I laugh at the people that say the stock market is manipulated by the Fed, but they don't participate in the manipulation. The easiest way to make money is to jump on the coattails of the manipulation. EZ PZ
@coinpalice said:
a unemployment rate of under 4 percent is a sign of a good economy, and people are spending money which is another good sign
Check the labor participating rate for another view of unemployment. Have not checked it lately but since the GFC, it has consistently been the lowest in about 40 years. It is (or was) particularly noticeable among men aged 25-54. The difference between pre and post 2008 isn't necessarily due to most being retired or living off of their savings, given that most people have so little.
That's worked principally because you and I have been living through the greatest credit bubble in the history of civilization, my entire adult life. I date its origin back to 1982.
Rebalancing with bonds is close to its end game, except for the believer in perpetual stable credit conditions or negative interest rates. I'd argue that credit quality is the worst ever because indebtedness is at an all-time high, much worse than 2007 on the eve of the GFC. It just isn't evident yet because of excessive overconfidence, also from the credit bubble. This applies from the top to the bottom of the credit spectrum, practically across the board.
US Stocks? Historically overpriced except when measured by some fake P/E measure. Not as bad as January 2000 but definitely no better than October 2007 and definitely worse than any other time.
Don't know what anyone else's outlook is but when the current credit cycle turns, low quality debt ( which is most of it, not just "junk") is almost certainly going to get hammered, worse than 2008.
I'd expect stock prices to get cut by more than half, though still far above early 2009 levels - in this credit cycle. Corporate credit issues will likely mean large scale layoffs in most industries as profitability of weak credits plummets.
Similar script elsewhere, as fundamentals aren't exactly that great, though stock valuations aren't nearly as stretched since most foreign markets have either been dead money or underwater for years.
I'm selling a lot of stuff to govt employees. They seem to be doing just fine. I have noticed many more people( myself incl) seem to have much more foldable in their pocket than they did four years ago.
But, I also see that a lot of people who have jobs and are getting by are a Friday missed paycheck away from disaster. A lot of people in SoCal are on the street living in their car & are couch surfing. Maybe 100,000+. Since the 2007/8 freefall, I have to carry a side arm on my 5 acres in SoCal + two German Shepherds as backup. 100-200 people camping in the river two blocks from me. Every storm, the chopper flies up & down the river for 50 miles advising the campers on the loudspeaker to move to higher ground. If you live in other parts of the USA perhaps you've observed photos of the crisis.
There definitely is more money floating around. Also perilous poverty. This will not end well.
@streeter said:
I'm selling a lot of stuff to govt employees. They seem to be doing just fine. I have noticed many more people( myself incl) seem to have much more foldable in their pocket than they did four years ago.
But, I also see that a lot of people who have jobs and are getting by are a Friday missed paycheck away from disaster. A lot of people in SoCal are on the street living in their car & are couch surfing. Maybe 100,000+. Since the 2007/8 freefall, I have to carry a side arm on my 5 acres in SoCal + two German Shepherds as backup. 100-200 people camping in the river two blocks from me. Every storm, the chopper flies up & down the river for 50 miles advising the campers on the loudspeaker to move to higher ground. If you live in other parts of the USA perhaps you've observed photos of the crisis.
There definitely is more money floating around. Also perilous poverty. This will not end well.
Many (maybe most) people associate with an economic circle similar to theirs. So those who are a white collar professional will mostly see people who appear (key word here) to be doing well or at least better. Not universally true but often so.
Most people are either broke or have very limited economic resources. Take a look at recent reports of "subprime" credit for a good indication; credit cards and auto loans at minimum. Delinquency and loss rates are approaching or blown past the GFC levels and the economy is supposedly booming. These numbers don't lie. If the economy was so great for the average person, no way this should be happening.
Same story for net worth data. Based upon my recollection of the Federal Reserve's tri-annual Survey of Consumer Finances, median net worth is LESS now than 20 years ago or if I am wrong, marginally higher. This is in nominal dollars. Constant movement of people up or down the economic scale and new entrants as the population ages but yet another indication that most aren't doing well, at all.
You heard Warren Buffet's saying about the tide going out? Well, when the next recession hits, what's going to happen to these people who are barely making ends meet during good times? Like you said, it won't end well and this will just be the beginning of the end.
The fact that most people don't have any money in savings can't be solely contributed to some idea that people are just squeaking by. It seems that most people live beyond their means and would be in the same situation if they were to get some sort of windfall.
I work with at least 2 people whose actual living expenses are much less than what they make and constantly complain about being broke. They have little to nothing in savings but eat out lunch every day, smoke cigarettes(almost $10 per pack), go to concerts, go out at night drinking etc.
It’s a factor, helps folks 401K balances. Unfortunately, a large segment of the US population does not invest or is unable to save to take advantage. Unemployment at an all time low is helping, but still the upper middle class and rich are benefiting the most.
@PatsGuy5000 said:
It’s a factor, helps folks 401K balances. Unfortunately, a large segment of the US population does not invest or is unable to save to take advantage. Unemployment at an all time low is helping, but still the upper middle class and rich are benefiting the most.
Unemployment at an all time low? 15 million of the workers who gave up and dropped out of the labor force during the great recession still haven't come back. 20% of the "employed" only hold part time jobs and lets not even get started with how many people who once held decent middle class manufacturing jobs are now flipping big macs or stocking shelves down at the local china mart. Lets spin it, yeah employment is boomin lol
Unemployment at an all time low? 15 million of the workers who gave up and dropped out of the labor force during the great recession still haven't come back. 20% of the "employed" only hold part time jobs and lets not even get started with how many people who once held decent middle class manufacturing jobs are now flipping big macs or stocking shelves down at the local china mart. Lets spin it, yeah employment is boomin lol
Just stating what was stated on the news “lowest unemployment in 50 years”. Many are doing well in the Northeast, but I realize that is not the case in other parts of the country. Manufacturing is taking a big hit, now farming is as well. Automation and new technology will continue to move the work force in new directions.
Unemployment at an all time low? 15 million of the workers who gave up and dropped out of the labor force during the great recession still haven't come back. 20% of the "employed" only hold part time jobs and lets not even get started with how many people who once held decent middle class manufacturing jobs are now flipping big macs or stocking shelves down at the local china mart. Lets spin it, yeah employment is boomin lol
Just stating what was stated on the news “lowest unemployment in 50 years”. Many are doing well in the Northeast, but I realize that is not the case in other parts of the country. Manufacturing is taking a big hit, now farming is as well. Automation and new technology will continue to move the work force in new directions.
I live in the northeast, this place is a shell of what it once was. Nothing but abandoned factories and a bunch of opiod junkies. Automation has nothing to do with it. Billionaire politicians exploiting and offshoring cheap labor. Glad we won the trade war. It was the biggest win in the history of winning. lol
Just stating what was stated on the news “lowest unemployment in 50 years”. Many are doing well in the Northeast, but I realize that is not the case in other parts of the country. Manufacturing is taking a big hit, now farming is as well. Automation and new technology will continue to move the work force in new directions.
I live in the northeast, this place is a shell of what it once was. Nothing but abandoned factories and a bunch of opiod junkies. Automation has nothing to do with it. Billionaire politicians exploiting and offshoring cheap labor. Glad we won the trade war. It was the biggest win in the history of winning. lol
Unemployment at an all time low? 15 million of the workers who gave up and dropped out of the labor force during the great recession still haven't come back. 20% of the "employed" only hold part time jobs and lets not even get started with how many people who once held decent middle class manufacturing jobs are now flipping big macs or stocking shelves down at the local china mart. Lets spin it, yeah employment is boomin lol
Just stating what was stated on the news “lowest unemployment in 50 years”.
You need to be more selective in which "news" you believe in. You gotta remember that most "news" just reads us the gov. press releases. It's so much easier than investigative reporting.
Besides, they don't even calculate employment the way they did 10 years ago, let alone 50 years ago. If ya gonna compare apples you gotta have apples.
Unemployment at an all time low? 15 million of the workers who gave up and dropped out of the labor force during the great recession still haven't come back. 20% of the "employed" only hold part time jobs and lets not even get started with how many people who once held decent middle class manufacturing jobs are now flipping big macs or stocking shelves down at the local china mart. Lets spin it, yeah employment is boomin lol
Just stating what was stated on the news “lowest unemployment in 50 years”.
You need to be more selective in which "news" you believe in. You gotta remember that most "news" just reads us the gov. press releases. It's so much easier than investigative reporting.
Now you're learnin' derryb. Get out there and travel and investigate this wonderful country of ours, just as ive advocated for years and years. Lots and lots of great stuff going on. Could do better in some areas and a little hot in others but certainly not the gloom and doom coming from the basements of many "news" sources you cite. 7 million unfilled jobs out there. 7 MILLION!!!
@derryb said:
Most unemployed skilled laborers choose not to take those food industry jobs.
Have to somewhat agree here. At least in my part of the country, GM plant closes hundreds of $75K job gone, mills laying off due to the tariffs they claim, more $60K gone all replaced with these 7 million $8 jobs flipping burgers at macdonalds or stocking shelves at the newly opened Chinamart. Makin merica great they claim.
@bigjpst said:
The fact that most people don't have any money in savings can't be solely contributed to some idea that people are just squeaking by. It seems that most people live beyond their means and would be in the same situation if they were to get some sort of windfall.
I work with at least 2 people whose actual living expenses are much less than what they make and constantly complain about being broke. They have little to nothing in savings but eat out lunch every day, smoke cigarettes(almost $10 per pack), go to concerts, go out at night drinking etc.
I know more than a few persons like that. The dems never suggest how much individuals could change their financial destiny by making wiser choices.
Unemployment at an all time low? 15 million of the workers who gave up and dropped out of the labor force during the great recession still haven't come back. 20% of the "employed" only hold part time jobs and lets not even get started with how many people who once held decent middle class manufacturing jobs are now flipping big macs or stocking shelves down at the local china mart. Lets spin it, yeah employment is boomin lol
Just stating what was stated on the news “lowest unemployment in 50 years”.
You need to be more selective in which "news" you believe in. You gotta remember that most "news" just reads us the gov. press releases. It's so much easier than investigative reporting.
Now you're learnin' derryb. Get out there and travel and investigate this wonderful country of ours, just as ive advocated for years and years. Lots and lots of great stuff going on. Could do better in some areas and a little hot in others but certainly not the gloom and doom coming from the basements of many "news" sources you cite. 7 million unfilled jobs out there. 7 MILLION!!!
I have been reading on these boards for years and years how bad things are out there and a crash around the corner just like the 2008/2009 timeframe ...been hearing that for many years .
Meanwhile the same doomsayers many have missed perhaps the greatest bull market of all time.
I manage money. I earn money. I save money . I give away money. I collect money. I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
@derryb said:
Most unemployed skilled laborers choose not to take those food industry jobs.
This and the next post goes to show just how different things are regionally, and perhaps generationally.
In my area, there are far more "good" jobs than qualified applicants. Michigan and Florida should send all of their bioreactor engineers and purification scientists to either of the coasts 😉
@derryb said:
Most unemployed skilled laborers choose not to take those food industry jobs.
This and the next post goes to show just how different things are regionally, and perhaps generationally.
In my area, there are far more "good" jobs than qualified applicants. Michigan and Florida should send all of their bioreactor engineers and purification scientists to either of the coasts 😉
Valid point so long as a guy or gal doesn't mind living the dream of a left or right coast city chicken.
@derryb said:
Most unemployed skilled laborers choose not to take those food industry jobs.
This and the next post goes to show just how different things are regionally, and perhaps generationally.
In my area, there are far more "good" jobs than qualified applicants. Michigan and Florida should send all of their bioreactor engineers and purification scientists to either of the coasts 😉
Valid point so long as a guy or gal doesn't mind living the dream of a left or right coast city chicken.
You might be very surprised to learn about the opportunities to live practically any way you like, within a half hour from the coop.
Turn off your TV and internet feed and take a walk around.. if you don't appreciate what you see.. then you'd be a fool not to move somewhere else
@cohodk said:
Now you're learnin' derryb. Get out there and travel and investigate this wonderful country of ours, just as ive advocated for years and years. Lots and lots of great stuff going on. Could do better in some areas and a little hot in others but certainly not the gloom and doom coming from the basements of many "news" sources you cite. 7 million unfilled jobs out there. 7 MILLION!!!
remains an indicator of supply and demand of promises. Appears no one wants the promise of future delivery at the moment. Yet, they're beating down the door for immediate delivery.
Comments
to show how bad it is using their "good" data.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
I laugh at the people that say the stock market is manipulated by the Fed, but they don't participate in the manipulation. The easiest way to make money is to jump on the coattails of the manipulation. EZ PZ
I'll second that!
Check the labor participating rate for another view of unemployment. Have not checked it lately but since the GFC, it has consistently been the lowest in about 40 years. It is (or was) particularly noticeable among men aged 25-54. The difference between pre and post 2008 isn't necessarily due to most being retired or living off of their savings, given that most people have so little.
Truth....
https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Buy hold and rebalance
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
That's worked principally because you and I have been living through the greatest credit bubble in the history of civilization, my entire adult life. I date its origin back to 1982.
Rebalancing with bonds is close to its end game, except for the believer in perpetual stable credit conditions or negative interest rates. I'd argue that credit quality is the worst ever because indebtedness is at an all-time high, much worse than 2007 on the eve of the GFC. It just isn't evident yet because of excessive overconfidence, also from the credit bubble. This applies from the top to the bottom of the credit spectrum, practically across the board.
US Stocks? Historically overpriced except when measured by some fake P/E measure. Not as bad as January 2000 but definitely no better than October 2007 and definitely worse than any other time.
Don't know what anyone else's outlook is but when the current credit cycle turns, low quality debt ( which is most of it, not just "junk") is almost certainly going to get hammered, worse than 2008.
I'd expect stock prices to get cut by more than half, though still far above early 2009 levels - in this credit cycle. Corporate credit issues will likely mean large scale layoffs in most industries as profitability of weak credits plummets.
Similar script elsewhere, as fundamentals aren't exactly that great, though stock valuations aren't nearly as stretched since most foreign markets have either been dead money or underwater for years.
I'm selling a lot of stuff to govt employees. They seem to be doing just fine. I have noticed many more people( myself incl) seem to have much more foldable in their pocket than they did four years ago.
But, I also see that a lot of people who have jobs and are getting by are a Friday missed paycheck away from disaster. A lot of people in SoCal are on the street living in their car & are couch surfing. Maybe 100,000+. Since the 2007/8 freefall, I have to carry a side arm on my 5 acres in SoCal + two German Shepherds as backup. 100-200 people camping in the river two blocks from me. Every storm, the chopper flies up & down the river for 50 miles advising the campers on the loudspeaker to move to higher ground. If you live in other parts of the USA perhaps you've observed photos of the crisis.
There definitely is more money floating around. Also perilous poverty. This will not end well.
Many (maybe most) people associate with an economic circle similar to theirs. So those who are a white collar professional will mostly see people who appear (key word here) to be doing well or at least better. Not universally true but often so.
Most people are either broke or have very limited economic resources. Take a look at recent reports of "subprime" credit for a good indication; credit cards and auto loans at minimum. Delinquency and loss rates are approaching or blown past the GFC levels and the economy is supposedly booming. These numbers don't lie. If the economy was so great for the average person, no way this should be happening.
Same story for net worth data. Based upon my recollection of the Federal Reserve's tri-annual Survey of Consumer Finances, median net worth is LESS now than 20 years ago or if I am wrong, marginally higher. This is in nominal dollars. Constant movement of people up or down the economic scale and new entrants as the population ages but yet another indication that most aren't doing well, at all.
You heard Warren Buffet's saying about the tide going out? Well, when the next recession hits, what's going to happen to these people who are barely making ends meet during good times? Like you said, it won't end well and this will just be the beginning of the end.
Definitely an accurate indicator of "close to a trade deal"
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
The fact that most people don't have any money in savings can't be solely contributed to some idea that people are just squeaking by. It seems that most people live beyond their means and would be in the same situation if they were to get some sort of windfall.
I work with at least 2 people whose actual living expenses are much less than what they make and constantly complain about being broke. They have little to nothing in savings but eat out lunch every day, smoke cigarettes(almost $10 per pack), go to concerts, go out at night drinking etc.
My Ebay Store
It’s a factor, helps folks 401K balances. Unfortunately, a large segment of the US population does not invest or is unable to save to take advantage. Unemployment at an all time low is helping, but still the upper middle class and rich are benefiting the most.
Unemployment at an all time low? 15 million of the workers who gave up and dropped out of the labor force during the great recession still haven't come back. 20% of the "employed" only hold part time jobs and lets not even get started with how many people who once held decent middle class manufacturing jobs are now flipping big macs or stocking shelves down at the local china mart. Lets spin it, yeah employment is boomin lol
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Just stating what was stated on the news “lowest unemployment in 50 years”. Many are doing well in the Northeast, but I realize that is not the case in other parts of the country. Manufacturing is taking a big hit, now farming is as well. Automation and new technology will continue to move the work force in new directions.
I live in the northeast, this place is a shell of what it once was. Nothing but abandoned factories and a bunch of opiod junkies. Automation has nothing to do with it. Billionaire politicians exploiting and offshoring cheap labor. Glad we won the trade war. It was the biggest win in the history of winning. lol
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Interesting article on automation
https://www.forbes.com/sites/amysterling/2019/06/15/automated-future/#29ee97dd779d
You need to be more selective in which "news" you believe in. You gotta remember that most "news" just reads us the gov. press releases. It's so much easier than investigative reporting.
Besides, they don't even calculate employment the way they did 10 years ago, let alone 50 years ago. If ya gonna compare apples you gotta have apples.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Now you're learnin' derryb. Get out there and travel and investigate this wonderful country of ours, just as ive advocated for years and years. Lots and lots of great stuff going on. Could do better in some areas and a little hot in others but certainly not the gloom and doom coming from the basements of many "news" sources you cite. 7 million unfilled jobs out there. 7 MILLION!!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Most unemployed skilled laborers choose not to take those food industry jobs.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Have to somewhat agree here. At least in my part of the country, GM plant closes hundreds of $75K job gone, mills laying off due to the tariffs they claim, more $60K gone all replaced with these 7 million $8 jobs flipping burgers at macdonalds or stocking shelves at the newly opened Chinamart. Makin merica great they claim.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Free yourself from ignorance..
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.a.htm
1.3 million openings in professional and business areas.
1.2 million openings in healthcare.
500k openings in manufacturing.
400k openings in finance.
300k openings in construction.
Compare to 1 million burger flipping jobs.
And for those that have no skills, govenments have 600k openings
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I know more than a few persons like that. The dems never suggest how much individuals could change their financial destiny by making wiser choices.
I have been reading on these boards for years and years how bad things are out there and a crash around the corner just like the 2008/2009 timeframe ...been hearing that for many years .
Meanwhile the same doomsayers many have missed perhaps the greatest bull market of all time.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
This and the next post goes to show just how different things are regionally, and perhaps generationally.
In my area, there are far more "good" jobs than qualified applicants. Michigan and Florida should send all of their bioreactor engineers and purification scientists to either of the coasts 😉
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Valid point so long as a guy or gal doesn't mind living the dream of a left or right coast city chicken.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
You might be very surprised to learn about the opportunities to live practically any way you like, within a half hour from the coop.
Turn off your TV and internet feed and take a walk around.. if you don't appreciate what you see.. then you'd be a fool not to move somewhere else
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Not any more.
is the PM spot price an indicator of a weak economy?
remains an indicator of supply and demand of promises. Appears no one wants the promise of future delivery at the moment. Yet, they're beating down the door for immediate delivery.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Is the stock market an accurate indicator of a strong economy?
If the stock market is an accurate indicator of a strong economy, then Zimbabwe's economy has been on fire for many years now.
I knew it would happen.