question for the statehood qtr crowd
pontiacinf
Posts: 8,915 ✭✭
I have watched from the begining, waiting to see how the first few years
would fair. Its interesting fact number one that I chose to sit out the mint
state releases, opting for the proof sets instead. Watching this for the past
4 years, Ive deffinately learned a few lessons, and am happy i didnt participate.
Those pop1 ms66's were quickly replaced by 67's. The people that bought one of
those 66's (I WAS ONE OF THEM, 200.00 FOR A MS66 GEORGIA) were quickly dumped
by the output of 67's. And the dealers loved it...hey make a 67 and get 1500-2k.
But my oh whats this, dealers milked the cash flow as much as possible till it couldnt go farther..
then, hmmmmm...whats this????? MS68's...woohoo a whole new deal...back up to 1500-2k..
but its thinning now...
whats next, huge batches of MS69's...???
KEEP YOUR POP 1 MODERNS.....
THE SUCKER HAS LEFT THE BUILDING
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
0
Comments
Bill: And did you? I have NEVER been able to grade a single MS67 GA(p) from a roll, bag or mint set TO THIS DAY!!
With all due respect, after YOU actually succeed in making one, I might take what you have to say more seriously.
That is a pretty good attack on dealers. Its not like they have all of these MS 67 & 68s in the beginning and just hold them in reserve to milk all the MS66s for top dollar and then when the prices fall start making the MS67s available to milk for top dollar and so on and so on. The pop reports are there for all to see.
Demand, availability, collector fever and a lot of time collector ignorance drove those MS66s and then subsequently the MS67s to ridiculous levels. We all knew when the pops grew the prices would fall so if someone choose to buy at those early inflated prices because they just had to have one then don't cry over spilled milk.
And no I am not a dealer I am a collector.
Bill
The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.
hey Mitch
Wheres the check for the 2k??????
I sure as hell dont remember writing one.dont see one residing in my set.....I seem to remember a pm though asking for a 2500 donation and then one would magically appear.
I backed off on that only because it sounded like you were referring that if I paid the price one would appear...and also now
that you bring it up, I dont see a hole lotta 70 "PROOFS" which is what "I" deal with comming down the pike.
But alot of your "POP1" coins end up having a few brothers a few weeks after being sold. These 70 proofs
are way few, far between, and if you open your eyes, im still waiting to see how many brothers will be put out.
Ill for one be glad when this market dries up, as its for idiots and opportunists.
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
Bill: Sure, for today. And, when those pops go up, I'm sure you'll be pointing out how those were common as well.
I actually caught you with nothing worthwhile to say...
never thought id see the day.
and you know as well as I do that statement you made is bunk.
period.
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
Bill: I was wondering why you bought a $200 MS66 GA in the firstplace. Did you think you could make money on it? That it might go up in value? Were there underbidders at the time at $195 that you were beating out to get the coin? Were you simply being benevolent to your friendly coin dealer? I was also wondering why you were so aggressively trying to buy a PR70 when they were trading at $2000+ Honestly Bill - where you at any point in time fully prepared to "pay the price" to buy a PR70 if one could have been found for you? I seem to recall numerous posts by you aggressively seeking a PR70 quarter. I was wondering a lot of things, but I just decided to avoid all these questions (in my last post) because these types of repetitve, "I'm smarter than you", condescending threads like this one are what is driving many people away from this board. But, now that you really wanted to know what I thought, feel free to answer these questions if you wish
Camelot
But, most knew what they were getting into. I was one of them. Bought a MS-68 state quarter for a price I shan't say from a prominent modern dealer. At the time of the deal, the price was fair in light of the market, and the drop in price was a risk I took.
Had I waited, I could have got one cheaper, but what the hey, you live and learn. Do I blame the dealer for my impatience? No. Do I blame PCGS for "changing" standards and the market being flooded with MS-68 state quarters? No. Did I teach myself a much needed lesson in patience with coins (any year, any type, any grade)? Yes.
1)MS66 geo purchase: about 2 years ago when it was pop 40/0 in 66...I bought as an investment at
the time, as I do not actively purchase moderns for resale (matts sms ms70fs was an exception, 1 time deal).
Within what felt like a week, probably 2 months, I was lucky to get 50 bucks for it, due to its new found brothers sisters
to be fair. First and last time ms were bought...onto next statement.
oh let me mention i didnt purchase for resale, but did when I saw where the market for ms statehood was heading.
2) Mitchell...comeon....2 pm's (go back and look) and maybe a request in 2 threads asking "wheres my pr70"???
THATS AGGRESSIVE BUYING???????comeon...I knew first time you responded and mentioned the 2k+ donation, I by passed
it as a joke....I dont want to pay that much for a modern. You as well as I know that mint quality is not that bad that a few
more proof 70's shouldnt be seen out there. But they arnt, due to what ever factor you as resellers wanna blame. I am seriously
pissed that I cannot upgrade my proof set at a reasonable price, or make a 70 due to lack of funds to buy 100's maybe 1000's till
I find that special coin let alone have the time to do so. So if you wanna say I was interested at one point, thats closer to the truth.
Plus not to mention that PCGS has become tighter than a frogs azzzz when it comes to the 70 grade. Maybe Ive become to caught up
in the hype of the Registry to the point I felt I needed that 70. But again, I didnt purchase or in any other factor agreesively try to buy or
for that matter beg for one.
3)SO HERE IT GOES ONE LAST TIME:
Mitch I dont hate you, I actually told someone today Im jealous you can do what you do (I wont point out what that is) but at same time..I hate the thought of newbies comming in and reading this bunk that the pops in moderns actually matter.....I feel they dont...
period
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
I learned after the fact and am trying to save at least one person from what I got sukked into
and yes I do blame PCGS for the standard change....its making them money
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
i must admit....your not afraid to go out there and take a chance
ANOTHER REASON TO BE JEALOUS
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
Bill,
I bought a 66 2 years ago, a 68 last year, and a 67 a few months back. If you place them side by side, there is still a difference, the 67 is better than the 66, the 68 better than the 67. I do not believe that PCGS has changed standards. I do believe that dealers and hard core collectors are taking the search for a nice quarter seriously.
Kettle, you are black.
Pot
Remember this about that ebay auction. There is an underbidder, so its not like there is no one else willing to pay anywhere near the price for that Georgia 25C.
JJacks
If you really, truly believe the original MS66 coins graded by PCGS in the first 12 months of the state quarter program are now MS67 coins under "todays PCGS standard", then that $200 coin you bought and sold for $50 may actually be trading for around $750-$1000 today - right? The last sale on a GA(p) on ebay in MS67 was just under $1000. Assuming your original MS66 was indeed the same as the MS67 coins of today, is it possible that coin or some of those "$200" coins back when you bought your coin may actually be worth upwards of 5x that amount today in an MS67 holder. Or, are you not really saying that the MS66's of yesteryear are the MS67s of today?
Of course, this $200 price for purposes of this thread was an extreme price for an MS66 GA(p) (perhaps even near a record high). There were many that sold under $50 when MS66 was low pop and finest known or near finest known. My guess is the average sales price on a GA(p) in MS66 during the first 12 months of the program was less than $100 (perhaps a good bit less - maybe $80?) Those first (40) MS66 coins might have then cost someone between $3000-$4000 if they could have bought every single coin. With GA(p) routinely selling at close to $1000 in MS67 even now, do you realize that if only 10% of those 40 coins were MS67, those (4) upgrade coins would, even today, cover the cost of those original (40) "overpriced" GA coins - assuming your comment was correct that PCGS changed its grading standard. JUST 10%. If just 1/5 coins were MS67 quality today, those 8 MS67 coins would be "sweet". So, Bill - again, engaging in a non-heated, respectful discussion - do you think 10-20% of those first 40 MS66 GA(p) coins PCGS slabbed would grade MS67 today and, if so, what does that say about those early purchases? Wondercoin
First, I bought all the 99 statehoods in PCGS 66 early in 2000. Don't remember the exact price of the GA-p, but the total cost was about $450 for all 10. The GA-p was not hard to get. The d was harder for GA and all the states. Didn't really like the collection and was able to sell them at a small profit later in the year to a dealer.
Second. I have noticed with moderns, that low pops for newer issues are deceptive, as many more can be made and will be made if the price warrants. Keith is right. Patience is a must for buying newer moderns. If you pay the high price early, you can get burned. This is why I waited a few months to get these. It not just new issues though. Several years ago MS66 Washington quarters from 1960 to 1964 had very low pops and often sold on Teletrade for several hundred dollars. I think dealers viewed them as common and didn't bother getting them graded. But at a price all of a sudden they appeared and the price on most dropped to well under $100 (turns out the 61D and 62D are still scarce and command higher prices).
However, it is not right to blame Mitch or any other dealer. When dealers see high prices they work to get more graded and sold. As more are graded the price can drop. Why shouldn't dealers do this, they are just responding to the demand they see. If anyone is to "blame" its the early collectors who are willing to pay "too much". Frankly, Pontiacinf why did you pay $200 for this piece? And you did buy a piece, you weren't sold one. After looking at some mint sets, did you really think 66s would be rare. Perhaps you didn't do you homework first. Don't blame a dealer for selling you a piece at market price if the market then goes down. We've all bought coins that decline in price and none of us like it, but we don't blame the dealer. It was our own flawed analysis. In a way this is somewhat common in other areas. How many people pay too much for a new technology as soon as it comes out, only to see the same product sell for a fraction of the price a few months later. And why are you atttacking Mitch for making a lot of money (if he is) on whatever MS68 statehood he is now auctioning on ebay. He simply put a coin up, and the market is determining the price. Maybe it's even for a customer. If you don't think it's worth the price, don't buy it! And, why does no one consider how many hundreds of coins he has probably had to sell at or below cost. When it all averaged out, you need a few big winners to say in business.
On the PR70 question. This has been well discussed on this board. For various reasons, PCGS is very tough on 70DCs right now. The piece has to be perfect, presumably under a microscope. Almost no coins can meet that perfect standard. So, no one will get a PR70 Statehood easily or cheap regardless of how hard you work. $2,000 may be a fair price. The risk is that PCGS will return to its standards of a few years ago. In many cases, less than perfect coins were graded PR70DC. Quarters graded in those years typically sell for a few hundred dollars. Of course statehoods weren't around then, so the few PR70DC Statehoods graded now probably are perfect. I'm not in the market at that level because it is very possible standards could loosen later. It's another case of less than patient collectors perhaps paying too much. To the extent I buy PR70s (and I have a few), they cost a few hundred dollars, they were graded several years ago, and they have to look perfect to me.
Further affiant saith not.
Cheers
Greg
GREG: EVEN WORSE!! I AM GETTING ATTACKED AND I AM THE HIGH BIDDER ON THE COIN.
Greg: And no one ever mentions the INCREDIBLE, FANTASTIC MODERNS THEY BUY - HAVE YOU NOTICED THAT. By way of example only, I sold roughly (19) 2001 Capitol Vistitor Center $5 Gold PCGS-MS70 Commems to board members and a few on ebay at $345/coin about 9 months ago (some of the latter coins of the 19 pcs. I may have raised the price to $450/coin, so I may be off by $1000 or so on what I took in totally on the 19 coin lot). Guess what. Those (19) coins I sold at roughly $6555 are now out there at around $1800/coin (offered retail by a major modern Commem dealer) and one of my customers just consigned one back to me (I just listed it on ebay) at $1500 opening bid!! Even using the $1500 price, those (19) coins I sold for $6555 are now showing a "market value" of $28,500!!!!!!! Geez, I would need to sell a heck of a lot of $200 and $300 state quarters to ever come close to the $22,000 I "left on the table" on those (19) CVC coins - hugh?!!
And, if those CVC MS70 coins go to $2500/coin, some collectors still won't sell. And, one day, many years from now, if they "crash" back down to $300, that is when I'll probably see the first post about those coins
Why do I mention those (19) CVC $5 gold coins now showing a retail value of perhaps $28,500 against my sales price of roughly $6,555? Simply to demonstrate that NO ONE HAS A CRYSTAL BALL with these moderns. Did I think I was leaving $22,000 on the table on (19) coins? Heck no!! Likewise, some other moderns may have dropped in price over the past 10 month period - no doubt. But, have you noticed that you NEVER see the thread around here - "I BOUGHT (5) CVC $5 GOLD MS70 COMMEMS 9 MONTHS AGO FOR $1725 AND THEY ARE NOW WORTH $7500" . I wonder why
<< <i>- "I BOUGHT (5) CVC $5 GOLD MS70 COMMEMS 9 MONTHS AGO FOR $1725 AND THEY ARE NOW WORTH $7500" . >>
This would be about as distasteful as
<< <i>question for the statehood qtr crowd >>
Don't give em any ideas.
but at least you have your requested controversial post.
Im off to my now substandard reg set
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
knowing Steve that has to be one Killer commem set.
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill