@shorecoll said:
I am a professional statistician and there's not really enough public information to get this (IMHO). I think the universe may very well be 3M+, but I think @BBN guessed as close as I could get. My gut says 50k semi-serious US classic coin collectors, with a wide range of collecting interests.
No idea how many. The equally important questions are average age of collector and how many are under 30 and active. If the average age of collectors keeps rising, then collector base is likely to keep shrinking. This new ASE reverse proof has gotten my ten year old interested in collecting in a hurry, but who knows if he’ll stick with it.
@shorecoll said:
I am a professional statistician and there's not really enough public information to get this (IMHO). I think the universe may very well be 3M+, but I think @BBN guessed as close as I could get. My gut says 50k semi-serious US classic coin collectors, with a wide range of collecting interests. Many trends fall off to a level and then flatline for a long time, that might be where we are. The peak was still likely in the 60's and it's been dropping since...maybe we reached those levels for state-quarters, but if we did it dropped like a rock afterward.
A few years ago i asked the forum whether they believed a million people owned at least one slabbed coin. Most everyone said no. But with 50,000,000 or so slabbed pieces, that would mean an average of 50 or more slabbed coins for the remaining 999,999 or fewer collectors.
@ElmerFusterpuck My sister and brother-in-law are pretty good at shooting craps, but they still can't figure out why their Beanie Babies were losers.
@Coinstartled I am certain that I have a bit over 120 slabbed coins, 50 are important and 70 are trivial. I probably have 1,800+ collector coins, so slabs are a low percentage of the total. And, over the years, lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of slabs were lost to the crack-out game. IMHO, a coin person is typically pretty advanced in the hobby before first acquiring a slabbed coin - but that is not quite as solid an observation today as a few years back. Slabs are filtering out into the masses - I have recently given away ten PCGS slabbed Apollo 11 silver Dollars as gifts to family members.
@CCGGG said:
Depends on how you define a collector. I really don't know but if you eliminate those who collect statehood/territory/park quarter series, and those who inherited a jar of wheat cents or a few silver dollars from "mom and dad" then that's going to cut down the number a lot. Maybe by 80 to 90%?
IMO, you can also eliminate most anyone that has bought coins from the "Coin Vault" of any other TV markets... They just don't fit my definition of a coin collector. I could give them a name but I might get banned from the forum.
So without those, I'd say 3,000,000 sounds very high to me... I'd think the number of actual collectors is under 250,000 but that's just a WAG.
Whatever the number, it has to be large enough to support the price level. I believe 250,000 is far too low for that, even taking into account that prices are set at the margin by a fraction.
@jmlanzaf said:
That is the second time this week that some one had used the word "oriental" on this forum. We've identified the demographic as 90 year old white men.
Smh
Oriental
I could have used another term. Regardless, the point I was trying to make is that the participation rate varies widely by demographic group. This is obvious and no one can deny it.
The OP asked for estimates for today but I was also inferring another point. Take a look at demographic forecasts decades from now, combine it with any "reasonable" estimate of current participation rates by demographic group, and the result isn't favorable. It's even less so for the potential collector base for US coinage.
In the aggregate, the participation rate will probably have to increase noticeably by those who collect the most today (yes, white men) just to keep the base from shrinking.
@shorecoll said:
I am a professional statistician and there's not really enough public information to get this (IMHO). I think the universe may very well be 3M+, but I think @BBN guessed as close as I could get. My gut says 50k semi-serious US classic coin collectors, with a wide range of collecting interests. Many trends fall off to a level and then flatline for a long time, that might be where we are. The peak was still likely in the 60's and it's been dropping since...maybe we reached those levels for state-quarters, but if we did it dropped like a rock afterward.
A few years ago i asked the forum whether they believed a million people owned at least one slabbed coin. Most everyone said no. But with 50,000,000 or so slabbed pieces, that would mean an average of 50 or more slabbed coins for the remaining 999,999 or fewer collectors.
That seems high.
An outsized proportion of slabbed coins are NCLT, mostly ASE and other foreign silver. I suspect that a noticeable number own this coinage in large and even very large numbers for financial reasons
Look at the TPG population counts for the Morgan dollar. Several have counts from 200,000 to 400,000 and given the grade distribution, shouldn't have many duplicates proportionately. If my estimate of 2,000,000 is even close to accurate, do one-in-ten to one-in-five US collectors really own one of these common dates?
My answer is no, especially considering that there are potentially more of these coins ungraded even now than in a holder. Aside from dealers holding this common coinage for inventory, some "collectors" potentially own a coin like the 1881-S by the hundreds.
@Absolution said:
Does the collector count include me or does that count only reflect those who collect the series of every year and log into the Mint to get the new year's coin?
Based upon your own description, I'd include you in my definition of collector.
@shorecoll said:
I am a professional statistician and there's not really enough public information to get this (IMHO). I think the universe may very well be 3M+, but I think @BBN guessed as close as I could get. My gut says 50k semi-serious US classic coin collectors, with a wide range of collecting interests. Many trends fall off to a level and then flatline for a long time, that might be where we are. The peak was still likely in the 60's and it's been dropping since...maybe we reached those levels for state-quarters, but if we did it dropped like a rock afterward.
A few years ago i asked the forum whether they believed a million people owned at least one slabbed coin. Most everyone said no. But with 50,000,000 or so slabbed pieces, that would mean an average of 50 or more slabbed coins for the remaining 999,999 or fewer collectors.
That seems high.
But you are a dealer. Probably only a million of them.
I really couldn't say as far as the overall number. Can only offer up how those in my small sphere can be classified. A relative who quit years ago and sits on his collection. 2 friends who are stackers of silver. A friend who has since passed who was a P/T dealer, but stopped his activity years before he passed on. So of these 4 it is 0-4 that they could be deemed collectors as it would be defined by some. None participated in the arena of slabs.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
It's in the first minute. He said they had 2.7 M customers in the mid 90s and are at below 500k now. That doesn't tell you that the number of collectors are 1/5 what they used to be, but it gives us a ballpark for numbers. It makes me feel comfortable saying there are at least 500k collectors.
Back in 2017 I took a sample of the number of coins sold in a number of coin categories on eBay. I totaled a little over 1.5 M coin transactions in their sold history, which goes back 90 days. That didn't include all countries (but a lot) and no bullion. I think with over 300k/month US coin transactions on eBay suggests that the numbers are well into the hundreds of thousands.
Taking the mean of all guesses here yields 842,545 collectors, dealers, enthusiasts, etc. Distribute the value of yearly coin wealth (3.1bn) in the same manner wealth is distributed in the US and the top 1% (8426 individuals) have collections that total $1.3 billion or ($154,521 in value each). The next 4% (33,702 individuals) have collections that total $837 million or ($24,835 each) The next 5% (42,127 individuals) have collections that total $341 million or ($8095 each) The next 10% (84,255 individuals) have collections that total $372 million or ($4,415 each). The bottom 80% of transactions would only account for $165 million in value and at 8% market share, these collectors could be considered "casual" which negates 674,035 casual collectors. This leaves us with 168,510 collectors vying for 92% of the market share. That seems reasonable.
Comments
No idea how many. The equally important questions are average age of collector and how many are under 30 and active. If the average age of collectors keeps rising, then collector base is likely to keep shrinking. This new ASE reverse proof has gotten my ten year old interested in collecting in a hurry, but who knows if he’ll stick with it.
I have somewhere between 4+5,000 slabs!
Not enough keep USA coin market afloat (see PCGS 3000 graph).
@ElmerFusterpuck My sister and brother-in-law are pretty good at shooting craps, but they still can't figure out why their Beanie Babies were losers.
@Coinstartled I am certain that I have a bit over 120 slabbed coins, 50 are important and 70 are trivial. I probably have 1,800+ collector coins, so slabs are a low percentage of the total. And, over the years, lots and lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of slabs were lost to the crack-out game. IMHO, a coin person is typically pretty advanced in the hobby before first acquiring a slabbed coin - but that is not quite as solid an observation today as a few years back. Slabs are filtering out into the masses - I have recently given away ten PCGS slabbed Apollo 11 silver Dollars as gifts to family members.
Whatever the number, it has to be large enough to support the price level. I believe 250,000 is far too low for that, even taking into account that prices are set at the margin by a fraction.
I could have used another term. Regardless, the point I was trying to make is that the participation rate varies widely by demographic group. This is obvious and no one can deny it.
The OP asked for estimates for today but I was also inferring another point. Take a look at demographic forecasts decades from now, combine it with any "reasonable" estimate of current participation rates by demographic group, and the result isn't favorable. It's even less so for the potential collector base for US coinage.
In the aggregate, the participation rate will probably have to increase noticeably by those who collect the most today (yes, white men) just to keep the base from shrinking.
An outsized proportion of slabbed coins are NCLT, mostly ASE and other foreign silver. I suspect that a noticeable number own this coinage in large and even very large numbers for financial reasons
Look at the TPG population counts for the Morgan dollar. Several have counts from 200,000 to 400,000 and given the grade distribution, shouldn't have many duplicates proportionately. If my estimate of 2,000,000 is even close to accurate, do one-in-ten to one-in-five US collectors really own one of these common dates?
My answer is no, especially considering that there are potentially more of these coins ungraded even now than in a holder. Aside from dealers holding this common coinage for inventory, some "collectors" potentially own a coin like the 1881-S by the hundreds.
Based upon your own description, I'd include you in my definition of collector.
But you are a dealer. Probably only a million of them.
42 as the rest just chase stickers.
Approximately 585,317.
I really couldn't say as far as the overall number. Can only offer up how those in my small sphere can be classified. A relative who quit years ago and sits on his collection. 2 friends who are stackers of silver. A friend who has since passed who was a P/T dealer, but stopped his activity years before he passed on. So of these 4 it is 0-4 that they could be deemed collectors as it would be defined by some. None participated in the arena of slabs.
There was a video with the mint director where he said the number of unique customers they had last year.
It's in the first minute. He said they had 2.7 M customers in the mid 90s and are at below 500k now. That doesn't tell you that the number of collectors are 1/5 what they used to be, but it gives us a ballpark for numbers. It makes me feel comfortable saying there are at least 500k collectors.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
Back in 2017 I took a sample of the number of coins sold in a number of coin categories on eBay. I totaled a little over 1.5 M coin transactions in their sold history, which goes back 90 days. That didn't include all countries (but a lot) and no bullion. I think with over 300k/month US coin transactions on eBay suggests that the numbers are well into the hundreds of thousands.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
Can’t we put that question on the CENSUS ?
I just sold two coins on ebay, so in my estimation there are two more than I thought there were when I first saw this
Taking the mean of all guesses here yields 842,545 collectors, dealers, enthusiasts, etc. Distribute the value of yearly coin wealth (3.1bn) in the same manner wealth is distributed in the US and the top 1% (8426 individuals) have collections that total $1.3 billion or ($154,521 in value each). The next 4% (33,702 individuals) have collections that total $837 million or ($24,835 each) The next 5% (42,127 individuals) have collections that total $341 million or ($8095 each) The next 10% (84,255 individuals) have collections that total $372 million or ($4,415 each). The bottom 80% of transactions would only account for $165 million in value and at 8% market share, these collectors could be considered "casual" which negates 674,035 casual collectors. This leaves us with 168,510 collectors vying for 92% of the market share. That seems reasonable.