How strong are we?
doubledragon
Posts: 23,269 ✭✭✭✭✭
Compared to it's peak in popularity of the past, how strong is the hobby today? Are we heading for the summit of Mt. Everest?
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I think we will be heading the other direction for a little while. I am expecting prices to tumble as we deal with the COVID-19.
I think it wont make too big of an impact of prices. Still early to really see any impact besides the Gary Vee pump and dump cards but other than that, prices remain strong.
Will be falling off the mountain with COVID-19
For every person who might be making less money due to work reduction and therefore spending less on cards, there is another who is at the computer making impulse purchases when they normally may not have. I think the two situations counterbalance each other for an end result that keeps things relatively steady.
I think impact will be dependent on how long we have to remain hunkered down. If it's a month or two, the recovery should be quick. If it extends longer, we may be looking at a recession that lasts for a while longer.
I think it will be short term, no worries here.
chaz
The baseballbug will bite some collectors a little later than usual this year. That may slow some sales for a short time. Otherwise, things should remain relatively normal.
I have been in this hobby for forty+ years and find that it ebbs and flows like most everything else. I have heard people preach on the gloom and doom and how this hobby cannot survive much longer and then I hear about how strong the hobby is especially with all the shiny cards being purchased now.
Like stamp and coin collecting, this hobby will survive but will pass through many iterations. Just continue to collect as you like and allow it to provide you fun and entertainment. If and when it fails to provide you fun and entertainment, well then you know it is probably time to get out.
I could not agree more.
I also agree 100% with @mccardguy1. Ever since I got into the hobby in the 80"s, people have been saying "collapse is in the future because the hobby is just a fad, or the economy, or because of fraud, or no new collectors and now, Coronavirus." I think this hobby has become very solid, more so than stamps, coins, etc...Baseball will be played as long as the USA exists.
With the current COVID-19 situation escalating at a pretty good pace now, the hobby will likely stall for a bit and appear to crash like a stunt plane would at least in some areas of the hobby. The ebb and flow of collecting.
Currently seeking 1975 Hostess panels
Got one, two, more? Let me know!!
I have several eBay auctions scheduled to go live for the rest of this month. If I take a loss I will list only buy it now/ best offers for the remaining months of this downward spiral. I hope this recession does not become a depression.
Couple of sets I am working on recently have had multiple listings for cards that usually only come up once every few months. Likely it is people selling to make ends meet with some of the stuff they have had. With the added availability combined with the fact so many people are out of work temporarily, it will be interesting to see what the cards sell for as compare to other auctions over the past few months
Boston strong
20% short term unemployment is obviously going to have an impact and a lot of these jobs aren’t coming back. Tens of thousands of restaurants and lodging establishments, and the businesses that support them - food service, janitorial, fleet, software - are going to get wiped out. We are headed into a deep recession.
I’m honestly surprised how bullish people seem to be. I think a lot of folks are not understanding what is going on here.
The idea that this could or will be short term is incredibly naive. We have serious structural issues that are about to be exposed - the economy is completely debt financed.
I hope I’m wrong and sorry for being a doomer but I am very close to the merchant market and what we are seeing is catastrophic. We should all be lucky to wake up and have jobs on May 1st. Eveyone save for liquor, grocery, Amazon, pharma/ health care and a few other market segments is going to impacted. Unfortunately gov’ts, corps and individuals didn’t save for a rainy day and we are all about to pay the piper.
I totally disagree. You forget that there are viable drug cocktails out there right now that are in testing NOW. The preliminary results are very good for slowing down the virus especially in France not to mention our own efforts to dampen the curve by staying home and practicing good hygiene. New testing with 45 minute results and the government stimulus packages are going to help too. So I would not be so sure that this pandemic is total doom and gloom.
chaz
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-jobless-rate-may-soar-to-30-in-2q
Unemployment during the Great Depression was 24%.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
You are comparing 2 totally different time periods. This downturn will be short lived and once we get some good news that this virus is slowing and it will slow down and finally stop, things are going to through the roof!
chaz
I hope you're right.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Well I hope you are right. But consider that this started in late Nov 2019 and we still can’t even get testing in place. Meaning, unless you are high risk or deathly ill, if you go to your local hospital with Covid like symptoms, you will be sent home un tested.
So I find it hard to believe a vaccine, that has a 10 month dev cycle, will be in place in 90 days when in the same time period we can’t even get testing or respirators online.
While I appreciate the optimism and hope you are right, what I see from inside corp America is significant layoffs and a restructuring of the economy. This IMO is the big one.
Unemployment filings are gonna go from 250,000 this week to 2.25 million next week according to most every national economist. 1 of every 5 workers in the United States has either lost their job or had their hours reduced in since the end of January. Many economists are predicting that 75% of all independent restaurants and bars will go under if this lasts more than 3-4 weeks. Most small businesses are leveraged pretty heavily and survive based on each month's sales. The reason the federal government is putting together a 1.4 trillion rescue package is because in about 4 weeks, a good chunk of Americans won't be able to eat. There are currently 50-60 airliners parked at our local airport because American Airlines has no customers to fly, and there are about 50 more on their way. American is parking about 450 jets, with no idea when they will fly again. They aren't the only ones. United, Delta, Continental, and all the rest of them are doing the same thing. 1/4 Americans has been placed on lockdown by their mayors, and that number is only going to grow. Most states are right now predicting that students will not go back to class until August. Which causes enormous child care issues for hourly workers who depend on schools to take care of their kids while they work.
For anyone who thinks this is no big deal and will soon pass, you are, respectfully, badly interpreting every indicator. This is bad and will get worse. It will pass eventually. The only question is how much damage it will do to the U.S. and the global economies before it does. Our little hobby is probably, for many people, the least of our concerns. It will continue, and it will thrive again. But we are in for a rough patch for the next few months.
kevin
(not normally a negative Nancy, but sheesh!)
Never said it was no big deal. All we need is some good news from the drug cocktail (Testing starts this Tuesday Morning in New York) that will slow and finally stop this thing. I believe we will recover fast and watch out when we do!
chaz
mrvgex Posts: 42 ✭✭✭
March 22, 2020 8:46PM
How is it that other countries, South Korea in particular, are so far ahead of us in testing? They’re testing something like 15,000 people a day.
Ok, this is the point where this thing began to get political. I am ok with the discussion continuing as long as it does not lead into arguments and/or a political issue. - edited by Todd