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Just paid $100 for a 1993 AROD beckett 9 auto 10...
olb31
Posts: 2,940 ✭✭✭✭✭
there's a page or more Kyler Murray"s selling for $500 or more. What the ----? Does this make sense to anyone? Statistical one of the best 5 baseball hitters of all-time vs a QB that has won 3 games. Heck Murrays's cards sell for more than Brees and there a better chance of winning the lottery than Murray being the equal of either one. Why? How did it get to be the skewed?
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You just don't get it.
Speculators opinion. Also price based on his potential.
People look at Murray, and they see his star rising. They see how dynamic his ability is and what he is capable of. He's one of those players that can explode at any given moment. He's electrifying to watch. The cards of young players like that usually catch fire pretty fast.
To me buying prospects is risky. Yes you can do good. Also a possibility of losing money. I wonder have people lost money on Kris Bryant?
I collect hall of fame rookie cards, https://www.instagram.com/stwainfan/
I agree that some of these purchases seem stupid. People just do not use common sense when buying "rookie" cards.
A perfect example (so far anyway) are the insane prices paid for Byron Buxton cards when he was a second overall pick.
He has been a bust so far and even if he suddenly can stay healthy and put a few good years together, it's highly doubtful he will be a HOFer.
People just seem to have to have the new rookie card even though it would be much smarter to "invest" the same amount of money in someone already in the HOF.
This
For me I would rather spend my money on stuff like.
I collect hall of fame rookie cards, https://www.instagram.com/stwainfan/
you are correct i don't understand it. Alex, is far and away the better athlete, the more popular, and statistical better than kyler, in fact, there is nothing that kyler can be compared to alex. kyler played horribly today, by the way. so $100 for alex seems incredibly cheap, $2,500 for any kyler card seems unbelievable.
Besides the fact that people pay big money for ultra modern cards of hot prospects and rookies, against all logic..... you also can’t completely discount the steroids angle. I can’t be the only one out there who wouldn’t take an A-Rod card if it was FREE.
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I don't get it either. Buying rookies is always a gamble. You used to be able to get a rookie card at a reasonable cost, but now it seems they are way too expensive.
As a Twins fan, I was interested in Buxton, but his "good" rookie cards were hundreds of dollars, and if I remember correctly his "best" ones were in the thousands.
I would much rather spend the money upgrading a Killebrew card than speculating on a rookie who's card will most likely never be worth thousands of dollars.
I am not criticizing those who chase these rookie cards, it must be nice to have huge sums of disposable money.
Disclaimer: Very long. But something that Ive been wrapping my head around for quite some time.
Being primarily a vintage collector with the past year of dipping both feet into the modern baseball scene, I can honestly tell you that the type of collectors are completely different with median age being the most definitive difference, however the same in certain aspects as well.
I, too, found some of these prices absolutely insane when it comes to prospects or the new kid(s) on the block. Modern basketball even more so.
But it pretty much boils down to this in my dealings of both purchasing and selling of modern and vintage.
With day to day vintage, it’s primarily slow and steady appreciation and sometimes, depreciation. But you never really get a 5x return or loss over the weekend.
Most of these purchases are for personal collections or long term holds.
While not vintage, but using OP’s example as it relates, there is nothing that’s going to make the ‘93 Arod skyrocket or decline sharply in a day, a month or perhaps even a decades times.
Even with would be HOF’ers we usually see a spike leading up to and shortly after induction. Then a slight dip before resuming its usual slow and steady appreciation. All this w/o market manipulation, naturally.
Those that make these purchases tend to be established professionally, most likely have a family and real disposable income. A $50 perceived loss on a $500 card isnt the end of the world.
When a deal is agreed to, it’s usually done. Very little worries about returns. Little to no risk of the buyer coming back 179 days later via paypal.
While the modern segment is very different in these regards.
Base cards seem to be relative to vintage. No real risk there during the actual rookie year. However when it comes to the parallels, refractors and high end stuff, it gets tricky, quickly.
In the beginning, I had to worry about my purchases actually showing up. I had several deals that never shipped, one that was actually recalled via UPS mid-shipment. My guy went hitless for the week when I won a /25 at auction on Thursday. All of the sudden the player jacks 4 home runs over the weekend and makes Sports Center. Card never gets shipped and communication goes dark. Several similar instances. Just pick any of the usual excuses ranging from “I found a surface scratch and dont want you to be mad”, “sold it at a show this weekend” or “can’t find the card in my collection”. All three of these excuses were used multiple times over. Remember them all quite well. Again, coming from the vintage side, this stuff happened but only in extremely rare instances.
On the flip side, if I bought another /25 while the guy was slumping and continued to slump immediately afterwards I would get peppered with messages literally the hour it showed ensuring I got it safely and asking to please leave feedback ASAP. I tend to purchase a ton, but tend to go thru ebay at the end of the month to reconcile, ensure I got each purchase and leave feedback in bulk.
I found it really odd in the beginning to have repeated and multiple requests to leave feedback. Usually I just ignored bc I never purchased my “prospect” for speculation. I bought it just like all the Mantles, Ryans, Gambles and so forth. For my collection. If it appreciates, great. If not, oh well. I’m not returning it and my light bill still gets paid.
Flash forward 3 weeks and remembering I ignored feedback requests. Said player takes a hard dive into the wall or slides into second and sprains his wrist. Ends up getting pulled from the game. Then scratched from the next game or two. Modern guys go into full panic mode. The very next day an influx from multiple sellers would all message with something along the lined of “Hey, it’s been a while, hope you are enjoying the card. Just noticed you hadn't left feedback yet, but can you please do it when you get a sec”.
Apparently and ultimately, with the modern segment and these outrageous prices on variations and parallels, it’s nothing but a game of speculation which turns into nothing more than a game of musical chairs or hot potato 98% of the time.
As referenced above, the 93 Arod is what it is. These prospects can go from $500 pre-mlb, to $1000 overnight on a call up. Then explode to $5000 with a hot run or solid month.
They quite often come crashing back down the next month. Harder and quicker.
Now to the differences and answer to the OP’s original question.
These collectors tend to be younger, have a girlfriend or roommates, love ramen, influenced by what other’s like and frequently tend to be a lil late on that electric bill. A $500 loss on paper is detrimental to one’s health and that girlfriend. But they won that last Acuna Bat Down Mini /150 PSA 10 at auction only because they know “I’ll be able to sell it next week for twice this”, while battling “How do I pay for it now though?”
A lot of times they stretch it out until the last possible moment hoping the player has a good week. If so, pay for it. If not, go dark.
In the end, these collectors who were the last ones to catch the potato have a very high percentage of filing cases thru ebay or paypal to recoup their losses. More times than not, its the chain of guy’s who caught that potato in the last 6 months.
“Sure, I’ll go all in on this card. Hold it a month or so. Then flip it. And if it doesnt or the guy gets hurt, I can send it back w/o any real issues, other than with my own self morals”
So while “speculation” is the main root of it there’s also a good unhealthy mix of gambling with no real risk. They are fully protected for 6 months. “Let’s roll the dice!”
Unfortunately, there are those out there that know, work & fully exploit the system which also lead to these prices being, ut-um, realized. Now, I’m not saying it happens all the time. I’m sure one good scare, either monetarily or to one’s online reputation thwarts most modern collectors from repeating this cycle, hopefully. I’m sure there are guys out there that also repeatedly use this practice.
But in the end, it’s no different than vintage or pre-war. Every niche has these characters and work specific angles. It is what it is. And that’s all it is.
I must admit, Kyler stunk it up yesterday. He is turning on a downward spiral. Yes, I was wrong about Murray, I admit it. So let's compare Murray and Arod using cereal boxes.
Arod:
Murray:
Now, Lamar Jackson is another story. Last year he was OK. This year he's a legitimate MVP candidate. I've been watching Baltimore and I would hate to try to defend against him and that offense. The trickery is maddening.