@savitale said:
Since I am probably not yet in my "peak buying years" I would also welcome a significant decrease in coin prices in the next 10 years. Although I stretch sometimes to buy nice coins, if the value of my collection were to fall to zero I could still pay my mortgage and take care of my family, so there's no catastrophic impact of falling prices but the range of what I can collect would expand.
It's not clear to me that there will be a dramatic decrease in condition census coin prices going forward though. I haven't done all the math, but I think 100 years ago these condition census coins were selling for a couple days average wages. Now that segment of the market is selling for one year's average wages. I don't see anything on the horizon that would cause that long term trend to reverse.
It's really a short term trend. It has not been steadily increasing. And, frankly, there was no such thing as a condition census 100 years ago. In fact, there were only 3 grades used. The 70 point scale came later and it wasn't until the TPGS era that there was a big difference between a64, 65, 66 grade.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Since stamps are mentioned should we lump in the 95% of almost worthless comics and baseball cards?
Collecting used to be a hobby. A form of entertainment that just so happened to become competitive in some cases. When competition dies in certain or majority of segments of that hobby prices absolutely collapse for most material.
The question is will it get hot again? For many collectible hobbies the answer is probably not in my lifetime. And that is my answer for the majority of lower tier coins out there. Tastes have changed. So hop on the new hotness like stabbed and graded video games or what not.
@fc said:
Since stamps are mentioned should we lump in the 95% of almost worthless comics and baseball cards?
Collecting used to be a hobby. A form of entertainment that just so happened to become competitive in some cases. When competition dies in certain or majority of segments of that hobby prices absolutely collapse for most material.
The question is will it get hot again? For many collectible hobbies the answer is probably not in my lifetime. And that is my answer for the majority of lower tier coins out there. Tastes have changed. So hop on the new hotness like stabbed and graded video games or what not.
When I started with comics and baseball cards, there was no thought of making money, just having fun. I wanted to have a full set of comics to read the story. I never felt I could get a full set of baseball cards until you could buy the entire set at once and that kind of defeated the purpose for me.
When I started with coins, it was all about money because coins are money and silver is more expensive than paper and cardboard.
These days, I still more excited to read comics than collect them in coffins and hope their price goes up.
I find the top 1000 coin model interesting. In the Saints that is basically a common date as there will never be 1000 date set collectors.....though easily 1000 bullion coin collectors who wouldn't mind having an inexpensive Saint at 1X to 2X bullion.
Saints are a special world when you have dates like HR,08s,20s,21,24d, 24s,25d,25s,26d,26s,27d,27s,29,30s,31,32d,32 that all cost a pretty penny. Complete sets (less 1933) are impossible except for 15-18 or so people - where a $Million is required. The 1920 is close to non-existant in gem (PCGS has only 2 MS65's). But there are 99 in MS64+ for most of the set builders to fight over. And then you have 1053 PCGS 64's waiting in the wings. So except for 64+ and higher, this is fairly buyable in top 1000 condition. Of course if you want your 1920s MS64 stickered, there's only 87 to go around - between both services.
In the seated quarter world where I started out in 1974, a "top 1000" seated quarter at $10. Today a top 1000 might be $25-$75....and affordable to the middle class. The beauty of the series is that the majority of coins in the series have extant pops under 1000. So your basic AG-Good 1859-0 or 1860-0 seated quarter is top 1000. And a top 100 coin for those dates would probably be a VF-XF coin costing $75-$200. If one considers seated quarter proofs where most have <1000 minted, every one of those is a top 1000....figure $400 for a PR-61.
Comments
If you have it all go for the condition consensus / top pop coins.
It's really a short term trend. It has not been steadily increasing. And, frankly, there was no such thing as a condition census 100 years ago. In fact, there were only 3 grades used. The 70 point scale came later and it wasn't until the TPGS era that there was a big difference between a64, 65, 66 grade.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Since stamps are mentioned should we lump in the 95% of almost worthless comics and baseball cards?
Collecting used to be a hobby. A form of entertainment that just so happened to become competitive in some cases. When competition dies in certain or majority of segments of that hobby prices absolutely collapse for most material.
The question is will it get hot again? For many collectible hobbies the answer is probably not in my lifetime. And that is my answer for the majority of lower tier coins out there. Tastes have changed. So hop on the new hotness like stabbed and graded video games or what not.
When I started with comics and baseball cards, there was no thought of making money, just having fun. I wanted to have a full set of comics to read the story. I never felt I could get a full set of baseball cards until you could buy the entire set at once and that kind of defeated the purpose for me.
When I started with coins, it was all about money because coins are money and silver is more expensive than paper and cardboard.
These days, I still more excited to read comics than collect them in coffins and hope their price goes up.
I find the top 1000 coin model interesting. In the Saints that is basically a common date as there will never be 1000 date set collectors.....though easily 1000 bullion coin collectors who wouldn't mind having an inexpensive Saint at 1X to 2X bullion.
Saints are a special world when you have dates like HR,08s,20s,21,24d, 24s,25d,25s,26d,26s,27d,27s,29,30s,31,32d,32 that all cost a pretty penny. Complete sets (less 1933) are impossible except for 15-18 or so people - where a $Million is required. The 1920 is close to non-existant in gem (PCGS has only 2 MS65's). But there are 99 in MS64+ for most of the set builders to fight over. And then you have 1053 PCGS 64's waiting in the wings. So except for 64+ and higher, this is fairly buyable in top 1000 condition. Of course if you want your 1920s MS64 stickered, there's only 87 to go around - between both services.
In the seated quarter world where I started out in 1974, a "top 1000" seated quarter at $10. Today a top 1000 might be $25-$75....and affordable to the middle class. The beauty of the series is that the majority of coins in the series have extant pops under 1000. So your basic AG-Good 1859-0 or 1860-0 seated quarter is top 1000. And a top 100 coin for those dates would probably be a VF-XF coin costing $75-$200. If one considers seated quarter proofs where most have <1000 minted, every one of those is a top 1000....figure $400 for a PR-61.