Coronavirus Impact on the Hobby, Your Thoughts?
detroitfan2
Posts: 3,337 ✭✭✭✭
Yesterday on the local sports radio, one of the hosts said he felt like spring had been cancelled. That got me to wondering how (if at all) the coronavirus will impact your participation in our great hobby. I think many of us will have a lot more of our leisure time freed up with no sports to watch. Maybe that time could be spent enjoying cards, organizing, ripping, etc.
Also curious how card sales will be. Many people will be impacted financially by everything that is going on, so that could make it a buyers' market. Also feel like maybe some of the "hype" around current stars and rookies (Luka, Morant, etc.) may die down with no post-season, perhaps no awards, etc. Is it possible that sports could become "out of sight, out of mind" within a few weeks?
Comments
Since cards are the epitome of discretionary, I expect sales (and prices) to drop. For others, this could be a prime time to buy. Others look at cards as an investment, but look how the stock market is performing. I think it will shortly become a buyers’ market in our hobby.
Yaz Master Set
#1 Gino Cappelletti master set
#1 John Hannah master set
Also collecting Andre Tippett, Patriots Greats' RCs, Dwight Evans, 1964 Venezuelan Topps, 1974 Topps Red Sox
If my win last night is any indication, it already is.
I will divert money into investing. The markets are way down, even though my portfolio has dropped bad, it is a good buying opportunity. I also expect an income drop for a bit, not enough to cause us financial hardship, but I tend to be cautious, you usually end up better than you thought that way.
I have kind of put card buying on pause for right now. I have plenty to organize and sort. It would be good to focus on that for a while as I have box after box of cards that need to be catalogued. If a great deal pops up, I will consider it however.
There is a frenzy, the stores are being cleaned out of toilet paper here in Canada this week. People are going nuts. I am glad that we keep a stock pile as we load up when it is on sale. Now people are buying out the grocery stores. It seems like Costco has become the unofficial pandemic panic store.
I will be doing less socializing and going to events, so I will probably end up buying more than I usually do on Ebay, as I will have more time for my hobby...until mandatory overtime comes up, as I work at a large academic teaching hospital.
Will hold all cards for now. Was planning on doing some selling prior to the current crisis. But will ride the wave for now. If there are some really great bargains for wax out there will probably scratch the itch to buy/rip.
At some point expect to see Coronavirus special labeled sales on Ebay.
Judging by the general reaction, we will all be dead within the next few hours, so who cares?
I think people should exude caution, but getting frenzied about it is beyond necessary. I'll only start getting real concerned if I start seeing troops with baby blue helmets stamped with U.N. on it walking down my street because they need to quell the spread of COVID-19.
In terms of the impact on the hobby, oh yeah, as has already been mentioned in this thread. But I didn't even consider the chance that some prices may come down. Hmmm? That may yield some good opportunities for all of us.
Currently seeking 1975 Hostess panels
Got one, two, more? Let me know!!
I just came across a PSA 10 Cottonelle PSA 10 square.
If buying really does substantially slow, expect some deals from eBay.
Yaz Master Set
#1 Gino Cappelletti master set
#1 John Hannah master set
Also collecting Andre Tippett, Patriots Greats' RCs, Dwight Evans, 1964 Venezuelan Topps, 1974 Topps Red Sox
PWCCOVID-19
Kris
My 1971 Topps adventure - Davis Men in Black
Generally speaking, a lot of people in our hobby are lucky to have good jobs and incomes. Even on a “budget”, this is an expensive hobby. In the short term I think the impact is limited, if companies start layoffs in the salaried space, then we may see a significant downturn.
Precious metals downturn during a massive stock selloff tells me a lot of higher end guys had to liquidate to cover overextended positions. Marquee and especially rare pieces are likely safe regardless, but I expect a large portion of the card market to be down (either/both in price/volume) over the foreseeable future. The next 12 months, at least, will be very interesting for investing with cards not recovering for a while after traditional.
I can see volume slowing down. Prices depend if people need the cash for something else.
Like someone mentioned earlier, I’ve been slowly downsizing my collection, not for cash, but for focus. I’ve bought a lot over the years and need the space!
How many ply.
willing to trade for a PSA 9 1971 OPC Ken Dryden or PSA 9 1971 OPC Guy LaFleur
I hope unopened goes up in availability and down in price. And that I still have a job.
I haven't seen any impact on unopened prices yet. Would like to buy more if possible as this is short term imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
That's just in house have lots more in storage
I was concerned about the PSA office. What if they decide to close and send all of the staff home? What happens to all of the submissions? I'm sure there is going to be some ungodly long delays in processing. I wanted to send some cards in for grading but I don't want them just sitting in a closed business. Somehow I think this virus is going to affect the hobby a lot in the coming weeks.
This doesn't exactly look like a give away.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1955-Topps-Roberto-Clemente-ROOKIE-RC-164-PSA-8-NM-MT-PWCC/352990161555?hash=item522fda6a93:g:BIAAAOSwGg5eXaOd
This sale makes me sick because I remember when this card was just breaking a grand.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/114137086346?_trksid=p2471758.m4704
A BGS 9.5 Jordan brings 21k
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1986-1987-Fleer-Michael-Jordan-57-Rookie-Card-BGS-9-5-GEM-MINT-Like-PSA-10/293421588375?epid=97258201&hash=item44514a1f97:g:UMgAAOSwKFNeG9oG
PSA 2 Mantle goes for over 20k
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1952-Topps-Mickey-Mantle-311-PSA-2-GD-PWCC-A/143545997303?hash=item216c0217f7:g:~EMAAOSwz2VeXZu1
The hobby isn't slowing down. There are so many collectors that aren't worried about the stock market and it doesn't influence their purchase decisions. I have long argued that hard assets are very attractive to many because regardless of price you still own it.
The wrestling card niche that I am involved in saw explosive auction prices on the last batch of cards that were auctioned off this week. Shockingly high prices. They aren't multi thousand dollar cards but some up 400% or more from prior comps.
Not everyone gets killed when the market falls. I had my biggest trade ever last week and I am kicking myself for not making the same trade yesterday that would have been incredible today. If I want to go hard after a card I am in my best position ever financially and there will be no impact from this virus on my bidding.
Cash flow is king so the issue will be employment trends and in my view this is a multi month issue and the country will come roaring back.
Most of the best cards don't come available frequently and so it is doubtful they will be offered during this time and so even if prices were to dip they won't on the best stuff.
I posted a handful of higher profile cards and I don't see any issues with their prices.
Come to think of it, it's been quite a while since I've seen even an eBay bucks offer from them.
Currently Collecting:
Flickr: https://flickr.com/gp/184724292@N07/686763
Once this crisis passes and for those folks who stockpiled toilet paper by the case, there will be many cases of "unopened" TP for months to come.
Above all the other noise, I hear a lot of whistling past the graveyard, and the unmistakable thump of a dead cat bounce.
IMO ... it'll be a short term blip..... economy underneath it all is way too strong with low rates and mortgages...more refinancing's coming as well..... I'd be buying the stock market here for the immediate future ....NOT collectibles. Happy bottom feeding .
Sports card and memorabilia shows will be affected for a short period of time, as will the enjoyment of listening to and watching sports on the radio and television. It should all return to normal by the summer. PAB 1969 makes a good point about PSA. I did not consider that. They have 15 of my Star Wars cards. I hope to get them back soon.
I take it you eat a lot of fiber.
Does anyone remember the old SNL commercial for "Colonblow" cereal - I think from the Phil Hartman era?
Yes and the commercial for “Oops I Crapped My Pants” adult diapers.
Yaz Master Set
#1 Gino Cappelletti master set
#1 John Hannah master set
Also collecting Andre Tippett, Patriots Greats' RCs, Dwight Evans, 1964 Venezuelan Topps, 1974 Topps Red Sox
To think that there will not be some
Impact is just not realistic. Of course there will be an impact, the open questions are to scope and magnitude and for how long?
I think that modern cards of current players could see a meaningful hit. Same with modern unopened. Wish I didn’t but that 2020 Topps Series 1 case a month ago. I will be looking for opportunities for sure and wish good luck to those who will be doing the same.
John
My only thoughts on this subject this afternoon are that if anyone is hoarding bottled water and toilet paper, may they be the first to go thirsty and develop a terrible rash.
I agree w the last comment re toilet paper. I do think certain segments of the market are over bought and due for a correction, eg LeBron Topps Chrome Rookie PSA 10 going from $1 to $7,000 in matter of months is bound to come down meaningfully as are some of newer stuff. That said, sports memorabilia put performed the S and P during the last downturn and I think that will continue as most sellers are discretionary sellers even if buying is down some.
I see it both ways. I think there will certainly be some sort of regression and that is to be expected. On one hand, you will have all the people who's disposable income will take a hit, whether it's because they don't get their tips from people not going out and eating, or spending their disposable income on other more important things like daycare for their kids while they're home from school, or extra groceries for an extended stay in the house. On the other hand, the people who are lucky enough to have a stable income right now, will have more free time to organize their collections, and to search the internet and make purchases to stay busy while they wait quietly in their homes for this to pass.
Looks like the Fed is firing almost all of its bullets at once.
Meanwhile, everyone is like, nothing to worry about here.
S&P 500 Futures are down over 3.5% immediately after the move. We'll likely trip the overnight circuit breaker shortly. You can count on Friday's gains to likely be wiped out on Monday.
Volatility up and down will be the norm for the foreseeable future.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
There are clearly going to be some service industry folks hurt by this crisis. There will be plenty of other people who have headwinds for their business. Having rates drop to zero will be bad for me but life will go on.
That said PWCC has over 8,000 listings and loads of action.
Check this one out.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/402157252105?_trksid=p2471758.m4704
Over 111k for a deemed altered card.
Jeter already at 140k
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1993-SP-Foil-Derek-Jeter-ROOKIE-RC-279-PSA-10-GEM-MINT-PWCC/143550563142?hash=item216c47c346:g:DQIAAOSwGfVeZTgn
SO nice to see this sale and see feedback has been left from the seller.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1982-Wrestling-All-Stars-Series-A-2-Hulk-Hogan-RC-Rookie-PSA-9-OC-qualifier-/283796966860?hash=item42139e0dcc:g:pkwAAOSwXepeVy1K&nma=true&si=YGsAj1iDYIatoOap%2BuZCPhTx34Q%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
I think it will slowly become a buyers market. Latest reports is we want see any live sports until at least mid-late June which is 3 months away. IMHO I think football season is in serious jeopardy. I heard an ESPN radio guy say what I have been saying. Who will have the guts to start back? It was a lot easier to quit while everyone was doing it but who will pull the trigger to start back?
Yes, I've been invested in the market for 28 years. I know how it works. My concern isn't really about the market, per se, as those movements in and of itself really affects little in the day to day life of most Americans. The only reason I pointed out the market movements was because they were brought up in previous posts as if they were an indication that everything is going to be fine in short order. If it is so difficult for everyone to see what a wipeout this is going to be in far reaches of the economy, and for a long time, then all I can say is, keep watching.
Create more fiat $ out of thin air.
I think the impact on the hobby will directly correlate to the duration of the disruption. There are a lot of areas of the economy that are taking huge hits right now but whose impact will take several weeks or months to see play out. For example, all of the shale drillers and frackers in the oil business -- those guys depend on higher prices than $30 a barrel. And most of their capital expansion has been heavily financed, predicated on higher oil prices. Lots and lots of those guys are over extended, and are gonna get crushed if this lasts very long. Likewise small businesses like bars and restaurants. Many of those businesses live month to month, and don't have a reserve that allows them to basically go to no income for 60 days and survive. If this goes longer than a month or so, I think there will be a number of smaller business that will go under. The major unanswered question is whether or not people continue to get paid for not going to work. That's just not a sustainable thing for very long, and so the ripple effect of low to middle wage earners not getting a paycheck could cause massive disruptions in the economy. Again, I believe that it is duration that is key.
What we do is (and always should be, in my opinion) viewed as fun that is engaged in with totally discretionary income. If people start to believe that they need to be more cautious in their cash spending, or feel the need to hunker down just a bit with their cash, I think it is certainly possible that we will see people hesitant to buy. The question then will be, are people desperate to sell? For me, my baseball cards are simply collectables. Just for fun. I have no urgent need to sell them, as their value is simply pleasure to me, and is not financial. I won't sell because I don't have any desire or need to sell. If there are some bargains to be found along the way, I'll scoop them up and move on. Panicked sellers and scarce buyers could create a buyer's market for our hobby. I think that there will naturally be some slowdown in middle of the road, average purchases, as people recalibrate their discretionary spending. The longer this goes, and the larger the economic disruption it causes, the lower prices will go overall. But in the short term, especially if this only lasts a few weeks, I don't think we will see any major drop in prices. To echo one earlier poster, unopened prices are still high and haven't seen a drop yet. What I think is safe to say is that this is uncharted territory in our generation. Anyone who claims to have a crystal ball (and not just unsolicited opinions like me) is full of it.
kevin
I just hope it doesn't affect turnaround times at PSA to drastically. I would assume it will to some extent. I currently have a reholder order there, and I'm just wondering how long it will take to get them back.
PSA HOF Baseball Postwar Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 80.51% Complete)
PSA Pro Football HOF Rookie Players Set Registry- (Currently 19.80% Complete)
PSA Basketball HOF Players Rookies Set Registry- (Currently 6.02% Complete)
I think the Coronavirus has already struck the PSA set registry as I can't get seem to add inventory to my sets. Any body else having issues?
I think the high end of the market that is not truly rare is about to get hammered. There has been lots of recent speculation and some folks are going to need to liquidate. Once prices start falling in coming auctions, I see a lot of people dumping. Auction prices for high grade 1986 Fleer Jordans and low-mid grade 1952 Topps Mantles should be pretty telling. I can imagine a flood of unopened being dumped too as people try to cash in on the recent run up in value.
Afternoon,
Interesting time, on Saturday for one of the Last large Sports events to be held here in Phoenix, everything else cancelled as of now. On Sat my Brother and I went to the Mecum Car Auction at Cardinal Stadium.
I know one of the Floor Co--Ordinators and I spent a couple hours in one of the Booths with him. they had originally anticipated Attendance of, for the 4 days to be between 50K and 125K. I was there on Sat for 5 hours, at no time were more than maybe 800-1000 in the entire stadium! Most of the time there were more Mecum Auction employees than the public.
Also contrary to there hyped Inaugural take of $39 Million sounding like a success, the truth is their estimates had been between $75-$100 Mill. Cardinal Stadium is in the middle of an Entertainment district, we went to 2 bars that seated 150-200, one there were 8 customers and one maybe a dozen.
As for how this is going to effect the Hobby....BIGTIME! Descretionary Income is going to be strongly curtailed! And in 3 months I will be Buying Strong! Might Even pick up that Jordan if I can time the window right!
YeeHah!
Neil
I think it will be short term. But we should be talking about the real important stuff ....so for starters I am listing the #1 most important thing we should be talking about....drum roll please........ and # 1 Is ....TOILET PAPER !!!!!
chaz
My only thoughts on this subject this afternoon are that if anyone is hoarding eggs, may their refrigerator soon stink of rotten eggs.
I thought that was #2....
Kris
My 1971 Topps adventure - Davis Men in Black
Well said...where she at?
chaz
Think the economy goes into a recession. My buying is down just In case this results in lay-offs down the road at my company. We are certain to have a bad year so cost cuts typically follow. I am at the level in my career where it takes longer to find something if that happens. Want to build up some savings. I never sell cards just add to my collection. The stuff I am working on will still be there for me when I feel more comfortable spending my discretionary income again.
I slowed down my single card buying since the whole sales tax issue kicked up last year. My sales tax is 10.25%, which is a kick in the cubes when bidding on a high dollar card. I do not plan to start buying any high dollar singles for the foreseeable future due to the panic.
On the sell side, I'm still making sales. The items doing particularly well are modern boxes less than $150. I have had a few buyers by all of the boxes from a listing.