For perkdog,
dallasactuary
Posts: 4,119 ✭✭✭✭✭
It's for all of you, but I know perkdog loves it when I drag out a stat nobody has ever heard of before, so this is dedicated to you, perk.
On the Advanced Batting section of the Advanced Stats page on bb.ref there is a stat called RC, for Runs Created. It's a fine stat all by itself, but it lacks context (park or era), so it has limited use. But, if you combine it with some other basic stats, the result is a better stat, and one that provides a new, and usually better, way to look at offensive contribution.
To show how the stat is calculated, I'll use Ryan Howard as an example. In 2008, Howard's triple crown stats were 48 / 146 / .253. He led the league in HR and RBI and there was quite a bit of support for him to win the MVP that year (he came in 2nd in the actual vote). His Runs Created (RC) was 113, in a ballpark that inflated offense by 2% (factor of 1.02) in a league where the average team scored 4.54 runs per game. So by creating 113 runs in a context of 4.54 * 1.02 = 4.63 runs per game. Howard created runs equivalent to 113/4.63 = 24.4 games. That's not great, but it is a good season; almost exactly as good as Mike Epstein's 1969 season - 96 RC / (4.09 lg R/G * 0.97 (park factor)) = 24.2 games worth of offense.
Some other season match-ups (without the math):
1954 Gil Hodges (42/130/.304): 27.3 (his best season)
1965 Johnny Callison (32/101/.262): 27.4
2004 Ichiro Suzuki (8/60/.374): 29.4
1970 Roy White (22/94/.296): 29.6
2017 Aaron Judge (52/114/.284): 30.4
1969 Jimmy Wynn (33/87/.269): 30.5
1920 George Sisler (19/122/.407): 34.0
1964 Dick Allen (29/91/.318): 34.0
2008 Albert Pujols (37/116/.357): 35.6 (a great MVP season)
1972 Bobby Murcer (33/96/.292): 35.7
1941 Ted Williams (37/120/.406): 37.5
1969 Reggie Jackson (47/118/.275): 38.3
The highest stat I've found is 43.5, Babe Ruth, 1921.
I haven't looked at enough seasons to say this with any statistical certainty, but it looks like:
15-20: good
21-25: very good
26-30: great
31-35: MVP-Level
36+: Most HOFers never got this high. (Trout has done it once, and has topped 34 four other times, and is on pace for 34.7 this year)
This stat is a very simplified version of offensive Win Shares, and is about as good as you can get without the monster database that Bill James has. It is cumulative, so it avoids the "rate stat" problem, it is park and era adjusted, it includes all offensive events (OBP, SLG, DP, SB, etc.), and it includes men-on hitting. And note that the foundational stat, Runs Created, is not to be confused with the almost useless Runs + RBI - HR stat.
Comments
Yes!! I do love these unknown stat methods!! A little hungover this AM and haven’t finished my coffee yet but it was s good read, I might need to read it several more times though to understand a little of it 😅. Thank You Dallas 🍻👏
If only Dallas worked this hard at his job.