The numbers are based on the PCGS Price Guide values at the time and not auction records. MS64 $10 1926 coins were routinely selling in the $1800-$2200 range at the time (PCGS coins only), which was an uptick from 2009 when some examples sold in the $1500-$1800 range regularly. Even pre-2008, this was never a $3k coin for most examples, so a large part of the effect is also an unrealistic price guide value in that time period. The market has still depreciated, but not as bad as the graph suggests.
It's not just gradeflation. In fact, it's more the supply of them and re-submissions that have sent the pop reports into orbit.
I think it is because there are just so many coins that are easily replaced as others are released from decades of bondage. this issue, the $20 Gold coin, has always been nothing but a bullion item that was used in bags by banks and Nations to facilitate commerce and the economy. it is high time it steps down off its soap-box and realizes its true identity. certainly there are specific dates which are "Numismatic" and certain grades that reach that status, but by and large these coins have more in common with many Modern issues than collectors wish to admit, things like Kennedy Half-Dollars, Sacagawea Dollars and Presidential Dollars. I know it is tough to face, but if you swallow hard and make the admission you will see how liberating it can be.
If a $20 Saint was a gun we might call it a Safe Queen. maybe we should acknowledge that.
I like nice spot free PCGS 64 Saints with nice luster close to melt. These are common but nice coins. Many walking in the bourse room can’t afford these. I won’t pay premium for CAC bc (1) common coins and (2) can pickup nice slabbed 63 or 64 Morgan dollar for that amount (1921 Morgan $30, 1922 MS64 Peace $34 - purchase from wholesaler setup next to me). I won’t waste money on material where that money may buy something can retail few bucks more.
Many who can’t afford Saints buy coins like nice slabbed $5 Libs and France 20 FR close to melt.
For this material your investing the gold content.
If slabbed MS69 AGE less than 64 Saint I buy those instead (more gold content). These are awsome coins.
@BryceM said:
Supply & demand. If they go to the other side of melt they'll see the melting pot in a big hurry. It wouldn't be the end of the world either.
Would be unfortunate to lose the well designed coins to the crucible.
Maybe a little, but losing 50% of the extant coins up to MS62 wouldn’t even be noticeable to the market or collectors. They're not rare. In those grades the beauty of the design is overshadowed by the ugliness of the coin.
Start melting gems and there with ya.
Since so many are "CAC only" and the others will practically be treated like bullion if market trends continue, maybe an extreme spike in spot will save us with the non-CACed ones finding their way into the smelter.
@segoja said:
I don't think I'm making my point. Lets do the exact math
AGE is 91.67% Gold Balance copper and a little silver They contain 1 oz pure gold.
$20 Saints 90% Gold 10% copper and contain .9675 oz pure gold
You have to price these at the value of gold content contained, which is what is called melt value. People are confusing the spot price of gold with the melt value of the coin.
Let me illustrate Assume spot price of $1415
$50 Gold Eagle has 1 oz of pure gold. Melt Value is 1 x $1415 = $1415. Bid is 99% of melt, or $1400.85 The premium to melt is 99%
$20 Saint has .9675 oz pure gold Melt Value is .9675 x $1415 = $1369.01 Bid is 98% of melt, or $1341.65 Premium to melt is 98%
Do not get confused by the differing amounts of gold in each coin. Bottom line on a pro rata basis, $20 Saints are cheaper on a per ounce basis than Gold Eagles.
If I could buy slabbed 63 saints at 98% of melt instead of AGE at melt I'd go for the saints. Who doesn't like free gold? To me it's a no brainer.
Comments
Re: 1926 $10 MS64 prices
The numbers are based on the PCGS Price Guide values at the time and not auction records. MS64 $10 1926 coins were routinely selling in the $1800-$2200 range at the time (PCGS coins only), which was an uptick from 2009 when some examples sold in the $1500-$1800 range regularly. Even pre-2008, this was never a $3k coin for most examples, so a large part of the effect is also an unrealistic price guide value in that time period. The market has still depreciated, but not as bad as the graph suggests.
I think JA said he had to do A & B coins or the crack out dealers would smash everything that had a sticker.
His quote to paraphrase was something like...
When crack out dealers start liking CAC, we have a real problem.
My Saint Set
It's not just gradeflation. In fact, it's more the supply of them and re-submissions that have sent the pop reports into orbit.
I think it is because there are just so many coins that are easily replaced as others are released from decades of bondage. this issue, the $20 Gold coin, has always been nothing but a bullion item that was used in bags by banks and Nations to facilitate commerce and the economy. it is high time it steps down off its soap-box and realizes its true identity. certainly there are specific dates which are "Numismatic" and certain grades that reach that status, but by and large these coins have more in common with many Modern issues than collectors wish to admit, things like Kennedy Half-Dollars, Sacagawea Dollars and Presidential Dollars. I know it is tough to face, but if you swallow hard and make the admission you will see how liberating it can be.
If a $20 Saint was a gun we might call it a Safe Queen. maybe we should acknowledge that.
I like nice spot free PCGS 64 Saints with nice luster close to melt. These are common but nice coins. Many walking in the bourse room can’t afford these. I won’t pay premium for CAC bc (1) common coins and (2) can pickup nice slabbed 63 or 64 Morgan dollar for that amount (1921 Morgan $30, 1922 MS64 Peace $34 - purchase from wholesaler setup next to me). I won’t waste money on material where that money may buy something can retail few bucks more.
Many who can’t afford Saints buy coins like nice slabbed $5 Libs and France 20 FR close to melt.
For this material your investing the gold content.
If slabbed MS69 AGE less than 64 Saint I buy those instead (more gold content). These are awsome coins.
I think we should look at one of these common, derided coins.
My Saint Set
Since so many are "CAC only" and the others will practically be treated like bullion if market trends continue, maybe an extreme spike in spot will save us with the non-CACed ones finding their way into the smelter.
If I could buy slabbed 63 saints at 98% of melt instead of AGE at melt I'd go for the saints. Who doesn't like free gold? To me it's a no brainer.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
64
I like nice flashy PCGS MS65 Saints around CDN bid (about $1500).
I bought a nice $20 PCGS 65 Lib for $2380 from a wholesaler setup near me at recent show. Probably a seller at 2950 or 3000.
I'd pay melt for it. Congrats!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
But I'd pay melt too. Multiples welcome.
On fence will gold rally continue? Or sell all. ...