In the absence of faddish or "investor" interest, only the truly "rare" (open to debate) coins are likely to appreciate in real terms IMO. In my 60+ years of collecting, I've never run into a fellow collector outside of clubs, shows, etc. I have run into folks who were buying generics or mint products, the history of which is not generally promising. When I was a member of the Greater Houston Coin Club, we had maybe 20 or 30 active members out of a population of how many millions? The ANA has 25,000 members out of how many millions? Is this truly a "market"? I'm content collecting for fun using money I can afford to lose. My only financial goal is to try not to be taken advantage of in the short term.
Work on car collection in the meantime. Coins are a great relief at the end of the day. One moving part. Coins should only be no more than 10-15% of net worth anyway. Unless in the business.
It's a good time to buy. I haven't been buying much, these days, but I am holding for the long-term. I think it will turn around, in the future, especially for what I collect.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
What I want to know is what will be the best asset class for the next 10 years?
I'd guess cryptocurrencies.
I wrote some code in Java and C++ on my laptop. Anyone want to buy some worthless, intangible electronic tokens from me?
Don't be fatuous. There is way more than just writing some code to establish the legitimacy and viability of a cryptocurrency. Perhaps I should have said select cryptocurrencies.
What I want to know is what will be the best asset class for the next 10 years?
I'd guess cryptocurrencies.
I wrote some code in Java and C++ on my laptop. Anyone want to buy some worthless, intangible electronic tokens from me?
Don't be fatuous. There is way more than just writing some code to establish the legitimacy and viability of a cryptocurrency. Perhaps I should have said select cryptocurrencies.
The only utility or value is in the block chain technology which is technically separate from the putative "currencies." Investing in the block chain technology sector, which many large banks have shown an interest in, is different than investing in crypto-currencies. The latter is a scam IMHO. Take Bitcoin for instance. It was created by an anonymous programmer and is thought to have been the result of someone's thesis in economics or computer science. Where is the value in that? Pump and dump anyone? If on the other hand you meant companies that process block chain transactions as opposed to dealing with worthless electronic tokens, then you may be on to something. Those companies remind me of VISA and Mastercard from the late 1970s and early 1980s.
What I want to know is what will be the best asset class for the next 10 years?
I'd guess cryptocurrencies.
I wrote some code in Java and C++ on my laptop. Anyone want to buy some worthless, intangible electronic tokens from me?
Don't be fatuous. There is way more than just writing some code to establish the legitimacy and viability of a cryptocurrency. Perhaps I should have said select cryptocurrencies.
The only utility or value is in the block chain technology which is technically separate from the putative "currencies." Investing in the block chain technology sector, which many large banks have shown an interest in, is different than investing in crypto-currencies. The latter is a scam IMHO. Take Bitcoin for instance. It was created by an anonymous programmer and is thought to have been the result of someone's thesis in economics or computer science. Where is the value in that? Pump and dump anyone?
Where is the value in Bitcoin you ask? Beyond the billions of financial transactions it has facilitated? I wasn't aware that the founders of Bitcoin were actively "pumping" it. Considering the scale of adoption worldwide, they did a hell of a job, if so.
It appears you're saying (or implying) that anything that results from someone's college thesis is a scam. Especially if they choose to remain anonymous. That doesn't even deserve a response.
@CoinJunkie said:
It appears you're saying (or implying) that anything that results from someone's college thesis is a scam. Especially if they choose to remain anonymous. That doesn't even deserve a response.
I'm saying that it is qualitatively no different than any code that you or I could write. If you market and propagandize most things enough the lemmings will come.
P.S. I think it was actually a graduate thesis and not a college thesis. A doctoral thesis in biology actually lead to future research and a Nobel Prize for the discovery of transposons so not all work arising from an academic thesis is worthless. Most of it is not. As a test project for a graduate student, Bitcoin might be a fun and intellectually fruitful experiment. That does not change the value of the resulting electronic token which has no intrinsic value, is not accepted by any government, etc.
This is my hobby. Price really doesn’t bother me. If it’s your business maybe things will turn around for ya. Just remember it’s the oldest hobby this world, and isn’t going anywhere. Maybe rock collecting is older. Even then not sure if it’s older than coin collecting.
The bitterness of "Poor Quality" is remembered long after the sweetness of low price is forgotten.
I am going to focus more on Mexican coins - second republic and early 20th century, plus some fun stuff. Many Mexico low pop, absurdly cheap vs US. Pop 2/0 on the PCGS 65 20 centavos shown.
Where the pop less than say 1100, ignore the bid sheets and go with minimum cost plus as chances favorable you have only one in bourse room. Remember wholesale bid ok for buying but when price to sell run for where y in green. If single pop put what u want....ignore catalogs / bid sheet.
@crazyhounddog said:
This is my hobby. Price really doesn’t bother me. If it’s your business maybe things will turn around for ya. Just remember it’s the oldest hobby this world, and isn’t going anywhere. Maybe rock collecting is older. Even then not sure if it’s older than coin collecting.
Actually, a declining market is worse for "investors" than dealers. Dealers are constantly flipping. It is easier to sell into a rising market for sure. But I don't really care if the market is flat or slightly dropping because I don't hold anything for that long.
@crazyhounddog said:
This is my hobby. Price really doesn’t bother me. If it’s your business maybe things will turn around for ya. Just remember it’s the oldest hobby this world, and isn’t going anywhere. Maybe rock collecting is older. Even then not sure if it’s older than coin collecting.
Actually, a declining market is worse for "investors" than dealers. Dealers are constantly flipping. It is easier to sell into a rising market for sure. But I don't really care if the market is flat or slightly dropping because I don't hold anything for that long.
That's fine when there is liquidity, but when the items become illiquid quickly as could feasibly happen in this market for many items then it becomes exponentially more risky.
@crazyhounddog said:
This is my hobby. Price really doesn’t bother me. If it’s your business maybe things will turn around for ya. Just remember it’s the oldest hobby this world, and isn’t going anywhere. Maybe rock collecting is older. Even then not sure if it’s older than coin collecting.
Actually, a declining market is worse for "investors" than dealers. Dealers are constantly flipping. It is easier to sell into a rising market for sure. But I don't really care if the market is flat or slightly dropping because I don't hold anything for that long.
That's fine when there is liquidity, but when the items become illiquid quickly as could feasibly happen in this market for many items then it becomes exponentially more risky.
As I said, it's easier to sell into a rising market. Certainly, if liquidity evaporates, the hobby is all but dead. But liquidity, while related, isn't identical to the direction of the market.
No one likes losing large amounts of money regardless of how wealth you may be.
What does losing large amounts mean ?
Coin collecting is a hobby .... upon the sale
of coins I own I don’t care if I win or lose money .
I guess it comes down to personality. I'm not a fan of losing 40-50%+ of the original purchase price regardless of the initial investment amount. Unlike other hobbies which may provide function or skill, coin collecting is more akin to hoarding. I'd rather hoard metal towards the bottom of the price curve and not at the top or during a free fall.
I agree with your first sentence which I interpret as the collector's attitude toward collecting. This comes first.
Next, I think a lot of it has to do with what a person collects. No one likes losing money but it is easier to accept losing money if it's on a coin that the buyer wouldn't have had an opportunity to buy later or for a long time. This is a primary driver in what I have chosen to collect.
No one likes losing large amounts of money regardless of how wealth you may be.
What does losing large amounts mean ?
Coin collecting is a hobby .... upon the sale
of coins I own I don’t care if I win or lose money .
I guess it comes down to personality. I'm not a fan of losing 40-50%+ of the original purchase price regardless of the initial investment amount. Unlike other hobbies which may provide function or skill, coin collecting is more akin to hoarding. I'd rather hoard metal towards the bottom of the price curve and not at the top or during a free fall.
I agree with your first sentence which I interpret as the collector's attitude toward collecting. This comes first.
Next, I think a lot of it has to do with what a person collects. No one likes losing money but it is easier to accept losing money if it's on a coin that the buyer wouldn't have had an opportunity to buy later or for a long time. This is a primary driver in what I have chosen to collect.
I agree with you 100%. It is one thing if we are referring to an irreplaceable item with a small to moderate loss; however, 99.9999% of U.S. coins are far from irreplaceable and really not that scarce in the grander scheme of things. World coin collectors will probably have a different perspective as there are many rarities and often those rarities are priced at small fractions of what a comparably scarce U.S. coin would fetch.
The market for US Coins has been in the tank for sometime. The bids are not moving up but down. Collect what you want but if the bids are going down on it you will lose money. As far as somebody urging you sell your stuff for theirs because they are are trying sell you how expert they are don’t unless your coming out ahead in bid value. It all ads up whether widgets or not. Many make more profit pct wise on inexpensive coins and currency than $1000 plus material.
If your an investor (not actively in the business) set a portfolio goal and consider liquidation it if not happy with progress unless wealthy. You will see how hard it is to SELL coins. Good luck with the eBay sales tax monster.
@oldabeintx said:
In the absence of faddish or "investor" interest, only the truly "rare" (open to debate) coins are likely to appreciate in real terms IMO. In my 60+ years of collecting, I've never run into a fellow collector outside of clubs, shows, etc. I have run into folks who were buying generics or mint products, the history of which is not generally promising. When I was a member of the Greater Houston Coin Club, we had maybe 20 or 30 active members out of a population of how many millions? The ANA has 25,000 members out of how many millions? Is this truly a "market"? I'm content collecting for fun using money I can afford to lose. My only financial goal is to try not to be taken advantage of in the short term.
I think you may run into collectors outside of clubs and shows, but they may not tell you they are collectors. Collecting is a somewhat private hobby as people don't want to become a theft target.
As for coin clubs, there are a lot of collectors online on Instagram now and don't go to clubs or shows. I think clubs need to modernize. I would love to go to my localish coin clubs but rush hour traffic made that a no go. I think they need to be more technology-driven and have more online meetings.
@Sonorandesertrat said:
Sometimes one can lose large amounts of money just by buying a coin. Yes, it's a hobby, but I don't want to lose my shirt buying or selling.
I have already lost my pants buying numismatic literature that has dropped significantly in value.
I try to take the long view on this, so ponder this for a moment: Not to be morbid, but eventually we are all dead and then it doesn't make any difference, whether you own a ten million dollar dollar, a modest collection of dreck, or if you're really unlucky, a formerly valuable collection of Canadian coins LOL.
Of course we all have to wrestle with our perceptions, personality traits and various demons while we are alive. That is the hard part.
True. The only time I'll truly be pleased with my collection is when I'm dead. It's something to look forward to.
Some of the greatest investments have been the simplest.
Savings bonds in 1990 are an example...
The impesssionist artists like Manet and Monet never really enjoyed their great success. They had a dealer/ benefactor that horded all the works and was the market maker for the art. Derided in Europe the dealer found success in America.
16) Leave some meat on the bone for the next guy. Keeps down ebay returns
17) Turn over that inventory, even at a loss.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
@yspsales said:
Some of the greatest investments have been the simplest.
Savings bonds in 1990 are an example...
The impesssionist artists like Manet and Monet never really enjoyed their great success. They had a dealer/ benefactor that horded all the works and was the market maker for the art. Derided in Europe the dealer found success in America.
16) Leave some meat on the bone for the next guy. Keeps down ebay returns
17) Turn over that inventory, even at a loss.
To add some more random thoughts...
I have studied collector and dealers across alot of hobbies.
Paul Durand Ruel was the art dealer nearly went bankrupt many times over several DECADES!
Via the Numismatic Portal, I have listened to nearly every FUN presentation spanning nearly 30 years on Silver Dollars by Randy Campbell and several on VAM's by John Roberts.
They had a lot of sound logic but the advice from these esteemed market makers basically went nowhere.
18) Find a niche and become the expert and market maker
19) I think cracking out is a better model for profits for the small fish
20) CladKing, like Paul Durand Ruel will be right one day. High end moderns are thinly traded and wont take a lot to explode the market. Make your own grades reinvest the profits and wait...
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
No one likes losing large amounts of money regardless of how wealth you may be.
You don't lose money if you treated it like a hobby. You never get the price of your golf clubs back
If you treat it like an investment, you will always be disappointed.
Golf clubs have functionality. At a minimum you lose calories with each stroke. What functionality do metal disks entombed in thick plastic slabs have?
Now you're arguing against the utility of the whole hobby.
No one likes losing large amounts of money regardless of how wealth you may be.
You don't lose money if you treated it like a hobby. You never get the price of your golf clubs back
If you treat it like an investment, you will always be disappointed.
Golf clubs have functionality. At a minimum you lose calories with each stroke. What functionality do metal disks entombed in thick plastic slabs have?
Now you're arguing against the utility of the whole hobby.
No one likes losing large amounts of money regardless of how wealth you may be.
You don't lose money if you treated it like a hobby. You never get the price of your golf clubs back
If you treat it like an investment, you will always be disappointed.
Golf clubs have functionality. At a minimum you lose calories with each stroke. What functionality do metal disks entombed in thick plastic slabs have?
Now you're arguing against the utility of the whole hobby.
21 cut subscriptions, expensive books
22 review credit card debt default statute limitations for your state
23 buy cheap stuff can markup good
24 cut non profitable shows
25 look more at world material / no greysheet, holder, or sticker game on that
26. Use currency fill holes in case from stuff had to blow out
27. Start wearing sport coat at shows
28. If have buy cash put up sign “cash paid for coins and currency.”
29. Cut food store bill - a survival pack of 2 boxes waffles, hd buns, beef franks, lunch meat, loaf bread at or around $10.
I am going to focus more on Mexican coins - second republic and early 20th century, plus some fun stuff. Many Mexico low pop, absurdly cheap vs US. Pop 2/0 on the PCGS 65 20 centavos shown.
Where the pop less than say 1100, ignore the bid sheets and go with minimum cost plus as chances favorable you have only one in bourse room. Remember wholesale bid ok for buying but when price to sell run for where y in green. If single pop put what u want....ignore catalogs / bid sheet.
The price of the example you used isn't going to ever approach US counterparts due to the slab grade. To the extent the gap narrows, it's going to be due to the US coins losing value. It's a subject outside the scope of this thread but an easily defendable opinion. If you are referring to it as a collectible, I agree with that. A coin such as this presumably isn't that common.
As for your second paragraph, for what most dealers sell, I'd rather go home empty and buy it online than overpay at a show. It's not like I can't buy practically everything I see at one (even a big show) any time I want it. A TPG population of 1100 is extremely common.
...I like to buy. When markets get too expensive, it can be hard to continue to collect a series.
This is one reason I stopped collecting South Africa and moved to my current interest. I never paid the South African TPG prices but once I could no longer buy coins (mostly raw) at what I considered to be reasonable, I moved on and sold most.
The mistake I made was in what I kept even though I knew better. I correctly guessed the price level would crash but sold most of the best coins. I kept still nice but cheaper more common stuff, though it isn't common by US standards.
If I had to do it over again, I either would have sold everything or kept a few of the most difficult to replace. The reason I did not is because I Initially intended to resume buying and didn't want to start over. So now, I am stuck with a relatively large number of low value coins whose prices have crashed which I no longer want that badly.
If any of you think many of the US coins you have are illiquid, just try selling the South African coins I still own.
Comments
In the absence of faddish or "investor" interest, only the truly "rare" (open to debate) coins are likely to appreciate in real terms IMO. In my 60+ years of collecting, I've never run into a fellow collector outside of clubs, shows, etc. I have run into folks who were buying generics or mint products, the history of which is not generally promising. When I was a member of the Greater Houston Coin Club, we had maybe 20 or 30 active members out of a population of how many millions? The ANA has 25,000 members out of how many millions? Is this truly a "market"? I'm content collecting for fun using money I can afford to lose. My only financial goal is to try not to be taken advantage of in the short term.
Work on car collection in the meantime. Coins are a great relief at the end of the day. One moving part. Coins should only be no more than 10-15% of net worth anyway. Unless in the business.
100% Positive BST transactions
It's a good time to buy. I haven't been buying much, these days, but I am holding for the long-term. I think it will turn around, in the future, especially for what I collect.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Don't be fatuous. There is way more than just writing some code to establish the legitimacy and viability of a cryptocurrency. Perhaps I should have said select cryptocurrencies.
The only utility or value is in the block chain technology which is technically separate from the putative "currencies." Investing in the block chain technology sector, which many large banks have shown an interest in, is different than investing in crypto-currencies. The latter is a scam IMHO. Take Bitcoin for instance. It was created by an anonymous programmer and is thought to have been the result of someone's thesis in economics or computer science. Where is the value in that? Pump and dump anyone? If on the other hand you meant companies that process block chain transactions as opposed to dealing with worthless electronic tokens, then you may be on to something. Those companies remind me of VISA and Mastercard from the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Where is the value in Bitcoin you ask? Beyond the billions of financial transactions it has facilitated? I wasn't aware that the founders of Bitcoin were actively "pumping" it. Considering the scale of adoption worldwide, they did a hell of a job, if so.
It appears you're saying (or implying) that anything that results from someone's college thesis is a scam. Especially if they choose to remain anonymous. That doesn't even deserve a response.
I'm saying that it is qualitatively no different than any code that you or I could write. If you market and propagandize most things enough the lemmings will come.
P.S. I think it was actually a graduate thesis and not a college thesis. A doctoral thesis in biology actually lead to future research and a Nobel Prize for the discovery of transposons so not all work arising from an academic thesis is worthless. Most of it is not. As a test project for a graduate student, Bitcoin might be a fun and intellectually fruitful experiment. That does not change the value of the resulting electronic token which has no intrinsic value, is not accepted by any government, etc.
This is my hobby. Price really doesn’t bother me. If it’s your business maybe things will turn around for ya. Just remember it’s the oldest hobby this world, and isn’t going anywhere. Maybe rock collecting is older. Even then not sure if it’s older than coin collecting.
I am going to focus more on Mexican coins - second republic and early 20th century, plus some fun stuff. Many Mexico low pop, absurdly cheap vs US. Pop 2/0 on the PCGS 65 20 centavos shown.
Where the pop less than say 1100, ignore the bid sheets and go with minimum cost plus as chances favorable you have only one in bourse room. Remember wholesale bid ok for buying but when price to sell run for where y in green. If single pop put what u want....ignore catalogs / bid sheet.
Actually, a declining market is worse for "investors" than dealers. Dealers are constantly flipping. It is easier to sell into a rising market for sure. But I don't really care if the market is flat or slightly dropping because I don't hold anything for that long.
That's fine when there is liquidity, but when the items become illiquid quickly as could feasibly happen in this market for many items then it becomes exponentially more risky.
As I said, it's easier to sell into a rising market. Certainly, if liquidity evaporates, the hobby is all but dead. But liquidity, while related, isn't identical to the direction of the market.
I agree with your first sentence which I interpret as the collector's attitude toward collecting. This comes first.
Next, I think a lot of it has to do with what a person collects. No one likes losing money but it is easier to accept losing money if it's on a coin that the buyer wouldn't have had an opportunity to buy later or for a long time. This is a primary driver in what I have chosen to collect.
I agree with you 100%. It is one thing if we are referring to an irreplaceable item with a small to moderate loss; however, 99.9999% of U.S. coins are far from irreplaceable and really not that scarce in the grander scheme of things. World coin collectors will probably have a different perspective as there are many rarities and often those rarities are priced at small fractions of what a comparably scarce U.S. coin would fetch.
The market for US Coins has been in the tank for sometime. The bids are not moving up but down. Collect what you want but if the bids are going down on it you will lose money. As far as somebody urging you sell your stuff for theirs because they are are trying sell you how expert they are don’t unless your coming out ahead in bid value. It all ads up whether widgets or not. Many make more profit pct wise on inexpensive coins and currency than $1000 plus material.
If your an investor (not actively in the business) set a portfolio goal and consider liquidation it if not happy with progress unless wealthy. You will see how hard it is to SELL coins. Good luck with the eBay sales tax monster.
I think you may run into collectors outside of clubs and shows, but they may not tell you they are collectors. Collecting is a somewhat private hobby as people don't want to become a theft target.
As for coin clubs, there are a lot of collectors online on Instagram now and don't go to clubs or shows. I think clubs need to modernize. I would love to go to my localish coin clubs but rush hour traffic made that a no go. I think they need to be more technology-driven and have more online meetings.
...I like to buy. When markets get too expensive, it can be hard to continue to collect a series.
True. The only time I'll truly be pleased with my collection is when I'm dead. It's something to look forward to.
Some of the greatest investments have been the simplest.
Savings bonds in 1990 are an example...
The impesssionist artists like Manet and Monet never really enjoyed their great success. They had a dealer/ benefactor that horded all the works and was the market maker for the art. Derided in Europe the dealer found success in America.
16) Leave some meat on the bone for the next guy. Keeps down ebay returns
17) Turn over that inventory, even at a loss.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
To add some more random thoughts...
I have studied collector and dealers across alot of hobbies.
Paul Durand Ruel was the art dealer nearly went bankrupt many times over several DECADES!
Via the Numismatic Portal, I have listened to nearly every FUN presentation spanning nearly 30 years on Silver Dollars by Randy Campbell and several on VAM's by John Roberts.
They had a lot of sound logic but the advice from these esteemed market makers basically went nowhere.
18) Find a niche and become the expert and market maker
19) I think cracking out is a better model for profits for the small fish
20) CladKing, like Paul Durand Ruel will be right one day. High end moderns are thinly traded and wont take a lot to explode the market. Make your own grades reinvest the profits and wait...
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
Entrance fees to the Lourve.
LOL. Touche'...
You might be on to something here
Merci
21 cut subscriptions, expensive books
22 review credit card debt default statute limitations for your state
23 buy cheap stuff can markup good
24 cut non profitable shows
25 look more at world material / no greysheet, holder, or sticker game on that
26. Use currency fill holes in case from stuff had to blow out
27. Start wearing sport coat at shows
28. If have buy cash put up sign “cash paid for coins and currency.”
29. Cut food store bill - a survival pack of 2 boxes waffles, hd buns, beef franks, lunch meat, loaf bread at or around $10.
Timely thread since I have been writing a business plan with hopes in becoming a Vest Pocket, specialist, show dealer...
My OCD forces me to fill in the gap after #10... LOL
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
The price of the example you used isn't going to ever approach US counterparts due to the slab grade. To the extent the gap narrows, it's going to be due to the US coins losing value. It's a subject outside the scope of this thread but an easily defendable opinion. If you are referring to it as a collectible, I agree with that. A coin such as this presumably isn't that common.
As for your second paragraph, for what most dealers sell, I'd rather go home empty and buy it online than overpay at a show. It's not like I can't buy practically everything I see at one (even a big show) any time I want it. A TPG population of 1100 is extremely common.
This is one reason I stopped collecting South Africa and moved to my current interest. I never paid the South African TPG prices but once I could no longer buy coins (mostly raw) at what I considered to be reasonable, I moved on and sold most.
The mistake I made was in what I kept even though I knew better. I correctly guessed the price level would crash but sold most of the best coins. I kept still nice but cheaper more common stuff, though it isn't common by US standards.
If I had to do it over again, I either would have sold everything or kept a few of the most difficult to replace. The reason I did not is because I Initially intended to resume buying and didn't want to start over. So now, I am stuck with a relatively large number of low value coins whose prices have crashed which I no longer want that badly.
If any of you think many of the US coins you have are illiquid, just try selling the South African coins I still own.