Two accounts are shilling all '89 Donruss Griffey PSA 10s up

ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

The 1989 Donruss Ken Griffey Jr Rated Rookie PSA 10 has seen great rises in price over the last year. For good reason, too. It's easily Griffey's most condition-sensitive rookie card and lowest population in PSA 10. Prices slowly climbed to the $220-$230 level and plateaued.

But in the last 5 weeks we've seen the card go from that $230 range to more than $350 (a $419 B/O that hasn't registered on VCP yet), with most sales north of $300. After seeing more than a few $339 sales, I got curious and started looking at the bids. As you would imagine, there was what would appear to be a shilling profile, or at the very least a bad case of string bidding. Thing was, it was always the same two accounts:

k * * * h (179)
a * * * b (436)

I'm not sure if this is two people working in conjunction or one person with two accounts but every single auction in the past 5 weeks for a PSA 10 '89 Donruss Griffey had at least one or both of these bidders string bid the card up to and over $300. For the most part, they were the only bidders higher than the $230 range with the exception of the person that ended up winning the auction.

Bidders: 7
Bids: 17
Time Ended: 7 Apr 2019 at 8:31:27PM PDT
Duration: 5 days

Bidder Bid Amount Bid Time

y***s(118) $333.00 5 Apr 2019 at 6:41:48PM PDT

a***b( $328.00 6 Apr 2019 at 5:47:37PM PDT

a***b( $318.00 6 Apr 2019 at 5:44:48PM PDT

a***b( $308.00 3 Apr 2019 at 8:04:12PM PDT

k***h( $302.47 3 Apr 2019 at 7:45:42PM PDT

a***b( $300.00 3 Apr 2019 at 2:53:49PM PDT

k***h( $290.00 3 Apr 2019 at 3:33:03PM PDT

o***w( $275.00 2 Apr 2019 at 9:38:18PM PDT

a***b( $270.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:50PM PDT

a***b( $245.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:41PM PDT

a***b( $230.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:36PM PDT

a***b( $215.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:30PM PDT

a***b( $200.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:22PM PDT

e***8( $75.00 3 Apr 2019 at 3:14:50AM PDT

8***6( $20.00 2 Apr 2019 at 9:11:24PM PDT

s***i( $2.00 2 Apr 2019 at 9:30:18PM PDT

8***6( $0.99 2 Apr 2019 at 9:03:01PM PDT

Starting Price $0.99 2 Apr 2019 at 8:31:27PM PDT

Bidders: 8
Bids: 27
Time Ended: 6 Apr 2019 at 7:15:37PM PDT
Duration: 7 days

Bidder Bid Amount Bid Time

a***b(436) $323.00 6 Apr 2019 at 5:51:00PM PDT

e***8( $321.00 6 Apr 2019 at 4:47:12PM PDT

k***h( $312.48 6 Apr 2019 at 9:39:16AM PDT

a***b( $308.00 3 Apr 2019 at 8:03:55PM PDT

k***h( $302.47 3 Apr 2019 at 7:45:17PM PDT

a***b( $300.00 3 Apr 2019 at 2:54:15PM PDT

k***h( $285.00 3 Apr 2019 at 7:19:30AM PDT

a***b( $280.00 2 Apr 2019 at 10:23:54AM PDT

k***h( $255.00 1 Apr 2019 at 9:42:25PM PDT

c***e( $250.00 2 Apr 2019 at 5:55:48AM PDT

r***r( $245.00 1 Apr 2019 at 8:24:22AM PDT

a***b( $240.00 31 Mar 2019 at 6:51:08AM PDT

r***r( $217.00 1 Apr 2019 at 8:07:59AM PDT

e***8( $200.00 31 Mar 2019 at 3:54:21PM PDT

a***b( $164.00 30 Mar 2019 at 9:56:07PM PDT

y***y( $159.00 31 Mar 2019 at 12:50:59PM PDT

r***r( $154.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:17:39PM PDT

a***b( $149.00 30 Mar 2019 at 9:55:58PM PDT

s***i( $22.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:42:13PM PDT

e***e( $21.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:19PM PDT

e***e( $19.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:16PM PDT

e***e( $16.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:13PM PDT

e***e( $13.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:10PM PDT

e***e( $11.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:08PM PDT

e***e( $8.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:05PM PDT

e***e( $5.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:02PM PDT

e***e( $3.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:20:58PM PDT

Starting Price $0.99 30 Mar 2019 at 7:15:37PM PDT


Discussion truncated due to size. Please wait for subsequent posts.

Comments

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Bidders: 11
    Bids: 31
    Time Ended: 18 Mar 2019 at 6:15:01PM PDT
    Duration: 10 days

    Bidder Bid Amount Bid Time

    i***t(19725) $350.00 18 Mar 2019 at 5:40:16PM PDT

    i***t( $350.00 17 Mar 2019 at 6:25:17PM PDT

    k***h( $346.00 17 Mar 2019 at 11:27:41PM PDT

    k***h( $316.00 17 Mar 2019 at 9:29:18PM PDT

    k***h( $306.00 17 Mar 2019 at 9:25:30PM PDT

    k***h( $296.00 17 Mar 2019 at 9:25:19PM PDT

    k***h( $266.00 17 Mar 2019 at 6:37:17PM PDT

    k***h( $251.00 16 Mar 2019 at 8:01:53AM PDT

    i***t( $250.00 13 Mar 2019 at 2:34:31PM PDT

    k***h( $236.00 16 Mar 2019 at 8:01:48AM PDT

    k***h( $221.00 16 Mar 2019 at 8:01:40AM PDT

    k***h( $216.00 15 Mar 2019 at 9:55:06PM PDT

    k***h( $208.00 15 Mar 2019 at 8:14:00PM PDT

    k***h( $193.00 15 Mar 2019 at 8:13:55PM PDT

    k***h( $185.00 15 Mar 2019 at 8:10:42PM PDT

    k***h( $177.00 15 Mar 2019 at 8:10:35PM PDT

    k***h( $169.00 15 Mar 2019 at 8:10:30PM PDT

    k***h( $161.00 15 Mar 2019 at 8:10:21PM PDT

    k***h( $146.00 15 Mar 2019 at 8:10:17PM PDT

    k***h( $131.00 15 Mar 2019 at 8:10:12PM PDT

    k***h( $123.45 15 Mar 2019 at 2:42:42PM PST

    u***c( $100.00 12 Mar 2019 at 5:21:26PM PDT

    r***r( $82.00 10 Mar 2019 at 11:22:13AM PDT

    u***c( $75.00 9 Mar 2019 at 7:50:26PM PST

    9***9( $15.00 9 Mar 2019 at 11:57:51AM PST

    t***t( $14.00 9 Mar 2019 at 8:33:19AM PST

    r***1( $13.61 8 Mar 2019 at 9:32:55PM PST

    s***i( $13.00 9 Mar 2019 at 7:12:56AM PST

    l***s( $12.00 8 Mar 2019 at 9:57:40PM PST

    d***1( $10.00 8 Mar 2019 at 5:34:18PM PST

    y***i( $4.00 8 Mar 2019 at 6:43:44PM PST

    Starting Price $0.99 8 Mar 2019 at 5:15:01PM PST

    Bidders: 10
    Bids: 25
    Time Ended: 13 Mar 2019 at 2:24:30AM PDT
    Duration: 10 days

    Bidder Bid Amount Bid Time

    e***l(1028) $335.00 12 Mar 2019 at 9:30:14PM PDT

    o***n( $330.00 10 Mar 2019 at 7:15:30PM PDT

    k***h( $312.00 12 Mar 2019 at 5:38:20PM PDT

    t***a( $302.00 12 Mar 2019 at 2:40:17PM PDT

    k***h( $292.00 12 Mar 2019 at 8:16:22AM PDT

    k***h( $277.00 10 Mar 2019 at 8:22:06PM PDT

    k***h( $262.00 10 Mar 2019 at 7:55:16PM PDT

    k***h( $252.00 10 Mar 2019 at 7:50:28PM PDT

    k***h( $247.00 10 Mar 2019 at 7:50:20PM PDT

    k***h( $242.00 10 Mar 2019 at 7:50:06PM PDT

    k***h( $237.00 8 Mar 2019 at 7:59:10PM PST

    a***b( $225.00 8 Mar 2019 at 7:10:41PM PST

    k***h( $222.00 8 Mar 2019 at 7:01:38PM PST

    a***b( $220.00 8 Mar 2019 at 7:10:32PM PST

    a***b( $215.00 8 Mar 2019 at 7:10:25PM PST

    a***b( $210.00 7 Mar 2019 at 6:28:11PM PST

    k***h( $207.00 8 Mar 2019 at 6:52:57PM PST

    s***i( $201.55 7 Mar 2019 at 8:18:59AM PST

    i***s( $200.00 7 Mar 2019 at 8:35:06AM PST

    i***s( $185.00 7 Mar 2019 at 8:34:59AM PST

    i***s( $170.00 5 Mar 2019 at 7:50:36PM PST

    k***h( $158.00 5 Mar 2019 at 10:42:50AM PST

    -***-( $155.00 4 Mar 2019 at 10:43:33PM PST

    e***8( $153.00 3 Mar 2019 at 10:41:39PM PST

    1***1( $150.00 3 Mar 2019 at 1:35:58AM PST

    Starting Price $150.00 3 Mar 2019 at 1:24:30AM PST


    Discussion truncated due to size. Please wait for subsequent posts.

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    They hadn't started here, either. I found multiple auctions with them pushing the card up over $200 when it was in the $220-$230 range.

    I know what you're thinking: "Maybe this guy is a horrible bidder and just really wants a Griffey Rated Rookie and keeps losing out."

    If you scroll back up you'll notice that the a***b (436) account actually (accidentally) won the auction in the second group of bidders in the list. What do you do if you're shilling and accidentally win AND you're not too smart? You turn right around and sell the card you won from your own account and out yourself.

    Seller information

    aireball1 (436 )

    100% Positive feedback

    1989 Donruss Ken Griffey Jr #33 Baseball Card Graded PSA 10 Gem Mint Rookie

    Top of Form

    Sold for:

    US $339.00

    $31 for 12 months

    Shipping:

    $4.06 Standard Shipping | See details

    Item location:

    El Dorado Hills, California, United States

    Now, there's only 4 auctions above. How much influence can those possibly have? The first tree to fall was actually a BIN of $299 from richsgoodsportsstuff on March 5. Our friend saw his opportunity. The next auction that came up he pushed to over $300 with the k***h account, although there were 3 others there in a frenzy as well. But after that? The BINs followed:

    $350+ ($419 B/O)
    $279
    $349
    $225
    $250
    $299
    $310
    $330
    $350

    Then finally an auction that, oops, he won at $323. Then another auction that he pushed to $333 and was the underbidder. Then back to the BINs:

    $339
    $330
    $340

    That's where we stand now. Incredible what just a little bit of work can produce. There was already buzz around the card about the $100 jump so it didn't take much for someone to seize the opportunity and push it even further. Seems like the market has accepted this new price point now, which is somewhat ridiculous based upon its causality. Shame, really. I'm not one of those super internet message board detectives but I know we have some here so maybe someone else can connect the dots on k***h and find out if it's two people working together on one person with two accounts trying to hide their tracts.

    Arthur

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Also, I should point out, VCP's info on buyers is absolutely useless. It's completely fabricated. Not only is it fabricated but they don't even match up for different listings when the same buyer won both. So take that info with a grain of salt moving forward.

    Arthur

  • remedylaneremedylane Posts: 132 ✭✭✭
    edited April 16, 2019 7:53AM

    Crazy. I bet this goes on more than anyone even realizes.

  • doubledragondoubledragon Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭

    You should have been a detective, crime would be at an all time low! Outstanding research. I just wish Ebay would take it more seriously. It's a crime, investigate it. People shouldn't be scammed for their hard earned money, especially people on a budget.

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Two more:

    Bidders: 8
    Bids: 13
    Time Ended: 14 Apr 2019 at 5:20:17PM PDT
    Duration: 7 days

    Bidder Bid Amount Bid Time
    r8(1793) $314.00 14 Apr 2019 at 5:20:07PM PDT
    k
    h( $309.00 14 Apr 2019 at 7:29:25AM PDT
    e8( $300.00 13 Apr 2019 at 7:33:37PM PDT
    k
    h( $291.45 10 Apr 2019 at 6:16:46PM PDT
    ab( $258.00 9 Apr 2019 at 9:31:57PM PDT
    e
    8( $250.00 7 Apr 2019 at 9:23:23PM PDT
    ab( $243.00 9 Apr 2019 at 9:31:08PM PDT
    n
    e( $228.00 9 Apr 2019 at 8:09:51PM PDT
    ug( $222.55 7 Apr 2019 at 8:54:16PM PDT
    u
    g( $202.55 7 Apr 2019 at 8:53:59PM PDT
    ab( $200.00 7 Apr 2019 at 8:32:53PM PDT
    4
    i( $110.50 7 Apr 2019 at 5:54:28PM PDT
    _***2( $10.00 7 Apr 2019 at 5:24:40PM PDT
    Starting Price $10.00 7 Apr 2019 at 5:20:17PM PDT

    Bidders: 7
    Bids: 10
    Time Ended: 14 Apr 2019 at 5:22:00PM PDT
    Duration: 7 days

    Bidder Bid Amount Bid Time
    e8(3322) $307.00 7 Apr 2019 at 9:23:12PM PDT
    k
    h( $302.00 10 Apr 2019 at 6:17:12PM PDT
    kh( $291.45 10 Apr 2019 at 6:17:07PM PDT
    a
    b( $256.00 9 Apr 2019 at 9:31:35PM PDT
    ab( $241.00 9 Apr 2019 at 9:31:26PM PDT
    n
    e( $226.00 9 Apr 2019 at 8:10:01PM PDT
    ta( $220.20 9 Apr 2019 at 10:59:25AM PDT
    a
    b( $200.00 7 Apr 2019 at 8:33:20PM PDT
    si( $115.00 7 Apr 2019 at 9:17:44PM PDT
    4
    i( $110.00 7 Apr 2019 at 5:53:52PM PDT
    Starting Price $10.00 7 Apr 2019 at 5:22:00PM PDT

    Arthur

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You'll notice the second legitimate bidder in the first auction ended up winning the second auction, at a cost of about $80 more than it would have if the two accounts hadn't propped the card up over $300.

    Arthur

  • akuracy503akuracy503 Posts: 1,896 ✭✭✭

    I was wondering why the Donruss Rated Rookie was so tough these days. Good catch. Eye opening to see this.

  • mtcardsmtcards Posts: 3,148 ✭✭✭

    I have seen this going on with multiple cards I bid on. Said card had been selling in PSA 9 in the $30 range and all of a sudden the same card by multiple buyers (Same PSA cert) sold in excess of $60-$90 inside of three weeks at auctions. It didnt take as now there are some for the usual $30 range not selling again. Sometimes the trick works, sometimes it doesnt

    IT IS ALWAYS CHEAPER TO NOT SELL ON EBAY
  • DotStoreDotStore Posts: 186 ✭✭✭

    This is very interesting. Is it possible a similar process was used to run up the 1993 SP Jeter? That card went nuts seemingly overnight. Now there is the knowledge of the HOF coming next year, but I'm just wondering if some folks were able to artificially manipulate the sudden rise in his rookie cards...

  • akuracy503akuracy503 Posts: 1,896 ✭✭✭

    It only takes a few people to do a run up. eBay is still a small market for specific cards. Cards are so low dollar it doesnt take much to manipulate it.
    I assume the cats not out of the bag yet and some people are buying into the spikes.
    I think every collector could use a bit of exposure to the investment markets like commodities. See how its manipulated and see the trends. It's all relative.

  • secretstashsecretstash Posts: 999 ✭✭✭
    edited April 16, 2019 1:54PM

    You should be working for "Q". B)

  • bouncebounce Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭

    Interesting stuff. Question - who is winning all the buy it nows? I'm not aware of a source to figure that part out.

    I definitely see what you're saying in the auctions, and it's not a good look that a***b turned around and listed it for sale for not enough considering the fees that would be taken.

    However, that's quite a number of buy it nows to suggest the price isn't maybe stable and real now? This card isn't all that expensive (certainly relative to other Griffeys), isn't it possible that someone has decided to build a stack on it for investment/tag along with the 89 Upper Deck prices?

    There's also the relative value theory considering total pops.

    I agree looks a little shady, but I don't think those auctions are the only source of pushing the price - the buy it nows are contributing and I find it pretty unlikely that's entirely shady unless there are a dozen other sellers involved in the scheme.

  • HighGradeLegendsHighGradeLegends Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭

    Call Ebay and report it

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bounce said:
    Interesting stuff. Question - who is winning all the buy it nows? I'm not aware of a source to figure that part out.

    I definitely see what you're saying in the auctions, and it's not a good look that a***b turned around and listed it for sale for not enough considering the fees that would be taken.

    However, that's quite a number of buy it nows to suggest the price isn't maybe stable and real now? This card isn't all that expensive (certainly relative to other Griffeys), isn't it possible that someone has decided to build a stack on it for investment/tag along with the 89 Upper Deck prices?

    There's also the relative value theory considering total pops.

    I agree looks a little shady, but I don't think those auctions are the only source of pushing the price - the buy it nows are contributing and I find it pretty unlikely that's entirely shady unless there are a dozen other sellers involved in the scheme.

    It would be helpful to see who is purchasing the BINs.

    I think there's some serious FOMO going on here with the legitimate buyers. There was already some built-in frenzy with the card as it jumped $100+ in a year (which this person helped prop up, as well). It was a lot like prospect hunting, in the sense that the buzz kept building and this person kept pumping it up. It's not hard to see that we'd still be in the $230 range if not for their bids. But people will pay what they believe others are paying. If they see auctions and BINs going for $320, they'll buy at that price point.

    I think a lot of people held off on this card as it made leaps and bounds, expecting it to fall back some, and it never did. Now they're grabbing at it like it's going to jump another $100 next week and they don't want to miss out.

    Arthur

  • doubledragondoubledragon Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭

    Ebay needs to have a seperate department solely for the purpose of investigating this stuff.

  • perkdogperkdog Posts: 18,548 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @doubledragon said:
    Ebay needs to have a seperate department solely for the purpose of investigating this stuff.

    Or just hire Arthur 🤷‍♂️

  • lawyer05lawyer05 Posts: 1,427 ✭✭✭

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    The 1989 Donruss Ken Griffey Jr Rated Rookie PSA 10 has seen great rises in price over the last year. For good reason, too. It's easily Griffey's most condition-sensitive rookie card and lowest population in PSA 10. Prices slowly climbed to the $220-$230 level and plateaued.

    But in the last 5 weeks we've seen the card go from that $230 range to more than $350 (a $419 B/O that hasn't registered on VCP yet), with most sales north of $300. After seeing more than a few $339 sales, I got curious and started looking at the bids. As you would imagine, there was what would appear to be a shilling profile, or at the very least a bad case of string bidding. Thing was, it was always the same two accounts:

    k * * * h (179)
    a * * * b (436)

    I'm not sure if this is two people working in conjunction or one person with two accounts but every single auction in the past 5 weeks for a PSA 10 '89 Donruss Griffey had at least one or both of these bidders string bid the card up to and over $300. For the most part, they were the only bidders higher than the $230 range with the exception of the person that ended up winning the auction.

    Bidders: 7
    Bids: 17
    Time Ended: 7 Apr 2019 at 8:31:27PM PDT
    Duration: 5 days

    Bidder Bid Amount Bid Time

    y***s(118) $333.00 5 Apr 2019 at 6:41:48PM PDT

    a***b( $328.00 6 Apr 2019 at 5:47:37PM PDT

    a***b( $318.00 6 Apr 2019 at 5:44:48PM PDT

    a***b( $308.00 3 Apr 2019 at 8:04:12PM PDT

    k***h( $302.47 3 Apr 2019 at 7:45:42PM PDT

    a***b( $300.00 3 Apr 2019 at 2:53:49PM PDT

    k***h( $290.00 3 Apr 2019 at 3:33:03PM PDT

    o***w( $275.00 2 Apr 2019 at 9:38:18PM PDT

    a***b( $270.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:50PM PDT

    a***b( $245.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:41PM PDT

    a***b( $230.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:36PM PDT

    a***b( $215.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:30PM PDT

    a***b( $200.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:22PM PDT

    e***8( $75.00 3 Apr 2019 at 3:14:50AM PDT

    8***6( $20.00 2 Apr 2019 at 9:11:24PM PDT

    s***i( $2.00 2 Apr 2019 at 9:30:18PM PDT

    8***6( $0.99 2 Apr 2019 at 9:03:01PM PDT

    Starting Price $0.99 2 Apr 2019 at 8:31:27PM PDT

    Bidders: 8
    Bids: 27
    Time Ended: 6 Apr 2019 at 7:15:37PM PDT
    Duration: 7 days

    Bidder Bid Amount Bid Time

    a***b(436) $323.00 6 Apr 2019 at 5:51:00PM PDT

    e***8( $321.00 6 Apr 2019 at 4:47:12PM PDT

    k***h( $312.48 6 Apr 2019 at 9:39:16AM PDT

    a***b( $308.00 3 Apr 2019 at 8:03:55PM PDT

    k***h( $302.47 3 Apr 2019 at 7:45:17PM PDT

    a***b( $300.00 3 Apr 2019 at 2:54:15PM PDT

    k***h( $285.00 3 Apr 2019 at 7:19:30AM PDT

    a***b( $280.00 2 Apr 2019 at 10:23:54AM PDT

    k***h( $255.00 1 Apr 2019 at 9:42:25PM PDT

    c***e( $250.00 2 Apr 2019 at 5:55:48AM PDT

    r***r( $245.00 1 Apr 2019 at 8:24:22AM PDT

    a***b( $240.00 31 Mar 2019 at 6:51:08AM PDT

    r***r( $217.00 1 Apr 2019 at 8:07:59AM PDT

    e***8( $200.00 31 Mar 2019 at 3:54:21PM PDT

    a***b( $164.00 30 Mar 2019 at 9:56:07PM PDT

    y***y( $159.00 31 Mar 2019 at 12:50:59PM PDT

    r***r( $154.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:17:39PM PDT

    a***b( $149.00 30 Mar 2019 at 9:55:58PM PDT

    s***i( $22.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:42:13PM PDT

    e***e( $21.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:19PM PDT

    e***e( $19.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:16PM PDT

    e***e( $16.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:13PM PDT

    e***e( $13.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:10PM PDT

    e***e( $11.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:08PM PDT

    e***e( $8.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:05PM PDT

    e***e( $5.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:02PM PDT

    e***e( $3.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:20:58PM PDT

    Starting Price $0.99 30 Mar 2019 at 7:15:37PM PDT


    Discussion truncated due to size. Please wait for subsequent posts.

    it could also mean two old men unaware of snipping and with a a lot of money

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lawyer05 said:

    @ReggieCleveland said:
    The 1989 Donruss Ken Griffey Jr Rated Rookie PSA 10 has seen great rises in price over the last year. For good reason, too. It's easily Griffey's most condition-sensitive rookie card and lowest population in PSA 10. Prices slowly climbed to the $220-$230 level and plateaued.

    But in the last 5 weeks we've seen the card go from that $230 range to more than $350 (a $419 B/O that hasn't registered on VCP yet), with most sales north of $300. After seeing more than a few $339 sales, I got curious and started looking at the bids. As you would imagine, there was what would appear to be a shilling profile, or at the very least a bad case of string bidding. Thing was, it was always the same two accounts:

    k * * * h (179)
    a * * * b (436)

    I'm not sure if this is two people working in conjunction or one person with two accounts but every single auction in the past 5 weeks for a PSA 10 '89 Donruss Griffey had at least one or both of these bidders string bid the card up to and over $300. For the most part, they were the only bidders higher than the $230 range with the exception of the person that ended up winning the auction.

    Bidders: 7
    Bids: 17
    Time Ended: 7 Apr 2019 at 8:31:27PM PDT
    Duration: 5 days

    Bidder Bid Amount Bid Time

    y***s(118) $333.00 5 Apr 2019 at 6:41:48PM PDT

    a***b( $328.00 6 Apr 2019 at 5:47:37PM PDT

    a***b( $318.00 6 Apr 2019 at 5:44:48PM PDT

    a***b( $308.00 3 Apr 2019 at 8:04:12PM PDT

    k***h( $302.47 3 Apr 2019 at 7:45:42PM PDT

    a***b( $300.00 3 Apr 2019 at 2:53:49PM PDT

    k***h( $290.00 3 Apr 2019 at 3:33:03PM PDT

    o***w( $275.00 2 Apr 2019 at 9:38:18PM PDT

    a***b( $270.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:50PM PDT

    a***b( $245.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:41PM PDT

    a***b( $230.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:36PM PDT

    a***b( $215.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:30PM PDT

    a***b( $200.00 3 Apr 2019 at 12:31:22PM PDT

    e***8( $75.00 3 Apr 2019 at 3:14:50AM PDT

    8***6( $20.00 2 Apr 2019 at 9:11:24PM PDT

    s***i( $2.00 2 Apr 2019 at 9:30:18PM PDT

    8***6( $0.99 2 Apr 2019 at 9:03:01PM PDT

    Starting Price $0.99 2 Apr 2019 at 8:31:27PM PDT

    Bidders: 8
    Bids: 27
    Time Ended: 6 Apr 2019 at 7:15:37PM PDT
    Duration: 7 days

    Bidder Bid Amount Bid Time

    a***b(436) $323.00 6 Apr 2019 at 5:51:00PM PDT

    e***8( $321.00 6 Apr 2019 at 4:47:12PM PDT

    k***h( $312.48 6 Apr 2019 at 9:39:16AM PDT

    a***b( $308.00 3 Apr 2019 at 8:03:55PM PDT

    k***h( $302.47 3 Apr 2019 at 7:45:17PM PDT

    a***b( $300.00 3 Apr 2019 at 2:54:15PM PDT

    k***h( $285.00 3 Apr 2019 at 7:19:30AM PDT

    a***b( $280.00 2 Apr 2019 at 10:23:54AM PDT

    k***h( $255.00 1 Apr 2019 at 9:42:25PM PDT

    c***e( $250.00 2 Apr 2019 at 5:55:48AM PDT

    r***r( $245.00 1 Apr 2019 at 8:24:22AM PDT

    a***b( $240.00 31 Mar 2019 at 6:51:08AM PDT

    r***r( $217.00 1 Apr 2019 at 8:07:59AM PDT

    e***8( $200.00 31 Mar 2019 at 3:54:21PM PDT

    a***b( $164.00 30 Mar 2019 at 9:56:07PM PDT

    y***y( $159.00 31 Mar 2019 at 12:50:59PM PDT

    r***r( $154.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:17:39PM PDT

    a***b( $149.00 30 Mar 2019 at 9:55:58PM PDT

    s***i( $22.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:42:13PM PDT

    e***e( $21.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:19PM PDT

    e***e( $19.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:16PM PDT

    e***e( $16.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:13PM PDT

    e***e( $13.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:10PM PDT

    e***e( $11.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:08PM PDT

    e***e( $8.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:05PM PDT

    e***e( $5.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:21:02PM PDT

    e***e( $3.00 30 Mar 2019 at 8:20:58PM PDT

    Starting Price $0.99 30 Mar 2019 at 7:15:37PM PDT


    Discussion truncated due to size. Please wait for subsequent posts.

    it could also mean two old men unaware of snipping and with a a lot of money

    But then immediately turn around and sell the card when you finally win it and then continue to bid after you sold the one you won?

    Arthur

  • tulsaboytulsaboy Posts: 64 ✭✭

    I don't get why those same folks don't just buy themselves 300 bucks worth of 1989 Donruss wax/rack/cello and go on a hunt themselves. Would lower the population of those unopeneds, would be a hoot and a half to search, and would probably eventually find a good one.

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @tulsaboy said:
    I don't get why those same folks don't just buy themselves 300 bucks worth of 1989 Donruss wax/rack/cello and go on a hunt themselves. Would lower the population of those unopeneds, would be a hoot and a half to search, and would probably eventually find a good one.

    You obviously haven't opened much '89 Donruss. The Griffey is legitimately condition-sensitive and odds of finding a PSA 10 are slim.

    Arthur

  • lawyer05lawyer05 Posts: 1,427 ✭✭✭

    Discussion truncated due to size. Please wait for subsequent posts.

    it could also mean two old men unaware of snipping and with a a lot of money

    But then immediately turn around and sell the card when you finally win it and then continue to bid after you sold the one you won?

    Arthur

    you obviously have not been tracking PWCC auctions.......
    its the same.....

  • olb31olb31 Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭

    @lawyer05 said:

    Discussion truncated due to size. Please wait for subsequent posts.

    it could also mean two old men unaware of snipping and with a a lot of money

    But then immediately turn around and sell the card when you finally win it and then continue to bid after you sold the one you won?

    Arthur

    you obviously have not been tracking PWCC auctions.......
    its the same.....

    You are not allowed to say this outloud!!!!! LOL!!!

    Work hard and you will succeed!!
  • 1989 Donruss had a production number in the millions. It had to be greater that UD, which was 2 million that year.

    PSA has graded about 28,000 Griffey's, not even 1% of the production.

    Given standard distribution and assuming the population of 10's isn't completely contrived, there should be at least 20,000 to 30,000 1989 Donruss Griffeys that qualify as a "10". And common sense tells you that even if you forget standard distribution, there are 10,000+ of the card that should qualify as a "10".

    I see this mistake here all the time. PSA has rarely graded even a fraction of what exists out there - FOR ANY CARD!!!! Take something like 1984 Fleer Update with a production run of 10,000 - they have graded about half the production of Clemens, 40% of the Puckett's and under 20% of the Gooden's.

    (shakes head)

    I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.

  • CARDSANDCOINSCARDSANDCOINS Posts: 294 ✭✭✭

    His psa 10 1987 bellingham has jumped from $250 to $350

  • LarkinCollectorLarkinCollector Posts: 6,310 ✭✭✭✭✭

    That seems to be assuming that every Griffey is worth submitting, when in reality it only makes sense to submit if you're expecting at least a 9 at current pricing. I'm sure I've got a dozen of the Donruss Griffey RCs around here and not one worth submitting. There is a reason PSA has only graded a fraction of what exists, most are a $ loser if submitted.

  • rcmb3220rcmb3220 Posts: 761 ✭✭✭

    @tulsaboy said:
    I don't get why those same folks don't just buy themselves 300 bucks worth of 1989 Donruss wax/rack/cello and go on a hunt themselves. Would lower the population of those unopeneds, would be a hoot and a half to search, and would probably eventually find a good one.

    I bought a wax case for $90 and submitted the best one out of 16. I thought it was a 9 and it came back an 8. Spending $210 more dollars would have the same results most likely.

    Dane

  • VintagemanEdVintagemanEd Posts: 760 ✭✭✭

    The talk about how many Griffey’s have been graded compared to the print run could work the other way also. Since less than 1% have been graded that could be seen as how tough they are to get in top grade and push values even higher

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @LarkinCollector said:
    That seems to be assuming that every Griffey is worth submitting, when in reality it only makes sense to submit if you're expecting at least a 9 at current pricing. I'm sure I've got a dozen of the Donruss Griffey RCs around here and not one worth submitting. There is a reason PSA has only graded a fraction of what exists, most are a $ loser if submitted.

    Thanks. I was typing this up in my head before I even got to your post.

    Folks, people don't submit every copy of every card they find. I would even take it a step further than Kyle and say that because for so many years this was $50 in PSA 10, most didn't submit a card unless they thought it had a shot at a 10, forget a 9. That's a gargantuan amount of Griffeys out there that are fugly.

    Dane, don't feel bad. I've gone through two cases and my best Griffey was a PSA 8, too. And I didn't get no $90 cases, either. :(

    Arthur

  • ahopkinsahopkins Posts: 722 ✭✭✭✭

    If not for the tiny nick on the right edge, this one would be submittable. I didn't buy it for submission, though. I bought it for the Greenwell. It just happened to have a Griffey on top, too. B)

    Andy

  • lawyer05lawyer05 Posts: 1,427 ✭✭✭

    @olb31 said:

    @lawyer05 said:

    Discussion truncated due to size. Please wait for subsequent posts.

    it could also mean two old men unaware of snipping and with a a lot of money

    But then immediately turn around and sell the card when you finally win it and then continue to bid after you sold the one you won?

    Arthur

    you obviously have not been tracking PWCC auctions.......
    its the same.....

    You are not allowed to say this outloud!!!!! LOL!!!

    lol

  • bbcemporiumbbcemporium Posts: 684 ✭✭✭

    Arthur, thanks for the info. I guess it's time to review this stack...

    Registry Sets

    "Common sense is the best distributed commodity in the world, for every man is convinced that he is well supplied with it"
  • lawyer05lawyer05 Posts: 1,427 ✭✭✭

    @bbcemporium said:
    Arthur, thanks for the info. I guess it's time to review this stack...

    from here .. al 8 and 7's :D :D
    im joking !!!!!!!!

  • bouncebounce Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭

    @Jimmy_Commonpants said:
    PSA has graded about 28,000 Griffey's, not even 1% of the production.
    Given standard distribution...
    I see this mistake here all the time...
    (shakes head)

    Your math doesn't work, mostly because of what LarkinCollector noted - they all aren't worth submitting.

    I suspect a closer "estimate" of potential 10s would follow this line of thinking:
    1) How much of this stuff has already been opened?
    I know there's still plenty that hasn't been, but wouldn't something north of 50% probably be a fair assumption? Makes the math easier to say 50%, so let's go with that (even though I think it's more than that already open).
    2) How much of what has already been opened has NOT been submitted yet?
    I think even we assume it's MOST hasn't been, the existing pops are good indication of why. Let's shoot high and say 75% has NOT made it to grading stage yet and will be (even though I think this is also high, probably really high to be honest).
    3) How much of the remaining UNOPENED would be worthy of submission?
    I don't see any reason why these would NOT follow existing pops, so success rate on 10s is 5.25% (1,491 / 28,380), although if we assume people get "smarter" about the submissions that percentage should trend up some.

    Let's TRIPLE the Upper Deck estimate of 2M to 6M production.

    I think this math works, I'm sure someone will check me and I reserve the right to alter my post if I've really screwed this up. :)

    6,000,000 production x 50% opened x 1% worthy of submission = 30,000 cards
    That's roughly current PSA pop. Maybe a coincidence, I certainly wasn't trying to make that work out?
    BGS obviously has some (12.5k total pop, 9.5/10 ratio is similar to PSA 10), I'm sure SGC probably has some as well but I'm tired of doing internet searches at the moment, let's just call the final ratio 1.5 to account for "crossover candidates".

    Assume 25% of what is already open has been sent in, multiply existing 10s by 4 to estimate total out of pack that would grade out.
    1,491 x 4 = 5,964
    I think 25% of what's already opened being sent in is low, If it's closer to 75%:
    1,491 / 75% = 1,988

    50% is still to open, so multiply by 2 = 11,928 POSSIBLE 10s
    If 25% submission is actually low (and I think it is), I think this number declines roughly 30 for every percentage point it's too low.
    Unless you think more of the open is already subbed, then it's only 3,976

    And in terms of playing the bust and submit lottery - these things run @ $10 a box I think (?), if we round up to say it's 1 Griffey per box...
    1% worth submitting x 5.25% of hitting a 10 = 0.0525% probability
    100% required to guarantee a 10 / 0.0525% probability = 1,904.762 boxes

    (shakes head from headache from all the "maths")

    IDK - $300 seems like a pretty good deal to me?

  • Bounce,

    The poster above posted a picture with dozens of raw ones which look fine! There are millions of this card in "mint condition".

    Further, everyone and their brother bought this card in the 1990's for a fraction of the ridiculous ebay price. I imagine the only people buying it for $300 are trying to play other people, they aren't serious collectors. No serious collector would fall for this "low population" silliness and pay $300 for a card they bought for $10 or less 25 years ago in the HEIGHT of the market(in the July 1995 Beckett, it booked for $5). There isn't a dime's worth of difference between a "9" and a "10" for modern cards imo, and its a fool's errand to "collect" like this and expect everyone else to see these prices as legitimate when the same card can be bought for a fraction of the alleged "PSA 10" sold price.

    This card is neither rare, nor in high demand. There are hundreds for sale right now across the internet, in card stores and at shows. Its a shame that this hobby has essentially been relegated to trying to convince naive and gullible people something is rare and special when it is neither. TPG has a very important purpose in this hobby. But the people in the market who have created this ridiculous "collect the grade, not the player" concept/mindset have ruined this hobby imo. Being out of it from 1996 to 2016, I had NO IDEA how prevalent this had become. Its fascinating, considering TPG was not well-received in my neck of the woods in the late 1990's when the market crashed the first time. Now, people are collecting a card of a guy they never heard of in some cases(vintage commons), solely because of a grade. Again, fascinating!

    I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,060 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Jimmy_Commonpants

    I am almost positive I read you say one time you had never submitted a card to a third party grader. Is this correct?

  • ndleondleo Posts: 2,997 ✭✭✭

    Grading has a positive for the hobby. There is no denying that. The hobby has thrived in the internet era because grading helped facilitate the market. Any asset class gets a premium for that. Having the ability to easily convert my cards to cash gives me the confidence to spend decent $$ on cards.

    Mike
  • bbcemporiumbbcemporium Posts: 684 ✭✭✭

    Jimmy Commonpants - thank you for defining for the rest of us what a serious collector is. Also, out of all those cards, I found about 5-6 that were worth submitting.

    Registry Sets

    "Common sense is the best distributed commodity in the world, for every man is convinced that he is well supplied with it"
  • bouncebounce Posts: 1,084 ✭✭✭

    @Jimmy_Commonpants said:
    Bounce,

    The poster above posted a picture with dozens of raw ones which look fine! There are millions of this card in "mint condition".

    I can tell from that scan that most of those aren't worth submitting.

    Majority will disqualify due to centering. Top card is a great example of what is common with this issue - it's left, and thus not worthy of submission. I can also see "touch" on corners of several in that stack - those are all out, and we can only see half the corners. However many we can see, eliminate at least that many more for the corners we can't see. There's also some common printing flaws in how the color flows across the card, as well as a host of other issues. It goes on and on with card, because the card stock was cheap and flimsy and there was basically zero effort to quality control.

    As common as the card may be, it's not that common in high grade. Might be tens/hundreds of thousands of 8s and 9s, but not 10s.

  • RoflesRofles Posts: 209 ✭✭✭

    @Jimmy_Commonpants said:
    Bounce,

    The poster above posted a picture with dozens of raw ones which look fine! There are millions of this card in "mint condition".

    Further, everyone and their brother bought this card in the 1990's for a fraction of the ridiculous ebay price. I imagine the only people buying it for $300 are trying to play other people, they aren't serious collectors. No serious collector would fall for this "low population" silliness and pay $300 for a card they bought for $10 or less 25 years ago in the HEIGHT of the market(in the July 1995 Beckett, it booked for $5). There isn't a dime's worth of difference between a "9" and a "10" for modern cards imo, and its a fool's errand to "collect" like this and expect everyone else to see these prices as legitimate when the same card can be bought for a fraction of the alleged "PSA 10" sold price.

    This card is neither rare, nor in high demand. There are hundreds for sale right now across the internet, in card stores and at shows. Its a shame that this hobby has essentially been relegated to trying to convince naive and gullible people something is rare and special when it is neither. TPG has a very important purpose in this hobby. But the people in the market who have created this ridiculous "collect the grade, not the player" concept/mindset have ruined this hobby imo. Being out of it from 1996 to 2016, I had NO IDEA how prevalent this had become. Its fascinating, considering TPG was not well-received in my neck of the woods in the late 1990's when the market crashed the first time. Now, people are collecting a card of a guy they never heard of in some cases(vintage commons), solely because of a grade. Again, fascinating!

    What about my mint condition Alex Madrid error card? You mean it’s not worth 10-30k? 😂

    Just echoing your comment here as far as naivety is concerned, as someone who’s just a few months back into collecting again!

  • ReggieClevelandReggieCleveland Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Man 1 develops multiple theories based on numerical data, allowing for variations in both directions in case of logical guesstimations. Man 1 concludes with hard numbers and possibilities for others to either replicate or expound on.

    Man 2 disputes all of Man 1's work because someone posted a picture of cards on their desk.

    [/metaphor]

    Arthur

  • LarkinCollectorLarkinCollector Posts: 6,310 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I was anti-graded when I first came back to the hobby too (early 2011ish?) , specifically excluding PSA/BGS/SGC from my searches. You'll eventually learn, if selling, you're leaving potentially hundreds/thousands on the table, if buying, you're competing against those who will bid up great looking cards to submit. You're left with winning a lot of OK condition (NM-NMMT) modern cards at prices you're comfortable with, altered vintage stars and most pre-war (or you pay more than you could get it for already graded), and a few decent hits. If that makes you happy, I'm not here to tell you how you should collect, and more power to you. However, I expect the same in return.

  • Dpeck100Dpeck100 Posts: 10,060 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Jimmy you are killing me. I am baffled that you post this stuff on a board where people own thousands of graded cards.

    You are the most uninformed collector that posts on here yet feel like the most informed.

    Please get some cards graded before you throw that info at us. I am not trying to speak for anyone but me but it is awful that you try and lecture collectors that feel strongly about buying cards that have been graded and provide zero value.

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