1993 Upper Deck SP Boxes
lahmejoon
Posts: 1,668 ✭✭✭
Hi All,
I apologize - this is going to sound like an "investment" post, but I'm curious as to the varying (assumed) opinions on unopened boxes of this.
Boxes are currently going between $2K and $2,500. The Jeter in an 8 is around $600, in a 9 is around $5K, and a 10 went for about $100K, was it? Conventional wisdom would say, if you really wanted a Jeter, pick up a really nice 8, or pony up for a blazer of a 9 if you were a mega Jeter collector and move on - don't fool around with the box, with all the concerns over the cards sticking and potential damage if there is foil loss because of being stuck to the card above it.
Jeter is already wildly popular. I have to believe that we may be seeing more interest in his stuff with his imminent election to the HOF. With the increased attention and potential issues with cards coming out of boxes, I have to think now is the time to sell boxes, if you were sitting on them.
However, unopened continues to go up, as people break more of it. So, my question all of you is, being we're talking about modern and the potential condition issues of the key card coming out of the box, would you be a buyer today? Full disclosure, I don't own a box, but might be interested in one. I'm of the church of CPA Mike and would never open the box if I were to get one.
Thanks, in advance, for your opinions!
Comments
This box is tough in that the only big hit is the Jeter. Maybe you get lucky with a Chipper Jones but odds are it will not be a 10 (and even a Chipper PSA 10 won't be enough to pay for half the box).
Maybe the question is what would you rather have if you were going to spend $5K on the 1993 SP Product
1) PSA 9 Jeter (if you can find one at that price)
2) two sealed boxes at $2,500 each
3) 3 x PSA 8.5's at around $1,700 each
4) Other option...
I guess the answer varies depending on your viewpoint - as a Collector vs. Dealer
I do know one thing -- I would love to be able to rip open a box and pull out a 10 -- that would be amazing...
For this specific situation I would spend the 5k on option 1 or 3.
The box may appreciate, in fact prob will, but IMHO the graded cards guarantee is the better long term play.
I'd have to think prices are Inflated via PWCC shilling, as well as HOF Induction. No reason for this cars to double (triple?) Over the past 6 months. Expect a dump July 2020, just my opinion. People didn't know about this card years ago? It's been his best RC since 93 when it came out!
Definitely would not invest at this time. It's kinda like buying a house the moment before the bubble in the housing market bursts. You see a big spike in interest/value just about every time someone enters the HoF. Once it is over the entire crowd that was interested moves on to the next HoF class.
With that said, I had no idea this card has went up in value the way it has. I have 3 or 4 of those SP Jeter rookies all ungraded just sitting in top loaders somewhere. I think I need to dig them out and see if I should consider grading them.
I think modern hobby boxes in general are due for another move up. I wouldn't be surprised that if the PWCC scandal grows, more money will flow into modern unopened. 1993 SP is one of the classic modern boxes that will always be demand, you really can't apply the same economic principles on it. I thought the 1986 Fleer BKB Boxes were "overpriced" when they were $20-$30K based on the economics (3 Jordans per box at best).
I haven't tracked 1993 SP so I can't comment if $2500 is a good price, however for 1986 Fleer it didn't matter what the price history was, it moved up on its own.
As they say unopened supply goes only one direction while the supply of single cards (graded or ungraded) goes the other direction. You will have a greater pool of buyers for the singles/graded cards because more people collect cards than unopened boxes, but I think the unopened box is the safer
"investment" provided you never actually open it.
How about some PSA Graded Packs. I wish they would add FASB (From a Sealed Box) to the flip -- that could make the packs worth more. So assuming you are committed to spend about $5K on this product, you could get a PSA 8.5 and make up the rest with PSA Graded Packs (FASB or FASC Preferred)
I actually think that there is room for the 93 SP boxes to jump. Jeter is an all time iconic player--not just an all time iconic Yankee. Much like Jordan his SP rookie will continue to be coveted by a cross section of people not just baseball card collectors. I remember seeing boxes of 86 Fleer going for $15K and saying "no way they will get much higher".....and never got one. And people will rip the packs to try and get a rare PSA 10 Jeter
We had some confiscation state auction last year that had two sealed boxes. Went and checked to make sure they were legit and they were. I cut my bidding off at about $1350 and they sold at $1400. I think they were selling at $1500-$1700 at that point and I was just looking to flip and didn't think it would be worth shelling out that much. Guess I was wrong, lol. That being said, and I know you aren't going to rip them, but damn, it is tough to pull a decent foil out of one of those packs. Honestly, I don't think that will matter much to people in the future. I could see them hitting $3k in the next 6 months then maybe make an adjustment. Why not just pick up one box and one graded one?? The 7's , 8's and 9's have made a run a couple months ago and may have dipped back down a little. I expect them to soar again when the HOF'ers are announced. Happens every year.
Thanks for the feedback. I agree that unopened defies rational thought when applying it to the value of what you can pull out of a pack. My thoughts were the same on the 86 Fleer basketball boxes as well when we were breaking them at $14K-ish per box. These boxes are not as hard to come by as vintage, but as Steve said, unopened supply only goes in one direction.
My purpose for maybe getting a box is not to hunt for a Jeter. If I was on the hunt for one, the right answer would always be to use that money to get a very nicely graded one. My purpose for buying a box would be to leave it unopened, but my general curiosity is whether the futility of pulling high-grade Jeters out of a box would diminish its value. I'm thinking, based on what we've seen in vintage unopened, with the help of pack breakers, the answer is no - people have been willing to spend crazy money to roll the dice at a chance of pulling a gem. It's possible that could change, though.
People still buy lottery tickets, so the math still hasn't scared them away.
I have heard those boxes have a tendency of the cards to stick together, thus possibly damaging them when opening. People have tried putting them in freezers in order to combat this (not first hand experience) before opening.
PC Walter Payton - Bear Down!
The freezer thing has never worked for me. Still the same level of surface damage on a few different years I tried.
Kris
My 1971 Topps adventure - Davis Men in Black
I am pretty sure pulling a PSA !0 Jeter from an unopened box won't ever happen. They were likely pulled years ago and submitted before PSA became more stringent. We can all find plenty of overgraded 9s and 10s from years past, but it is unlikely they would grade a Jeter 10 now with the price soaring to the height is has. To protect the pop or not, who knows.
This is why they need a PSA 9.5 grade. There will be some cards that are just shy of a 10 - but deserve better than a 9. I mean the price difference between a PSA 9 vs. 10 is about 6 figures... so why not give us something in the middle...
I'm also thinking the 9.5 would give us a bump in price for sealed wax. If there's a chance for a 9.5 in the box, a sealed 1993 SP Wax Box could be more desirable -- causing the price to go up. This would do the same for any other sealed wax with high-dollar cards in them (examples 1980 Topps Baseball and Basketball, 1986 Fleer Basketball, etc...)