2019 National Report - Sneak Peak, Day 1 and Day 2 recaps - UPDATED 8/2 PM
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WHAT?!?!? You guys thought I forgot about you didn't you? You should know better.
I can't remember how many years this is, but I'm keeping the streak alive even if it's a little slow out of the gate this year.
As a quick background, I honestly collect just about everything. Pre-war, 50s-60s graded, modern graded, autographs and memorabilia, presidential items, pennants, bobbleheads, unopened packs and boxes, baseball, basketball, football, a little hockey, boxing, Olympics, I hit a lot of categories. It's pretty tough to have a booth that doesn't have something I'd be interested in.
This is my 5th consecutive National, and 8th overall. I have to admit, location wise I still prefer Chicago as there are restaurants/bars and things pretty close to the convention center. It's all within a block or two.
From a layout standpoint, though, I don't like Chicago very much. The room is very big, and they put all the corporate booths in the middle. This makes it nearly impossible to set a plan by row or column to walk the show in a manner to ensure you hit all the tables. As a result, I think I walked 3-4 rows today, as there were a couple dealers I've bought from the past 4 years that I wanted to see today and had to take them out of order. It's only 4 hours on Preview Day, which seems like it should be a lot but it really isn't.
At first impression, there were some nice cards to see today, and I only covered maybe 20% of the room. For those who have followed my past reports, though, I ALWAYS seem to struggle on Day 1 and this year was no different. It seems to me the front part of the room every year must be the "old timers", the folks who have been setting up for years and so they get priority in order of picking table space (?). There are also TONS of auction houses, more on that later.
Every year, that front section sets the initial tone of the day, and I have to say going forward I may just skip this group and come to them last. I won't bore you with tons and tons of this stuff, but I'll pick a couple to make a point. DEALERS TAKE NOTE - if you continue to price your cards like this, you should understand that THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS of potential dollars are just walking away from you. I asked one dealer about a 34 Goudey #37 Gehrig SGC 50 - he quotes me $3400. This card has a VCP of $2300 from a May sale on eBay, last three sales are reportedly $2500 or less. It may have been nice for the grade, but it's a still a 50 (4), so it's not THAT nice. It's SO FAR AWAY from a reasonable start, I didn't even bother to counter - honestly I didn't say anything other than "thank you" and handed the card back and walked on. T206 Dark Cap Mathewson PSA 4 - VCP around $900, price quote $1750! Another table the price quote was $1650. Mid grade Dark Caps are not especially rare, and everything I'm talking about was a normal/common back. Last one, asked about probably 5-6 1968 Nolan Ryan PSA 7s - maybe once with exceptional centering - VCP $1184, cheapest initial quote $1500 and highest was $1900!!!! I guess my 8 is worth a fair bit more than I thought it was if these are worth 30-50% more than VCP for a pretty commonly sold card.
As someone who sets up as a dealer at shows in Houston and does a lot of selling on eBay, I understand the higher ask expecting a negotiation. But as I've said before and will say again - there's a limit. If you price it TOO HIGH, most people don't have anywhere to go from there. I heard from a couple folks today they didn't know what to ask for their card but knew I had looked them up on VCP and eBay. When I reported a half down sales prices, they told me those were all too cheap. Well then why didn't you buy them?!?!? Markets are what markets are, and there are still a LARGE NUMBER OF DEALERS who are not interested in selling cards. I don't know exactly why they're here, but they definitely aren't here to sell cards and I would be shocked if they actually profit enough to actually pay for the space.
A lot of dealers are starting their prices at least 20-25% over recent sales, expecting a negotiation. Some are pricing in cash and credit card prices, which I think is a decent idea. However, I'm also surprised HOW MANY DEALERS are still not accepting Paypal or Venmo or similar payments. I honestly just don't believe there are that many people walking around the show with $10-20k in cash in their pockets, so how the heck are they supposed to pay for these $9k card if you won't accept some form of electronic transfer/payment? I don't think I was quite as in tune to this in previous years, but it was really surprising to me today that so many dealers are not accepting of that form of payment at this point. I'm not talking credit cards, either. I'm talking friends/family type payments. It just makes sense, but it's still not "base case" for a big portion of the room.
I was ultimately able to buy one card today, though. I'm on the last 10 cards of a fully graded 1954 Topps baseball set and have been in the market for a nice Banks for what seems like a while. Dealer first quoted me $900 cash/$1000 credit on a PSA 5. We ultimately settled at $850, I think we were both pleased where it landed. That was the last "big" I needed for my set, so for me it was a good start to the week.
I visited a couple other dealers I know toward the end, and will hopefully have something to report on those interactions tomorrow. I do think I'm going to be able to get a trade or two done, but it was the groundwork of meeting and working with these guys for the last 3-4 years that's making it possible now.
I can't say that any specific thing was "hot", but again it was only 4 hours and I didn't see much of the room. I think tomorrow I'll be able to get a better sense of that.
Comments
Here is the entrance to the show, floor layout pretty much the same as other years.
This was pretty cool - Wilt Chamberlain ROOKIE jersey! Just WOW!
Some big dogs, this is some pretty serious cardboard.
A few more. That Matty is one of my favorites.
Some tough stuff here, really cool items.
Cool or creepy? I'll let you decide. These are some Michael Jordan items from middle school, one is a love letter to a girl? ...I'm probably voting creepy. "Unique" is probably how I would describe these.
This is a pretty cool set of autographs.
And yes, PWCC is here. Not really interested in talking about that in this thread other than to acknowledge attendance. I did think this Cobb rainbow was pretty cool, no two ways about that.
And last but not least, my one acquisition from Wednesday.
This guy is going in my set, I'm down to less than 10 for a fully graded 1954 set. Super happy with this one, and got it well under VCP. Best thing about it, it's centered slightly DOWN which is somewhat uncommon on this. Most are centered up with just a sliver of white between the border and his name.
I'm more of a net54er now because of what I collect, I know you guys are unopened geeks so I'll try a take a few pics today.
I think KC already covered the BBCE booth for you, but in case you didn't see it there, here's the "MONSTER".
OK - more to come later tonight.
Thanx!
Great read, thx for posting.
1954 Football Bowman
1956 Topps
1957 Topps
Redskins HOF Rookies
Redskins Ring of Fame Rookies
Slinging Sammy Baugh
Redskins Tickets (Stubs)
Redskins Matchbooks
Wow! Thanks for the pics! Absolutely unbelievable! That Babe Ruth m101 PSA 7 jumped right out and poked me in the eye!
As a Cubs fan impossible to top this as the coolest thing at the National. Zoom in and read the sign.
Group rip!
Seriously, nice pickup on the '54 Banks! I recently completed that set in low-mid grade and that card always seemed to have tough top-bottom centering. Your card avoids that issue.
Going to update two days tonight, so here goes with Day 1 (Thursday).
I was focused on getting through the rest of the show, since I only saw about 20% or so on Wednesday. Instead of picking up where I left off, I went to the far end of the show out of gates instead. As I've mentioned, the Chicago floor layout is not my favorite, as the sponsor booths are in the middle and it cuts the floor up. I'd much prefer if they had all these at one end. I'm sure the guys near the Topps booth would like that, as well, since multiple times a day Topps is screaming at the top of their lungs for the various give aways. I know it's fun for the people around the booth looking to win, but it's really tough on the dealers near them as a lot of people just walk away mid sentence because of the volume.
I wanted to drop by a couple of the auction house booths today to view some of the auction preview items, and it did not disappoint. These were at the Mile High booth, it's always cool I think to see these types of things in person. If you've got a few hundred grand to drop, I guess it's really a choice of these cards, or a house...or two houses...
Ran across this guy as well, I know they are rare, I like pitchers, a lot of people don't like the black and white cards but I thought this was pretty impressive and would definitely make a top 20 list for me.
I haven't yet taken the plunge on something like this, but I really think these packs look great and really would make a super display with some of the cards. They weren't that expensive, so I'm sure I will own some soon (just not today).
This is the other auction house preview I wanted to see. There are so many awesome cards, it's hard to really appreciate them all. It's somewhat overwhelming when they're all together. It's a really great display if you're looking for ideas for your man cave at home.
Switching gears a little, I realize certain cards are definitely iconic cards. Even in the modern era, the 93 SP Jeter, 2011 Topps Update Trout, 89 Upper Deck Griffey. I get the appeal of owning the card, but not sure I get the prices - and yes, I've owned multiples of all three of these in the past, but don't own them anymore. Part of the reason? Check out the pop reports on these cards and then try and tell me how rare they are. Then look at cases like this - it's one where supply and demand don't seem to really work in my view, but I guess that's part of what makes this hobby fun.
This isn't the only case like this that I saw, just the one I took a picture of. There were several others that looked similar, full of 2011 Update Trouts.
In the "sad but true" department, I guess he's really selling all this stuff off? Maybe it shouldn't be a surprise, I don't imagine Rickey is really about "things", but still this is a pretty awesome item. For some reason I don't really like guys not having their trophies, but I guess at some level they "lived it", so maybe they don't need the "stuff" as reminders.
BBCE also had this set, no idea if the price is right but as a fully graded set collector, it's always impressive to see these in person. And with the centering issues 1957s have, this is a pretty impressive accomplishment. This one will get you tied for 22nd on the set registry. Only 22nd? I'm a little surprised.
As for my pickups on Day 1, it was kind of slow going again.
My Astros shirt got a dealer to pull this out. I have tons of Clemens autos since he's a local, but for $40 I just couldn't say no. If nothing else this will go to a charity auction. But considering what he charges, and I got a ball holder out of it, might have been the best deal of the show for me.
As I said before, I collect a little of everything. This one was priced well, got a little more off the asking price and was an easy deal.
Other than this, my day was going slow and I was starting to feel discouraged. I experienced similar issues on Thursday as I had on Wednesday with mid-grade T206s primarily - every dealer seemed to be wanting to set the new highest price for the grade for every Hall of Famer, regardless of pose or back combo. I definitely appreciate these cards have been on the move, some seem white hot even. But not every one is "high end" for the grade, and at some level just about all of them have nice eye appeal in some way.
To address an earlier comment in the thread, I understand sellers can ask whatever they want and I agree some of the dealers are using these as "show off" cards to get people to look. I do that with some of my cards myself. But I can also say that when I asked about these other cards, the prices generally reflected a similar idea - way overpriced and probably looking for a counter. In my opinion, that plan really only works if the range from the average to the asking price is narrow enough to invite a counter. 40-50% over VCP for most non-rare cards isn't close enough and I'm sure there are other like me who just move on. As a dealer myself sometimes, this is an area that is tough to deal with on hot cards. However, for just about all dealers the overwhelming number of cards that are out are NOT hot cards - which is why we end up seeing many of these same cards year after year after year. I could point out a dozen dealers who have much of the same inventory they did in Atlantic City for instance. I don't view that as a good thing as a dealer, but maybe I'm missing something.
Another comment I've heard from dealers is how much they spent to get there and setup. Well, I spent a lot of money to fly up and get a hotel, etc. In my view, the only difference in "cost" is the table cost - we all have costs to be at the show however we're there - dealer or collector - or realistically some version of both for most? That's not to say that I expect the dealers to offer me a "deal" so I can flip cards to pay for my trip. You should try and get the best price you can for yours cards no matter what. What I do expect to find, though, is fair pricing. I don't think I'm telling folks anything they don't already know, but the "internet" basically made everyone a "dealer". It equalized the playing field in some respects in terms of knowledge and access, and that genie can't go back in the bottle now. I'm sure there are still people who do it, but I don't know why anyone would take $250 for a card they can sell on eBay or otherwise for $350, just because a dealer paid a table fee. That model is now broken - forever - and I think the people who get it have adapted and can continue to do well, and those that don't are very likely going to struggle.
Anyway, with all that in mind...as I said I was getting late in the day when this happened...
Just when I was about to lose hope for the day, a very nice stack of cards just kind of fell my way, and ultimately made my show to be honest. Great conclusion to a solid Day 1.
And now for Day 2 (Friday). After the close of Thursday, I'm not really sure what could happen today to top it. There are only a few specific cards on my really really want list, and some of those aren't really expensive or rare or whatever, so I knew going in that today could just be pretty chill.
I should have taken a few more pictures, and I started out with good intentions but I just got into "looking mode" and the day just kind of passed me by.
I was a little more focused on non-card stuff today, and these really caught my eye. This dealer has been there every year I can remember, and the selection seems pretty off the charts. Again, getting a bunch together like this just emphasizes how neat they are.
As for my Day 2 pickups? ZIP. Got shut out today. I was close on 3-4 buys, mostly modern stuff but there were a couple T206s and a couple mid 50s RCs. Just couldn't quite close the gap, which I'm sure was some holdover from my spending the day before. But I've got today's cards on a list, and tomorrow is my last day at the show so I might make a final pass on each and see if I can get that final budge. If not, no big deal - I have a nice haul heading home. But hey - it can always be better, right?
All was not lost. To close out the day, I went to the Net54 dinner. I had not been in previous years, but I think I may just make this part of my annual trip. It seemed pretty well attended, and I was surprised by how few "dealers" there were - most were collectors which I wasn't necessarily expecting - don't ask me why, but I just figured more dealers would be there. Sat with some folks I didn't know, and had some nice talk about cards. My table mates actually collected some rare stuff which I knew nothing about, so it was fun hearing from them about those cards and why they collected them and where they find them, etc. Totally different part of the hobby than I'm in, but the chase and their friendships and stories came through - it was really nice to hear that stuff, great reminder that this should be fun!
Also, Josh Evans from Lelands was one of the speakers. I appreciate that he got up in the front of the room and took questions, thought he did a nice job. It seems clear to me that everyone, collectors and companies alike, are all still trying to figure out how to balance hobby and business, ethics and responsibilities, and how to help find a way to root out the bad actors. There are no easy answers to a lot of these questions, but I remain hopeful that we can all keep a spotlight on some of these issues long enough to get an appropriate response and ultimately change in behavior from some of the "hobby leaders" (whether self-appointed or earned over time). I really think "transparency" is going to be the buzz word for the foreseeable future, as it should be and should have been for a long time. I think as "collectors" that is the demand we should be putting on the "businesses" and each other. How that ultimately comes together to impact "provenance" I think will be a real key to whether anything really changes or if this is the just the next in line of continuing hobby scandals. The FBI is definitely involved, we'll see if there's enough economic impact to keep them involved.
Anyway, Day 2 is now in the books. Appreciate this is a pretty short post compared to the previous days, but realistically not a lot happened for me today. I did a lot of walking and a lot of talking, but just couldn't get anything across the line. It happens like that sometimes, but good news is there's still tomorrow!
I'll be back late tomorrow or Sunday for Day 3 summary and final wrap. Hope you enjoy.
Much thanks for your reports.
Quite the pickups on Thursday! Congrats!
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Greg Maddux #1 Master SetGreg Maddux #2 Basic Set
Thanks for the update.