1986 Fleer Basketball
ElvisP
Posts: 1,066 ✭✭✭
This set and in particular the Jordan RC still seems to be plummeting. A recent PWCC Jordan PSA 10 sold for a "mere" $28k. A recent BBCE wax box sold for a "mere" $54k in Collect Auctions. What did these sell for at their peak? Is the Jordan PSA 10 a bargain now for under $30k?
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Actually, it's quite the opposite... That $28k sale is the highest PSA 10 sale in 6 months, according to VCP... During that time, there were even a few sales under $20k... The two most recent are $26,600, and the one you mentioned for $28k.
DesertIceSports.Com
You may be right about the trend. The 2 before the PWCC one went for $16k and $18k. One on March 4 sold for $13.5k. Maybe it has bottomed out. Didn't it go above 40k at one time? Didn't boxes get up to $90k or so?
When it comes to BBCE box prices, it comes down to the details and specifics of each box. Wax box vs. 36 pack box, Letter vs. No-Letter, etc.
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
I went to PSA completed auctions and could find only one sell for a PSA 10 Jordan over $40k. Looks like it actually started trending down toward the end of 2016. Since then there have been more sells under $20k than above $20k. I think the $28k was too high but that can be attributed to it being a PWCC auction.
I agree.
A "put together" box may have 1 to zero Jordans in it.
Even if I could afford a box, and wanted it? I wouldn't buy 1 unless it came from a sealed case - which today would be hard to do.
Just wouldn't want to take the chance with a "Frankenstein" box unless it was bought for future appreciation.
I believe these pics are from last year's National?
edit: here's the letter that was inside the cabinet - could this be from 2017 national? Anyone remember?
"A "put together" box may have 1 to zero Jordans in it."
I know there are some sets where you can open 1-2 packs and tell the run for the whole box... Is that true with '86 Fleer?? If not, that 'put together' box could just as easily have 5-6 Jordans as zero... As long as the packs are unopened, the odds can go either way.
DesertIceSports.Com
Very good question Brad.
I was speculating on the negative side. Have no idea on collation.
You could be right and someone could score.
When paying that kind of dough? Let's say ya get 4 Jordans and all 4 wind up with 9 - I'm guessing a 10 would be tough to come by?
Would be hard to recoup 75K?
I usually don't get into "if'ns since I rarely know what I'm talking about.
"Would be hard to recoup 75K?
Would be REALLY hard, especially considering the centering issues that are typical with the Jordan... A couple of those come back as 7s and 8s and you're screwed... You still have all the other cards and the stickers, but if you don't score with the Jordans, you need to be insanely lucky with all the rest.
I think the box prices are more for speculators... They buy and hold instead of ripping them... But, if someday you feel the desire to lose $30k, by all means, rip a box of '86 Fleer.
DesertIceSports.Com
PSA 9’s have been trending around 5K
It is my understanding that it is. I can't 100% confirm this since I don't have experience opening boxes/cases of it, but its very common in sets that small and I have read conversations where people indicated they knew they hadn't hit a Jordan by the first card they saw in the pack when opened.
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
Back in February, a Jordan metal universe green went for over $300k.
I'm someone who has been upgrading my 86 set for the past couple of years. The set goes in cycles especially with particular cards. I've seen decent upticks in pricing recently with PSA 9 & 10's with Patrick Ewing , Akeem Olajuwan and James Worthy. I've also seen huge increases in pricing with Maurice Lucas, Johnny Moore and Steve Johnson's in PSA 9's. Another thing that will drive the price up or down is the centering on these cards. You really can't truly gauge pricing because each card in a 9 is not apples to apples. The centered cards will go for a premium in 9's and 10's
@Stone193 I purchased the 86-87 Fleer Box with the Jordan on top from Steve via text during the 2017 National. I didn't pay $75k because Steve took care of me.
He also sold me the cardboard 86-87 Fleer case that the actual box was found in. It makes an impressive package if and when I ever decide to sell it. My intent is not to recoup the investment based on opening the packs, but on the rarity and story behind the box/case itself.
One day, I hope it becomes a six figure box. Who knows.
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
Regarding the photo of the letter above from BBCE - does anyone know what "Each box was inspected on the sport for sticker counts and verification of collation patterns" means?
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
that story about the purchase of the boxes is giving me a special feeling.
The collation of this set is well known. There should be a certain number of each sticker showing on the back of the packs. Short of finding a sealed case (which he had an offer of $1k just to see one at one point) and labeling boxes 'FASC', this is Steve's way of saying it's as close to FASC as you can possibly find.
I'm confused. I though these were sealed boxes from a case? How did they verify this without unsealing the boxes? Were the boxes not actually sealed in the case, and that is THEIR wrapper/seal?
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
Fleer didn't wrap any of these boxes, I don't think any of the companies did until 92/93ish? Yes, the wrapper has the BBCE logo and name on it.
The stickers were on the back of each pack. There were 11 stickers...so each box should have 2-3 of each sticker. Also, the card on the front of the pack is able to be seen through the wrapper. This means that anyone with any knowledge of the sequencing of the cards would very easily be able to search through a box and pull any packs with a Jordan.
Long story short.......no one should ever buy a loose pack of 86 Fleer basketball
Ok, that's kind of what I thought, that boxes weren't sealed until the 90's. I don't remember when everyone started. I think Leaf was wrapping them in 1990 as I've bought a box.
I actively collect Kirby Puckett. I have collections of Michael Jordan, Emmitt Smith, Roberto Clemente, Dwight Gooden, Tom Seaver, Errict Rhett and Evan Longoria.
I have opened a PSA 8 pack before and pulled a Jordan in the 3rd card. It was graded an 8.5 by PSA. There also are mid pack flips within these wax packs. You can have fairly high expectations within a pack, but it is not always an exact science even with Fleer's coalition.
It is still one of the best cards of all time. I see future growth, with some ups and downs like the stock market, over the years. Many other Rookie cards and HOFERS from the set should see growth as well. The stickers are even tougher to get in top condition and are for the most part cheaper than the regular cards.
I have two packs. The Bird one should have a Barkley as well, however no Jordan. The other has the Jordan sticker, however I have no clue who is on top so no sequence to review. Yes, it is a major gamble to buy a single pack, however one can get lucky.
What an awesome set and it does have its peculiarities. To answer your questions- You can’t tell the run of the box by opening a couple packs. You can tell th cards in a pack by knowing the top card which you can see roughly 25% of the time the back sticker is useless for collation but you can see it close to 100% of the time.
You also get a predictable range of Jordan and every other card too in a box, never 0 and never 5. They go in the run of the sheet by alphabetic order actually with the stickers covered nicely earlier with 2 or 3 per box.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
here are few of my favorite unopened star showing packs in my effort to collect all the “Rookie” showing packs. Any guess as to which pack is the most valued?
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Definitely the Bill Laimbeer pack!
Great packs, BTW.
The Laimbeer pack by far...planning to crack it for the Jordan? Sweet pack!
Is there guaranteed to be an MJ in there?
80% chance or better since the coalition would have Jordan as the 8th card I believe. If there is a mid pack flip it won't, however.
Cross-posted in another thread. I also have a 86 Fleer PSA 8 Pack with Jordan RC on Top, but no scan available to post right now.
IG: goatcollectibles23
The biggest lesson I've learned in this hobby, and in life, is that if you have a strong conviction, you owe it to yourself to see it through. Don't sell yourself, or your investments, short. Unless the facts change. Then sell it all.
Yes I figured someone would pick the Jordan sticker pack, but of course the Laimbeer top pack is by far the most valuable pack. With collation on the sheet it’s approaching 100% probability it co gains a Jordan, the standard in card flip sequence is roughly 90%/10% not taking into accountability the sheet placements though.
Now the interesting question is would you rather have a Jordan Top pack or the Laimbeer top pack? If I were going to crack and grade I’d of course take the Laimbeer.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
rtimmer....... Impressive 86 fleer pack run you have especially with all those packs with Sir Charles showing. My question Do you think there's a small chance that the Laimbeer pack does not have the Jordan in it? Only because of the sequencing flip that happens from time to time in a given pack?
Very intellligent question! At least I had the same one myself before buying the pack
Yes, The packs do tend to flip sequence about 10% of the time, but that happens when you hit the end of a row on the sheet during your sequence. The sheets are 11 cards by 12 rows. If you looks at the sheet you will see Laimbeer thru Jordan is in the same row. The nice thing about 86 fleer is that it is so reliable in its sequencing I’d almost rather have a Laimbeer-Kellogg top pack than a Jordan Top... well maybe but definitely if I were going to open it and grade the Jordan.
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies