Merc Folks or Anyone for that Matter. Have Question.
Fairlaneman
Posts: 10,424 ✭✭✭✭✭
Something has Baffled me since Day One in My Collecting Career. Maybe SomeOne can Answer this for Me.
Lets take a 1925P Mercury Dime in MS64FB. The Selling Price of this Dime will usually be $130.00 to $160.00. I have to use the NGC Population since PCGS will not let me into thier Pop Report for some Reason. The Population for the 25P in 64FB is 41 with 45 Graded higher.
Now lets look at the 1937D Merc in MS67FB. This Coin sells for Just about the same amount of Money as the 25P. The Population of the 37D in 67FB is 115 with 11 better. Heck the Pop in 67 only is Larger Than the 25P in 64 and Higher Combined.
Now here is the Questions. Why would Anyone Pay the Same Amount of Money for the 37D as He/She would for the 25P ?? Does the Number on the Slab of the 37D Out Weigh the Rarity of the 25P ?? Which Coin In Your Opinion is the Best and Most Sound Buy ?? Please Someone give Me some Opinions on this.
Within the Mercury Series there are Many Instances of what has just been Pointed out. Does the Collecting Community have any Idea what is Rare and what is not Rare ?? Maybe the Answer is as Long as the Number is High that is All that Matters !!
Please Help with Your Opinions. Thanks Much.
Ken...........
Lets take a 1925P Mercury Dime in MS64FB. The Selling Price of this Dime will usually be $130.00 to $160.00. I have to use the NGC Population since PCGS will not let me into thier Pop Report for some Reason. The Population for the 25P in 64FB is 41 with 45 Graded higher.
Now lets look at the 1937D Merc in MS67FB. This Coin sells for Just about the same amount of Money as the 25P. The Population of the 37D in 67FB is 115 with 11 better. Heck the Pop in 67 only is Larger Than the 25P in 64 and Higher Combined.
Now here is the Questions. Why would Anyone Pay the Same Amount of Money for the 37D as He/She would for the 25P ?? Does the Number on the Slab of the 37D Out Weigh the Rarity of the 25P ?? Which Coin In Your Opinion is the Best and Most Sound Buy ?? Please Someone give Me some Opinions on this.
Within the Mercury Series there are Many Instances of what has just been Pointed out. Does the Collecting Community have any Idea what is Rare and what is not Rare ?? Maybe the Answer is as Long as the Number is High that is All that Matters !!
Please Help with Your Opinions. Thanks Much.
Ken...........
0
Comments
1925 P
MS 64FB 102
MS 65FB 66
MS 66FB 19
MS 67FB 1
1937D
MS 67FB 104
MS 68FB 5
I would rather have the 1937D MS 67FB with those pop numbers.
Bill
The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.
Big Big Difference !! I think We must also take into Account how Many of the 25P's have Been Re-Submitted for Re-Grade via Crack Out. Probably the 37D has had coins Re-submitted also but Probably not like the 25P which has a Substancial Increase in Price from 64FB to 65FB. The 25P jumps from the $130 to $160 price in 64FB to a price of $650 to $750 in 65FB.
I'm Stubborn !! I still like the 25P in 64FB.
Jim
What is keeping it from a 65 FB grade? I could not tell from the picture.
I think there are multiple forces at work here but I would have a tendency to believe it is a grade number issue. By the time someone is spending $120 on a coin, they are probably up a few steps from the common average collector. Somone who is obviously trying to put a quality set together, but might not be a "big player". They want to buy as nice a coin as they can afford or stretch to buy even if it is not within budget. To most, being able to find and purchase a 37-d in higher than 67 is beyond the relm of reason and therefore 67 is "the best" their money could buy. So they will buy it keeping the demand steady.
The 25 in 64 has some higher alternatives which may be a big stretch for most people, however not dismissed from possibility. Therefore, one may hold back on a 64 in the hopes a 65+ could be found and afforded at that time. Does this make the demand for a 37-d in 67 outweigh the demand for the 25 in 64, or is it fairly equal judging by the pricing similarities? Maybe it just increases the saleability and the willingness to buy a 37-d in 67 of which to most, it is not likely to ever own a "nicer" one.
I would agree with Coco that the odds for an increase in high grade "certified population" is greater in the 37-d than the 25. But....Are the odds of an increase in the population of 37-d in 68 greater than the increase of the 25 in 65 or better? Judging by current pop numbers, I would have to say no.
So....is it saleability or scarcity?
WWBill said he would buy the 37-d in 67 before the 25 in 64. I would probably do the same given the emptiness of my Reg. set and the likelihood to own a 25 in 65+ before a 37-d in 68. I do not think most people pay as much attention to rarity and the lack of potential for future aquisition oportunities, as to the posibility to aquire a coin in which upgrade is not forseeable. Right or wrong.
Just a thought!
TC
Save his posting as it explains why many of us collectors do what we do.
Your Post explains Exactly how I look at a Coin when a Purchase is being thought about. For Myself Rarity of the Issue plays a Much Bigger Part in the Purchase than the Assigned Number on the Slab. I suppose this is a throw back to the Early 80's for Me when the Grading Services were not around. Back then I would not consider buying a Common Date Dime in the 30's or 40's unless it was just a Knock Out Looking Coin. On the Other hand a Good Looking Earlier Date Coin would have the Money on the Table before the Dealer could Finish telling Me what He wanted for the item.
Tony:
Excellent Answer !! I can Really see the Point You have made and it makes complete sense to Me. When it comes to the High Grade Later Dates I am still wondering if the Collectors are Cherry Picking the Date to get the Best Example they can obtain or if they are just getting a Slab with a Number on it ?? If the Collector is Cherry Picking the Date paying the same amount of Money for the 37D would certainly Work for Myself also. The Question about paying attention to the Rarity of a Coin. IMO most collectors Do Not pay enough Attention to this Factor at all. To Me when a Date comes available that hard to obtain because of lack of offerings I will Jump to get the Coin if it fits the budget and the Coin is Needed. Some where Down the line if a Up-Grade comes along then Maybe it will be considered. Of Course this Pertains to the Earlier Date Coins Only.
Oreville:
You know You have said that about a Couple of Coins I own. To be completely Truthful I just Plain Do Not have a Answer. When I compare Earlier Date Grading to Later Date Grading of the Coins in the Mercury Series I am Completely Dumb Founded as to How the Grading Services Assign Grades to some of the Coins. I am guessing the Services are Assigning Grades to some Dates expecting them to be Fully Struck as a 1916P Mercury would be. The 25P is a Good example of this, thus it Did Not get the Grade. If they are Down grading it for Strike Weakness then whats up with All of these Coins in the 30's and 40's that get the 66, 67 and sometimes 68 Grade ?? None of them are Struck as the Design was intended to be. The Only other thing that enters in is Booming Lustre. I suppose if this 25P was Cracked out and Given a Bath more Lustre would be Apparent to the Naked Eye. Lets Face it, this is How Our Coins are Graded, with the Naked Eye in about 10 Seconds. Anyway just to get another Point on a Slab this Guy Will Not Break it Out and Give the Coin a Bath. If the Coin is ever Sold the Next guy can do this if He chooses.
Enough Rambling for Now. Lets have Some More Posts. So Far the Ideas have been Great.
Ken
The question was of a rhetorical nature!
But I have something very special to point out! Look at the position of Ken's registry set!
I would have a tendency to think your set was assembled without an endless supply of funds as the top all time sets were! The few coins you are missing are very costly coins confirming this point! Therefore I congratulate you on the shrewdness of your thought and ability to recognize the most probable key to collecting coins (the true underlying premise of this discussion)!
Rarity or scarcity is more important!
37-d's in 67 are more abundant and easier to find than most earlier scarce date coins in medium grade condition! By having the mindset that you do has allowed you to assemble the gorgeous collection that you have!
It is Ken's logic which is truly flawless!
"To Me when a Date comes available that hard to obtain because of lack of offerings I will Jump to get the Coin if it fits the budget and the Coin is Needed. Some where Down the line if a Up-Grade comes along then Maybe it will be considered. Of Course this Pertains to the Earlier Date Coins Only."
Again congrats on the set!
TC
P.S. To Oreville:
My annalysis explains what we do as the average collector. However, it is Ken's logic that should be embedded in our heads!
To explain why I stated I would buy the 37D.
I am a type collector. I buy one example of each major variety within each series focused on semi rare highest affordable grade examples.
So if only given the choice between the 25P MS64FB or the 37D MS67FB naturally I would buy the 37D every time. A type guy would never buy a 25P 64FB when the same money will get him a 67FB.
If I collected the Merc date/mint mark series and needed both of those coins, I would for the same money buy the 37D for the exact reason given by TCiccone. I don't like owning more than one example of the same coin and don't like playing the upgrade game because a lot of times it can cost you more in the long run so the 37D would be the best I could afford for that date & mint mark. On the other hand I can afford a 25P in a higher grade than 64FB so I would not even consider buying it. I would wait until the right coin in the right grade became available.
The 25P MS64Fb is a great coin but is one that I would never personally consider buying even if I collected the series.
I currently own a 1929P MS66FB pop 118/18 that I bought before I was really focused on what I was collecting. I love that coin and have no intentions of upgrading. But if the competition fever ever forces me to upgrade I would be looking for a MS67FB with a pop of 50 or less any date.
Bill
The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.
After Going to the Type Set Registry and Seeing how a Mercury dime is Weighted I can certainly see why a Type Collector would Go With the Lowest Priced, Highest Graded Merc for thier Set. Seperate Weights are not Available for different Dates is how I see it for Type Collectors.
Within the Weighted Mercury Series the 25P carries a Weight of 5 and the 37D carries a Weight of 3. So this Makes the 25P in 64FB a Desirable Coin. Also I agree with your Statement that if the Coin is not Right for what You are trying to Attain certainly there is No Reason to Purchase the Coin.
You Must Remember One thing about Myself though. Basically I just Cannot Pass Up Certain Dates in the Mercury Series. The 25P is One of those Dates. In the Last 3 Years I have Owned 9 Different Coins of this Date. Some One Needs to Slap me Back into Reality. If the Money would have been Spent in a More wise fashion the 65FB Coin would be in the Set Now. But more than likely 25P purchases would still continue.
Restraint..... Hmmm......None Present.
More Thoughts Please.
Ken
Have fun
Bill
The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.
An example: If I were a Lincoln collector going to a show and could buy just one coin, and saw a 1909-S VDB in MS65RD, and a 1915-D in the same grade, I'd jump on the '15-D. Sure, the '09-S VDB is considered the 'king", and it'd be nice to show it off as such, but with a pop of about 700 in MS65RD or better, you can find them at any show. The '15-D has a pop of about 125 in 65RD or better. Any Lincoln specialist knows that there are numerous dates that are more desireable than the '09-S VDB, but priced far less. You can find similar situations in other series.
Jim