow, cut it up, clean up the mess, then cook it, than clean up the mess, the eat it in, then clean up the mess.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
You brought up the restaurant owners, not me.
You are trying to justify these insane markups are justifiable because there is a crisis and folks are scared. The process to get silver into ones hands is the same today as it was 6 months ago. But now you say premiums are the fault of all the middlemen. Shame on you. You are just capitalizing on a crisis, dont try to defend it. Just sell your trinkets to the ignorant.
BTW---I like cows. And im pretty good at doing my own butchering. I prefer venison though.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You are trying to justify these insane markups are justifiable because there is a crisis and folks are scared. The process to get silver into ones hands is the same today as it was 6 months ago. But now you say premiums are the fault of all the middlemen. Shame on you. You are just capitalizing on a crisis, dont try to defend it. Just sell your trinkets to the ignorant.
1) The markups are in line with the current market or the coins wouldn't be selling.
2) The process is different now. Much different.
3) The premiums are the fault of supply & demand for a precious metal, not the same as food & water or fuel. It's truly exhibiting it's monetary value now, and less it's industrial utility.
4) Capitalizing or possibly miscalculating? It's possible that silver will rise in value and then the "ignorant" will be seen as prescient.
I knew it would happen.
PM dealers are price gouging? LOL. It's not like PMs are a necessity. PM prices justify themselves because they get determined in the marketplace.
Welcome to the world of supply and demand. You obviously have been sheltered from it by your FED benefactor.
Baby steps:
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
How about artificially constraining supply? Isnt that market manipulation. I think thats spelled the same no matter what the good or service or product or promise.
and jmski, this time is different? Come on now, how old are you? How many times have you seen this?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
How about artificially creating unlimited paper supply. Isn't that market manipulation?
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I love when folk comment like that. It says so much.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
jmski, this time is different? Come on now, how old are you?
What's different is that JPM has actually been convicted of market manipulation. Still no jail time, but hey, it's a start.
Old enough to know something about the way things go down. What's different is that we now have the Fed picking winners & losers across the full spectrum of assets and there is virtually no price discovery going on. Even you should be a little bit concerned for yourself and your family over this.
How many times have you seen this?
I've seen other variations, but never anything this egregious.
I knew it would happen.
Oh, so maybe you are beginning to recognize the real counterparty risk.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Oh, so maybe you are beginning to recognize the real counterparty risk.
There's no counterparty risk in owning the precious metals. There's always transaction risk in any transaction, and there's market risk in holding an asset.
What you seem to be calling counterparty risk is that interval between payment for and receipt of the goods. That's not counterparty risk. That's transaction risk.
So, maybe it's a difference in semantics between us.
I knew it would happen.
Nope...you hit on it when you said "price discovery".
While that blob of metal may have value to everyone, not everyone will give it the same value.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
That is not counter party risk. That's the market at work, the way it is supposed to work.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Perception of risk is determined by price discovery.
Transaction risk is inherent.
Humans are biased.
Caveat emptor.
You still dont it. And such a simple concept too.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm still waiting with baited breath to know how cohodk defines counterparty risk.
His risk calculations must be a mind-bender!
I knew it would happen.
He who does not know or cannot comprehend, or who is so bound by conviction is surely to be exploited or manipulated.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This.
He who does not know or cannot comprehend, or who is so bound by conviction is surely to be exploited or manipulated.
This.
I suppose that my success in precious metals over the past 40 years has been a delusion, but probably not.
I knew it would happen.
Confusion Says.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
spot price likely to decline in the short term as dollar index predictions for the short term have the DI moving from it's current 98.50 to up to 104.00.
Be interesting to see if premiums hold as spot falls. This will actually indicate an increase in premiums.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Condescend much?
If you don't mind 1,000 oz. bars you can get it cheaper. There is a manufacturing cost in turning 1 bar into 1,000 rounds.
I worked at a PM mint, I know of what I speak. People's labor and the cost of heating furnaces is not free.
Not a delusion jmski.
T> @davidk said:
Yup. The beatings shall continue until morale improves.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Not a delusion jmski, as we all measure success differently.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
it seems there is a disconnect between just out of the ground oil and the futures contract oil as seen in the news.
watch this video and be amazed at the numbers
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/30/crude-prices-are-headed-to-single-digits-rapidan-energys-mcnally.html
@MsMorrisine : interesting video.
Maybe we should have invested in oil storage facilities; the price will come back some day!