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The Sh*t hits the fan and precious metals falls like rocks...

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  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,660 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    yes, i made some good moves recently with the physical and with the equities. Don't act like it's so impossible. If you two had your eyes on the ball and not on the cheerleader you could have done the same.

    we need new trolls, these are getting stale.

    No, seriously, yay for you!

    You're far better at this
    than any of us.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,894 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @rawteam1 said:

    @mariner67 said:
    Despite all the jawboning excuses here.....sad testimony for PMs being a safe haven insurance policy. Not as many expected or hoped for here.

    What? You mean derryb has been wrong this whole time?... unfathomable...

    Hi @derryb did you get rich yet? If so CONGRATS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 16, 2020 7:01PM

    Outrageous premiums simply reflect an unwillingness to sell unless the hedge pays off.

    Apmex - $100 face of 90% silver @ 69% premium - not gonna happen.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • bidaskbidask Posts: 14,017 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @AUandAG said:
    explain that.

    bob :)

    Maybe silver and gold is overvalued like everything else

    in times like these cash is king

    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    For the record....

    In this down market, Apmex lists the gold spot price $7.00 to $10.00 higher than anywhere else, and the silver spot price about $0.20 higher than anyone else.

    This is apart from the high markups on their non-existent metals for sale.

    Let's see how they quote spot prices compared to everywhere else during an up market.

    It appears that they are padding their spreads in a questionable manner that isn't readily apparent to the casual or first-time buyer.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    For the record....

    In this down market, Apmex lists the gold spot price $7.00 to $10.00 higher than anywhere else, and the silver spot price about $0.20 higher than anyone else.

    This is apart from the high markups on their non-existent metals for sale.

    Let's see how they quote spot prices compared to everywhere else during an up market.

    It appears that they are padding their spreads in a questionable manner that isn't readily apparent to the casual or first-time buyer.

    and how much cheaper are their major competitors? Is it possible all of the major players refuse to honor the paper price?

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    edited March 17, 2020 1:07PM

    Yeah...we always hear after the fact what everyone should have done or had the opportunity to do.
    Not buying it.....if anyone is so good at making money in PMs lets see your call now. Not after the fact.
    So...how about derryB tell us IN ADVANCE right here what he is doing RIGHT BEFORE he executes his next trade. Shouldn’t be any concerns here among friends.
    Step up. We are all ears.

    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    anyone is so good at making money in PMs lets see your call now. Not after the fact.

    Buy silver around $12.50 spot if you can find it. But, you won't be able to find it.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Outrageous premiums simply reflect an unwillingness to sell unless the hedge pays off.

    Apmex - $100 face of 90% silver @ 69% premium - not gonna happen.

    Whats the difference between this and selling hand sanitizer for $20 a bottle?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 18, 2020 1:59AM

    @mariner67 said:
    Yeah...we always hear after the fact what everyone should have done or had the opportunity to do.
    Not buying it.....if anyone is so good at making money in PMs lets see your call now. Not after the fact.
    So...how about derryB tell us IN ADVANCE right here what he is doing RIGHT BEFORE he executes his next trade. Shouldn’t be any concerns here among friends.
    Step up. We are all ears.

    For the record we are not friends here, we only share a common interest in the same things. That said, respect for others in a public forum still has its place.

    Not the first time I've been called a liar by a PM forum poster. Won't be the last. For the record:

    I am constantly buying and selling physical PMs. I don't normally offer up that info as I assume the smart ones here do the same, at the right time. Occasionally I will chime in with "I'm a buyer" to provide my two cents when a question is asked "should I buy?" It is no secret that I am, on the dips, a buyer and long term stacker of ASE tubes/boxes. I know the day is coming when silver prices will no longer be held down.

    For non physical, as do others here, I have tried to share what I consider good investment opportunities and as many know I am a big fan of using easy to trade ETFs to make my paper plays. I will try to not make that mistake again, since there's always some thankless doubter, who missed the boat, thinking I should answer to him.

    For my most recent action (TVIX) I shared an upcoming home run numerous times. I did so in hopes the open minded ones would look into it as a possible good trade candidate. I would tell you to be smarter next time, but you have ensured there won't be a next time. Not from me anyway.

    For the record:

    Posted 12/9, 9:11 PM "Got TVIX?"

    Posted 12/13, 10:08 AM. "Got TVIX"

    Posted 1/1 1:48 PM. "TVIX, all in" (since I was going heavy into it I made it my annual contest pick as well, knowing that, unlike the real world, I was stuck with a volatile ETF that will not hold up until the end of the contest.)

    Posted 2/28 1007 PM to "Anyone have any good stock picks during this freefall?" My answer "TVIX"

    Posted 3/9 to "I'll be picking up some more stock actually." My answer "TVIX maybe? Since I re-positioned a few weeks ago. . . "

    As for me posting my specific trades as they occur - none of you fkg business.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I consider myself to be friends with many on this forum, several ive met in person. I hope thats a mutual feeling, but if not, its all good.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    and how much cheaper are their major competitors? Is it possible all of the major players refuse to honor the paper price?

    Does that sound like a cartel? Like collusion? Like manipulation?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,894 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:
    Outrageous premiums simply reflect an unwillingness to sell unless the hedge pays off.

    Apmex - $100 face of 90% silver @ 69% premium - not gonna happen.

    Whats the difference between this and selling hand sanitizer for $20 a bottle?

    Stacking hand sanitizer would have been the more profitable hedge?

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 17, 2020 5:03PM

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    and how much cheaper are their major competitors? Is it possible all of the major players refuse to honor the paper price?

    Does that sound like a cartel? Like collusion? Like manipulation?

    Price fixing is a federal offense. Send the FBI your proof. If guilty these dealers will be treated much different than the CRIMEX COMEX conspirators.

    Speaking of price fixing don't you find it strange that gasoline prices are pretty much the same where ever you go, and when one goes up or down the others are so quick to follow? How about realtor fees, a good example of price fixing.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    and how much cheaper are their major competitors? Is it possible all of the major players refuse to honor the paper price?

    Does that sound like a cartel? Like collusion? Like manipulation?

    Price fixing is a federal offense. Send the FBI your proof. If guilty these dealers will be treated much different than the CRIMEX COMEX conspirators.

    Speaking of price fixing don't you find it strange that gasoline prices are pretty much the same where ever you go, and when one goes up or down the others are so quick to follow? How about realtor fees, a good example of price fixing.

    Do gas prices go up when gas futures go down?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm not talking about collusion between the sellers of the physical stuff and the sellers of the paper stuff. I'm talking about collusion among the sellers of the physical stuff.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    I'm not talking about collusion between the sellers of the physical stuff and the sellers of the paper stuff. I'm talking about collusion among the sellers of the physical stuff.

    Indeed it does look like collusion among the sellers of the physical stuff.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    I'm not talking about collusion between the sellers of the physical stuff and the sellers of the paper stuff. I'm talking about collusion among the sellers of the physical stuff.

    Indeed it does look like collusion among the sellers of the physical stuff.

    But, according to you, it never looks like collusion among the sellers of the paper stuff? LOL

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Whats the difference between this and selling hand sanitizer for $20 a bottle?

    I haven't been a buyer of hand sanitizer @ $20/bottle.

    Interestingly, I did read about the effectiveness of regular bar soap and water - because of the polarity of the virus molecule and that of bar soap, bar soap is the most effective option for decontaminating your skin. Better than alcohol.

    Might not be as effective while riding in the car, so just don't touch your face until you get home and wash up.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 18, 2020 4:44AM

    For my most recent action (TVIX) I shared an upcoming home run numerous times. I did so in hopes the open minded ones would look into it as a possible good trade candidate. I would tell you to be smarter next time, but you have ensured there won't be a next time. Not from me anyway.

    From my own point of view, I hope that you don't back away from sharing your thoughts, derryb - just as I hope that the forum doesn't chase away guys like cohodk & Baley. I may not research things like TVIX or participate in that type of speculation, but having exposure to differing viewpoints and convictions is critical to maintaining an even keel in these wild markets.

    Nice call on the TVIX.

    Also, I wouldn't turn down the prospect of a friendship. Call me old fashioned.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 18, 2020 5:23AM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    I'm not talking about collusion between the sellers of the physical stuff and the sellers of the paper stuff. I'm talking about collusion among the sellers of the physical stuff.

    Indeed it does look like collusion among the sellers of the physical stuff.

    But, according to you, it never looks like collusion among the sellers of the paper stuff? LOL

    But, according to you, it never looks like collusion among the sellers of the physical stuff? LOL

    Yes. Imitation is flattery.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    it never looks like collusion among the sellers of the physical stuff? LOL

    The sellers of physical stuff actually have to possess the goods and make delivery.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 18, 2020 6:05AM

    @jmski52 said:
    it never looks like collusion among the sellers of the physical stuff? LOL

    The sellers of physical stuff actually have to possess the goods and make delivery.

    So they are inflating (manipulating) the price on stuff they dont have? Hmmmm. LOL

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • shorecollshorecoll Posts: 5,445 ✭✭✭✭✭

    "Stacking hand sanitizer would have been the more profitable hedge?"

    Tell that to the guy who got stuck with 77,000 bottles when eBay blocked sales. Lol.

    ANA-LM, NBS, EAC
  • rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭✭

    @shorecoll said:
    "Stacking hand sanitizer would have been the more profitable hedge?"

    Tell that to the guy who got stuck with 77,000 bottles when eBay blocked sales. Lol.

    Well, it's still more useful than gold or silver. As we are witnessing currently.

    In Blockade, Anna Eisenmenger wrote about trading a gold watch for a few bags of food (maybe all potatos?). Who got the best of that deal?

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 18, 2020 1:11PM

    My three cents:

    Metals are suffering because there is a liquidity crisis and there is a massive rush to dollars for many reasons that include margin calls, uncertainty and hopes of repurchasing sold assets at lower prices. The "law of dollar supply and demand" is driving the dollar up, with the dollar index being one of very few things showing gains. While gold normally has an inverse relationship with dollar strength (and continues to do so), a lot of paper gold holders are cashing in for paper dollars, driving spot prices down on the futures exchanges. It appears those who think they are holding enough dollars are taking advantage of lower spot prices (even with higher premiums) and converting some of their excess dollars into into physical metals, creating the strong physical demand in the face of falling paper prices. The important take away here is to use only excess dollars for current physical purchases - cash is currently king and will remain that way until the dust settles (re: 2009).

    The good news is that markets appear to be working on their own. Regardless of the temporary pain, let's hope it stays that way. The bad news is it never stays that way.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MilesWaits said:
    Would it be possible to limit the use of LOL to the ration of one a day?
    Maybe It could be replaced with something less over-used like “that’s funny” or “good try” or In the case of this thread “I disagree with you”.

    good try

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • zski123zski123 Posts: 256 ✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @rawteam1 said:

    @mariner67 said:
    Despite all the jawboning excuses here.....sad testimony for PMs being a safe haven insurance policy. Not as many expected or hoped for here.

    What? You mean derryb has been wrong this whole time?... unfathomable...

    sold at $18, reloading at $12.

    "unfathomable."

    Calling BS on derryb! You are absolutely not sourcing silver at $12. You're the only one then with a "connection".

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 18, 2020 5:53PM

    @zski123 said:

    @derryb said:

    @rawteam1 said:

    @mariner67 said:
    Despite all the jawboning excuses here.....sad testimony for PMs being a safe haven insurance policy. Not as many expected or hoped for here.

    What? You mean derryb has been wrong this whole time?... unfathomable...

    sold at $18, reloading at $12.

    "unfathomable."

    Calling BS on derryb! You are absolutely not sourcing silver at $12. You're the only one then with a "connection".

    No I am not, clarification is in order. I sold some tubes at around $18 spot and started reloading at close to $12 spot. Didn't consider the need to be specific since all other discussion is focusing on spot.

    Hopefully spot won't go low enough for us to be able to actually buy ASEs for $12.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jclovescoinsjclovescoins Posts: 1,911 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It seems the price for physical ASE is now higher at $12 spot than it was at $18 spot. Well, doesn’t seem...it definitely is. I bought 1500 ASE at Spot of 16.99 for 18.99/each. Still waiting for delivery from SD Bullion

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 18, 2020 6:09PM

    @jclovescoins said:
    It seems the price for physical ASE is now higher at $12 spot than it was at $18 spot. Well, doesn’t seem...it definitely is. I bought 1500 ASE at Spot of 16.99 for 18.99/each. Still waiting for delivery from SD Bullion

    Likely has a lot to do with how much the seller had tied up in them. They could easily be making less profit selling at $12 spot vs $16.99 spot. Many dealers will not offer up the product for anything less than they have tied in it unless cash flow is more important than profit.

    Most dealers don't have inventory that was bought at $12 or lower spot. They've got to price it based on what they paid for it.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 19, 2020 7:35AM

    Similar situation to 1929 and 2008. Gold and PMs got hit with everything else until things settled. Gold came back first and recovered the fastest. Even in 2008 following the March $1033 high gold make 2 later excursions back to $900 in July and Sept. The bottom came in October 2008. Gold only spent 2 months in the trough of sub-$900. Oil bottomed in Dec 2008. The SM didn't bottom until March 2009. Despite all the liquidity injections to boost the SM from 2009-2011, it was PMs and miners that were best performers (similarly miners in 1932-1936...and gold had it not been fixed at $35/oz). Gold advanced from $681 to $1923 from Oct 2008 - Nov 2011....almost a triple. Silver did about 6X. The SM? About 60% in that same period. The USDollar was a safe haven as were bonds. Eventually the PM sector was a safe haven.

    Wedges matter. 2018-2020 DOW 5 wave wedge reached.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭

    For those who do not remember or were too young to remember, this is what the popping of bubbles looks like.

    This is the bust side of bust/boom cycles created by decades of bad central bank action. Yet here we are, once again, looking for a central bank that helped get us into this mess to swoop in and get us out of it. When will we learn.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    So they are inflating (manipulating) the price on stuff they dont have? Hmmmm. LOL

    cohodk, reading comprehension is important. Please review what I stated.

    Roadrunner, it's GREAT to see you back again!!!!!!!!

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 19, 2020 6:43AM

    @roadrunner said:
    Similar situation to 1929 and 2008. Gold and PMs got hit with everything else until things settled. Gold came back first and recovered the fastest.

    And now is a good time to be researching the paper plays (mining stocks, mining indices and ETFs) that will put one in a position to profit from a PM recovery. Those who saw the Wall St. carnage coming were ready to make their move, be ready to make yours with PMs. If you don't have an on-line brokerage account as a vehicle, it's a good time to open and fund one. If you have the funds, be ready to strike. Being ready also means fully understanding the paper products you are considering.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    And now is a good time to be researching the paper plays (mining stocks, mining indices and ETFs) that will put one in a position to profit from a PM recovery.

    derryb, I was just thinking that this morning. You're a half step ahead of me. But, that's not unusual. :)

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,571 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 19, 2020 6:31PM

    I didn't read above posts other than OP.

    No real difference with late 2008 and similar result. Stocks, foreign currencies and illiquid lower quality debt are crashing along with declining metals. The dollar is going up, again. Primary difference I see is action in US treasuries.

    Upcoming? Falling real estate prices along with higher unemployment and a more noticeable economic contraction.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    So they are inflating (manipulating) the price on stuff they dont have? Hmmmm. LOL

    cohodk, reading comprehension is important. Please review what I stated.

    I wish to you is to see more than the obvious.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You don't think it's easier to manipulate something when you aren't held accountable to actually own it when you sell it?

    Seems more than obvious to me.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    You don't think it's easier to manipulate something when you aren't held accountable to actually own it when you sell it?

    Whether its easier or not is irrelevant as thats not the issue.

    Price gouging occurs whether you have the product or not. Price gouging is exploiting fear. Certain beliefs tend to be more deeply rooted in fear than others are therefore for easily maniplulated and exploited.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    How many times have "certain beliefs" been proven to be true? The problem is that the manipulators who were convicted haven't gone to jail.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,123 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    How many times have "certain beliefs" been proven to be true?

    Many times less than have been exploited or manipulated. The greater ones conviction of beliefs, the greater their protensity to be exploited.

    Its all about the confidence man. The more he tells you what you want to hear, the more he will sell you, and the greater advocate for his services you will become.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • taxmadtaxmad Posts: 978 ✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:

    Its all about the confidence man. The more he tells you what you want to hear, the more he will sell you, and the greater advocate for his services you will become.

    sounds the the government...

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 20, 2020 6:11AM

    @taxmad said:

    @cohodk said:

    @jmski52 said:

    Its all about the confidence man. The more he tells you what you want to hear, the more he will sell you, and the greater advocate for his services you will become.

    sounds the the government...

    coho, the advocate. I like it.

    "Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,849 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Its all about the confidence man. The more he tells you what you want to hear, the more he will sell you, and the greater advocate for his services you will become.

    Spoken like a true expert on the subject.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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