@keets said:
Sam, I could refute or argue most of what you post on this topic but what's the use?? you obviously have your perspective and all I can share is what I saw firsthand for about 20 years everyday.
I am interested in you opinions and observations whether you agree with me or not.
Anyone who tries to find a nice raw '70-D is in for an education. These sets aren't piled deep and everywhere any longer and quality never was very good. Most people are well advised to buy an MS-66 since these really are cream of the crop and they are being "given away". 49 years ago you could wear out a pair of shoes finding a nice '70-D and they are a great deal tougher today. A good pair of shoes might be more expensive than a Gem.
I missed this part of your post, hence my late reply.
The statistical odds of finding a gradeable PCGS MS-66 are somewhat low for this coin but that doesn't mean much of anything since it isn't actually scarce.
Your statement that an MS-66 is being "given away" just goes to show how far apart your perception of this coinage is from the overwhelming majority of the collector base. This coin isn't cheap for the supply but relatively expensive compared to most of the available alternatives in the same price range, even considering potential duplicates. PCGS has graded 615 at this level or higher (10 "+" and 15 in 67) while presumably some proportion of the 153 graded by NGC are also comparable. Recent sales on Heritage (roughly last 12 months) range from somewhat under $200 to almost $300.
If you think the price is a "give away", how much do you believe this coin should be worth?
PCGS has graded a little over 7,000 pieces of this date for all grades. Not very many, is it? As such, I'd think the overwhelming majority of the collector base is busy filling holes in their Danscos, not much worrying about whether it's worth sending in the coin they're considering to see if it might grade MS66.
@MasonG said:
PCGS has graded a little over 7,000 pieces of this date for all grades. Not very many, is it? As such, I'd think the overwhelming majority of the collector base is busy filling holes in their Danscos, not much worrying about whether it's worth sending in the coin they're considering to see if it might grade MS66.
Exactly,
Going by the available data, around 99% of Kennedy collectors are either low budget or it's a sideline collection, not their primary interest. Price of an MS-66 is four to five times an MS-65 based upon my limited review. If anyone wants a nice example that badly, presumably there is a t least a low proportion of the 4,000+ in MS-65 that are comparable.
Due to the price variance and relative quality difference, most collectors take the sensible approach and use the balance to buy something else. Transition between the Kennedy series and other coinage is overwhelmingly a one way street, except among lower budget collectors.
@WCC said:
>
If you think the price is a "give away", how much do you believe this coin should be worth?
It's only hard to spend 2 or $300 on a good pair of shoes because products now days are hard to find "good".
It would be very difficult to compute the cost of driving around, walking, lifting, screening, and sundry other activities that were necessary to find a '70-D of this calibre back in the 1970's when there were still lots and lots and lots of nice pristine sets everywhere you went. Coin shows could have hundreds but they weren't the best place to look because some were a little picked over even in those days. Shops would have a dozen or two sets and many of these were found in unopened boxes of five. ALL the sets were pristine in those days and you could easily buy them by the wheelbarrow full if you were willing to pay the price. MS-65's were abundant at about 2%. For years I thought this was the upper end of the scale.
In those days the value of mint sets prices exceeded the total value of the coins in them and often by a very wide margin. Few people could just afford to buy quantities and dispose of the less desirable coins because it was extremely expensive. Over the years this reversed. In the '70's it was a lot of work and cost to cherry pick a Gem even though pristine sets were common. Now sets are hard to find, most are tarnished, and most groupings of sets are already cherry picked.
You might think that this means all those "cherries" are sitting out there just waiting for higher prices because there's no attrition on moderns right? WRONG. The cherries were "consumed" very much like the other coins and those stored in the plastic also have tarnish problems.
If you had told me in 1980 that a MS-66 '70-D half dollar would be worth only about $75 in 1980 dollars in 2019 I would have quit looking for them. It wouldn't have been profitable. The costs associated with finding and storing them in safety deposit boxes would be prohibitive. Sets were expensive and the money could be invested elsewhere. So, yes, I consider $300 for an MS-66 to be a gift. Someone else probably did a lot of work and incurred a lot of cost to assure that coin sits in an MS-66 slab. The grader did a lot of work and sometimes conservers did a lot of work.
Given what I know now I'd rather be on the receiving end of this gift,
Going by the available data, around 99% of Kennedy collectors are either low budget or it's a sideline collection, not their primary interest.
I would think this is accurate. most buyers that I encountered were primarily interested in filling a hole, not overall grade of the coins they were buying, including the subject coin. I don't know and can't know how many 1970 Mint Sets are still intact but would imagine it's probably around 2 million. most of the 1970-D's in those sets are MS63-64 coins but there are higher grade coins also, the graded data we have supports that. it's just a matter of a collector being willing to patiently hunt for the right coin.
And, that is, quite frankly, the only reason I screen a few hundred sets a year now tops (as opposed to 1,000’s of sets per year) on the 1970 mint sets.
I will buy every “fresh” deal I can find, but they are far and few apart.
The MS66 “money grade” is too darn tough to locate in these sets to begin with... the “juice ain’t worth the squeeze” anymore - I’m not 25 years old any more.
This says nothing about what my primary or secondary interests are, or whether I love this series more or less than another series. It simply says, it is too difficult to find MS66 coins in these sets to make the “hunt” worthwhile any more.
Every now and again, I get to a safe box that has a couple raw MS66 or better 70-D 50C in it that I tucked away 30-35 years ago and they are such a sight to see (especially the deep proof like ones) and I still vaguely remember the “hunts” where they came from.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@keets The original number of 1970-D half dollars was 2,150,000 pieces, so that must have been the number of Unc. sets too (actually, I looked that up in the Red Book, and there is a discrepancy of 110,000 sets/coins - very odd).
If I were a betting man, I'd wager that 50% of the Unc. sets have been cut up. Once about 1990 I bought 30 of the 1970-D halves, cut from the rest of the set but still in the Mint wrappers from Mr. Julian Jarvis (a well-regarded Midwest dealer name from the past). Not the only time I did something like that.
@WCC said:
>
If you think the price is a "give away", how much do you believe this coin should be worth?
It's only hard to spend 2 or $300 on a good pair of shoes because products now days are hard to find "good".
It would be very difficult to compute the cost of driving around, walking, lifting, screening, and sundry other activities that were necessary to find a '70-D of this calibre back in the 1970's when there were still lots and lots and lots of nice pristine sets everywhere you went. Coin shows could have hundreds but they weren't the best place to look because some were a little picked over even in those days. Shops would have a dozen or two sets and many of these were found in unopened boxes of five. ALL the sets were pristine in those days and you could easily buy them by the wheelbarrow full if you were willing to pay the price. MS-65's were abundant at about 2%. For years I thought this was the upper end of the scale.
In those days the value of mint sets prices exceeded the total value of the coins in them and often by a very wide margin. Few people could just afford to buy quantities and dispose of the less desirable coins because it was extremely expensive. Over the years this reversed. In the '70's it was a lot of work and cost to cherry pick a Gem even though pristine sets were common. Now sets are hard to find, most are tarnished, and most groupings of sets are already cherry picked.
You might think that this means all those "cherries" are sitting out there just waiting for higher prices because there's no attrition on moderns right? WRONG. The cherries were "consumed" very much like the other coins and those stored in the plastic also have tarnish problems.
If you had told me in 1980 that a MS-66 '70-D half dollar would be worth only about $75 in 1980 dollars in 2019 I would have quit looking for them. It wouldn't have been profitable. The costs associated with finding and storing them in safety deposit boxes would be prohibitive. Sets were expensive and the money could be invested elsewhere. So, yes, I consider $300 for an MS-66 to be a gift. Someone else probably did a lot of work and incurred a lot of cost to assure that coin sits in an MS-66 slab. The grader did a lot of work and sometimes conservers did a lot of work.
Given what I know now I'd rather be on the receiving end of this gift,
It was quicker and easier for me to find a nice 1970-D half dollar than it was for you to write that post.
@cladking said:
Given what I know now I'd rather be on the receiving end of this gift,
I doubt anybody would refuse the gift of a MS66 1970-D half. And for those who are willing to pay for one, there are 11 out of the 590 that PCGS has graded to choose from on eBay right now. Not that hard to find, it would seem.
I "made" quite a few of the 66's years ago....early-mid 1990s.
Then a 6 was a huge score, and if you (or the graders, lol) missed, you still made money on the 5's.
I did notice though that PCGS preferred the deep frosty luster to the PL-ish coins.
I would also strongly agree with @BillDugan1959 that at least 50% of 1970 mint sets have been cut up for album coins/rolls of 70-D halves.
On a separate but related note, and admittedly without looking up pop numbers, the 72 Philly issue in well struck lustrous 66 was really tough for me to find or "make."
@keets said:
Sam, I could refute or argue most of what you post on this topic but what's the use?? you obviously have your perspective and all I can share is what I saw firsthand for about 20 years everyday.
I'll secon Keets on this. At least from a NY perspective. While there may be big market makers out there still, the discount on Mint and Proof sets have fallen off a cliff. Dealers used to pay 15% back because they could 10% back from market makers. Now they pay 30% back because no one is paying more than 25% back for bulk lots.
Wondercoin is also right: you can sell large lots of specific dates of choice sets. But that's not helpful to either the customer or dealer who walks in to the shop with a date run of sets and you have to buy them all to get the one or two cherry sets.
There are some Mint sets that just have to be dumped into a Coinstar.
I sent in 5 of them a few years ago, that i cut from mint sets, to test my grading skills. Got 2 ms 65 and 3 ms64. Im still sitting on some but most look ms63 - ms64. I agree that a lot of sets have been cut up, and i believe this will continue for some time as the price of the coins sold individually exceeds the cost of the set as a whole.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
@WCC said:
>
If you think the price is a "give away", how much do you believe this coin should be worth?
It's only hard to spend 2 or $300 on a good pair of shoes because products now days are hard to find "good".
It would be very difficult to compute the cost of driving around, walking, lifting, screening, and sundry other activities that were necessary to find a '70-D of this calibre back in the 1970's when there were still lots and lots and lots of nice pristine sets everywhere you went. Coin shows could have hundreds but they weren't the best place to look because some were a little picked over even in those days. Shops would have a dozen or two sets and many of these were found in unopened boxes of five. ALL the sets were pristine in those days and you could easily buy them by the wheelbarrow full if you were willing to pay the price. MS-65's were abundant at about 2%. For years I thought this was the upper end of the scale.
In those days the value of mint sets prices exceeded the total value of the coins in them and often by a very wide margin. Few people could just afford to buy quantities and dispose of the less desirable coins because it was extremely expensive. Over the years this reversed. In the '70's it was a lot of work and cost to cherry pick a Gem even though pristine sets were common. Now sets are hard to find, most are tarnished, and most groupings of sets are already cherry picked.
You might think that this means all those "cherries" are sitting out there just waiting for higher prices because there's no attrition on moderns right? WRONG. The cherries were "consumed" very much like the other coins and those stored in the plastic also have tarnish problems.
If you had told me in 1980 that a MS-66 '70-D half dollar would be worth only about $75 in 1980 dollars in 2019 I would have quit looking for them. It wouldn't have been profitable. The costs associated with finding and storing them in safety deposit boxes would be prohibitive. Sets were expensive and the money could be invested elsewhere. So, yes, I consider $300 for an MS-66 to be a gift. Someone else probably did a lot of work and incurred a lot of cost to assure that coin sits in an MS-66 slab. The grader did a lot of work and sometimes conservers did a lot of work.
Given what I know now I'd rather be on the receiving end of this gift,
Your reply is irrelevant to my question. You didn't even answer it.
What you wrote might be relevant if the only alternative was for someone to cherrypick rolls as you and Wondercoin do but it isn't. This is assuming they want the coin that badly in this grade which only the profile I described does. Anyone can go out and buy this coin in PCGS MS-66 on short notice, probably right now, any time and all the time.
The actual relevant question is, what else can a prospective buyer buy with the same money and why would they choose this coin (an MS-66 or any other Kennedy) over comparably priced or cheaper alternatives?
You didn't answer this question because you know that given this coin's attributes, it isn't competitive to most collectors even at current prices, much less far higher. If you had answered, I can anticipate you would tell me it should be worth $500, $1000, $2000 or even more right now.
I don't know and can't know how many 1970 Mint Sets are still intact but would imagine it's probably around 2 million.
>
You might want to check and see what a 1 1/2% attrition rate would do on two million mintage even if no one had ever cut one up on purpose. More than a quarter million have been lost just to fire and flood etc.
The vast majority of '70 sm dt cents were removed from these sets and people don't keep the set minus a single coin. If they did they couldn't sell it.
I know many thousands of sets that have been cut by wholesalers and promoters.
This date has one of the lowest aggregate attrition from the era and I'd be surprised if there are many more than 500,000 left. Consider that in the '70's groupings of mint sets were all from the '70's and earlier. In the '80's about half were '70's and half '80's. In the '90's a quarter were '70's, half '80's, and a quarter '90's. As time has gone by the sellers simply weren't old enough to have been buying mint sets in the late '60's/ early '70's. Now days mint set runs that come into coin shops almost invariably BEGIN after 1977. These are the supply except the old picked and tarnished sets that have been traded back and forth on the market.
I tend to estimate high so half a million is probably a very liberal guess. And it's an educated guess by someone who has watched the mint set market and the mint set pieces market since about 1970.
Nothing made by man lasts. They are lost through neglect and intent. They are lost through misadventure and various types of accidents. Remember the 1913 V-nickel lost in a car accident? But 1970 mint sets won't come back together after someone cuts out a FS nickel to send in for grading.
I know you've said this same thing before and I couldn't dissuade you from your belief then either but that was nearly 15 years ago and there are another quarter million fewer sets since then. These sets will be destroyed even faster if people start collecting moderns in meaningful numbers. Indeed, if people just looked at their sets many more would be cut up and put into circulation because they are tarnished. Waiting ten years to look at them won't make them any prettier. They get worse in time once they tarnish and the only thing that save them is to soak them in acetone or 91% alcohol BEFORE they get too bad.
@keets said:
Sam, I could refute or argue most of what you post on this topic but what's the use?? you obviously have your perspective and all I can share is what I saw firsthand for about 20 years everyday.
I'll secon Keets on this. At least from a NY perspective. While there may be big market makers out there still, the discount on Mint and Proof sets have fallen off a cliff. Dealers used to pay 15% back because they could 10% back from market makers. Now they pay 30% back because no one is paying more than 25% back for bulk lots.
Wondercoin is also right: you can sell large lots of specific dates of choice sets. But that's not helpful to either the customer or dealer who walks in to the shop with a date run of sets and you have to buy them all to get the one or two cherry sets.
There are some Mint sets that just have to be dumped into a Coinstar.
Anyone who sells mint sets at the corner shop deserves what he gets. Simply stated the offer will generally be less than face value even if the lot contains better dates like the '70, '73 etc.
Knowledgeable collectors do not sell many coins at the corner shop and certainly not moderns.
@keets said: Going by the available data, around 99% of Kennedy collectors are either low budget or it's a sideline collection, not their primary interest.
I would think this is accurate. most buyers that I encountered were primarily interested in filling a hole, not overall grade of the coins they were buying, including the subject coin. I don't know and can't know how many 1970 Mint Sets are still intact but would imagine it's probably around 2 million. most of the 1970-D's in those sets are MS63-64 coins but there are higher grade coins also, the graded data we have supports that. it's just a matter of a collector being willing to patiently hunt for the right coin.
I haven't been on this forum long but I arrive at this type of conclusion by using relative prices, TPG data or other estimates of supply, and anecdotal data from comments on coin forums and the numismatic press. This is aside from my own personal experience which is secondary.
It's evident that the comment you quoted is correct and I don't need to survey or ask anyone to prove it. Any collector can afford this series in "high quality" or if they can't, can't afford to be a collector at all. There are no practical supply constraints unlike with many other coins (such as those I collect) and the existing supply turns over regularly precisely because collectors do not have a high preference for it, except as I described.
If collectors really liked this series a lot more, whether in a particular quality or generically, they'd be buying it at much higher prices because it would be worth a lot more right now.
The evidence proves they aren't. And the reason they aren't is because it's a less advanced form of collecting than the coins and series which bigger budget buyers actually prefer. Collectors who start with this series transition to other more challenging and interesting series at least 99% of the time, budgets permitting. Concurrently, there is virtually zero movement in the other direction.
No one is going to see the day when any noticeable number of collectors who collect ancients, medieval, early US federal or the type of coins I collect starts buying Kennedy's as a replacement at any material financial outlay. It's not going to happen because it's contrary to collector motivation.
@keets said:
Sam, I could refute or argue most of what you post on this topic but what's the use?? you obviously have your perspective and all I can share is what I saw firsthand for about 20 years everyday.
I'll secon Keets on this. At least from a NY perspective. While there may be big market makers out there still, the discount on Mint and Proof sets have fallen off a cliff. Dealers used to pay 15% back because they could 10% back from market makers. Now they pay 30% back because no one is paying more than 25% back for bulk lots.
Wondercoin is also right: you can sell large lots of specific dates of choice sets. But that's not helpful to either the customer or dealer who walks in to the shop with a date run of sets and you have to buy them all to get the one or two cherry sets.
There are some Mint sets that just have to be dumped into a Coinstar.
Anyone who sells mint sets at the corner shop deserves what he gets. Simply stated the offer will generally be less than face value even if the lot contains better dates like the '70, '73 etc.
Knowledgeable collectors do not sell many coins at the corner shop and certainly not moderns.
PUH-LEASE. This response shows absolute ignorance of the majority of modern collections. Where do you want the "knowledgeable collector" to go with their Mint Sets? There is no place where he will get more than the corner shop. You are talking about common, inexpensive items that NO ONE is going to pay full bid to acquire. If you have one cherry-picked set and can get it to another collector who appreciates it, congratulations. Most sellers don't have one or several cherry-picked sets, they have dozens of widgets.
The offer will be, as Keets and I have stated, 30% of bid. Do the math for the dealer. I just saw a collection of proof sets at a "corner store". He had worked them up: a box containing about 30 to 40 proof sets. The dealer paid 30% back of bid which came to $280. He was going to drive them 20 minutes to the local market maker who is paying 25% back, so he was getting $310 for what amounts to 90 minutes work.
Alternatively, your "knowledgeable buyer" can run around for days or weeks trying to find someone to pay them full bid which would be about $360. It is only worth it if the "knowledgeable buyer" is not at all knowledgeable about math and economics.
You are talking about common, inexpensive items that NO ONE is going to pay full bid to acquire.
when we would buy Proof/Mint Sets they came to us in 2-3 different ways: the odds-and-ends group of a few to 10-15 sets of no specific dates, date runs that start at no specific date and end the same, date runs from 1965 or earlier complete up to today.
if we are talking about 10-15 sets or anywhere up to 100 or more there is no reasonable, feasible place or way to sell those for anywhere near GreySheet bid no matter how choice they are. it is a commodity that is bought back like members are saying, 30% back. you can shop around that Cherry-picked 1970 Mint Set but don't expect to get much more than $11-12 for it, that just ain't gonna happen.
these Modern Mint/Proof Sets are a failed "investment" that has been losing ground for decades. please, anyone who wants to, provide us with sales data of these sets selling anywhere near GreySheet bid in bulk.
PUH-LEASE. This response shows absolute ignorance of the majority of modern collections. Where do you want the "knowledgeable collector" to go with their Mint Sets? There is no place where he will get more than the corner shop. You are talking about common, inexpensive items that NO ONE is going to pay full bid to acquire. If you have one cherry-picked set and can get it to another collector who appreciates it, congratulations. Most sellers don't have one or several cherry-picked sets, they have dozens of widgets.
Are you seriously telling me that if the best a knowledge collector can get for a mint set with $4.82 face value is $3.50 at the corner shop then he'll sell it there?
Knowledgeable collectors might be the ones cutting the Ikes out of a $4 set and selling them for $6 wholesale.
Nobody is going to package up an inexpensive set and ship it across the country for a little better price either.
Modern collectors are just accustomed to buying rare coins for a song and then having to sell them to another modern or spend them. Registry collectors don't sell MS-66 '70-D's at the corner shop either. They'll hear a lecture about how there are millions out there and no demand at all.
@keets said: You are talking about common, inexpensive items that NO ONE is going to pay full bid to acquire.
when we would buy Proof/Mint Sets they came to us in 2-3 different ways: the odds-and-ends group of a few to 10-15 sets of no specific dates, date runs that start at no specific date and end the same, date runs from 1965 or earlier complete up to today.
if we are talking about 10-15 sets or anywhere up to 100 or more there is no reasonable, feasible place or way to sell those for anywhere near GreySheet bid no matter how choice they are. it is a commodity that is bought back like members are saying, 30% back. you can shop around that Cherry-picked 1970 Mint Set but don't expect to get much more than $11-12 for it, that just ain't gonna happen.
these Modern Mint/Proof Sets are a failed "investment" that has been losing ground for decades. please, anyone who wants to, provide us with sales data of these sets selling anywhere near GreySheet bid in bulk.
Arizona Coin is paying 75- 95% of bid on most mint sets right now. They're a great buyer with a good check but there are higher buyers.
As I implied before; much of the reason bids are so low on mint sets is that so many are bad. You simply can't afford to offer strong money when large percentages are going to be bad. Littleton is paying bid on '70 sm dt sets but they'll return sets if there are very many bad coins in them.
Bid prices are not really reflective of supply and demand but the quality of the sets actually on the market. This will become increasingly apparent going forward.
What you don't realize is that the set that bids at $4.00 can be sold (wholesaled) in pieces for 8 or $9 if all the coins are fair quality. "Fair quality" has nothing to do with Gems. They merely need to be chBU. Few people have any idea how these markets work because they have no familiarity with the coins or the sets.
PUH-LEASE. This response shows absolute ignorance of the majority of modern collections. Where do you want the "knowledgeable collector" to go with their Mint Sets? There is no place where he will get more than the corner shop. You are talking about common, inexpensive items that NO ONE is going to pay full bid to acquire. If you have one cherry-picked set and can get it to another collector who appreciates it, congratulations. Most sellers don't have one or several cherry-picked sets, they have dozens of widgets.
Are you seriously telling me that if the best a knowledge collector can get for a mint set with $4.82 face value is $3.50 at the corner shop then he'll sell it there?
Knowledgeable collectors might be the ones cutting the Ikes out of a $4 set and selling them for $6 wholesale.
Nobody is going to package up an inexpensive set and ship it across the country for a little better price either.
Modern collectors are just accustomed to buying rare coins for a song and then having to sell them to another modern or spend them. Registry collectors don't sell MS-66 '70-D's at the corner shop either. They'll hear a lecture about how there are millions out there and no demand at all.
Bid on 80 and 81 sets is not 4.82. I don't know anyone who has offered 3.50 on those sets.
If you want ti pay me 10% back of bid, i'll send you hundreds of Mint sets and you'll be rich
Arizona Coin is paying 75- 95% of bid on most mint sets right now.........................Littleton is paying bid on '70 sm dt sets but they'll return sets if there are very many bad coins in them.
Sam, you probably know that these buyers have "bids" for certain dates and will pay for those date if the Sets are Gem. you probably also know that the 30% back we've been talking about is for pretty much any set that's complete with the outer envelope that walks in. Littleton is well known to pay strong but they are so restrictive that it can be hard to sell to them. we used ACE for pricing but never sold them anything: I would assume they'd be similar and the postage on a large lot package would eat into that 5-15% advantage.
most things are pretty equal when they actually get examined.
my last word on this is simple: the Modern Mint/Proof Set market is a dead and dying proposition. the main thing stopping people from selling what they have is the loss they'll entail.
@keets said: Marking the end of an era, it was the last of all circulating-issue United States coinage made with a silver composition
this sounds good on its face except for the fact that it wasn't issued as a circulating coin, it was only issued in 1970 Mint Sets. to my way of thinking the distinction of "last circulating silver issue" belongs to the 1969-D Kennedy Half-Dollar.
I'll have to agree on this point. the 1970 D might be a business strike or a "circulating quality" coin, but I never considered it a circulating coin any more than other mint-set-only coin.
(Most of the various golden dollars may or may not fall into the same category depending on one's perspective. The availability in bulk in bags and rolls might allow them to be called circulating coins even though they were never released through normal channels.)
Sam, you probably know that these buyers have "bids" for certain dates and will pay for those date if the Sets are Gem.
No!
This simply isn't true. I'm sure ACE will take just about any sets (even tarnished) unless it looks like you went through and pulled out the ugliest and most tarnished sets for them. They'll take just about any random mixture at their advertised buy price.
you probably also know that the 30% back we've been talking about is for pretty much any set that's complete with the outer envelope that walks in. Littleton is well known to pay strong but they are so restrictive that it can be hard to sell to them. we used ACE for pricing but never sold them anything: I would assume they'd be similar and the postage on a large lot package would eat into that 5-15% advantage.
Littleton is a strong buyer for lots of properly graded moderns. If you had 100 random 1970 sm dt mint sets in original condition I'm sure they'd cut you a check for full bid ($4000) and keep them all. But nobody has anything like this now days. Sets are tarnished now and they won't take large numbers of tarnished sets and they won't take culls. They won't take sets that have been picked over for 50 years. They want nice clean sets in ORIGINAL condition or close to it.
The corner shop doesn't set prices for coins any longer. There is bid and there is ask and most people (even collectors) can buy at ask and sell at bid. There's still "retail which is 50% or 100% more than ask. If you don't know how much you are paying then you're probably paying retail.
most things are pretty equal when they actually get examined.
>
Again, no.
Some 1970 mint sets are still pristine but most of them still in the plastic are tarnished. Even among pristine ('70) sets about one (packet) in 300 is Gem, 5% are choice, 50% are typical, and 40+% are substandard. 5-% are dogs.
Most people have never seen a Gem set and wouldn't notice one if they did.
Gem coins are scarce and there would be almost no Gem sets except most years somebody was helping these to come together.
my last word on this is simple: the Modern Mint/Proof Set market is a dead and dying proposition. the main thing stopping people from selling what they have is the loss they'll entail.
>
The sets are dying faster than ever. Well... ...more accurately the attrition rate is higher than ever. They would be going faster than ever but there aren't enough of them left for that. And this might be why Ike prices are going up so much.
Again, I had nearly 5,000 proof sets shipped to me dated 1973-1978 alone in the past roughly (90) days. Not a single set returned, paid full bid for decent sets and, at most, 10% back on the spotted ones. Anyone with quantity of these dates knows where to find me! This market is alive and well. Wondercoin.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
@keets said:
the 1970 D might be a business strike or a "circulating quality" coin, but I never considered it a circulating coin any more than other mint-set-only coin.
The 1970-D half has a different history from other non-circulating circulation strikes. The Mint had been intending to strike that date for circulation, but was waiting for authorization to begin striking half dollars in the same non-silver composition as the quarters and dimes. Late in the year, when the changeover in composition still hadn't been authorized, the Mint decided to strike enough halves in silver to supply the annual mint sets.
Virtually all Kennedy half collectors at the time considered the 1970-D half necessary to complete their sets.
Many other coins not intended for circulation are today considered integral to uncirculated and circulated sets. The 1879-1890 halves, for instance. Small quantities were struck each year mainly for collectors desiring to continue date runs, but they were not released into circulation by the government. Some were spent later by those collectors or their heirs.
@PCGS_SocialMedia said:
In a recent article we explore the importance of the 1970-D Kennedy Half Dollar. Marking the end of an era, it was the last of all circulating-issue United States coinage made with a silver composition. The mintage of 2,150,000 pieces, makes it the lowest for business strike Kennedy Half Dollars from 1964 to 2005.
I remember back in the early '90s when San Diego had a coin show (!) I was offered an ultra attractive smooth lustrous yellow-toned PCGS MS66 1970-D for about $350.00
Are they not about the same price today?
I purchased this lot today, and noticed the Kennedy was PL....however; there was residue from film on obverse, and reverse. It was a dirty cherry pick. The technical grade I believe is at MS66. I soaked coin for 1 minute in tarn x, and then rinsed with distilled water before an acetone soak. A lot of residue was removed but there is some remaining. Would our host be able to remove the rest? Thanks.
Original lot purchase for $15
Original obverse view in film. Mark near chin is cut in plastic.
Original reverse view in film.
After removal from film, and dipped in tarnx for 1 minute, distilled water, then acetone
After removal from film, and dipped in tarnx for 1 minute, distilled water, then acetone.
@braddick said:
I remember back in the early '90s when San Diego had a coin show (!) I was offered an ultra attractive smooth lustrous yellow-toned PCGS MS66 1970-D for about $350.00
Are they not about the same price today?
There are six for sale on eBay now, $290-$300. There are five completed listings that sold for under $200. According to the BLS inflation calculator, $350 in 1993 = $630 today.
@Kkathyl said:
InGod we Trust. Is the R a partial it’s hard to see that close up. Either way yes it is last of the 40% silver issue then sets had Ike’s
For some reason the 1971 and 1972 mint sets and proof sets did not include Ike dollars. Uncirculated and proof 40% silver Ikes were available as individual coins from the Mint. Starting in 1973, clad Ikes were included in mint sets and proof sets, and ironically those were the only ways to obtain clad Ikes dated 1973. None were released for circulation.
Comments
I am interested in you opinions and observations whether you agree with me or not.
I have one. It was easy to find and it would be easy to buy anothet.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
This one is kinda, sorta, maybe semi PL, jmo.
I missed this part of your post, hence my late reply.
The statistical odds of finding a gradeable PCGS MS-66 are somewhat low for this coin but that doesn't mean much of anything since it isn't actually scarce.
Your statement that an MS-66 is being "given away" just goes to show how far apart your perception of this coinage is from the overwhelming majority of the collector base. This coin isn't cheap for the supply but relatively expensive compared to most of the available alternatives in the same price range, even considering potential duplicates. PCGS has graded 615 at this level or higher (10 "+" and 15 in 67) while presumably some proportion of the 153 graded by NGC are also comparable. Recent sales on Heritage (roughly last 12 months) range from somewhat under $200 to almost $300.
If you think the price is a "give away", how much do you believe this coin should be worth?
PCGS has graded a little over 7,000 pieces of this date for all grades. Not very many, is it? As such, I'd think the overwhelming majority of the collector base is busy filling holes in their Danscos, not much worrying about whether it's worth sending in the coin they're considering to see if it might grade MS66.
Exactly,
Going by the available data, around 99% of Kennedy collectors are either low budget or it's a sideline collection, not their primary interest. Price of an MS-66 is four to five times an MS-65 based upon my limited review. If anyone wants a nice example that badly, presumably there is a t least a low proportion of the 4,000+ in MS-65 that are comparable.
Due to the price variance and relative quality difference, most collectors take the sensible approach and use the balance to buy something else. Transition between the Kennedy series and other coinage is overwhelmingly a one way street, except among lower budget collectors.
It's only hard to spend 2 or $300 on a good pair of shoes because products now days are hard to find "good".
It would be very difficult to compute the cost of driving around, walking, lifting, screening, and sundry other activities that were necessary to find a '70-D of this calibre back in the 1970's when there were still lots and lots and lots of nice pristine sets everywhere you went. Coin shows could have hundreds but they weren't the best place to look because some were a little picked over even in those days. Shops would have a dozen or two sets and many of these were found in unopened boxes of five. ALL the sets were pristine in those days and you could easily buy them by the wheelbarrow full if you were willing to pay the price. MS-65's were abundant at about 2%. For years I thought this was the upper end of the scale.
In those days the value of mint sets prices exceeded the total value of the coins in them and often by a very wide margin. Few people could just afford to buy quantities and dispose of the less desirable coins because it was extremely expensive. Over the years this reversed. In the '70's it was a lot of work and cost to cherry pick a Gem even though pristine sets were common. Now sets are hard to find, most are tarnished, and most groupings of sets are already cherry picked.
You might think that this means all those "cherries" are sitting out there just waiting for higher prices because there's no attrition on moderns right? WRONG. The cherries were "consumed" very much like the other coins and those stored in the plastic also have tarnish problems.
If you had told me in 1980 that a MS-66 '70-D half dollar would be worth only about $75 in 1980 dollars in 2019 I would have quit looking for them. It wouldn't have been profitable. The costs associated with finding and storing them in safety deposit boxes would be prohibitive. Sets were expensive and the money could be invested elsewhere. So, yes, I consider $300 for an MS-66 to be a gift. Someone else probably did a lot of work and incurred a lot of cost to assure that coin sits in an MS-66 slab. The grader did a lot of work and sometimes conservers did a lot of work.
Given what I know now I'd rather be on the receiving end of this gift,
Going by the available data, around 99% of Kennedy collectors are either low budget or it's a sideline collection, not their primary interest.
I would think this is accurate. most buyers that I encountered were primarily interested in filling a hole, not overall grade of the coins they were buying, including the subject coin. I don't know and can't know how many 1970 Mint Sets are still intact but would imagine it's probably around 2 million. most of the 1970-D's in those sets are MS63-64 coins but there are higher grade coins also, the graded data we have supports that. it's just a matter of a collector being willing to patiently hunt for the right coin.
And, that is, quite frankly, the only reason I screen a few hundred sets a year now tops (as opposed to 1,000’s of sets per year) on the 1970 mint sets.
This says nothing about what my primary or secondary interests are, or whether I love this series more or less than another series. It simply says, it is too difficult to find MS66 coins in these sets to make the “hunt” worthwhile any more.
Every now and again, I get to a safe box that has a couple raw MS66 or better 70-D 50C in it that I tucked away 30-35 years ago and they are such a sight to see (especially the deep proof like ones) and I still vaguely remember the “hunts” where they came from.
Wondercoin
@keets The original number of 1970-D half dollars was 2,150,000 pieces, so that must have been the number of Unc. sets too (actually, I looked that up in the Red Book, and there is a discrepancy of 110,000 sets/coins - very odd).
If I were a betting man, I'd wager that 50% of the Unc. sets have been cut up. Once about 1990 I bought 30 of the 1970-D halves, cut from the rest of the set but still in the Mint wrappers from Mr. Julian Jarvis (a well-regarded Midwest dealer name from the past). Not the only time I did something like that.
It was quicker and easier for me to find a nice 1970-D half dollar than it was for you to write that post.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I doubt anybody would refuse the gift of a MS66 1970-D half. And for those who are willing to pay for one, there are 11 out of the 590 that PCGS has graded to choose from on eBay right now. Not that hard to find, it would seem.
I "made" quite a few of the 66's years ago....early-mid 1990s.
Then a 6 was a huge score, and if you (or the graders, lol) missed, you still made money on the 5's.
I did notice though that PCGS preferred the deep frosty luster to the PL-ish coins.
I would also strongly agree with @BillDugan1959 that at least 50% of 1970 mint sets have been cut up for album coins/rolls of 70-D halves.
On a separate but related note, and admittedly without looking up pop numbers, the 72 Philly issue in well struck lustrous 66 was really tough for me to find or "make."
I'll secon Keets on this. At least from a NY perspective. While there may be big market makers out there still, the discount on Mint and Proof sets have fallen off a cliff. Dealers used to pay 15% back because they could 10% back from market makers. Now they pay 30% back because no one is paying more than 25% back for bulk lots.
Wondercoin is also right: you can sell large lots of specific dates of choice sets. But that's not helpful to either the customer or dealer who walks in to the shop with a date run of sets and you have to buy them all to get the one or two cherry sets.
There are some Mint sets that just have to be dumped into a Coinstar.
I sent in 5 of them a few years ago, that i cut from mint sets, to test my grading skills. Got 2 ms 65 and 3 ms64. Im still sitting on some but most look ms63 - ms64. I agree that a lot of sets have been cut up, and i believe this will continue for some time as the price of the coins sold individually exceeds the cost of the set as a whole.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Your reply is irrelevant to my question. You didn't even answer it.
What you wrote might be relevant if the only alternative was for someone to cherrypick rolls as you and Wondercoin do but it isn't. This is assuming they want the coin that badly in this grade which only the profile I described does. Anyone can go out and buy this coin in PCGS MS-66 on short notice, probably right now, any time and all the time.
The actual relevant question is, what else can a prospective buyer buy with the same money and why would they choose this coin (an MS-66 or any other Kennedy) over comparably priced or cheaper alternatives?
You didn't answer this question because you know that given this coin's attributes, it isn't competitive to most collectors even at current prices, much less far higher. If you had answered, I can anticipate you would tell me it should be worth $500, $1000, $2000 or even more right now.
I don't know and can't know how many 1970 Mint Sets are still intact but would imagine it's probably around 2 million.
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You might want to check and see what a 1 1/2% attrition rate would do on two million mintage even if no one had ever cut one up on purpose. More than a quarter million have been lost just to fire and flood etc.
The vast majority of '70 sm dt cents were removed from these sets and people don't keep the set minus a single coin. If they did they couldn't sell it.
I know many thousands of sets that have been cut by wholesalers and promoters.
This date has one of the lowest aggregate attrition from the era and I'd be surprised if there are many more than 500,000 left. Consider that in the '70's groupings of mint sets were all from the '70's and earlier. In the '80's about half were '70's and half '80's. In the '90's a quarter were '70's, half '80's, and a quarter '90's. As time has gone by the sellers simply weren't old enough to have been buying mint sets in the late '60's/ early '70's. Now days mint set runs that come into coin shops almost invariably BEGIN after 1977. These are the supply except the old picked and tarnished sets that have been traded back and forth on the market.
I tend to estimate high so half a million is probably a very liberal guess. And it's an educated guess by someone who has watched the mint set market and the mint set pieces market since about 1970.
Nothing made by man lasts. They are lost through neglect and intent. They are lost through misadventure and various types of accidents. Remember the 1913 V-nickel lost in a car accident? But 1970 mint sets won't come back together after someone cuts out a FS nickel to send in for grading.
I know you've said this same thing before and I couldn't dissuade you from your belief then either but that was nearly 15 years ago and there are another quarter million fewer sets since then. These sets will be destroyed even faster if people start collecting moderns in meaningful numbers. Indeed, if people just looked at their sets many more would be cut up and put into circulation because they are tarnished. Waiting ten years to look at them won't make them any prettier. They get worse in time once they tarnish and the only thing that save them is to soak them in acetone or 91% alcohol BEFORE they get too bad.
Anyone who sells mint sets at the corner shop deserves what he gets. Simply stated the offer will generally be less than face value even if the lot contains better dates like the '70, '73 etc.
Knowledgeable collectors do not sell many coins at the corner shop and certainly not moderns.
I haven't been on this forum long but I arrive at this type of conclusion by using relative prices, TPG data or other estimates of supply, and anecdotal data from comments on coin forums and the numismatic press. This is aside from my own personal experience which is secondary.
It's evident that the comment you quoted is correct and I don't need to survey or ask anyone to prove it. Any collector can afford this series in "high quality" or if they can't, can't afford to be a collector at all. There are no practical supply constraints unlike with many other coins (such as those I collect) and the existing supply turns over regularly precisely because collectors do not have a high preference for it, except as I described.
If collectors really liked this series a lot more, whether in a particular quality or generically, they'd be buying it at much higher prices because it would be worth a lot more right now.
The evidence proves they aren't. And the reason they aren't is because it's a less advanced form of collecting than the coins and series which bigger budget buyers actually prefer. Collectors who start with this series transition to other more challenging and interesting series at least 99% of the time, budgets permitting. Concurrently, there is virtually zero movement in the other direction.
No one is going to see the day when any noticeable number of collectors who collect ancients, medieval, early US federal or the type of coins I collect starts buying Kennedy's as a replacement at any material financial outlay. It's not going to happen because it's contrary to collector motivation.
Knowledgeable collectors do not sell many coins at the corner shop and certainly not moderns.
Knowledgeable collectors do not collect Modern Proof/Mint Sets.
PUH-LEASE. This response shows absolute ignorance of the majority of modern collections. Where do you want the "knowledgeable collector" to go with their Mint Sets? There is no place where he will get more than the corner shop. You are talking about common, inexpensive items that NO ONE is going to pay full bid to acquire. If you have one cherry-picked set and can get it to another collector who appreciates it, congratulations. Most sellers don't have one or several cherry-picked sets, they have dozens of widgets.
The offer will be, as Keets and I have stated, 30% of bid. Do the math for the dealer. I just saw a collection of proof sets at a "corner store". He had worked them up: a box containing about 30 to 40 proof sets. The dealer paid 30% back of bid which came to $280. He was going to drive them 20 minutes to the local market maker who is paying 25% back, so he was getting $310 for what amounts to 90 minutes work.
Alternatively, your "knowledgeable buyer" can run around for days or weeks trying to find someone to pay them full bid which would be about $360. It is only worth it if the "knowledgeable buyer" is not at all knowledgeable about math and economics.
You are talking about common, inexpensive items that NO ONE is going to pay full bid to acquire.
when we would buy Proof/Mint Sets they came to us in 2-3 different ways: the odds-and-ends group of a few to 10-15 sets of no specific dates, date runs that start at no specific date and end the same, date runs from 1965 or earlier complete up to today.
if we are talking about 10-15 sets or anywhere up to 100 or more there is no reasonable, feasible place or way to sell those for anywhere near GreySheet bid no matter how choice they are. it is a commodity that is bought back like members are saying, 30% back. you can shop around that Cherry-picked 1970 Mint Set but don't expect to get much more than $11-12 for it, that just ain't gonna happen.
these Modern Mint/Proof Sets are a failed "investment" that has been losing ground for decades. please, anyone who wants to, provide us with sales data of these sets selling anywhere near GreySheet bid in bulk.
Are you seriously telling me that if the best a knowledge collector can get for a mint set with $4.82 face value is $3.50 at the corner shop then he'll sell it there?
Knowledgeable collectors might be the ones cutting the Ikes out of a $4 set and selling them for $6 wholesale.
Nobody is going to package up an inexpensive set and ship it across the country for a little better price either.
Modern collectors are just accustomed to buying rare coins for a song and then having to sell them to another modern or spend them. Registry collectors don't sell MS-66 '70-D's at the corner shop either. They'll hear a lecture about how there are millions out there and no demand at all.
Arizona Coin is paying 75- 95% of bid on most mint sets right now. They're a great buyer with a good check but there are higher buyers.
As I implied before; much of the reason bids are so low on mint sets is that so many are bad. You simply can't afford to offer strong money when large percentages are going to be bad. Littleton is paying bid on '70 sm dt sets but they'll return sets if there are very many bad coins in them.
Bid prices are not really reflective of supply and demand but the quality of the sets actually on the market. This will become increasingly apparent going forward.
What you don't realize is that the set that bids at $4.00 can be sold (wholesaled) in pieces for 8 or $9 if all the coins are fair quality. "Fair quality" has nothing to do with Gems. They merely need to be chBU. Few people have any idea how these markets work because they have no familiarity with the coins or the sets.
Bid on 80 and 81 sets is not 4.82. I don't know anyone who has offered 3.50 on those sets.
If you want ti pay me 10% back of bid, i'll send you hundreds of Mint sets and you'll be rich
Arizona Coin is paying 75- 95% of bid on most mint sets right now.........................Littleton is paying bid on '70 sm dt sets but they'll return sets if there are very many bad coins in them.
Sam, you probably know that these buyers have "bids" for certain dates and will pay for those date if the Sets are Gem. you probably also know that the 30% back we've been talking about is for pretty much any set that's complete with the outer envelope that walks in. Littleton is well known to pay strong but they are so restrictive that it can be hard to sell to them. we used ACE for pricing but never sold them anything: I would assume they'd be similar and the postage on a large lot package would eat into that 5-15% advantage.
most things are pretty equal when they actually get examined.
my last word on this is simple: the Modern Mint/Proof Set market is a dead and dying proposition. the main thing stopping people from selling what they have is the loss they'll entail.
I'll have to agree on this point. the 1970 D might be a business strike or a "circulating quality" coin, but I never considered it a circulating coin any more than other mint-set-only coin.
(Most of the various golden dollars may or may not fall into the same category depending on one's perspective. The availability in bulk in bags and rolls might allow them to be called circulating coins even though they were never released through normal channels.)
No!
This simply isn't true. I'm sure ACE will take just about any sets (even tarnished) unless it looks like you went through and pulled out the ugliest and most tarnished sets for them. They'll take just about any random mixture at their advertised buy price.
Littleton is a strong buyer for lots of properly graded moderns. If you had 100 random 1970 sm dt mint sets in original condition I'm sure they'd cut you a check for full bid ($4000) and keep them all. But nobody has anything like this now days. Sets are tarnished now and they won't take large numbers of tarnished sets and they won't take culls. They won't take sets that have been picked over for 50 years. They want nice clean sets in ORIGINAL condition or close to it.
The corner shop doesn't set prices for coins any longer. There is bid and there is ask and most people (even collectors) can buy at ask and sell at bid. There's still "retail which is 50% or 100% more than ask. If you don't know how much you are paying then you're probably paying retail.
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Again, no.
Some 1970 mint sets are still pristine but most of them still in the plastic are tarnished. Even among pristine ('70) sets about one (packet) in 300 is Gem, 5% are choice, 50% are typical, and 40+% are substandard. 5-% are dogs.
Most people have never seen a Gem set and wouldn't notice one if they did.
Gem coins are scarce and there would be almost no Gem sets except most years somebody was helping these to come together.
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The sets are dying faster than ever. Well... ...more accurately the attrition rate is higher than ever. They would be going faster than ever but there aren't enough of them left for that. And this might be why Ike prices are going up so much.
Demand meet Supply.
Again, I had nearly 5,000 proof sets shipped to me dated 1973-1978 alone in the past roughly (90) days. Not a single set returned, paid full bid for decent sets and, at most, 10% back on the spotted ones. Anyone with quantity of these dates knows where to find me! This market is alive and well. Wondercoin.
The 1970-D half has a different history from other non-circulating circulation strikes. The Mint had been intending to strike that date for circulation, but was waiting for authorization to begin striking half dollars in the same non-silver composition as the quarters and dimes. Late in the year, when the changeover in composition still hadn't been authorized, the Mint decided to strike enough halves in silver to supply the annual mint sets.
Virtually all Kennedy half collectors at the time considered the 1970-D half necessary to complete their sets.
Many other coins not intended for circulation are today considered integral to uncirculated and circulated sets. The 1879-1890 halves, for instance. Small quantities were struck each year mainly for collectors desiring to continue date runs, but they were not released into circulation by the government. Some were spent later by those collectors or their heirs.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Here is my beauty sorry about holder but it’s nice so hope your onto something
1970-s
1970d Kennedy are clad or 40% no 90%
Here is checklist
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
InGod we Trust. Is the R a partial it’s hard to see that close up. Either way yes it is last of the 40% silver issue then sets had Ike’s
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
I remember back in the early '90s when San Diego had a coin show (!) I was offered an ultra attractive smooth lustrous yellow-toned PCGS MS66 1970-D for about $350.00
Are they not about the same price today?
peacockcoins
I purchased this lot today, and noticed the Kennedy was PL....however; there was residue from film on obverse, and reverse. It was a dirty cherry pick. The technical grade I believe is at MS66. I soaked coin for 1 minute in tarn x, and then rinsed with distilled water before an acetone soak. A lot of residue was removed but there is some remaining. Would our host be able to remove the rest? Thanks.
Original lot purchase for $15
Original obverse view in film. Mark near chin is cut in plastic.
Original reverse view in film.
After removal from film, and dipped in tarnx for 1 minute, distilled water, then acetone
After removal from film, and dipped in tarnx for 1 minute, distilled water, then acetone.
There are six for sale on eBay now, $290-$300. There are five completed listings that sold for under $200. According to the BLS inflation calculator, $350 in 1993 = $630 today.
For some reason the 1971 and 1972 mint sets and proof sets did not include Ike dollars. Uncirculated and proof 40% silver Ikes were available as individual coins from the Mint. Starting in 1973, clad Ikes were included in mint sets and proof sets, and ironically those were the only ways to obtain clad Ikes dated 1973. None were released for circulation.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Good information!